Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Kevin Rudd, since deposed, has shown no sign of humility or of given unconditional support to the current management.
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:00 am
Psephos @ 6098
Wow! An increase of 6+% in TPP and presumably a sizeable increase in the Primary… and after Murdoch had done his worse. I’ll take it!
I think your comments reflect the circles in which you mix and are not necessarily reflective of all of Caucus.
by bemused on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:01 am
So Swan, Gillard and Tanner were the villains and Rudd gets it in the neck.
Two points about that.
First, Rudd was party Leader and PM. He allowed himself to be argued out of a DD, which was the alternative strategy. So he has to take a large share of the blame.
Second, that decision was taken in the wake of the failure of the Copenhagen conference. The government’s strategy was to implement a CPRS in the context of a global climate agreement. The failure of that agreement left Australia in an exposed position, and I can understand the economic arguments that Swan and Tanner put up infavour of dropping the CPRS. I still think it was the wrong decision. I don’t think any of them were “villains.” The real villains are Rupert Murdoch and Hu Jintao, who between them, for different reasons, sank Copenhagen.
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:04 am
The peloton is closing in 55 kms out. This is very early. Why?
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:06 am
I think your comments reflect the circles in which you mix and are not necessarily reflective of all of Caucus.
As of February they are reflective of 70% of Caucus. That may have dropped a bit, but not much.
And at least I’m being open about where I’m coming from. Where are you coming from?
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:07 am
Therese Rein on what her husband might do in future:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rein-were-still-ready-to-serve-20120706-21mpj.html
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:07 am
Herr Doktor, he has to take all the blame. If you dont have the gut to go to a DD over “The Greatest Moral Challenge of Our Time” then you aint a leader IMHO. In fact, i wrote to him to urge him to go for the DD. He sould have listened to my advice
by The Finnigans on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:09 am
A Rudd dd would have lost, no question. When was the last time a prime minister go to “the people” with that degree of certainty?
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:09 am
Psephos: People have stopped listening to Julia Gillard – that’s the bottom line, all the cheerleading for her & the denigration of Rudd on this board doesn’t change that essential fact.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:09 am
Good, PB has turned to the Right again
by The Finnigans on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:10 am
Psephos
I’m not sure the electorate would forgive the ALP if they didn’t return Rudd. Specifically in Queensland.
Sure, he might have been a micromanaging control freak, but the act of getting rid of him on June 24th 2010 pretty much without warning is seen as justification for any of that behaviour and still is seen as a slap in the face to the electorate.
Switching to a third leader institutionalises “NSW syndrome”
by spur212 on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:10 am
Unfortunately it was Rudd that stated that ‘climate change was the greatest moral challenge of our time’ and is therefore seen, rightly or wrongly, as not having the courage to face that challenge. If he were to come back, it would be too easy for the Coalition to dust off the ‘no ticker’ epithet. This would be reinforced by the way he challenged Gillard for the leadership – instead of challenging her directly face to face, he resigned as Forein Affairs Minister from the ‘safety’ of Washington.
by Scarpat on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:10 am
why are my posts all in italic?
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:10 am
Bilbo,
Can you please undo the italics!
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:10 am
Chidley.. a true radical and sex reformer and eccentric
in early 29th century Australia
_________________
A very funny ,moving and interesting account of a remarkable eccentric…with strange views about women and sex..who worried the medical.political and legal establishments in the early years of the 20th century in Melb and Sydney
________________________
by deblonay on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:11 am
Psephos,
Someone forgot to do >/i>
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:11 am
Psephos,
Someone forgot to do
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:12 am
I’m not going to spend my time arguing about Rudd. He is a political corpse. Move along.
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:12 am
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:13 am
Ashby faces 10 years gaol
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/staffer-could-face-10-years-for-sharing-slippers-diary-20120706-21mna.html
by spur212 on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:13 am
I give up. Shall I do 35 more comments to get to a new page?
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:13 am
Chidley… and his answer to the sex problem
_______________________
http://inside.org.au/william-chidleys-answer-to-the-sex-problem/
by deblonay on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:14 am
I’m quite happy to post in italics
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:14 am
/
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:14 am
It sometimes happens in wordpress when someone leaves an ital tag unclosed at the end of the post. A mod has to insert a “close all open tags” tag.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:14 am
q
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:14 am
w
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:15 am
e
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:15 am
r
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:15 am
t
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:16 am
y
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:16 am
u
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:16 am
It was probably Psephos quoting bemused …
Just guessing.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:16 am
It was probably me. Es tut mir Leid.
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:16 am
Happy to oblige.
Close all open tags
by Mod Lib on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:17 am
Psephos: A “political corpse” with over 60% popularity, more than you can say for your girl Gillard.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:17 am
a
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:17 am
b
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:18 am
ccc
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:18 am
dd
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:18 am
ee
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:19 am
rr
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:19 am
I think Duck is having a seizure. Better see a quack.
by Psephos on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:19 am
Some in the Labor party are acting as if they are members of the Liberal Party.
The Preference deal in the Melbourne By Election and now these comments by Mr Sussex St Mr Dastyari.
No wonder Labor is losing its base and also starting to lose more votes in inner city areas.
Some news or you guys. You are not the Liberal Party and you need the Greens more than they need you.
by guytaur on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:20 am
Hmm I wonder if turning an ital tag on gets plain text?
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:20 am
qws
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:21 am
Psephos @ 6104
Yes, I do respect your openness and your honestly stated opinions.
I aligned with the ‘Labor Unity’ faction in Victoria at the time of that very polarising event, Federal Intervention. At the same time I loathed the NSW Right and still do.
My factional ties have largely dissolved and I count people in both left and right as friends and people I respect.
I don’t think much of your former boss and I don’t think much of Shorten. But while I might disagree about some things with Conroy, I think he has done a great job with the NBN and respect him for that. I also think highly of Combet, Wong, Roxon, Albo and in spite of certain events, Swan. I think Gillard is finished and it is just a matter of time.
So you would probably say I am all over the place.
by bemused on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:21 am
Apparently not …
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:21 am
Psephos,
If you have a quicker way of getting to the next page …
by This little black duck on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:22 am
U guys have 2 believe 4 it to work
Oh yea of little faith ….
by Mod Lib on Jul 7, 2012 at 12:22 am