Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Bails didn’t want $100,000,000.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm
From the article at 2002:
I really can’t see how Hockey could be seen as a better option. He’s a complete nong, and his pressers are generally worse embarrassments than Abbott’s. The one the other day, when his major contribution was to moan that he doesn’t take Emerson seriously, that was bad enough. He carried on about the end of the mining boom based on one prediction from Access Economics, strutted about demanding the Government do something about it. Then he fluffed about over his own party’s spending commitments, before rambling about money pots and money trees. The reason nobody asked him more than a couple of questions was that he clearly had nothing to add to the discussion and he was barely coherent.
But that one was outdone by his response to the interest rate cuts, just repeating that the numbers were “extraordinary” and saying “the numbers are the numbers”. The man’s a buffoon. I’ve said before that his preparation for a presser – or even a biggish speech – is to bring in some barely relevant stat he’s dug up, parade it about as if it’s the final word on the subject, and ramble for the rest of the time. He can’t think on his feet, but worse than that is that he tries to, every time. At least Abbott knows enough to shut up and stick to his lines.
If Hockey shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near Treasury, then it goes double that he shouldn’t even be considered a candidate to run the country. There’s nothing worse than a know-nothing know-it-all. And that snarky edge he gets to him whenever the questioning gets a bit difficult, that doesn’t bode well at all.
by Aguirre on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:07 pm
So Victoria and NSW may still agree to a trial yet.
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Where’s little bigmouth?
by BK on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:09 pm
BOF didn’t want $300,000,000.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:09 pm
24 has no CC think everyone has good hearing,
by Schnappi on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:09 pm
BK,
I think someone shut it for him.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:10 pm
LAB 38 to 30 = negative reporting and carbon tax fear campaign.
LNP 43.6 to 47 = voter’s disinterest and not thinking for themselves.
OTH 6.6 to 11 = voters couldn’t give a sh!t.
GRN 11.8 to 12 =
PEAK PEWNY R.I.P.
by Centre on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Schnappi
Edreeder.com does News 24.
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:10 pm
@lizfoschia: NSW has proposed to redirect $190m it was already spending on dis services in Hunter to NDIS trial 2/2
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Michelle: “Ms Gillard …”
Still can’t bring herself to say PM.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:12 pm
On Our ABC radio this morning in Perth – John McGlew or is it McGlue or Magoo? – in any event, a very lack-lustre stand it for Mother Hutchinson introduced C Ulhmann and Smith as the “two outstanding political journalists in Canberra.”
They were flogging their book and McGlew? I don’t know why he has this gig as he is as soft as a boiled turnip and just as insipid.
What gets into the heads of ABC management to employ this dill?
I can’t tell but I think his is a soft-lettuce leaf Liberal. He does not ask hard questions of anyone and sound as if he feels talk-back callers are of nuisance value only.
Anyone else in Perth actually listen to this guy?
by Tricot on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:12 pm
@latikambourke: PM Gillard – VIC and NSW can still put proposals to me which I will consider for a launch site and it wouldn’t need to come back to #COAG.
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Fight!
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:14 pm
davidwh @ 2044
It isn’t except in the minds of the deluded here.
Julia Gillard has pulled off the extraordinary feat of registering lower popularity than Abbott. Perhaps it is unfair to blame it all on her. The circumstances of her becoming PM and the poor advice she has received have certainly helped.
by bemused on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:14 pm
guytaur
thanks ,but how on tv,
by Schnappi on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:15 pm
PPM 50/30
That was B 4 Ear Wax leaked!
*outski*
by Centre on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Schnappi
Only other suggestion I have is the help section of abc.net.au for information.
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:18 pm
bemused Gillard has more substance than Abbott by some distance but it doesn’t seem to matter. Too many circumstances of poor judgement, plus the difficulties of bending to minority partners and finally the enemy within. A lot for a leader to overcome.
by davidwh on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:18 pm
BOF spat dummy. Colin spits dummy.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:19 pm
guytaur
Normally they have Cc, but not for PM pressers
by Schnappi on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Dissing SA, Tas and ACT as being “small trials.”
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Bails ? Can’t Do ?
by poroti on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Bails pretty good. Can’t Do who?
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
davidwh @ 2068
Yes, and still the idiotic Finns rabbits on about his ‘Bisons’ and others pick up the theme. It is not about policy. When will the penny drop?
The ALP is a mile ahead in the policy and economic management stakes. The Fibs aren’t even in sight. Clearly there are other factors holding the ALP back. Now I wonder what they could possibly be
by bemused on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Whack!! Jay Weatherill just put down Barnett – but did it with style.
by BK on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Centre the PM’s PPM lead over Abbott for August 2010 was an average of 50/35. She basically maintained that type of lead until the end of March 2011.
by davidwh on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:22 pm
The way the average voter sees it
@John_Hanna: He said, she said .. #NDIS excuses abound. Switched off.
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Hendo joins the bashing. Fight!
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:23 pm
bemused what davidwh
didnt tell , it was the media who spread propaganda through the last 2weeks and still couldn’t get their man home
liberals under any other leader would have won
by Meguire Bob on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:23 pm
davidwh
what about the last 2weeks , the media was against gillard , labor shouldnt have retain government
Abbott lost the election and will do so again
by Meguire Bob on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:24 pm
In fact the PM had a small net satisfied rating throughout August 2010 while Abbott had a net unsatisfied rating. Both leaders have suffered badly in ratings because of the type of politics we have endured since the last election.
by davidwh on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Has Can-Do pissed off early?
by BK on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Meguire Bob @ 2079
So what does that tell you about the ALP‘s standing in that election? We went from a clear winning position to the closest of calls when opposed by an acknowledged moron.
by bemused on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm
lizzie @ 1868
Thank you. Best laugh of the day.
by Boerwar on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Of course, it is all part of the The Hopeless Govt stuff that the Libs are running.
by Lynchpin on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Sitting on Henderson’s left. Making a duck on a stick look lively.
by This little black duck on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
I just don’t see Abbott’s unpopularity being an issue while both leaders are equally unpopular.
Abbott’s unpopularity, and notoriously scrutiny shy campaign, is only going to be an increasingly important factor the longer he has to string his bogus he-man act out to the election (which is why he has always been desperate for an early election).
He is not just disliked and untrusted by many, he is also viewed with considerable fear and loathing, even on his own side, with considerable justification. Difficult to see how that can be sustained.
Don’t know if it will be enough to affect the basic election outcome, but it could quite easily be enough to lose a close election, and even if he wins it is highly likely to make his time as PM a very problematic one for the Coalition.
by Just Me on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
BK
Obscured behind the full sized premiers ?
by poroti on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
@sueGCB: So they are calling the Lib states the Gang of Four now?
by guytaur on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:27 pm
MB the PM’s lead was 50/37 just before the election and 50/34 just after the election.
Basically Abbott has never been popular.
by davidwh on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:28 pm
bemused
i will admit it was a mistake by gillard calling the election early
if she let the term run out she would have gotten a majority
But it shows she isnt scared and will take the risk
by Meguire Bob on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Why did Newman bother to go to COAG, waste of money Noddy. Get back to Brisbane.
by ruawake on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm
When you think about it, it’s a pretty extraordinary situation. You’d expect people to vote for the party which is best at running the country. That would be the primary function of Government, and the only one a government ought to be assessed on. And yet every argument we hear against the ALP is a variation on, “Oh yes, they’re clearly the best at running the country, but…”
But what? A lot of people have been duped into believing the sole function of a government is to run a PR campaign for three years until the next election comes around. It’s no way to run a country. And if the ALP – well, most of them – consider policy more important than politics at the moment, then I say good on them.
by Aguirre on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Exactly.
by davidwh on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Oh , Ducky Pops
by Schnappi on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:30 pm
thats right davidwh, it will be the same again people will sway away from voting for the liberals, because abbott will not improve the country
by Meguire Bob on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Here we go .This is how the tories will make it all the PM’s fault.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/opinion/political-news/newman-hopeful-of-disability-deal-20120725-22p2d.html#ixzz21c5YjxH1
by poroti on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm
Should have said Paddle Pops are cold , Ducky Pops are Hot , Hot
by Schnappi on Jul 25, 2012 at 4:31 pm