Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I don’t explain the polls. You may care to examine what “troll” means. It has been explained often enough here.
Any more of your stuff and you are on my musrum script list.
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
bluegreen
You had me there! I was scratching my head thinking who the hell had the vote that low before Gillard, and then you hit me with the sucker-punch.
V norty!
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
Time for me to dig out the crystal ball. By this time next year:
Kevin Rudd will be on the crossbenches. A large number of Labor MPs will have taken Sharon Grierson’s lead and announced their retirement. Paul Howes will have won preselection for Newcastle, ditto Kristina Keneally for Barton, Peter Beattie for Griffith, and David Feeney for Lalor. Simon Crean will be Prime Minister. And the Coalition’s 2PP vote will be consistently in the mid-60s.
Feel free to bookmark this post, and point and laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong about any of this.
by itsthevibe on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm
C@85
Good post.
BTW, evidence is increasing that the regulators knew what was happening to the LIBOR, not in a general way, but in a quite specific, evidential way. This is virtually certain for Britain, and very close for the US.
IMHO, the British and the US governments (by way of the Reserve) will be co-respondents.
Let’s face it, it you are going to sue you want the moneybags in the room.
The only saving grace will be that these suits will drag on for a decade or so before they are resolved.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm
PM Gillard is certainly occupying one tail of the normal distribution curve. In fact she is the tail.
Outlier extraordinaire.
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Ducky – I will take it that you have had a bad day!
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:03 pm
spur212
You are a grumbler. Eat a kitkat or something.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:03 pm
The net negative for JG is just abysmal…..and probably irreversible.
by briefly on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
The fact that we have a bad government also reflects the fact that we have a bad opposition.
I suspect two polls with Labor’s primary vote less than 30 and the rumblings will get louder.
Labor need at least 35% and hope for a good preference flow you give the tories anything in the mid to low 40s and the election all but over.
I’m just sick because we have a woeful opposition that will be elected because they want to give Gillard the boot. Tone won’t be much better IMHO but hey…
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:04 pm
mexico,
Care to elaborate?
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
SK: yes, but when people say “vagina” they often don’t really mean the vagina, they are referring to the general female genitalia.
Which, incidentally, is called THE VULVA. The vagina is only one small – and internal – part.
Now I have driven all the guys away we can talk about our periods …
by Danny Lewis on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
GD @ 45
Panic attack?
Oh, I get it. What you really mean is an end to procrastination.
by bemused on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
I reckon that’s more accurate then most tresurey forecasts
by rummel on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
[itsthevibe
Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 at 11:01 pm | Permalink
Time for me to dig out the crystal ball. By this time next year:
Kevin Rudd will be on the crossbenches. A large number of Labor MPs will have taken Sharon Grierson’s lead and announced their retirement. Paul Howes will have won preselection for Newcastle, ditto Kristina Keneally for Barton, Peter Beattie for Griffith, and David Feeney for Lalor. Simon Crean will be Prime Minister. And the Coalition’s 2PP vote will be consistently in the mid-60s.
Feel free to bookmark this post, and point and laugh at me if I turn out to be wrong about any of this].
No worries tony is their leader,tones pesuaded unions to make him labor leader ,with dear ex leader kevies support
by Schnappi on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Gary,
Checked the BISONS lately?
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Leveson is back http://www.levesoninquiry.org.uk/hearings/
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm
I’d be cheering your comment on if this comes to pass:
Labor clearly cannot regroup and unite with Rudd amongst its numbers. The first thing that should therefore happen, should Slipper return to the Speakers chair is that Labor expels Rudd from its ranks.
by confessions on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Interesting primary votes:
ALP – 28
LNP – 46
GRN – 11
OTH – 15
I make that 42.8-57.2 on 2010 preference flows, so there must be a lot of rounding going on here…
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/crime-and-misconduct-commission-clears-mal-brough-for-comeback-bid/story-fn59niix-1226432915526
Broughy is back in the hunt!
Whoo
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Boerwar,
Turn your Super into cash and hide it under the mattress.
by C@tmomma on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Oh, come off it mate, you pick outliers like Lord Monckton.
Follow the trend mate, it will set you free.
And they told him to go, then he refused!
Bullshit! You picked an outlier rather than looking at the trend which was around 54 or so.
BUT WHAT IF THE SWING IS ELEVENTY SEVEN!?
They are about the same as Gillard, but there’s a big difference, the Coalition is cleaning up on the 2pp!
WISHFUL THINKING MATE!
by ShowsOn on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
C@tmomma,
Yes. At seven percent, Spain is in junk bond territory.They’re farqued.
by smithe on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
I’m just wunderen who has had the agenda for the last couple of years, cause ya’ll is just a simple folk an we dun hand something to sumone who already done got it.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Gary,
That would be Mal the Leper?
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:08 pm
the dodgiest number in MurdochPoll is the +50% increase in Other (from 10 to 15).
how many people really belive this? They have just moved some of the ALP primary into Other, to get the primary down under 28
dodgy brothers, aimed at getting a Gillard in trouble story as being trumpetted tonight by the #newscorpse hacks
by sprocket_ on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Ducky – This thread is about polls and I made a comment about why I think the polls are as they appear, you dismiss it, not by argument but by claiming that I am trolling.
To be a troll I would have to be making a comment that was not connected to the thread and or was aimed at attacking others here and I don’t believe I have done either of those things.
My comment put forward a potential step that has been used by countless pollies across the ages.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
These paper bods doing submissions is hilarious!
“We knew nuffink!”
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
C@tmomma
Cash is king alright.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Danny
Menstruation? I remember reading a theory that all those initiation ceremonies where teenage males get various bits of their bodies cut up so blood runs everywhere is to mimic the beginning of menstruation in females, as a crossing of a life milestone.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Others 15 (+5)
That should tell you a lot about how people view politics at the moment.
by spur212 on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
confessions,
If the ALP can force Craig Thomson out to sit on the crossbenches, then they should do the same to Kevin Rudd, for what are far worse crimes against the party.
No great loss and probably a nett positive.
by C@tmomma on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Ok but lets consider this…
If the Liberal Party had a vote of 28% would they dump Abbott?
so y they no dump Julia?
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:11 pm
mexico,
You prevaricate and have no argument. Be gone!
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:12 pm
sprocket@124,
True dat!
by C@tmomma on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Why didnt they just make up a number like 2% primary vote for the ALP then?
You guys are unbelievable….you wont accept the popular opinion about your beloved leader, and start making up stuff about Newspoll releasing fraudulent polling as part of a sinister attempt to destabilise Gillard.
Get out more guys, these polls are not news out there in the real world…
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Steve Canane just said “wank”
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
sprocket_ @ 124
That would be one of the stupidest posts I have read since Truthy got banned.
Newspoll are commissioned by News to conduct the poll.
No poll can afford to risk it’s reputation by manipulating results as you describe.
by bemused on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Centre 92 I wish that made sense to me and I thought there was even a remote chance that Abbott’s job was under threat. It just seems to me that both side have locked in positions. The Coalition because, despite Abbott, have a sticky winning lead and Labor because they have hitched themselves to Gillard come what may.
It’s looking like the longest and most untidy election campaign ever. One side following the joker to the throne and the other side following the doomed-one like lemmings.
by davidwh on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Just follow the trend, Labor’s primary vote has been in the high 20s or low 30s for more than a year.
The 2pp has been stuck in the mid 40s for over a year too.
That’s all you need to know.
by ShowsOn on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Gary,
Your penis is implanted on your forehead?
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Any fresh leader for the ALP will undoubtedly boost the ALP PV.
29% satisfied with PM
28% PV for the ALP
Its pretty clear whats driving the vote.
And other commenters are write that the coalition could be vulnerable with Abbott rating, if and only if, there is an ALP change in leadership.
Carr, Rudd or Smith are the only ones who could pull it off.
Rudd would win and Smith/Carr would save some furniture. Of those two I prefer Carr.
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Mob Lib
They’re beginning to see the writing on the walls as Liberal supporters on PB were by early 2007…
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
ML
OK, he can post on Bludger, then. (He had difficulty keeping a straight face thereafter.)
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:13 pm
Sprocket: part of my problem with the allocation of preferences as per the last election is that Labor waverers are NOT going straight to the Coalition; they are parking their votes with the Independents and Greens.
Despite this, preferences are still allocated 60-40 to the Coalition.
Perhaps the best example of what is happening at the moment is when we compare the predicted-by-the-polls outcome in the Melbourne by-election with what actually happened on the day.
The reality is the preferences came back to Labor at a rate that was not anticipated by said polls …
by Danny Lewis on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:14 pm
And yes Howard did have worse numbers than this and we all know how courageous the libs were then…
by Henry on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Really, Leveson is a joy! These who represent the papers are seriously wanking, and ‘sHonour is having none of it.
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Leveson is on.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Is Simon Crean planning a Womens Weekly article anytime soon?
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
Lordy, inspired by vulva and vagina I mentioned some anglo-saxon terms and now I have a post in moderation.
Must be time for sleepybyes.
Good night all.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:15 pm
On those numbers both the majors have lost ground to others which is not surprising given recent events.
by davidwh on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:16 pm