Seat of the week: Hindmarsh
UPDATE (9/7): The latest weekly Essential Research poll has the two-party vote steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 31% for Labor (down a point for the second week in a row), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 11% for the Greens (up one). There are further questions in asylum seekers, of which the most illuminating is the findings that 60% believe the government is too soft, the carbon tax (31% say they have noticed an increase in costs, 54% say they haven’t) and the European economic crisis.
UPDATE 2: Roy Morgan has published poll results from its last two weekends of regular face-to-face surveying. This has both parties down on the previous fortnight, Labor by 3% to 29.5% and the Coalition 2.5% to 45.5%, with the Greens up 4.5% to 14.5%, their best result since February and equal best result ever. The Coalition’s two-party lead is down from 54.5-45.5 to 54-46 on previous election preferences, but up from 56.5-43.5 to 57.5-42.5 on respondent-allocated preferences.
Before we proceed, two automated polls from ReachTEL which were published earlier in the week:
• A poll of 646 voters in Dobell points to a crushing victory for the Liberals, regardless of whether Craig Thomson remains as Labor candidate (which would not appear likely, as the party is proceeding with the preselection process while Thomson’s membership is suspended). Without Thomson, the primary votes after exclusion of the undecided are Liberal 61%, Labor 30% and Greens 6%. With Thomson, the results are 64%, 21% and 13%. The former set of figures suggests a two-party split of about 64-36 and a swing against Labor of around 20%, which seems a bit much. Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Labor sources have “confirmed the party hoped to finalise its candidate by the end of the year, which would make it impossible for Mr Thomson to clear the legal issues surrounding him in time to resume his party membership and nominate”.
• A 1051-sample poll of state voting intention in Queensland had the primary vote at 56.5% for the LNP, 21.8% for Labor, 9.4% for the Greens and 7.4% for Katter’s Australian Party. This compares with election results of 49.6%, 26.7%, 7.5% and 11.5%.
Now then.
Created when South Australia was first divided into electorates in 1903, Hindmarsh was traditionally a safe Labor seat covering Adelaide’s working class north-western suburbs. The creation of Port Adelaide as a separate electorate in 1949 made it somewhat less secure, pushing it southwards into more conservative Henley Beach, but only in 1966 was long-term Labor member Clyde Cameron seriously threatened. The watershed moment in its progress from safe Labor to marginal came in 1993, when the abolition of Hawker drew the election further south into Liberal-voting Glenelg. It currently extends along the coast from Glenelg South north to Semaphore Park, from which it extends inland to mostly Labor-voting suburbs south of Grange Road, from Kidman Park to Torrensville south to Morphettville and Ascot Park. The redistribution to take effect at the next election has effected two minor gains, both to Labor’s slight advantage: 3300 voters at Seaton in the north from Port Adelaide, and 1500 voters at Edwardstown in the south from Boothby. Labor’s notional margin is now 6.1%, compared with 5.7% at the election.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
I wonder at motives.
Chris Kenny and Mark are completely professional
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:00 am
Labor will win this seat. Great local member,big heart, the libs will focus as a point of reference , Bring up trash, but there is none.
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:09 am
From what I can gather from my Adelaide friends, grey, Mark Kenny is relatively benign – at least by Murdoch standards.
Chris is the toxic one, and arguably should really be at the Telegraph. Are they brothers?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:10 am
You know they are.
Ever since Chris got his jollies with the “secret womens business” stuff when Robert Tickner (A fine man) was Minister he’s thought he can bang on about anything.I suppose in that respect I am showing no more imagination than him in my criticism.
I still think he a turd burglar.
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:19 am
Sorry, I know it’s late..
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:28 am
I didn’t know Chris was behind that hysteria – didn’t know enough about the SA scene then – but it would be consistent with what he’s done since – very close to Steve Lewis levels.
Anyway, a good analysis of the lies about the “she lied” bullshit.
And I guess it is ironic that The Parrot, the biggest liar around on Climate Change, should have headed the pack on that charge.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:31 am
Do you GD, think it ironic that such a raging homosexuaol as Alan should impinge on other peoples lives. Who have never met such an old ridiculous poof.
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:44 am
Here’s Talcum …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-06/turnbull-backs-gay-civil-unions/4115982
… testing the water.
by CTar1 on Jul 7, 2012 at 5:52 am
Yawn.
Hetero’s deal with it. Fuck special shit. That would be discrimination.
by grey on Jul 7, 2012 at 6:31 am
Thanks BW, Lizzie and Victoria for your advice re Dandenongs.
Ashby Slipper imbroglio looks like it is heading for a quagmire which is not surprising when you have competing media hungry law firms (Harmers v Maurice Blackburn Cashman) running the show.
by shellbell on Jul 7, 2012 at 6:54 am
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
And the saga continues. Disgraceful, really.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/top-priest-keeps-silent-over-clashing-accounts-of-child-sex-admissions-20120706-21mg4.html
This is heading for a showdown somewhere.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/supermarket-price-war-hitting-suppliers-20120706-21mg2.html
Bring it on, I say.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/father-to-take-canberra-on-again-over-chaplains-20120706-21mop.html
David Pope on Abbott and climate science.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Ron Tandberg on religion and science.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
$202000 legal bill for Mary-Jo Fisher. That has to criminal in itself!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/bid-to-sue-ex-senator-mary-jo-fisher-vexatious-court-told/story-e6frea6u-1226419027232
by BK on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:02 am
morning bludgers
well, rudd-kardashians are headlining again today – these people have no shame!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/rein-were-still-ready-to-serve-20120706-21mpj.html
by Lyne Lady on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:08 am
Talking to someone over night, who thinks the judge would be a bit surprise in how this ashby vs slipper case is turning out
The judge would have expected it to be the normal run of the mill sexual harassment case.
by Meguire Bob on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:16 am
One James Ashby may be feeling a tad nervous.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/staffer-could-face-10-years-for-sharing-slippers-diary-20120706-21mna.html#ixzz1zsaQZxY2
by poroti on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:17 am
Cartoonist Ron Tanberg seems to be taking a swipe at Abbott’s relationship with hi wife
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/turnbulls-gay-marriage-swipe-20120706-21mou.html
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:28 am
Therese Rein an introvert? hmmmmm
by Lyne Lady on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:33 am
GD:
Simple, better.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:49 am
Interesting breach in the wall:
TA will not be pleased.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 7:52 am
William’s report re Dobell is interesting on pre-selection. I hope Deborah O’neill’s counsel is sought as someone who appears to be a successful local member in an adjoining seat.
by shellbell on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:04 am
Good Morning Bludgers!
My, my Thomas Paine became well-unhinged last night. Still, if there’s one thing I’ve realised about the relationship between politics and the electorate and how it determines the way some people will vote, it’s that grudges can be held for a very long time.
I was handing out HTVs once and this old guy refused to take a Labor HTV then proceeded to give me a lecture about why he would never vote for the ALP again after what they had done during WW2! I think he was talking about Chifley breaking up the Coal Workers’ strike and sending them back to work.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:06 am
Let’s hope so … they did send in the army … albeit 4 years after the war had ended.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:11 am
Brumbys to engage social media expert to repel carbon tax muck up. Maybe they can give Harmers a call and see if Anthony McCllellan is available.
by shellbell on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:12 am
shellbell@19,
As Deb’s Electorate Officer is a Dobell pre-selector, I think you can guarantee there will be some cross-pollination of thoughts. Also, as Deb is the Vice President of the NSW ALP now, her views will be important and contributory.
Also, a shout out to any Liberals out there who organise the photos for the candidates. Last week we got our first letterbox drop of material spruiking Liberal candidate for Robertson, Lucy Wicks. My youngest son, who doesn’t know crap from shinola about politics, said when he saw the photo on the front of the leaflet, “Who’s she? She looks like a penis with hair on top.”
Sorry for the indelicacy of my comment so early in the morning, but that’s boys for you!
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:13 am
C@tmomma
TP goes on and on about ‘factions’ … what does he think Kev-07′s little group is?
by CTar1 on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:14 am
deborah knight @deborah_knight
Breaking news – Tony Abbott has been injured in a car accident in Brisbane. Details to you in next news on @thetodayshow
by Lyne Lady on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:15 am
Fran Barlow@21,
Yes, I wasn’t quite sure about whether it was during or after WW2, and I was too lazy to Google it! I’ll never forget the spray though.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:16 am
CTar1@24,
It’s no faction, it’s the Cult of the Ruddashians.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:17 am
One of the reasons it wouldn’t be during WW2 was that the Stalinists favoured the Western allies opening a second front, and after the Teheran Conference even dissolved the Comintern to prove their compatibility with the west. It was only prior to Operation Barbarossa that they opposed Western military intervention.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:19 am
Gee, there seems to be a resolute redoubt of support for Labor in Brisbane. A car accident with Campbell Newman involved the other day, Tony Abbott today. And, yes, I’m joking!
To make it clear, I don’t like seeing anyone hurt in car accidents as my late husband had his back broken by a drunk driver when he was 18 and suffered the rest of his life because of it.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:20 am
Lady lynne is that
A tongue joke
Well if not newman first tone second
Usual thoughts no comment
by my say on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:26 am
Morning Bludgers.
Seems like Shit happens.
by smithe on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:27 am
Interesting piece comparing Abbot’s one liner critiques of the Labor Gov to Nazi Propoganda techniques. Made a similar point myself on PB the other night. Abbot wouldn’t get away with the liar rant in Europe where the memory of WWII is still v. pervasive.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/taxing-the-truth-why-we-must-not-let-abbotts-dogmas-lie-20120706-21mlz.html
by Rossmore on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:30 am
Was the other vehicle a mining truck?
by Jaeger on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:31 am
Yeah, right…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/shut-up-or-be-kicked-out-lnp-tells-clive/story-e6frgczx-1226419451908
You can just see them saying, “Thanks for the coupl’a mill, Clive, but you’re out.”
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:32 am
Poor michelle
by my say on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:32 am
Seems to be common to most western democracies -
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/jul/06/british-democracy-decline-report
by CTar1 on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:33 am
Have the age, decided to become age,
by my say on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:34 am
And finally, the DT posts a story about Ashby:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/peter-slippers-accuser-james-ashby-has-been-allowed-to-delay-giving-evidence/story-fndo28a5-1226419493334
Short, but sweet. Poor Steve Lewis, he didn’t know he was dealing with a criminal.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:35 am
Have the age, decided to become of age,
by my say on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:35 am
Good Morning Bludgers,
I am on cherub rugby league duties this morning (I’m actually coaching because my husband is working!).
If it is true that the LNP want to boot Clive if he continues his campaign (can’t see him shutting up, can you?) judging by Clive’s recent history it could be the equivalent of kicking a hornets nest.
At a guess, Clive could be the benefactor behind any number of dodgy LNP moves and would know where the skeletons are buried!
Have a great day Bludgers!
by Space Kidette on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:38 am
Yeah poor Steve Lewis. Guess he must have assumed that Ashby had permission to slip him the diary records.
by smithe on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:48 am
……
by my say on Jul 7, 2012 at 8:50 am
shellbell
If you’re there, are you able to give us an indication of what effect, if any, this decision by the judge to allow Ashby to delay giving his evidence will have on the overall outcome for the Commonwealth and Slipper.
I haven’t been able to tune in much for the past couple of days so apologies if you have already discussed it and I missed your comments.
by Darn on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:00 am
Come on bludgers. Where are you? There’s hardly anything coming through?
by Darn on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:02 am
my say,
I’m sure michelle is rushing to be by Tony’s hospital bedside even as I type this.
It’s amazing though, a near miss before the 2010 election, and now a collector. The things Mr Abbott will do for Newspoll after a bad week when his messages started to sound very tired, very quickly.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:02 am
Woke this morning to a headline “We have to talk about Kevin”, as quoted by an earlier bludger. We don’t, actually. Well done the first person who said “look out it’s Poll weekend”.
Interested in the comment that Rudd refused to serve under Gillard even though she had more votes in caucus at that time. I remember that he only became leader because she threw her votes behind him.
by lizzie on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:04 am
BK, the silence is everywhere:
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
The silence of Tony Abbott on the priest pedophile issue is deafening. Oh, i forget Cardinal Pell is his spiritual advisor.
by The Finnigans on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:04 am
BW, once again we were right. Libya is slowly turning into Iran Mark 2. They have never learned. Now there many Gadaffis to deal with as well as the Muslim Brotherhood.
by The Finnigans on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:06 am
Darn@43,
Fwiw, my reading of Justice Rares remarks in court yesterday, and I’m no legal parser, was that, if you have a criminal case arising out of these matters, get thee to the Criminal Court, this is supposed to be a sexual harassment case in the Federal Court, and that’s all I’m interested in really.
by C@tmomma on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:07 am
Regardless of the methodology, those seat polls are a real worry. At the last election, the betting odds for each individual seat turned out to be a more reliable indicator than the overall odds, IIRC.
As for Hindmarsh, Steve Georganas is a hard-working and popular local member, but the result will, as always, depend on the overall swing.
by Swing Required on Jul 7, 2012 at 9:08 am