Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Murdoch tabloids will never learn,to hell with the law or moral decency.
tom_watson@tom_watson
Who will you be sacking for this insult @rupertmurdoch? http://news.defence.gov.au/2012/07/04/chief-of-army-letter-to-the-editor-in-relation-to-an-article-by-ian-mcphedran/
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:42 pm
The finns
Miss Wrightstuff has been very quiet on the Slipper front. Hope she does have moar!
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:43 pm
snap
re 5850
Dey iz scum.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:46 pm
IIRC she’s more likely to be scoffing white wine …
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Dan G
Actually, I “follow” Barnaby for light relief, but he’s boring. His tweets are just links to “media releases” full of fibs and exaggerations. No fun at all.
by lizzie on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Yeah Puff, tom watson does not pull any punches , he detests them.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:49 pm
Good evening all.
What has happened to Morgan of late?
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:51 pm
CTar1
She could be a Strangeloves fan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MiiD8KeAFew
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:51 pm
TLBD
Your real first name’s not Marcus I assume.
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Most of the Liberal MPs on twitter are like that. MT is a notable exception.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:52 pm
poroti
UTube always seems to have ads like this
http://xkcd.com/713/
with their clips.
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:55 pm
A good reason to keep shooters out of national parks:
http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/03/12532922-trains-guns-lightning-and-cigarettes-blamed-for-wildfires?lite
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 7:56 pm
http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/kapiti/7212285/Record-cold-morning-for-Kapiti-Coast
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:00 pm
CTar1,
I have many wise words:
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:00 pm
@rummel/5862
Who’s to say that it doesn’t go the other way, it does say “Climate Change”…
by zoidlord on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:01 pm
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/7218395/Extreme-June-cold-snap-breaks-records
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Very true, and given it will remind people why we had to put up with Fielding for 6 years it was a pretty dumb move.
by fredn on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:02 pm
http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2012/07/03/3537713.htm
The mercury nudged minus five degrees this morning, the coldest Alice Springs temperature in a decade
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Brandis in weasel words,”He Knows Nothing”
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2012/s3540723.htm
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:02 pm
r
Very funny. The US has had 40,000 weather records broken since 1 Jan; 7:1 hot records to cold records.
Your hero Mr Christy reckons that Mother Nature is the gulity party.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Mr Brandis always knows either everything or nothing.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:03 pm
rummel
Try saying that after six drinks!
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Shaun does Miss Sophie.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Jessica Wright @jesswrightstuff @Thefinnigans I’m not hanging round eating candy. Promise.
Reference to a Bob Dylan song there.
Newspapermen eating candy,
Had to be held down by big police.
Someday, everything is going to be different,
When I Paint my Masterpiece.
My interpretation…..
Junk food journos producing crap and intimidated by authority, are trumped by truth and action.
Go for it Jess.
by Phil Vee on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:04 pm
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/june-was-wettest-since-records-began-in-1910-7904461.html
It was also very cold for the time of year, and it was also very dull, and in many parts of the country, the idea of Flaming June was no more than a fantasy.
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Puffy was on Micalef
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Surely an investigation will happen regardless of what Ashby wants to defend or not? Unauthorised release of Cwlth material is a serious offence.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Who the hell dreamt up the name “Sisiwana Bang”?
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:06 pm
rummel
Are you a slow learner? AGW/Climate Change/Global Warming has always meant greater climate extremes,more energy in the system, it includes frostiness. Like less Arctic ice = more ocean exposed = more evaporation = more snow in the US.Well whaddaya know that is exactly what is happening.
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Schnappi
Poor Mr Brandis is not happy. i wonder why?
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:07 pm
r
Cf UK, that’s odd. In Australia it always rains more under Labor but in the UK it seems to be wetter, duller and colder under the reactionaries.
I see the Tories are sacking one fifth of the army. I assume that those on active duty in Afghanistan will not be sacked until they get back.
May 2012 was, globally, either the warmest or second warmest May on record.
by Boerwar on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:07 pm
You mean Pommy Land is having a cold wet summer ?
OMG who wold have thunk ?
by Mick Collins on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:08 pm
snap
eh? I wasn’t on micalef.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Phil Vee
I do hope so. We cant rely on limited News to give us the facts. It is up to the Fairfax stable on this one
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Schnappi:
Mark Colvin does well in that interview to keep Brandis honest. A few of his peers would do well to read that transcript on that front.
But he fails to land the killer blow: if Brandis “kept well away from it”, how is he able to have such a strong opinion about what the govt has said about the case, and why should PM listeners take anything he says about the matter seriously?
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:11 pm
confessions
Agree re Brandis. He is not a happy chappy. There is a long way to play out on this
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Boerwar.
Yes i have seen this. World peace must just be around the corner.
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Puff
Must of been imposter, micalef called him Puffy.
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:15 pm
I was using cruise control, set not by my speedo but by my GPS (old style, numeric, REAL Garmin GPS) which is 100% accurate. Given a +/- 1kph drift on the cruise control 111 is within specification.
The only problem was that I thought it was a 110 kph zone, not 100kph.
What upsets me is that I was really trying to be law-abiding (no points for the 10 years before). People were tooting at me for going slow. I just missed the sign.
Didn’t even see the copper (they say you never see the one that gets you).
I’d say he got a lot of others that afternoon.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:16 pm
The MET. Another wrong prediction…. lol
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Confessions @5876,
That is my take as well.
I would suggest that the government and the legal team of Mr Slipper have enough emails, phone records and texts to take care of both Ashby and Lewis.
They also have statements from other individuals mentioned.
Others with legal knowledge and background will be able to set me straight but I cannot see how the actions of Ashby and Lewis will stop the government and Slipper progressing their cases.
Get the evidence out there I reckon.
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Watched the whole video,not long.
George Bludger@GeorgeBludger
Abbott releases new border protection team. I think he means business: http://youtu.be/Nlxxt6mgWMQ #auspol #boatpeople #boathphone
by Schnappi on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:18 pm
Mumble with this howler yesterday:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rot_started_with_latham/
Latham with his policy focus on the early years and improving children’s literacy is the reason Labor has world-beating early years policies today. These policies, such as the national roll out of the AEDI (not the half-arsed effort by the Howard govt), are supported by international neuro-scientific and epidemiological evidence. I cheered when Labor announced in govt they would go national with it.
But Latham didn’t stand for anything according to Mumble. Proof of how poorly regarded early years stuff is by the political classes. They just don’t get it.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Hate to break it to you Rummel, but Brittan is notorious for having cold wet summers. To try and argue that Brittan is having a cold wet summer => AGW is not happening is quite pathetic really.
by Mick Collins on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:22 pm
BB,
have you not learned from Tony Abbott? His cruise control is set by his Speedos.
by Scarpat on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Scarpat,
Peta wears the speedos?
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:26 pm
a. i have not done anything of sort.
b. to claim a hot summer in one country is a sign that AGW is happening is equally as pathetic.
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:27 pm
My final comment on the Ashby case tonight is that it’s going to get messy.
From reading the Commonwealth’s letters to Harmers they were prepared to concede a lot, arguing that Ashby doesn’t need to respond to anything he thinks might incriminate himself. Just respond to the main allegations.
Harmers now say that the whole case is tainted by the impropriety allegations. So they don’t want to produce anything. Rather they want to wait until Slipper and the Feds have presented their cases, and only then respond.
Only the “headline” stuff was reported today (Albo’s “big mouth”, Roxon’s “improper”comments etc.).
There’s a lot more nuance to the case than that, and all I can assume is that, being Friday, the media court reporters went home for an early tea, and didn’t bother reporting the respondents’ responses to Harmers’ arrogant arguments.
Harmers is prosecuting this case as if their client is the one that’s hard done-by. They are trying to play with the respondents’ minds.They’ve accused them of incompetence, “embarrassing” submissions, poor punctuation and general klutziness. It’s all designed to play to a wider audience:the public.
Dutifully, the media reported only Harmers’ arguments and a few isolated comments from the judge…. a few words among many hundreds of thousands uttered today. Fodder for shock jocks, but not necessarily fatal to either Slipper or the Commonwealth’s cases.
What I do worry about is that, whatever happens, Ashby will appeal.
Remember: the aim is to keep Slipper out of the Big Chair. That is all they have to do to keep a fall of government, however unlikely, on the cards… a back-door victory for Abbott.
Sometimes I think the entire Establishment is against this government: courts, media, and business.
LSL will call me a “conspiracy theorist”, but I’ve lived through what they did to Whitlam, and this seems worse.
Let us hope that justice prevails.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Its not the “hot summer” perse.
Its the magnatude of the heat wave, as well as the associated bushfires, that point to AGW
by Mick Collins on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Space Kidette
Yeah but Tones wears the mankini in that relationship !
http://www.latestbuy.com.au/img/product-Images/mank-350b.jpg
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 8:31 pm