@ifonly – reduction of 15% would be expected as no absentees this time, compared to reduction of 10% in attendance. (Absentees much stronger for greens)
Margin won’t be as great but I think still about 50.3% or 50.5%
Counting informals the early votes So far posted are 3975.
While your argument may be correct truth seeker, on past performance of by-elections particularly without a liberal candidate the total turn out will be significantly lower than the general election and there may not be that many more pre polls.
ifonly @444: You need to bear in mind that the prepolls the Greens did well on last time include Absent votes, but there are no Absent votes in a by-election
In fact nearly all of the 1000 vote turnaround you get there is based on the projected Absent vote based on the booth swing.
Taking out the absents if the proportion and swing for the remaining prepolls is the same then Labor wins. And on the non-booth category up so far Labor are doing better then the booth swing.
The Greens did not get the clear cut result they wanted tonight.
After the media hype of the last week in terns of the Greens, this result should be seen as a direct message to Christine Milne’s leadership. The Greens made this by election about them vs Labor.
@Oakeshott
Now you’re comparing informals for 2012 but not in 2010 (all my numbers are ex-informal). Reduction would not be 10% for attendance but 41% for pre-poll. Unpossible.
If everyone else is so certain, it’d be tetmpting to place a bet on the greens on Betfair of $50 @ odds of $3.50 to see if I get any takers!
I’m curious if we’re going to start seeing ‘a Shy Labor’ effect, what with how voting Labor is made out to be prettymuch insane in most media coverage lately.
Hmm. Judging from Niddrie and Broadmeadows, postal votes tend to be higher in by-elections.
In any case, the situation is that Labor has 208 more votes than the Greens, and so the Greens will need to beat Labor in postal votes to win, which would need a swing of over 11% in those. Provisional votes may help, but they won’t be enough.
Jake
Posted Saturday, July 21, 2012 at 10:42 pm | Permalink
Against all the odds, all the MSM, Ruddstorationists, PB trolls, Green triumphalists, the ALP appear to have retained Melbourne. Suck on that sauce bottle.
Sweetest victory of all?
Evening all, have been out all day so missed all the fun…
Knife-edge result I see.
“Sweetest victory of all”? Really? The ALP (maybe) hold on to a seat they have held for a century, when the Liberal party don’t even bother to front a candidate and the ALP think it is the sweetest victory of all.
WOW, you guys really have reset the zero, haven’t you? If you hold onto ANY seats it appears to be a great victory. We really have beaten all hope out of you haven’t we?
Sure. Its not all over, but the count is ahead for the ALP. The Greens may claw back 100 or so votes from postals and provisionals and more prepolls, but I don’t think they will be enough. A full count and any miscounts and errors would probably be needed to make the difference. Which is possible, but that will mean more waiting. Anyone know the biggest difference between an election night count and a final full distribution? (not rhetorical, I don’t know)
“Sweetest victory of all”? Really? The ALP (maybe) hold on to a seat they have held for a century, when the Liberal party don’t even bother to front a candidate and the ALP think it is the sweetest victory of all.
WOW, you guys really have reset the zero, haven’t you? If you hold onto ANY seats it appears to be a great victory. We really have beaten all hope out of you haven’t we?
When comparing prepoll #s in byelections to general elections, there was reduction in prepolls of approx 40% in Niddrie, approx 15% in Albert Park but an increase (near double) in Fremantle…
SUrely there’s more pre-polls to come or be found?
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:45 pm
@ifonly – reduction of 15% would be expected as no absentees this time, compared to reduction of 10% in attendance. (Absentees much stronger for greens)
Margin won’t be as great but I think still about 50.3% or 50.5%
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Counting informals the early votes So far posted are 3975.
While your argument may be correct truth seeker, on past performance of by-elections particularly without a liberal candidate the total turn out will be significantly lower than the general election and there may not be that many more pre polls.
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Not the look of victory:
https://twitter.com/J_C_Campbell/status/226657773432217600/photo/1
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Jake/Womble – I think you’re counting your battery hens before they’ve hatched. It will be a close green victory, IMHO.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
If the turn up is low could the VEC make a profit on this by election?
by blackburnpseph on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
ifonly @444: You need to bear in mind that the prepolls the Greens did well on last time include Absent votes, but there are no Absent votes in a by-election
In fact nearly all of the 1000 vote turnaround you get there is based on the projected Absent vote based on the booth swing.
Taking out the absents if the proportion and swing for the remaining prepolls is the same then Labor wins. And on the non-booth category up so far Labor are doing better then the booth swing.
by Kevin Bonham on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:48 pm
truth seeker:
The Greens did not get the clear cut result they wanted tonight.
After the media hype of the last week in terns of the Greens, this result should be seen as a direct message to Christine Milne’s leadership. The Greens made this by election about them vs Labor.
I think the Greens have some questions to answer.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:49 pm
Jake 2013 will be the sweetest.
FU TLM
FU TP
FU Spur212
FU Shows
Tonight’s our night.
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:49 pm
C@tmomma,
I’m quite sure you know about selective publicity. Photo thingy.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:50 pm
While there’s life truth seeker there’s hope but it’s looking like close but not quite
by womble on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:51 pm
@Oakeshott
Now you’re comparing informals for 2012 but not in 2010 (all my numbers are ex-informal). Reduction would not be 10% for attendance but 41% for pre-poll. Unpossible.
If everyone else is so certain, it’d be tetmpting to place a bet on the greens on Betfair of $50 @ odds of $3.50 to see if I get any takers!
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Do I detect a soupçon of premature ejaculation?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Rossmore, why all of the gloating?
If Labor has retained the seat, it’s not by very much at all…..hardly a ringing endorsement of Ms Gillard.
by Thornleigh Labor Man on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:54 pm
Its looking better for the ALP:
http://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Results/stateby2012TCPbyVCMelbourneDistrict.html
by Disasterboy on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Tom was here.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Look who has turned up and obviously disappointed at Labor’s better than expected result
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:55 pm
I’m curious if we’re going to start seeing ‘a Shy Labor’ effect, what with how voting Labor is made out to be prettymuch insane in most media coverage lately.
by rishane on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:56 pm
You obviously haven’t caught up. The by election tonight was for a state, not a federal seat.
by confessions on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
@disasterboy – Labor slightly behind after factoring in expected votes to come and expected swings… (others are disagreeing though!)
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Hmm. Judging from Niddrie and Broadmeadows, postal votes tend to be higher in by-elections.
In any case, the situation is that Labor has 208 more votes than the Greens, and so the Greens will need to beat Labor in postal votes to win, which would need a swing of over 11% in those. Provisional votes may help, but they won’t be enough.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:57 pm
@Von Kirsdarke – extra prepolls have to remain. There were over 6000 last time.
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 10:59 pm
TLM I don’t gloat. A win against the odds is always worth a high five amongst friends. You aren’t a friend so nick off.
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Upon which premise?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Seems to me that 32.5% on primaries isn’t a bad number. There’d be quite a number of liberal voters boosting the greens primary vote.
by dedalus on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Evening all, have been out all day so missed all the fun…
Knife-edge result I see.
“Sweetest victory of all”? Really? The ALP (maybe) hold on to a seat they have held for a century, when the Liberal party don’t even bother to front a candidate and the ALP think it is the sweetest victory of all.
WOW, you guys really have reset the zero, haven’t you? If you hold onto ANY seats it appears to be a great victory. We really have beaten all hope out of you haven’t we?
LOL
!
by Mod Lib on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Latest VEC is Alp 51.38 greens 48.62
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Postals just went up heavily in favour of Labor
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Labor 760 in front
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
@truth seeker 470
The prepolls are currently breaking at about 51.3 to Greens and 48.7 to Labor.
Assuming there’s still about 2200 of them to go and they break at the same margin, then Labor would still lead by about 150 votes.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Mod Lib I know who will sleep happier tonight….
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Did you get your bet on truth seeker?
by Oakeshott Country on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Whoops, just a bit late there.
And it looks like the necessary swing to the Greens in postal votes isn’t happening.
by Von Kirsdarke on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Sure. Its not all over, but the count is ahead for the ALP. The Greens may claw back 100 or so votes from postals and provisionals and more prepolls, but I don’t think they will be enough. A full count and any miscounts and errors would probably be needed to make the difference. Which is possible, but that will mean more waiting. Anyone know the biggest difference between an election night count and a final full distribution? (not rhetorical, I don’t know)
by Disasterboy on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Mod,
I was being sarcastic.
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:09 pm
So, Labor by a reduced majority?
Looks as if not too many hate Baillieu.
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:10 pm
ALP primary vote now up to 33.3%.
by dedalus on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Only 1.6% swing on postals, but their total is down about 12%.
Hmmm. As an impartial observer, the data now seems to be speaking differently… brb (more spreadsheet analysis now)…
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Truth Seeker,
I never actually said we would win, though it’s looking more likely.
by Jake on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Disasterboy,
I know you! You were posting as Job, weren’t you?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Happier than me, or happier than TLM?
You will be lucky to sleep happier than me, but if you will, good luck to you!
Hehe
by Mod Lib on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Oh, that makes more sense!.
In my defence, it can be hard to differentiate what is panicked bravado and what is tongue in cheek here sometimes!
by Mod Lib on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:13 pm
S#x party and FF vote down
by Modus Ponens on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Tlbd be under no illusions Baillieu is not well liked. General vibe is he is lazy, disinterested and over it.
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:14 pm
by C@tmomma on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:15 pm
It beseeks me to say that 50% + 1 wins. Is there a contrary opinion?
by This little black duck on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:15 pm
I have a happy vision of Grattan up late staring at the whiskey bottle trying to figure out how this result is bad for the ALP.
by Rossmore on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:18 pm
When comparing prepoll #s in byelections to general elections, there was reduction in prepolls of approx 40% in Niddrie, approx 15% in Albert Park but an increase (near double) in Fremantle…
SUrely there’s more pre-polls to come or be found?
by truth seeker on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:18 pm
Rossmore
Grattan will probably take the Joe Hockey option – imagine how well Labor would have done with a popular Federal leader!
by zoomster on Jul 21, 2012 at 11:19 pm