Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.fedcourt.gov.au/courtdocuments/ashby-commonwealth-of-australia/20-Jul-2012-Book-of-Respondents-evidence-V2-Pt4.pdf
Just testing to see what page I have or do not have
by Schnappi on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Barrie Cassidy joins in the slamming of the Lib premiers on NDIS.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-26/cassidy-shirking-responsibility-for-the-disabled/4156844?WT.svl=theDrum
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:45 pm
BK
Yes an interesting collection of pollies. A pity even one ALP name is on it.
by guytaur on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:45 pm
gun laws which = gunlaws under which shooting deaths halved by 2004 to around 6000
by roaldan1000 on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Ah, the old “can’t name the current interest rate” trick.
This time it’s Joe Hockey’s turn.
http://www.news.com.au/national/shadow-treasurer-joe-hockey-gets-official-interest-rate-wrong/story-fndo4eg9-1226436011924
by citizen on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Davidwh @3596
I guess slipper could say, these are the kind of texts i received since i didnt do what those text suggested.
The plot to get me started
something like that anyway
by Meguire Bob on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Meguire Bob
All from the Lyons Forum, no doubt.
Read and weep. It’s a sinister presence.
https://www.efa.org.au/Issues/Censor/lyons.html
by BK on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:50 pm
News Ltd calling Joe:
Pack your bags Joe, time to spend more time with the kids.
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Like he said to Barnett in the article below about the GST carve up. Lips moving but saying nothing of worth.
If they win the election though, all bets are off and they will do as they please -
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Barnetts-GST-claims-reasonable-Hockey-WK5C7?OpenDocument&src=hp16
by dave on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:52 pm
MB I would think anyone in the LNP who believed they could do any deal with Slipper in January 2012 was suffering from serious delusionment and deserves anything that comes their way. The bloke just shat on his party from a great height.
But a good conspiracy is great fodder for discussion boards and every now and then one actually has some substance. I am pretty confident that everyone implicated in the Slipper issue will get outed. There is just too much digging going on for that not to be the case.
by davidwh on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Short version of Coalition policy.
by BK on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:54 pm
So Joe when all the State Premiers come a knockin’, and they will, will you legislate for an increase in the GST rate?
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Poor Joe, a nice bloke but lost in the treasury portfolio. You would think he would have the cash rate branded into his brain every morning before he hits the hustings.
by davidwh on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:55 pm
BK
The Lyons forum motto “The foundation of a Nation’s greatness is in the homes of its people”. A bit like the old German “Kinder, Küche, Kirche”
by poroti on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:55 pm
In all fairness it was the other way around.
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Interest rates will always be unknown under a Coalition government.
by BK on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:57 pm
We’ve all done it, although not usually betrayed as comprehensively as Slipper was for out troubles.
The part I found disturbing was when Ashby, supposedly “pissingblood, lots of it” sick, was at the motel laid on by News, forwarding Slipper’s increasingly concerned texts about his health to everyone, including Doane and Lewis (and I think Brough). Then saying that he didn’t want to reply to Slipper.
Finally it all got too much for him and he broke down and cried in front of the hacks from News.
I’d have loved to have seen the looks on the hard-boiled faces when the Twink chucked a teary over the stress of it all.
Also wonder what Uhlmann knew of this in advance?
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:57 pm
rua there wasn’t much fairness all round however member get dis-endorsed but few do a deal with the other side of politics in the tight situation Slipper did.
by davidwh on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:57 pm
pototi
The insidiousness of the Lyons Forum really troubles me.
by BK on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Slipper is still the Speaker, as ruawake says, he is still carrying out all his duties apart form taking the chair in the reps. He can return to the chair as soon as the federal police have dealt with the criminal charges against him (the Cabcharge stuff) and cleared him. He does not have to wait for the other civil stuff to drag through the court.
As many have pointed out here over and over again, if every MP/Senator facing civil action had to stand aside both houses would be half empty. Even Abbott would not be able to appear – his case is due in November, I think.
by leone on Jul 26, 2012 at 5:59 pm
I’ll be – We don’t want to increase the GST, but the States need it because Labor stuffed the states…..blame Labor.
Same old, same old.
by dave on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Bushfire Bill,
Ashby was continually going out on a limb though with where he was taking the conversations.
by Space Kidette on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:00 pm
BK ‘pototi’
dreaming of a beer?
by Gecko on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Gecko
A vodkaian slip perhaps?
by BK on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:01 pm
Gillard becomming well versed in dealing with all these job losses. Says a lot really.
by rummel on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:02 pm
It is so good to see Sloppy Joe referred to as ‘bumbling’. Let’s hope it soon progresses to ‘embattled’.
It’s even better to see that at long last someone has begun to point out just how ignorant and useless Sloppy really is. And I loved the sly little dig at J Bishop too.
by leone on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I meant Abbott promising him a seat, if he lost Fisher Abbott told him he would get Fairfax. A lie from Abbott that made Slipper do what he did.
It may be convenient for the LNP to paint him as the bad guy, but he was not. He was shafted.
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:04 pm
MM @ 3519,
William Lane
– and, of course Mary Gilmore among others.
That is great news.
Leroy,
Thanks for the information about the prospective (and prospects of) runners in the Scullin preselection stakes.
by fiona on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:05 pm
Maybe that’s who Lewis was protecting – not as a source, but as a fellow conduit.
by kezza2 on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:05 pm
How about Newmans 5,000 and counting job losses rummie?
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Awww. Without the HSU funds to use as her own, Kathy Jackson decides her own cash is not worth risking
by sprocket_ on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:06 pm
interesting to see how it all unfolded – Ashby’s case looks to be in huge trouble
also good to know that Slipper’s wife knows about his life choices – would be an awful way to find out if she didn’t
by womble on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:06 pm
A nice guy? Yeah, that’s the meme.
For mine, I think he’s a nasty piece of work. The type who smiles while they are stabbing you in the back.
by Danny Lewis on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:07 pm
And the 15,000 in NSW thanks to Fatty O’Barrell
by Space Kidette on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:07 pm
meguire bob. The reason that I don’t think there is anything to bring down Abbott in the Slipper-Ashby texts is not that I’m a Coalition supporter. I’m not: nothing would make me happier that to see something there that would take out Abbott, but it simply isn’t there.
by meher baba on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:07 pm
He should be stinkin’ fired if he didn’t know the current cash rate.
Not like it was only announced today.
FCS Beasely was sunk by a Rove.
by kezza2 on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Knocking off 20,000+ public servants says more… voting against assistance to steel industry and car manufacturing… says even more again.
by Gecko on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:08 pm
“We Will Get Him”
Found that, and spent an hour further searching, and did not find the limp lettuce reason that it referred to a cab driver. during that search did not find a cab driver mentioned anywhere.
by Schnappi on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Every job loss is a worry, it really is.
Kouk places things into perspective though.
Says it all really -
@TheKouk: Did you know that in the last 40 years, only the Gillard/Rudd and Whitlam Govts have never had an unemployment rate above 6%?
little johnnie howard the worst treasurer in Australia’s History -
by dave on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Shellbell: quagmire indeed! Dien Bien Phu-ish. The judge, having read the short original claim, might’ve thought this would have been a tasty morsel: now he’s being locked in the sausage factory. I can only imagine that the Commonwealth as the ‘model’ litigant must be including ALL that material just to paint the entire often yawnful picture.
True that strike outs usually have to be short-sharp-shocks. But then this isn’t a ‘no case to answer’ but something murkier, and a very discretionary or at least subjective test. Justice Rares can either say ‘Go away Ashby, I have genuine litigants to serve’ or ‘Go away, Cth, let Ashby have his day at trial’.
by Graeme on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Ruawake
OH thought he heard Can’tDo has cut the taxi subsidy for the disabled.
Do you know if this is true?
by Dee on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Wow
Been reading through the Ashby tapes. Surely he will withdraw his case. Absolutely damning!!
Ashby seems like a nutter or a deliberate plant
Feel sorry for Slipper. He really trusted the guy.
by daretotread on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Yep the $6.50 subsidy has been axed.
by ruawake on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Dee,
Yep: http://www.news.com.au/national/queensland-government-scraps-650-wheelchair-passenger-bonus-for-taxi-drivers/story-fndo4ckr-1226435504571
by fiona on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:15 pm
DannyLewis @ 3632
I agree about Hockey. He really is a grubby piece of work. The standard private school bully.
by feeney on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:15 pm
The Drum talking about Wayne Swan as PM LOL
by womble on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:16 pm
thought exactly the same myself. Lewis, true to form, is lying to the court (through his barrister). The “We will Get Him” text clearly is Lewis saying #newscorpse will get Slipper for being a Rat to the Abbott cause
by sprocket_ on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:17 pm
so sad that on February 1, Slipper has to ask what “lmao” means.
Ashby tells him “laugh my arse off”
A very few hours later, sets the whole shebang in motion.
by kezza2 on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Ashby having his day at trial, eventually, still keeps Slipper out of the Chair, unfortunately.
Not a bad outcome for the forces against him though. Someone there has deep pockets.
by dave on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:17 pm
I think Lewis is in the clear on the “we will get him” – pdf page 60-61 – looks to be about the car/driver to me
by womble on Jul 26, 2012 at 6:19 pm