Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Labor has not abandoned Qld, Qld has abandoned Labor. Whether a year of Campbell Newman will be enough to make Qlders reconsider, time will tell. I think probably not.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:01 pm
And Conroy and Quigley on Barnaby’s NBN Button Day.
Totally loved that.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Psephos@5980,
I believe you may be wrong there. As you would know Bruce Hawker is persona non grata atm, except in those MP’s offices who continue to entertain the fantasy of a Rudd return, or in Rudd’s office. Hawker went fair feral in January and February on behalf of his ‘Brissie’ Besty.
Bruce Hawker split from Hawker-Britton a while back.
As far as I know, Hawker-Britton alumni, such as Simon Banks, are still beavering away on behalf of the party, with generally positive results.
Correct me if I’m wrong.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Poroti, I have come to accept the fact that intelligent people can believe bizarre religious things that to me seem to be obvious nonsense, and so can you. Apparently it’s genetic. I don’t have the faith gene, for which I’m grateful.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Psephos,
The latest Can Do cost cutting exercise includes an ALP statue dedicated to the mud army.
by Space Kidette on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
6000
Hopefully the 18 months will help. Katter`s Australia Party is the wild card in Qld. Will a Brisbane based LNP leader drive large numbers of conservative rural and regional voters to the KAP?
by Tom the first and best on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Labor abandoned qld. before the election and never rcovered. Selling the ports and rail just after the election was a sin they could never recover.
I think the same federal carbon tax
by Joe6pack on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm
confessions @ 5999…..too right!
Stehem Smith took actions that were right in every way, and which would never have even occurred to David Johnstone, whose reflexes would have been to bury the issue.
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:07 pm
C@tmomma, that may be so, I haven’t been following that.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Psephos
I asked a couple of questions about Tom Bentley.
You answered the others I asked, if you don’t wish to answer the ones about Bentley then please indicate.
by bemused on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:11 pm
ABC Classic FM is playing a particularly fine performance of Tchaikovsky’s
Piano Concerto No 1 in B flat minor…..exultant is the word
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:11 pm
Interesting.
It’s only a Tweet but if there was documentary proof of the fact Abbott is now altering the form of words he is using, I’d put that down to a big win for the Gillard government.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:13 pm
briefly:
Johnston is hopeless. Absolutely hopeless.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:14 pm
I have faith…in the the very high likelihood that I will be disappointed….
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:14 pm
You are too kind, confessions, too kind. He is much worse than that!
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Bemused, sorry, the answer is I don’t know.
Smith’s actions on ADFA were absolutely correct, as the results of the various reviews now coming in show. Sexual misconduct in the ADF is a boil which Defence has to lance, and not try to cover up as the Catholic Church has done. Women in the ADF are not a luxury, they are an absolute necessity given the difficult future Defence recruiting faces, and therefore the ADF has to be made a place where women can work in safety.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Collingwood lose. Always good
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Thanks Psephos.
If you are wondering why I asked, it is because he is reputedly the source of at least some of the dopey advice Julia Gillard received.
I was hoping to hear he had moved on…. the further the better.
by bemused on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:20 pm
There already is documentary proof: that whole cobra/python stuff he was rabbiting on with the other day.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:21 pm
For Carlton supporters nothing is better than beating Collingwood!
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:23 pm
The ADF has to be made a place where violence is directed at our enemies and not comrades…:)
by briefly on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:24 pm
confessions
I cant believe it. Carlton beat Collingwood!!!
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Psephos,
Did you catch Bronnie spit the dummy about unions not being investigated on funding?
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:24 pm
victoria:
A great victory!!
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Collingwood lose by 4 goals. Even better.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:26 pm
confessions
I have been feeling so bad for Brett Ratten the coach. The msm have been feral. Similar to how the msm have been with our PM
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Tad rain in La Belle for Le Tour.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:27 pm
I’ve never worked in the PMO so I’m not a good source on what goes on there. I’ve spent the last two years telling people they’re not eligible for the AASM. I can tell you all about the VC inquiry if you want.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Every single commentator in the msm had written Carlton off tonight. They were wRONg!!
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:29 pm
whats better than besting scumwood by 4 goals ?
beating them by a point
by Mick Collins on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:29 pm
I’m not very fond of Carlton, but I’d barrack for the Waffen SS against Collingwood.
by Psephos on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:30 pm
vicky,
The AFL coaches are sedant compared to the Thugby League. As I count, there are five coaches in the current comp there who have “coached” the Raiders at one time or another.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:31 pm
victoria:
They did good tonight. 23 points over the ladder leader.
Love it.
by confessions on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:32 pm
victoria @6028,
Interesting analogy !
by Doyley on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Gott strafe Collingwood!
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Ducky
Carlton and in particular the coach has been under extreme pressue for the past month. Melbourne is full on when it comes to AFL, and Brett Ratten has been copping it especially from Carlton supporters, which is pathetic. Despite me being a Carlton supporter, some of the fan base have been disgraceful towards the coach of late.
by victoria on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Now if only the Swannies get beaten tomorrow that will make the perfect trifecta
by davidwh on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:35 pm
GO TIGES !!!!
by Mick Collins on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:36 pm
victoria,
Unfortunately, it is cheaper to sack the coach (1) than the team (40).
So many times you think the players are fronting up just to be paid.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Ladder leader no more after about, well, tomorrow night at the latest.
Could be as low as 5th after the weekend, with games against Geelong and Hawthorn to come.
by Aguirre on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:39 pm
confessions@6018,
Sorry, but I don’t think you’re getting the distinction between rabbiting on about the ‘Python squeeze’ on the electorate that the Price on Carbon supposedly will effect, cf the fact, it seems to the Tweeter I referenced, that Abbott is changing the ‘Repeal the Carbon Tax’ rhetoric to merely introducing the legislation to parliament and seeing how it goes, as a function of maybe realising now that his dream of achieving the repeal via a quick Double Dissolution, is but a pipe dream.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:42 pm
As long as the mighty Rabbitohs win this weekend, I don’t care who beats who in the AFL.
by C@tmomma on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Anyone AFLer remember a John Coleman?
When I came to Australia in ’57 he was the first I read about (at about the time I was able to understand English).
I’ve been an Essendon fan ever since. Weird stuff!
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:46 pm
The TdF is screwing up my sleeps.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Psephos:
The scare campaign has collapsed already. I don’t know what effect that’ll have on the polls, but it is over.
The calendar took care of part of it. The Whyalla stuff took a massive chunk out of it. And now that businesses have got it clear they can’t price gouge and blame it on CT, it’s buried.
Abbott has to spend the next 15 or so months pretending he has policies. He’s made a great start to it this week, getting offside with both Indonesia and our navy. And I’m sure there’s plenty more where that came from.
by Aguirre on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:49 pm
and Don Bradman’s test batting average nowhere in sight…what a disgrace!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/blog/quiz/2012/jul/05/uk-citizenship-test
by Scarpat on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:49 pm
something we agree 210% on.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:50 pm
The Tdf always reminds me of Deek’s doing the stuff in the Commonwealth Games in Brisbane.
by This little black duck on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:50 pm
tlbd,
you are most welcome to come over…
by Scarpat on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:51 pm
The icing on the cake is if the Swans, Eagles, Bombers and Crows all win, Collingwood will drop from #1 to #5 in one weekend.
Fingers crossed.
by Dan Gulberry on Jul 6, 2012 at 10:53 pm