Paul, I’m no longer making assumptions about preferences. The 2PP figures I’m working off the actual notional counts from the VEC. These show a 6.7% swing to the Greens on booth votes. Since the Labor margin in 2010 was 6.2%, that puts the Greens 0.5% ahead on my projection.
1973 was a Liberal landslide. 2010 was a Coalition scrape over.
In 1973 the ALP had been out of power for 18 years at state level and looked like not getting back for a long time. The Liberals had a new popular leader to replace Bolte who never got over 40% statewide primary vote in the 6 elections he lead the Liberal and Country Party(just the liberals with a slightly different name and the Country party were separate)/Liberal Party to.
Malcolm Farnsworth @mfarnsworth
Official VEC 2-party-preferred count for all 14 booths now has ALP on 50.75% to Greens 49.25%. That's 10472-10164 votes. #melbvotes
You have been a more than ample replacement for Antony.
What I want to know is where does this place Our William in the Tour des Psephologistes, with and without preferences, compared with Antony Green and Malcom Mackerras?
Against all the odds, all the MSM, Ruddstorationists, PB trolls, Green triumphalists, the ALP appear to have retained Melbourne. Suck on that sauce bottle.
@Oakeshott – only 5.4% by my tally, but surely only less than half of total prepolls?
Also, it doesn’t matter who organised postals better this time. Swing is determined by who did prepolls better this time COMPARED to last time. So if Labor went all out last time and all out this time => no difference. But if greens didn’t go all out last time (splitting priorities across four lower house electorates perhaps?) but DID go all out this time, the swing on postals will be more than the swing on attendance.
Against all the odds, all the MSM, Ruddstorationists, PB trolls, Green triumphalists, the ALP appear to have retained Melbourne. Suck on that sauce bottle.
How is this for a some math on a prediction for the result
Last time
Labor won 57.4% of 22373 poll votes
Labor won 53.1% of 14410 prepoll/postal
There will be less of a turn up with a by-election
Labor won 50.7% of 20636 poll votes
With the same reducting and swing of 6.7% in pre-poll and postal
Labor will win 46.5% of 13291 prepoll and postal
So, we are at where?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:12 pm
There must be oodles of postals, pre-polls or didn’t bothers as only 50% of votes have been counted including the informals.
by Diogenes on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Interesting observation:
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Ducky:
We are at wait and see land.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Big thanks, William, top job tonight.
You have been a more than ample replacement for Antony.
by Andos on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Paul, I’m no longer making assumptions about preferences. The 2PP figures I’m working off the actual notional counts from the VEC. These show a 6.7% swing to the Greens on booth votes. Since the Labor margin in 2010 was 6.2%, that puts the Greens 0.5% ahead on my projection.
by William Bowe on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:16 pm
fess,
OK.
Time to retreat to the lounge on ‘tother thread.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:18 pm
395
1973 was a Liberal landslide. 2010 was a Coalition scrape over.
In 1973 the ALP had been out of power for 18 years at state level and looked like not getting back for a long time. The Liberals had a new popular leader to replace Bolte who never got over 40% statewide primary vote in the 6 elections he lead the Liberal and Country Party(just the liberals with a slightly different name and the Country party were separate)/Liberal Party to.
by Tom the first and best on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:19 pm
As William has said Von K there are no Absentee votes, which favoured the Greens last time – their task is significantly harder than a 4% swing.
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:20 pm
William can you re-jig your numbers ignoring Absentee votes?
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
So who to believe: VEC or bilbo?
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
And I just read the bit about no absentee voters.
So since there were about 4300 of them in 2010, I’ll reduce the estimation of votes to about 10,000.
The Greens would need 51.5% of those 10,000 votes to go their way, requiring a swing of about 8% (they got 43.6% in 2010).
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:21 pm
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Thanks William
Thanksfully no elections for a while.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
I like William’s numbers
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
James Campbell is a Sunday Herald Sun columnist for those who don’t know.
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:24 pm
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:25 pm
Vec just put up “early votes” which ran significantly to Greens
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Is this right?
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Some absent voters last time will switch to pre-poll this time, or even postal.
If 0% do, Greens will need a swing of 8% on postals and prepolls to get the win
If 25% of 2010 election absentees switch to prepoll, then 6.76% is required swing – identical to two decimal places to the attendance swing.
If 50% switch to prepoll (most likely, IMHO), 5.8% swing is required.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Twitter is saying the Greens have conceded defeat.
Would seem a bit premature.
by zoomster on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Labor now in front by 208 – were these the pre-polls. Does that just leave postals?
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
I yearn to sleep, perchance to dream of ages past, and future, of beneficent.
I throw curses to those upon those who would disparage The Government That Is!
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
these ones aren’t as good
KANIS, Jennifer ALP 12286
OKE, Cathy Greens 12078
Total Votes counted: 26705 (59.49% of the total enrolment as at the close of rolls)
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Pffft… Bilbo in a canter.
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:29 pm
Are calculations about the many votes still to be counted based on the assumption that preference flows will be identical to election day ?
by Paul Kavanagh on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Surely not. They are sitting pretty atm so why concede?
Sometimes I hate twitter.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Andos,
What I want to know is where does this place Our William in the Tour des Psephologistes, with and without preferences, compared with Antony Green and Malcom Mackerras?
by fiona on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:32 pm
These last votes were good for Labor – only a 5.4% swing when at least a 5.8% swing on these votes were required.
I suspect these are only part of the pre-polls, although Labor is home and hosed if this is every single pre-poll vote. Does anyone know?
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:33 pm
I heard on ABC24 from @alisavage that VEC will stop counting votes at around 10:30pm tonight. Maybe one last update before they hit the lights.
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:34 pm
NO! NO! NO!
What did the Polls say? They can NEVER be wRONg!
by muttleymcgee on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
You would never see that from the Sex Party.
by joe2 on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:35 pm
Greens get 52% of pre polls- a 6% swing .
Labor should win with a better organization of its postals
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:36 pm
Thanks for that, Truth Seeker.
The Greens only had a swing of 5.4% to them on the Early Votes, which I don’t think will be enough.
Labor had a big 2pp majority of 61.2% in postal votes in 2010, so the Greens would need a huge swing to win from here.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Against all the odds, all the MSM, Ruddstorationists, PB trolls, Green triumphalists, the ALP appear to have retained Melbourne. Suck on that sauce bottle.
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Unless there is a bundle of votes misallocated this is all over. Labor holds Melbourne
by cityblue on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:37 pm
Truth seeker 3728 Votes would seem a substantial part of the prepolls if not the lot- its nearly 9% of the electorate
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Hope the bookies got hammered, I said the other day they had the prices wrong
How will the MSM spin this as being bad for Julia???
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
@Oakeshott – only 5.4% by my tally, but surely only less than half of total prepolls?
Also, it doesn’t matter who organised postals better this time. Swing is determined by who did prepolls better this time COMPARED to last time. So if Labor went all out last time and all out this time => no difference. But if greens didn’t go all out last time (splitting priorities across four lower house electorates perhaps?) but DID go all out this time, the swing on postals will be more than the swing on attendance.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Shorter Rossmore: “Get stuffed, Tony Abbott!”
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Where are the Greens hacks on this thread? All this time, yet no Greens commenters.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:41 pm
@ Oakeshott. Last time 6282 prepolls. This 3728 appears to be about half, as some absentees will switch to prepoll this time.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Sweetest victory of all?
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:42 pm
@Confessions – they’re too busy drinking diet fair trade coke and austalian made unionised rum in a classy bar on Brunswick St
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:42 pm
How is this for a some math on a prediction for the result
Last time
Labor won 57.4% of 22373 poll votes
Labor won 53.1% of 14410 prepoll/postal
There will be less of a turn up with a by-election
Labor won 50.7% of 20636 poll votes
With the same reducting and swing of 6.7% in pre-poll and postal
Labor will win 46.5% of 13291 prepoll and postal
So
Labor 16652 (49.1%)
Green 17274 (50.9%)
by ifonly on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:42 pm
hopefully some of the $250k the Greens are said to have spent will help with the prepolls but they aren’t sounding confident
well done Labor
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Shorter TLBD FUAbbott
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
I had noticed that, but, in a rare moment of sportmanship, I decided not to bring it up.
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:44 pm
If only Ifonly lol
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm