Im not sure how good the ALP primary holding up is. Did the libs follow the card last time? Given labor got over the line on lib prefs, are they sure those prefs will come back this time?
Nolte has greens last, mayne has them above alp, i believe
The East Melbourne result seems to suggest that a lot of Liberal votes will have gone to the ALP rather than the Greens. It will be interesting to see what Docklands throws up.
Was interesting to hear Daniel Andrews out there again today saying send a message to Baillieu, vote Labor
That’s dumb for mine,...
Sounds perfectly reasonable. Ted would obviously feel more comfortable if this one went Green, when he is, at present, a seat away from oblivion. Though, you would imagine he had a huge majority if you believed the MSM.
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
Sex Party not flowing that well to Labor. In Carlton Primary Sex got 106 primaries, but 52 went against the cards to the Greens. #melbvotes
Seems approx. In my experience, the more the candidates, the less likely people to follow the HTV and just go “down the page”.
Sex party next to greens. Will preference greens much greater than 30%. I suspect 70%. This will result in an additional swing of approx 2% beyond what you’re forecasting.
Will – I understand you need to use the HTV’s as a guide, although I think it will not be an unbiased estimator.
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
Dr Berhan Ahmed's card flowing very strongly to Labor. Finished 3rd at Carlton Primary with 188 primaries and delivered strong 153 to Kanis.
Do we have any idea of turnout yet? Hotham Hill would cover a lot of the North Melbourne Housing Commission area – have these people (who are the backbone of Labor’s vote in the inner city) failed to vote? If so, Labor could be in big trouble.
swamprat,
The ALP should rename themselves ‘The Anyone But Abbott Party’ and they would romp it in.
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:19 pm
If the Greens cannot win Melbourne East outright then I am very tempted to call this a ALP win but!!!
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:19 pm
But the media will never admit they were wrong
by lizzie on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Well over two hours and only 2 or 3 booths?
What’s going on?
by Swing Required on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Sex party will go 70-30 to Greens. Given they’ve polled ~10% in Melbourne this changes the complexion, non?
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:20 pm
C@tmomma
Maybe the ABAAGParty
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Im not sure how good the ALP primary holding up is. Did the libs follow the card last time? Given labor got over the line on lib prefs, are they sure those prefs will come back this time?
Nolte has greens last, mayne has them above alp, i believe
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:21 pm
You know, I think this might be the ‘Buyer’s Remorse’ By-Election. People saying to Vic State Labor, “Come back, all is forgiven.”
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:21 pm
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Is the slow count due to the decline in education in Victoria since the Libs got in?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
drowner the ALP is slightly down in two booths and slightly up in East Melbourne
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:22 pm
They’re all watching the footy?
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Maybe, but their card preferences Labor, so my figures assume the opposite.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Oooh a whole bunch of booths just came in
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Baillieu budget cuts affect VEC?
by Modus Ponens on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Stephen Mayne says Sex Party prefs going 50-50.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:24 pm
hehehe…. on the VEC website you could rate the page 1 to 5. I rated it 1 ‘unhelpful’. It then said “thank you for rating this page 1 out of 5″
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Evening all.
The East Melbourne result seems to suggest that a lot of Liberal votes will have gone to the ALP rather than the Greens. It will be interesting to see what Docklands throws up.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
50-50 would be good for the Greens
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Sounds perfectly reasonable. Ted would obviously feel more comfortable if this one went Green, when he is, at present, a seat away from oblivion. Though, you would imagine he had a huge majority if you believed the MSM.
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:26 pm
I remember Antony Green grumbling about how slow the Broadmeadows by election was, so I think slow results are a usual thing for the VEC.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:26 pm
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:26 pm
The booths are going in all directions.
Docklands to the Greens
Hothan Hill (North Melbourne) to the ALP
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:27 pm
A ridiculaous comment seeing that the seat has been held for the ALP since 1908 and there is no Liberal candidate.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Seems approx. In my experience, the more the candidates, the less likely people to follow the HTV and just go “down the page”.
Sex party next to greens. Will preference greens much greater than 30%. I suspect 70%. This will result in an additional swing of approx 2% beyond what you’re forecasting.
Will – I understand you need to use the HTV’s as a guide, although I think it will not be an unbiased estimator.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Greens appear to have won two Carlton booths
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Joe2 MSM via Herald Sun are no fans of Baillieu
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:29 pm
These booths are showing bigger falls in the ALP primary.
Carlton 41.6 > 30.6. Has that booth moved?
Carlton North 34.3 > 32.8
Docklands 28.1 > 23.8
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Latest observation is that the Sex Party vote has stayed at 6.95% despite there being lots more votes in.
Did they plan it so there would be a 6 9 in their results?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Just shows sex party voters are mostly their own person.
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
The VEC appears to be treating RMIT has Melbourne Central
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Mexican beer: I see hotham hill going away from the ALP significantly: 58% down to 38% on primaries
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Hotham Hill 63.4 > 44.7 a big drop
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Drowner I hope you’re subtracting informals first: the VEC isn’t doing so
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Greens score a big win in North Melbourne booth, something like 300 votes ahead of primaries.
thankfully I put but at the end of my earlier prediction
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
I assume at 39% of the vote for Green and 32% for ALP, the seat will go to lengthy preferences?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Kensington 42.0 > 36.4
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Drowner At this stage I am mostly looking at primary vote numbers
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Me too?
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Third Carlton booth in and another win for the Greens on primaries.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:35 pm
No im not! I will fix it
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Do we have any idea of turnout yet? Hotham Hill would cover a lot of the North Melbourne Housing Commission area – have these people (who are the backbone of Labor’s vote in the inner city) failed to vote? If so, Labor could be in big trouble.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Informal in HOtham HIll was 13.6%
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Blackburnpseph does the same factor potentially impact on the Keninston booth which has also gone to the Greens on primaries.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Does Victoria have optional preferential?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:37 pm
We will to see postals and prepolls before we can comment on turnout.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:37 pm
No.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Oh hence the high informal with long list of candidates. Bloody undemocratic.
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:39 pm
With informals removed hotham hill goes from 63% in 2010 to 45% of primaries to the ALP
thanks psephos
by drowner on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:40 pm