What? The most important state by-election in the country’s history and the Liberals aren’t contesting. How could that be? Don’t they realise the results here will shape the future of the country for hundreds of years to come?
Hypothesis so far: The Labor vote is basically unchanged, but the majority of Liberals have voted Green, creating a swing to the Greens. If that is confirmed, that is a good result for Labor. Not that anyone will report it that way.
Let us recall that the Greens would easily have won this seat in 2010 had the Libs preferenced them. Since the Libs are now de facto preferencing them by not running, the point of comparison should be the result in 2010 as it would have been had the Libs preferenced the Greens.
I love it when Greens refuse to believe that some progressive Liberals vote for them.
I hope that’s an ironic comment. The more rightwing a Liberal voter is, the happier they are voting Green in order to defeat Labor. Serious conservatives are not stupid and understand tactical voting.
Yes, but it only becomes a serious defeat for Labor if the Labor primary vote drops. If all we see tonight is the Liberal preferences shifting from Labor to Green, then that is a serious rejection of the expectations created by the media.
Psephos,
I was hoping the Green tactical voting of the Liberals would have been trumped by the ‘Hold My Nose & Vote ALP Because The Australian Says I Should Never Vote Green’ bloc.
Labor primary slightly down in Parkville, well down in N Melb.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:56 pm
What? The most important state by-election in the country’s history and the Liberals aren’t contesting. How could that be? Don’t they realise the results here will shape the future of the country for hundreds of years to come?
by Mithrandir on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm
7m Electoral Commission Electoral Commission @electionsvic
4.97% counted: ALP 30.87%, Greens 39.99%. Full breakdown at http://ow.ly/coITB #MelbVotes
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Psephos, the booth that’s reported is North Melbourne East – are you working off North Melbourne when you say “well down”?
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Parkville ALP primary 33.3 > 32.7
N Melb ALP primary: 34.4 > 29.3
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Oops, I am comparing it with N Melb
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Its extraordinary.. 2 hours after close of polls and only 5% counted!!! Is this normal in Victoria?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 7:59 pm
In North Melbourne East the ALP vote is down by about 60 something votes.
I wouldn’t read too much into that.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Those sausage rolls look terrible.
Though probably better than all the tofu at Greens HQ.
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
North Melb EAST was ALP primary 29% last time psephos
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Although the issue may be that I’ve juggled around with the numbers a bit to account for changed locations.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
In that case the ALP primary is UP in N Melb East from 28.1 to 29.2
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Okay then, maybe I was right the first time …
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Could be a long night. Might get some wine.
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Due to the number of candidates I would expect all primary vote percentages to be lower than normal.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Informal is coming third!
Informal Votes counted: 158 (7.08% of the total votes counted)
by ShowsOn on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Psephos: are you sure?
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:02 pm
@Drowner – need to remove informals from calculations. Nth Melb East is 29-42 this time in primaries = significant swing to greens
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Hypothesis so far: The Labor vote is basically unchanged, but the majority of Liberals have voted Green, creating a swing to the Greens. If that is confirmed, that is a good result for Labor. Not that anyone will report it that way.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:04 pm
Question: does the Sex Party candidate preference the Green Party?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Drowner, no. Maths is not my best subject, and I’m not taking into account booths having moved.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Before agreeing I would want to see the usual Liberal votes.
It is looking like a small move away from the ALP, enough to be called Pike’s personal vote but again that is an early call.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:06 pm
Anyone agree with my thoughts that Sex Party will have higher preference rate for Grn than ALP simply because they’re closer on the ballot paper?
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:06 pm
According to MWH the ASP are preference the ALP
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Swamprat – no
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Let us recall that the Greens would easily have won this seat in 2010 had the Libs preferenced them. Since the Libs are now de facto preferencing them by not running, the point of comparison should be the result in 2010 as it would have been had the Libs preferenced the Greens.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:08 pm
thanks womble
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:08 pm
From twitter
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
Scored 88 votes in North Carlton Primary booth but of these 56 did not follow card so prefs going everywhere. #melbvotes
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Liberals would never ever vote Greens for tactical reasons. Clearly its Labor voters deserting to the Greens and Liberal voters all voting Labor.
(Or maybe its a mix)
by Mithrandir on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Did we decide whether RMIT was Melbourne or Melbourne Central? Apparently it’s 55-45 to Greens 2PP.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
I love it when Greens refuse to believe that some progressive Liberals vote for them.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Yes Stephen that’s called the random scatter or idiot vote. Well done mate.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Isn’t this exciting?
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
progressive liberals???? :p
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
Scored 88 votes in North Carlton Primary booth but of these 56 did not follow card so prefs going everywhere. #melbvotes
by Leadership on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:11 pm
I hope that’s an ironic comment. The more rightwing a Liberal voter is, the happier they are voting Green in order to defeat Labor. Serious conservatives are not stupid and understand tactical voting.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Swamprat Better known as small “l” Liberals
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Either way, it’s a Greens swing of 7-8%. So I’d say it’s going to be tight.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:13 pm
yes mexicanbeemer, I know, just that I thought they were extinct, certainly highly endangered
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Education, bloody well, does that.
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm
The Greens should just rename themselves ‘The Small ‘l’ Liberal Party’ and be done with it!
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Stephen Mayne: “East Melb booth primaries: ALP 466, Greens 436, Mayne 175, Sex 151, Nolte 144. Just starting 2PP count now. Scrutineer says card followed.”
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:14 pm
On the primaries in those booths there is a small swing to the greens in both booths.
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Yes, but it only becomes a serious defeat for Labor if the Labor primary vote drops. If all we see tonight is the Liberal preferences shifting from Labor to Green, then that is a serious rejection of the expectations created by the media.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Which looks to me like a very good result for Labor (the East Melb one I mean).
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:16 pm
C@tmomma
You surely meant the ALP should rename themselves to Alternative Liberal Party
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
i.e. no swing at all.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Sex Party tight, will make the difference!
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Psephos,
I was hoping the Green tactical voting of the Liberals would have been trumped by the ‘Hold My Nose & Vote ALP Because The Australian Says I Should Never Vote Green’ bloc.
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:17 pm
ALP got 430 primaries there in 2010. Again, primary vote holding up.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:18 pm