Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
tlbd,
Vive la République! Vive L’Australie!…
by Scarpat on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:11 pm
Psephos,
The would-be interlopers from Indonesia and Mr Houston’s attempt to involve all parties seems to be de jour. The option of zero visas for the boaties has been ignored.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Psephos
I wish it was the implications of the Mad Monk still claiming he will order the navy to turn back the boats and the Indonesians saying get stuffed.
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:12 pm
victoria @5936,
Thanks for that.
I may have misunderstood but doesn’t the government and Slipper legal teams already have the information from Ashbys ( I have no idea where the ‘ goes ! ) phone already ie numbers and texts plus emails ?
Would these not already include contact with Lewis ? Brough has already provided all details as well of contact with AShby and Lewis.
I am sure there is more being held by Ashby and Lewis but I would think by what the government is saying they already have enough to go on with.
That should be damning in itself.
Hopefully someone can put me straight but when Ashby and Lewis release what they have does not seem a major issue especially if most is already held by Slipper and Government.
Cheers.
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:12 pm
CTar1,
I think what is emerging is two distinct legal matters. The harassment matter and the theft. Not sure that the defence that is a beat up to bring the govt down in this case is entirely irrelevant.
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Charles La Trobe should have put in a Carbon tax.
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:14 pm
You start with a 15 of cider, to clear the palate. Then, a pint of Guinness. After that, the devil takes the hindmost.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Chris Barrie had a good slap at Abbott today. The Navy hates being used for jihadi-fishing when they’d rather be Navying.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Interesting that Neil James has not yet made any comment about the Abbott plan.
He seems to have gone all shy.
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:17 pm
I don’t think the 2001 Howard across the bow of a SIEV would attract a lot of attention these days, sadly.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Psephos,
More important, politically, is Tony Abbott’s “he has been misinterpreted”. If Labor does not make mileage of that …
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:19 pm
psephos,
Who is JG’s media strategist?
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Very true. I remember Liberals at the time disparaging Latham’s literacy stuff on children, despite Prof Fiona Stanley sitting on Howard’s PMSIEC at the time!
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Carlton by 8 in the third. Bookies favour Collingwood.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:22 pm
Neil James is an embarrassment to the ADA. After his appalling handling of the ADA’s position on the Skype sex abuse stuff, I’m surprised he still has a job.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Bottom line Abbott wants the ‘boats’ to be in the spotlight so he can continue to gain cheap political mileage out of it – he does no want it resolved he wants it as a political plus – cheap and dirty is how he plays it
by scoutdog on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:29 pm
Van Persie wants to leave Arsenal because he doesn’t agree with Teh Management. The agreement in Europe that gave the fre-for-all has empowered the players way too much.
I favour a “5 years and you are stuck rule”. That would not lead to penury.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:29 pm
One of the worst hangovers I ever had was caused by Cider + Bourbon (Stone-Fences) with beer chasers.
Not recommended.
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:31 pm
SK
John McTernan
http://twitter.com/#!/johnmcternan/
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:31 pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/monti-cabinet-passes-32-billion-spending-cuts-GB4CptH2StKN_mYrmjJ6Yw.html
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:33 pm
confessions @5962,
Agreed.
He has not been backward in coming forward on other matters why not this ?
Especially the direct effect it would have on defence force members.
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Confessions
Neil James is the ADA – a one man lobby group operating out of a Tuggeranong PO Box.
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:34 pm
Psephos @ 5968
Is McTernan any good?
Is there a strategy in place?
When is it expected to yield results?
Is Tom Bentley still on her staff and in what capacity?
by bemused on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:34 pm
around the greasers today.
Abott is in the lead
by Joe6pack on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Psephos,
Thanks for the link. Do you know how long he has been there and are Hawker Britton still in the picture?
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:36 pm
lol.
by rummel on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:37 pm
CTar1:
Is that true?
If so it explains a lot.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:37 pm
CTar1 @5967,
Mine was Red Ruby port.
Around the world for a dollar.
That was when I was 16.
I am now 56 and still the smell of port revives the memory.
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:37 pm
The ADA is an old NCC front, but now it’s drifted away. I think CTar1 is right, it’s really just Neil James. He’s quite good on some traditional Defence issues, but he’s hopeless on cultural issues like the ADFA-Skype scandal. I’m sure he thinks that women shouldn’t be in the ADF at all.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Blythe Duff is on. Seize you later!
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Bemused
McTernan is a very smart guy
The strategy is for Gillard to muscle up to Abbott at every opportunity. I’m sure you’ve noticed she’s been much more aggressive this year.
I think it’s working and will show dividends next year as Abbott’s scare campaign collapses.
Hawker-Britton is in deep disgrace.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Carlton V Collingwood – who do I dislike more? Hard to say.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Psephos @ 5980
And Tom Bentley?
by bemused on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:40 pm
Easy! The Eddiewoods!
by BK on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:41 pm
Confessions – Psephos @ 5978 is correct as far as I know on the NCC/DLP connection.
by CTar1 on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:43 pm
Women on the so-called front line was another issue James squibbed.
Political discourse was calling for an opposing view constructed of something other than
motherhoodfatherhood statements, and the ADA failed to deliver.And forget the opposition. David Johnson is clearly a lightweight, and has no answers to the issues our ADF faces today.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:44 pm
CTar1:
The ADA: the IPA of ADF commentary?
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Media strategy?
The best “strategy” would be to force disinvestment in the media generally by limiting the revenue share available to any publisher. No publisher should be able exceed a 3% share of the national advertising and/or subscription market, or 15% of any regional market.
That would break up the monopolies and entrench diversity of expression in publishing forever.
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:45 pm
How and when ?Unless he fu big time
by Joe6pack on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:46 pm
David Johnstone is a pompous jackass. If there is a Liberal government any time soon, Stuart Robert ought to be Defence Minister. Despite belonging to some nutty religious sect, he’s a smart guy with a good military record and knows a lot about Defence.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:47 pm
The great Victorian fires of 1851
____________
In the year which would see the great gold discoveries in Victoria…these terrible fires burned out a large part of the colony
William Strutt.. a major colonial painter ..left a record of these events in his great landscape painting
by deblonay on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:48 pm
He is a buffoon. He makes the mistake of supposing that everyone else is as dim as he is.
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:50 pm
The William Strutt Painting of the Victorian fires of 1851
http://www.google.com.au/imgres?q=painting+of+black+thursday+fires+1851&um=1&hl=en&sa=N&biw=1116&bih
by deblonay on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:51 pm
One of the highlights of Senate Estimates a while ago was watching General Gillespie gently explaining to Johnstone why we didn’t send heavy armour to Afghanistan, as he was demanding. “Mountains, Senator, lots of mountains.”
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Senate Estimates….not often known for comedy…..but I can imagine the scene
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:55 pm
psephos,
Reads like a comedy sketch not senate estimates!
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:57 pm
All very well and good.
dedAny thoughts about the qld, electorate labor has abondaded.
Or is it the southern states know better?
by Joe6pack on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Senate Estimates is like a Chekhov play – slow and generally dry, but very rewarding if you have the patience. There are of course occasional moments of high drama, like Godwin Gretch Day.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:58 pm
Psephos
I say wRONg. If he was smart he would not belong to a religious loon cult. To beieve such shite requires the brain to be switched off.
by poroti on Jul 6, 2012 at 9:59 pm
At the time the skype thing broke out I wrote an email of complaint to the Senator about some of his public comments, which appeared to blame the victim, and consequently expressing my contempt for the Senator’s public statements on the matter.
Within a day I had a response from one of his staff ‘clarifying’ Johnston’s ‘position’ that he was indeed ‘outraged’ at the ADFA handling of the matter, and backed the govrnments actions.
None of this was expressed publicly of course. A truly odious individual.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:00 pm