Possible that the ALP vote in Hotham Hill has swung to informal. One would imagine with a close result and the party resources available in a by election that every vote will be scrutinsed to the nth degree.
The turnout at N Melbourne has fallen from 2446 to 1962. That suggests either abstentionism by Labor voters or a lot of prepolling. We won’t know until the prepolls appear.
Surely if someone voted 1, 2, 3 but failed to complete the form for whatever reason, they have made abundantly clear who they are voting for. Why should their vote be discarded?
As we see in NSW and Qld, after a few elections, optional preferential becomes de facto first-past-the-post, because nobody bothers preferencing. The result of that is serious distortions of the popular will, as we regularly see in all FPTP systems. Yes preferencing is a bore, but it produces more democratic outcomes. Personally I favour MMP, but if we’re going to have single-member seats, compulsory preferential removes some of its worst features.
RMIT is diagonally across the Swanson-Latrobe intersection from Melbourne Central Shopping Centre and Railway Station (access to the latter from Swanson St having been wrongly diverted via the former almost a decade ago).
2pp calculations have been made for some booths now.
Melbourne Central: GRN 55.3 / ALP 44.7 (6.7% to Greens)
North Melbourne East: GRN 54.4 / ALP 45.6 (6.9% to Greens)
Parkville: GRN 48.1 / ALP 51.9 (5.2% to Greens)
I’m still leaning towards the ALP but the Greens would be very happy with their performance across the Carlton and North Melbourne booths and Docklands made it likely but there is a long way to go.
Looks very close; would it be useful to adjust the Sex Party preference flows to the ALP back up to a little above half ?
- as İ think that you adjusted them down to 50% based on Stephen Mayne’s earlier advice from Carlton.
The turnout seems fairly much in line with the last state election – numbers of voters fairly similar at each booth. Only significant difference is that Kensington is down about 600 voters and North Melbourne is up about 500.
Twitter
Stephen Mayne @MayneReport
#melbvotes Some good latest figures and analysis from Crikey’s poll bludger: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2012/07/21/melbourne-by-election-live/
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:40 pm
I support compulsory preferential. I also support much higher deposits to deter frivolous candidates.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Drowner
Possible that the ALP vote in Hotham Hill has swung to informal. One would imagine with a close result and the party resources available in a by election that every vote will be scrutinsed to the nth degree.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Hardly surprising as the ALP is totally dependent on compulsory preferencing for survival.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:43 pm
To be expected……..
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:44 pm
These are the calculations I’ve got so far:
Swings against Labor PV:
Carlton: -11.0
Carlton North: -1.5
Docklands: -4.3
Hotham Hill: -18.7
Kensington: -5.6
Melbourne Central: -2.9
North Melbourne: -3.1
North Melbourne East: -0.8
Parkville: -0.6
Swings to Greens PV:
Carlton: +1.7
Carlton North: +2.4
Docklands: +10.5
Hotham Hill: +7.5
Kensington: +9.1
Melbourne Central: +7.2
North Melbourne: +6.4
North Melbourne East: +5.9
Parkville: +4.0
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:45 pm
Swing required: 5.8%
Actual TCP swing by booth:
Melbourne central: 6.7%
Nth Melb East: 6.9%
Parkville: 5.1%
Game on!
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:45 pm
However, I will support Adam on the issue of higher deposits.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:46 pm
The turnout at N Melbourne has fallen from 2446 to 1962. That suggests either abstentionism by Labor voters or a lot of prepolling. We won’t know until the prepolls appear.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Mexican @ 244
Kensington has some high rise Housing Commission but the area is more mixed public/private.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Psephos
Surely if someone voted 1, 2, 3 but failed to complete the form for whatever reason, they have made abundantly clear who they are voting for. Why should their vote be discarded?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Average formal reduction in booths around 10-15% to be expected with this byelection with no liberal candidate.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:49 pm
I’m sure someone on the radio said there are 6000 prepolls – or around 15%
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:49 pm
251
What about higher signature requirements instead of higher deposits, so that people with little money but some support can stand?
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:50 pm
womble – again normal.
6282 formal prepolls last time split 54% for Labor
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:51 pm
As we see in NSW and Qld, after a few elections, optional preferential becomes de facto first-past-the-post, because nobody bothers preferencing. The result of that is serious distortions of the popular will, as we regularly see in all FPTP systems. Yes preferencing is a bore, but it produces more democratic outcomes. Personally I favour MMP, but if we’re going to have single-member seats, compulsory preferential removes some of its worst features.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:52 pm
I’m still feeling good – especially if the Sex Party are going 50-50 but would love the Greens to be polling over 40% primary
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Psephos
I agree with MMP very much!!
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
RMIT is diagonally across the Swanson-Latrobe intersection from Melbourne Central Shopping Centre and Railway Station (access to the latter from Swanson St having been wrongly diverted via the former almost a decade ago).
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
Signature requirements are much harder to police and are wide open to abuse, particuarly in a country where we don’t have ID cards.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:53 pm
It would be good to get a Sex Party member elected. I am all for wild cards in Parliament (though not of the Right)
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
It would be good to get a Sex Party member elected. I am all for wild cards in Parliament (though not of the Right)
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Stephen Mayne is barely running second among the independents.
A lot of noise for not much result.
by Swing Required on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:54 pm
He’s comfortably second if you factor in the donkey vote, I suppose.
by Swing Required on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Andrew Landeryou will be cock a hoop
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:57 pm
2pp calculations have been made for some booths now.
Melbourne Central: GRN 55.3 / ALP 44.7 (6.7% to Greens)
North Melbourne East: GRN 54.4 / ALP 45.6 (6.9% to Greens)
Parkville: GRN 48.1 / ALP 51.9 (5.2% to Greens)
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:57 pm
I imagine if donkeys had votes they’d be a big constituency for Mayne.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Landeryou will probably run with Mayne doing terrible and the Sex Party turning a certain Greens political party victory into a photo finish
by spur212 on Jul 21, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Do those more knowledgable about the seat know whether its likely to be an ALP or Green win?
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Kensington is published.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:00 pm
Are early votes being counted tonight? If I recall, they were at the last state election.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:00 pm
On current progress, “tonight” will last until lunch-time tomorrow.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:02 pm
You’re doing a fine job William Bowe.
Twitter is awash with meaningless speculation…
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:03 pm
I’m still leaning towards the ALP but the Greens would be very happy with their performance across the Carlton and North Melbourne booths and Docklands made it likely but there is a long way to go.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Looks very close; would it be useful to adjust the Sex Party preference flows to the ALP back up to a little above half ?
- as İ think that you adjusted them down to 50% based on Stephen Mayne’s earlier advice from Carlton.
by Paul Kavanagh on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:04 pm
And in other news, the sun rises in the east.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:04 pm
If alp win without announcing a single policy it is a sad day for supposedly educated electorates…
by Modus Ponens on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Greens ahead in South Kensington booth
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:05 pm
such is it’s nature…
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:05 pm
He may be, but perhaps he can think of overcoming his unhealthy fixation with Mayne.
by Swing Required on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:05 pm
Is it too early to cross reference this Green vote with Adam Bandt’s federal vote?
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Paul, the DLP has been beaten by Family First. So there are more Protestant wowsers in Melbourne than Catholic wowsers.
by Psephos on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:07 pm
285
So you are a flat-Earther then?
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:07 pm
Interesting each iteration of the primary vote at VEC the sex party moves up (very slightly) now 7.3%
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:07 pm
The turnout seems fairly much in line with the last state election – numbers of voters fairly similar at each booth. Only significant difference is that Kensington is down about 600 voters and North Melbourne is up about 500.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:08 pm
New results in. Alp primary down a tad to 31
by Modus Ponens on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:08 pm
On primaries the Greens are ahead by 1156. usually I would call this a winning lead.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:08 pm
VEC 2PP show ALP ahead
by Boundary Man on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:09 pm
The VEC is giving a TPP to ALP 50.37%, Green 49.63%
by swamprat on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:10 pm
The VEC is awarding the seat to The Greens 52%
by daretotread on Jul 21, 2012 at 9:10 pm