Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Schnappi@5590,
My mind suggests to me that as soon as the Navy hove off out of sight after decanting the petrol, what was left in the tanks would be set alight by the asylum seekers, don’t you think? Or they could simply take an axe out and start swinging at the hull of the boat. Then what would Tony order the Navy to do?
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:11 pm
CanJoh now cancelling statue in honour of Brisbane’s Mud Army that helped out flooded households and businesses.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/questnews/north/mud-doesnt-stick-on-plan-to-honour-flood-helpers-as-campbell-newman-rejects-funding-mud-army-statue-promised-by-anna-bligh/story-fn8m0rl4-1226418749265
by middle man on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:12 pm
zoidlord
Someone else who sees the direction in which this case is likely to go
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Mexican
The rates on the home may be $1500- $2500, insurance $1500, Electricity $2000, After food and petrol, does not leave too much for travel
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:12 pm
I asked Bickford if Alan Joyce wrote their standard reply, adding that they certainly know how to alienate a number of long-time customers and suggested that they take the lead from Brumby’s.
by Sohar on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Labor prefs to FF
____________
No surprise..they may be anti-gay and climate deniers but that no ipediment to the FIXERS in the Vic ALP
ask Fenney..or better still ask Psephos !
In 2004 they Prefd Fielding of FF instead of the Greens in the Senate and gave him a seat and he was an absolute reaqctionary with religious nutter ideas
Still who expects any display of principal from the ALP warlords ?
by deblonay on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Mex Beemer
basically being poor is the state of not being able to properly pay your bills and to put food on the table
With respect, this shows you have NFI.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Psyclaw Okay what is your description of being poor?
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:14 pm
I should add that I was being simplistic
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Deb
I think the Victorian ALP should be renamed the Victorin DLP. Can see little difference
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:15 pm
poroti@5595,
What if the asylum seekers refuse to go back to Indo when directed to do so? They just have to idle the motor until the petrol is used up. Then what? I guess Abbott tells the Navy & the SAS, who were on Howard’s boats, to shoot across the bows of the asylum seeker boat. Then what if that doesn’t work to deter them?
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:15 pm
victoria – hope shellbell is sitting up near the heatbox of Puffing Billy (I just love that ride).
ddt – now I know where you’re coming from and I do sympathise with the stress you have with a small business. Like Mexican Beemer I think there could be more Govt. subsidies. Have you contacted Brendan O’Connor’s office or the nearest Labor pollie to see that you are getting all you are entitled to.
I thought that if the business wasn’t making sufficient for living expenses that there was some help from Centrelink.
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Sohar@5604,
Sounds more like Alan Jones wrote it to me.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Tony Abbott runs away from #asktony after about an hour’s worth of questions and not many answers.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Mexican
Not being able to afford the dentist or having to go to second rate doctors because they bulk bill?
Being rung by the bank 5 times in a day to discuss the account
Threats of foreclosure
Bailiffs bills
Not joining clubs etc or attending functions cos you have not got $10-25.
Electricity, phone or water cut off because of non payment
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:18 pm
@C@tmomma
Abbott would probably let them die, and shrug and say “Well it’s their own fault”.
Although he is a coward, so he’d probably only do it once before the international outrage forces him to change policy.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Hey I got an answer from #asktony
“@HenryIXL Adm Barrie confirmed that it had been successfully done before. What was done before can be done again, where safe #asktony”
In response to this question from me;
“Cmdr Barrie has rejected your tow back policy on boats. Response? #asktony”
in other monkey man did not answer the question.
Pathetic!!
by Henry on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:21 pm
We won’t be seeing this in the Daily Smelly or the Oz -
http://news.defence.gov.au/2012/07/04/chief-of-army-letter-to-the-editor-in-relation-to-an-article-by-ian-mcphedran/
Ian McPhedran is the Sydney based national defence writer for News Limited.
This is the story he wrote.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/death-of-true-warrior-sergeant-blaine-diddams/story-fndo3ewo-1226416126886
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:21 pm
“In other words”
by Henry on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Von Kirsdarke,
And the Bogans would love him for it. Safe as they are in their comfortable, middle class homes, watching it all on the TV, in between episodes of ‘The Shire’.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Righty-o then: not 254 doors per day since 1969 by 25.4 — every day. Only an order of magnitude out.
So the Libs have Federal leader who says that we should assume he’s making stuff up unless we have it in writing as one of those “gospel” “blood oath” thingies and a would be candidate-billionaire who says we should discount his claims by 90%. Perhaps we should call this the Clive Palmer BullCrap Gap.
Usage Note: Given the feedback, I thought I’d give the PB folks a break with fewer syllables per word.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:22 pm
C@tmomma
Well bet abbott drowns cats, so people can drown just as easy. out of sight,out of abbotts mind.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Although if Abbott ordered the Navy not to intervene, they would ignore him and obey international maritime law and rescue them. Abbott can bitch at them all he wants, they’re not following illegal callous orders.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
@RateCity: New #RateCity study: 1 yr since exit fee ban, surprising findings of lenders dropping upfront fees http://t.co/ayVyp964
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Correct me if i am wrong but I thought only parliaments can instruct the defense forces into conflict, not just the govt of the day?
by Henry on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Are the Greens second preferencing Labor in the by election?
by BH on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
mexicanbeemer
The picture you paint for me is a pensioner who has retired to the Gold Coast with the maximum allowable investments, possibly bolstered by some Super.
by lizzie on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Daretotread – Correct, those situations are in line with what I was saying would equate a person as being poor, there is a different between the people in the situation that you describe and those people that are able to do the things I said in outlining they are not poor.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Fewer sentences would be even better fran.
by Henry on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:24 pm
BH
I hope the greens a putting labor ahead of FF.
by daretotread on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:26 pm
BH – I expect they will go through a few far left & Indie candidates first, whoever is preferencing the Greens ahead of Labor.
by Leroy on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:28 pm
More evidence that the carbon price is destroying the economy.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/stronger-dollar-hits-new-high-against-euro-20120706-21kq4.html
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Mex Beemer.
Many families can fund the two things you mentioned and have SFA left over.
They can’t afford such things as school excursions, dentists, decent housing, holidays, eating out, and they often have to ration their use of utilities. In addition their kids are unable to do extra curric activities, their house maintenance is neglected, they can’t insure their house or car (if they have one), they can’t afford unexpected vicissitudes (washer breaks down) and they never experience “getting ahead” by having even a modicum of savings. etc etc.
These are just a few egs.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:29 pm
It is a serious business for the uniforms to refuse to obey orders. It can be called mutiny. Charges can be laid. Even if cleared, careers can be ruined.
That is quite apart from the utter stupidity of the civilians putting the uniforms in untenable positions.
Our democracy depends on the uniforms doing what they are told. In turn, the uniforms have tje right to be told to do proper things, not illegal things.
Mr Abbott is the ultimate sleazoid in all this. Nothing is sacred. Everything is grist to the mill of his sociopathy.
The Coaltion would be mad to give him the Prime Ministership…
oh…wait.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Think I would clas poor people as those homeleas or living in boarding houses,with no hope of getting out of a rut.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:30 pm
by Son of foro on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:30 pm
From the ABC story on Brumby’s:
In other words,
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:31 pm
FB @5620
I know it’s hard, but just write simple and don’t bother to announce it.
Of course I do appreciate that actually doing things is not a Green forte.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:32 pm
Fake KRudd offered a guest tweeter spot on Lateline.
http://turnleft2013.wordpress.com/2012/07/06/you-know-its-your-abc-when-parody-politicians-make-more-sense-than-lateline/
Read the comments – I particularly enjoyed this one.
by leone on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:34 pm
C@tmomma @ 5551
Your entire letter was GOLD. The shallowness of their position is also demonstrated by the fact that they didn’t complain about the far higher electricity price rises that have occurred in recent years.
by CO on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Spent time in a fairly large Stocklands centre today. People absolutely all over the place spending money.
The carbon price is so obviously a great handicap to the throngs.
by psyclaw on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:34 pm
psyclaw – Yep and and we are totally in agreement, There is no disputing any of that. as Lizzie rightly points out that, when I said most pensioners were not poor, I am referring to those that can as Lizzie puts it, are able to retire to the Gold Coast.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Victoria
Chilly up here but no wind. kids had a blast.
by shellbell on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:37 pm
What utter bullshit, DTT!
1. You appear to know squat about the OAP & benefits, or single parent pensions & other benefit levels, or family allowances and who qualifies for them – especially pension + family allowances for single parents who can’t hold down a full time job & those unable to work at all.
How many times do I have to say I’m an OAP, and post the current pension’s value for those facts to sink in?
BTW, most single parents whose annual earnings are under the Social Services’ cut-off point (c$80,000pa single) receive family benefit payments. Those who have young children & don’t work, or are unable to work either part-time or at all, receive the pension + allowances + the family benefit allowance
2. Locally grown produce, especially meat, fruit & vegetables, locally processed products and home-made products in local farmers markets and stores are way better and usually cheaper than Coles’/Woolies’. Buying locally benefits local economies and industries, keeps farmers afloat in hard times, and the profits enhance locals’ incomes.
3. “Designer” coffees and teas are grown and processed in Australia from crops grown mainly on the Atherton Tableland; the “dessert” lines using spices, also grown mainly on the Atherton Tableland (though Ginger’s from Buderim) and Australian wines and liqueurs. This is also the case for local “designer” nuts (mainly macadamias, pecans, peanuts), olives, wines, fruit and jams, vegetables and pickles. This is a farming area; it grows most produce (except rice).
4. Buying local produce and products not only helps local small businesses and keeps the local, State & Australian economies ticking over, it also increases the GDP & Tax revenues and lessens the trade deficit.
All of which you’d know if you bothered to check your facts before going into aggressively totally dumb Tory troll mode.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:37 pm
From Climate Spectator*
Good news: the carbon price is hurting coal power stations
see also a round up of the latest developments in renewables in Australia
Interesting note — the Jamestown windfarm in SA is said to be likely to abate about 1.25m tCO2 per annum. Its installed cost will be about $315m. Leaving aside recurrent cost (including interest) and assuming an economic lifetime of 25 years, that means abatement of $30mtCO2e costs $900m or about $30 per ton abated. To me, that sounds pretty good even if we forget about “the long tail” of CO2.
* a News Ltd title since Alan Kohler sold it, but at this stage, still quite good.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:38 pm
mexicanbeemer,
These are part-pensioners/self-funded retirees. Those of us who rely solely on the aged pension, for instance, are a lot better off since Labor increased the pension but we still have to look twice at every dollar before we part with it. I shop at Op shops for clothing etc and haunt the supermarkets for food marked down because the use-by date has arrived or will arrive tomorrow.
Having said that I consider myself very lucky because No.1 son ensures I am coping without infringing on my independence.
by janice2 on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:39 pm
I knew there was something nagging me about this.
It was Ashby who “got the case out of all proportion” by colluding with Brough and especially by using Lewis to splash it all over the front page for a good two weeks.
Now he seeks to hide from what he has done by claiming he might incriminate himself if forced to tell all.
He’s trying to hype up the case and then hide from the consequences.
Another Julian Assange, only a lot dumber.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:39 pm
oops
The “315″ referred to the installed capacity of the windfarm.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:40 pm
@TheKouk: Wow: 3 month German notes yielding -0.20%. Yes minus. The 3 month to 2 year curve at or below 0.00%. Bad, bad sign.
by guytaur on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:41 pm
Rule even when writing a PHD, only use multiple syllable words in locations where the meaning and useage match.
by fredn on Jul 6, 2012 at 4:42 pm