Nielsen: 58-42 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports the latest monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition lead at 58-42, compared with 57-43 in the previous month’s poll. The primary votes are 28% for Labor (up two), 48% for the Coalition (steady) and 12% for the Greens (down two). That these shifts should send Labor backwards on two-party preferred can be put down to fortuitous rounding in Labor’s favour last time. Tony Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened, from 46-44 to 46-42, but personal ratings are little changed. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 35% and steady on disapproval at 60%, while Abbott is steady at 39% and down two to 55%.
Nielsen also has 88% of respondents wanting “the political parties to compromise to find a policy solution” on asylum seekers, not unreasonably (a more specific question regarding the arrangement which passed the House last week would perhaps have been more illuminating), with only 10% opposed. Labor (58%) fared worse than the Coalition (42%), the Greens (39%) and the independents (18%) when respondents were asked of each party in turn if they bore some responsibility for the impasse. The poll also has opposition to the carbon tax at 62%, up from 59% in October, while support is down from 37% to 33%. Only 5% believed they would be better off after carbon tax compensation, with 51% believing they would be worse off.
UPDATE: Essential Research has two-party preferred steady at 56-44, with the Labor primary vote down a point on last week to 32% and the Coalition and the Greens steady at 49% and 10%. Presented with the favoured policies of Labor (offshore processing in Malaysia), the Liberals (offshore processing in Nauru) and the Greens (onshore processing), respondents divided 18%, 35% and 14%. However, 57% favoured an option that the government should negotiate a solution over the alternative that it should adopt the Liberal policy. Further questions gauge use of newspapers and concern about their decline, culminating in a finding that 52% would approve of the government “taking action to maintain the publication of daily newspapers” against 27% who would disapprove.
We also have the quarterly Newspoll breakdowns by state, gender, age and capitals/non-capitals. The star attraction here is a collapse in Labor’s vote in Queensland, their primary vote down to 22% from 30% in the previous quarter and their two-party vote down from 42% to 35%. How much of this might be put down to static from the state election, and how much to the defeat of Kevin Rudd’s leadership challenge and the manner in which it was effected, is a subject for further discussion. I also note that the Greens primary vote appears to be down on the 2010 election result among men and voters under 35, but not among women and older people. The availability of state breakdowns from Nielsen allows us to combine their results, with due weight given to their respective sample sizes. This produces quarterly samples ranging from about 3300 in New South Wales to 1200 in South Australia/Northern Territory.
The Nielsen figures corroborate Newspoll’s result for Queensland (their last three monthly polls have had Labor’s two-party vote at 34%, 36% and 32%), and point to a Labor collapse there dragging the party down nationally. Queensland appears to have far surpassed Western Australia as Labor’s worst state, the latter having recorded only a 1% swing off the low base of 2010. The other states are recording swings of around 5% to 6%, off bases ranging from 48.8% in New South Wales to 55.3% in Victoria.
Preselection news:
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Shorten is clever, no doubt.
I think minister is his highest level. Beyond that he might struggle.
Combet is the man, get around him.
Gillard won in 2010 pain train, suck it up.
by Henry on Jul 7, 2012 at 1:24 am
Shorten did what is really rare for a politician who takes on a Disabilities portfolio (he was parliamentary secretary though, not a minister). He actually got across the issues, consulted with and learned from stakeholders, actively advocated for the sector and delivered results. He also obviously had a genuine concern to address the issues for people with disabilities. There was great disappointment that Disabilities was not part of his Ministerial responsibilities.
I would not be surprised if someone somewhere in the sector is planning to erect a statue in Shorten’s honour, it was water after a drought to have that level of interest and advocacy and ACTION, at that level of politics. I wish him well for the rest of his career.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 7, 2012 at 1:30 am
Australia, we need to talk about Kevin. He’s still here to help, says Therese.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/australia-we-need-to-talk-about-kevin-hes-still-here-to-help-says-therese-20120706-21mom.html#ixzz1zrIfKzTQ
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:09 am
Labor’s ‘faceless men’ target Greens without consulting PM
LABOR should consider preferencing the Greens last at the federal election, the party’s NSW secretary Sam Dastyari says in a declaration of war on Julia Gillard’s alliance partner made without consulting the Prime Minister.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labors-faceless-men-target-greens-without-consulting-pm/story-fn59niix-1226419439503
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:15 am
I think the Greens would do quite well if their were an early election, and Labor, well we know.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:16 am
According to Marr’s Power Trip, Gillard had more Caucus votes than Rudd in 2006 but Rudd flatly refused to serve under her. Sign of times to come, I suppose.
by rishane on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:24 am
Labor would have lost under Gillard. It took huge popularity of Rudd, a brilliant campaign, freaking out Howard in order for Labor to win that election because of the inevitable narrowing to Howard closer to the election. At the end of the day people voted for Rudd to lead the country, and not Labor. As the polls are pretty much telling us now. Probably why the faction bosses hate him so much and want to smear him.
Gillard would have gone down as would have anybody else. Despite everybody’s denial of this fact.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:32 am
Th NSW ALP Sec takes a stand for poliitical suicide
_________________
A kind of political madness now infects sections of the ALP
Despite the alliance in Canberra with the Greens …the hatred of the Greens by the ALP Right knows no bounds
To place the Greens last would give Labor Prefs in the Senate to the Libs-Nat who would be even more likely to gain extra senate seats…on Labor prefs ..they would have the last laugh
What does the NSW ALP think of this
They forget that in many marginals like Corangamite and Eden-Monaro the ALP member only survived on Greens frefs
What if the Greens returned the attack,,,many Labor marginals would be swept away…though many will be undefendable even now
What sort of ideological madness from the Labor Right impells these mad moods?
I know the DLP element in the ALP hates the Greens social agenda…perhaps urged on by Cardinal Pell…who must have a lot of influence and he regards the Greens as anti-Christian …so that figures
Danby in Melb Ports has also pushed for this mad policy because he hates the Greens principled stand re Palestine and he is a spokesman on many matters for the zionist lobby
Thois crazy scheme comefrom NSW where they have managed to make the ALP a small minor party whiich seems to have no future
Hopefully the Melb by-election will mark a new stage for the Greens ..and show the eed for a decent relationship with the Greens
Some on this site migh learn something too
by deblonay on Jul 7, 2012 at 2:55 am
New thread.
by William Bowe on Jul 7, 2012 at 3:49 am