Yeah seems a bit pathetic, doesn’t it. Surely someone could step in and do a little bit of psephing for the ABC?
I’d be surprised and disappointed if the Sex Party pulls 8% of the primary. They did a mailout during the week and it was poorly written, vague, scattergun approach populism. When they first burst onto the scene in 2007 (? feel free to corrct me…) they at least seemed to have some policy substance, even if it was fairly clear that they’re basically a sex industry lobby group. Now they’re just waffling.
The default expectation here is that the Greens will win quite well. So if they don’t, or even if they only just win, that will of course produce headlines in the media about how Gillard is a great PM after all, since of course this by-election is all about Gillard. I’m not holding my breath on that. They will find a way to spin this against Labor whatever the outcome.
I know its been ALP for some 108 years but based on income levels this seat should be a marginal of course the ALP would like to hold it for another 108 years.
I have a copy of Mackerras’s book with a photo on the cover of the ABC 1969 election night panel. Mackerras was one of three. Who were the other two? Clue: one died recently.
How could you possibly find Antony Green annoying? He is the voice of unbiased, unsensational analysis and reason, and will not be led into the temptation of calling anything early.
First?
Hi all. Is there any television coverage? ABC news 24 maybe?
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Prediction: Greens 56:44
ps: i am not a greens member/supporter. that’s just what i think
its dumb that i feel i have to say that haha
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:08 pm
https://twitter.com/aussexparty/status/226545633119588352/photo/1
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:09 pm
There will be no live ABC coverage as Antony Green is on holiday, there’s a note here: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/vic/2012/melbourne/
Thanks Bill for the coverage.
by Nick of McEwen on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:14 pm
Prediction Greens 50.5 to 49.5
Primary Greens 39 Labor 36 Sex Party 8 Family First 4
by Leadership on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Are you joking antony green is away so the abc drops election coverage?
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:16 pm
How clever of the reactionaries to use the Melbourne by-election as yet another cockpit for the self-destruction of the centre left vote.
by Boerwar on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Yeah seems a bit pathetic, doesn’t it. Surely someone could step in and do a little bit of psephing for the ABC?
I’d be surprised and disappointed if the Sex Party pulls 8% of the primary. They did a mailout during the week and it was poorly written, vague, scattergun approach populism. When they first burst onto the scene in 2007 (? feel free to corrct me…) they at least seemed to have some policy substance, even if it was fairly clear that they’re basically a sex industry lobby group. Now they’re just waffling.
by Nick of McEwen on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Leadership, yes, it is my prediction it will be that close… impossible to call for week or two…but my suspicion is, Labor will just get over the line.
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:25 pm
Just as well. Chris Uhlmann or Tony Jones or Leigh Sales as stand ins would’ve done irreparable damage to the ABC’s election coverage.
Besides, there is William for up to the minute coverage!
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Antony is in France, cycling in the Tour des Psephologistes. He’s currently well ahead of Malcolm Mackerras, on preferences.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Psephos,
You are a very naughty boy … but I like it!
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:32 pm
The default expectation here is that the Greens will win quite well. So if they don’t, or even if they only just win, that will of course produce headlines in the media about how Gillard is a great PM after all, since of course this by-election is all about Gillard. I’m not holding my breath on that. They will find a way to spin this against Labor whatever the outcome.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:33 pm
It’s very close at the moment. Wouldn’t like to predict the winner.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
9#joe for labor to get over line they need to be leading tonight because the green do well in early vote
by Leadership on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Psephos,
“here”. Your emigration to Melbourne is complete?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
It would be so good for Labor voters’ morale if they manage to win tonight.
by feeney on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Of course. Although a Labor win would be much harder to to spin as somehow bad for the federal govt than a Greens win.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
No, here as in “this by-election.”
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Psephos, yes they will. All media noisemaking relating this to federal politics, in a byelection with no liberal candidate is such crap.
by Nick of McEwen on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:37 pm
This should be a close result, the real test will be how the usual Liberal booths go
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:38 pm
“Gillard fails to gain swing in safe Labor seat”
“Carbon tax to blame for low swing to Labor”
“Rudd backers vote Green, blame Gillard”
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:39 pm
From memory East Melbourne is the only Liberal booth in the seat.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:40 pm
21
Docklands and East Melbourne.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
I know its been ALP for some 108 years but based on income levels this seat should be a marginal of course the ALP would like to hold it for another 108 years.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Psephos,
We were out your way last night enjoying a bit of Molière at Q Theatre. He did have a thing about doctors, didn’t he?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
there are some closeish ones around docklands?
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Tom – Yep, although I would include Parkville as a swing booth and the CBD and Southbank (if its in the seat)
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Ah Mackerras I have visions of him on the ABC in 1969 using a pair of binoculars to read the tally boards
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Mex, that assumes that high-income inner-city voters vote Liberal. But of course most of them vote Green.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Libs polled high 40s in East Melbourne in Docklands in 2010. Daylight third.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:43 pm
You can hear that very broadcast in the background on Don’s Party.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:44 pm
AFR had the sole Lib seat depiction btw.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/loss_could_provoke_labor_to_attack_l3FtY4vIuZu7QfOu0HpwrO
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:44 pm
I have a copy of Mackerras’s book with a photo on the cover of the ABC 1969 election night panel. Mackerras was one of three. Who were the other two? Clue: one died recently.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:45 pm
The fact that there are 16 candidates might cause the count to be a little slow.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:46 pm
Labor has been apparently been running hard on Baillieu’s TAFE cuts:
http://twitpic.com/a9z9sv
http://twitpic.com/a9z9am
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:46 pm
Malcolm Mac dies every election.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:47 pm
That’s not nice. Mackerras invented Australian psephology. If only he wouldn’t try to play prophet.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:49 pm
Am I the only person in the world who finds Antony a little…… annoying?
just a little.
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:49 pm
31
The liberals also polled first in Melbourne booth by 24 votes.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/state2010FPVbyVotingCentreMelbourneDistrict.html
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Hurry up William, or Graeme Richardson will call the result befire u post any figures.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Antony is… a character.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:52 pm
drowner:
I love Antony Green. He has a certain nerdiness which simply can’t be emulated.
That, and he knows what he’s talking about, and if he doesn’t know, he endeavours to find out. If only other ABC journos were cut from the same mould.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
41
The VEC do not even have the names of the polling booths on the results page yet.
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/stateby2012FPVbyVotingCentreMelbourneDistrict.html
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
How could you possibly find Antony Green annoying? He is the voice of unbiased, unsensational analysis and reason, and will not be led into the temptation of calling anything early.
by Nick of McEwen on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Melbourne bi-election
http://www.news.com.au/top-stories/labor-greens-go-down-to-the-wire-in-melbourne-by-election/story-e6frfkp9-1226431410004
by Gecko on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:53 pm
The only thing Antony says early in every count is: “Oh, my computer doesn’t seem to be working tonight.”
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Mike Willesee and the recently departed Jim Dibble.
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm
There are no heterosexuals left in the seat.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm
low turn out is good for labor
by Leadership on Jul 21, 2012 at 6:56 pm