Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
psyclaw,
I guess you could say the dental problems were resolved, 3 extracted teeth later.
I had massive infection in my mandible from an infected capped tooth, as it turns out.
by C@tmomma on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:52 am
davidwh,
SA, Tas and ACT are happy with the State/Federal arrangements why not the other states ?
by Doyley on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:53 am
@Scott_ST: If all Queensland politicians took a 30% pay cut, it would raise close to the $5 million a year needed to fund the #NDIS #fundtheNDISideas
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:54 am
Remember the Flood Levy?
Queenslanders whinged and bitched about that, vowing they’d never give to charity again &etc, preferring to rely on schooner glasses at the end of bars into which you put your loose change, and sausage sizzles. Raised about 1/10th of what was needed.
Then when the Levy money came it was either too slow, too fast, too little or too much (“Canberra bureaucrats hamfistedly wasting money”), or was being rorted.
Now suddenly they want the Feds to institute another Levy so they can bash Gillard over the head with it.
Meanwhile, Abbott tells everyone he’ll be PM in a few months to a year, and that Gillard would be better off going into “Caretaker” mode, and not changing anything. He warns businesses about to sign up for Climate and other initiatives that he’ll cut them off at the knees when elected. Ditto for the ABC if they dare to say Labor is in with a chance.
The hubris is enormous.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:55 am
guytaur
Dont agree.
You either support a system of law which governs international relations or you dont. Ecquador is frustrating that system and giving succour to a man who has broken bail and now creates a major diplomatic issue.
How does the interview play out – whose jurisdiction are the prosecutors in, Ecquador? What protection against self-incrimination does Assange have? And for the biggie – who is footing the bill for all of this?
What encouragement are you giving to extraditees with this novel arrangement. When Captain Dragan hid on the mid-North Coast of NSW after the High Court revoked his bail, should he have gone to the Serbian embassy and if he had, would we have invited Croatian prosecutors to pay him a visit?
The only reality is Ecuador may suffer a breaking of diplomatic ties and any foreign aid which it receives from nations which believe in a system of law.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:56 am
Shell bell
Agree with Guytaur
The weakness of the Swedish case and the strength of Assange’s is the refusal of the swedes to interview him.
These seems ridiculous and tricky. if the Swedes JUST want him for the sex charges then why not interview him and either formally charge him OR let it drop. Simple. I am sure that there would be lots of crimes – smuggling, murder etc for which the Swedish prosecutors travel internationally to interview suspects or witnesses. The fact that they have never done this despite Assange making himself available suggests another agenda. Of course they would be within their rights to charge Assange for the cost of travel but it would not be a much compared with lawyers fees
The Ecuadorian’s have now put the wood on the Swedes. Put up or shut up.
by daretotread on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:58 am
shellbell
You are wrong. You are ignoring international norms about people who claim asylum.
Ecuador does not need to let Swedish Authorities question Assange. He is an asylum seeker. There are clear laws that apply.
So the Swedes legally have this chance to question or to forgo questioning.
That is legal reality.
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:59 am
The Coal premiers will cave in over the NDIS. Every paper since yesterday have been carrying stories like this. Especually the Curious Snail.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/ndis-spells-hope-for-geelong-family-20120726-22vg8.html#ixzz21mgEmdtL
by poroti on Jul 27, 2012 at 11:59 am
guytaur
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012/jul/26/ecuador-julian-assange-extradition-us
by poroti on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:01 pm
It’s a trap!
by Think Big on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:02 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:02 pm
@smh: National News: Abbott rejects NDIS levy proposal http://t.co/jT7NpjNA #australia
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Julia is giving Newman the rounds of the kitchen.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Oh please.
From the second Abbott withdrew from the bipartisan climate change panel every single act of the Coalition has been about damaging Labor. Every single thing they say and do has been about damage. Had Gillard said, we’re going with a levy, the Coaltion would have been screaming from the roof tops about great big new taxes, pink batts, why wasn’t there a trial etc. And you talk about being reasonable?
The only reason they do that is for political runs on the board. And you bemoan playing politics with disabilities?
Well, ok, the Coalition’s Tea Party tactics have got them up and running in the polls. Awesome, great for them. But there are times when those tactics start damaging the community, times like now. You either accept those tactics and the damage they do to the commuity or you criticise them.
by Son of foro on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:04 pm
And now Bails is copping it.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:09 pm
BOF’n'Bails refused to let their people speak to Jenny’s people.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:11 pm
PM and Macklin absolutely smashing these scumbag lib premiers.
Totally flaying them with facts, brilliant presser.
by Henry on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:11 pm
@JuliaGillard: Meeting with staff at dal Cafe & Catering in Geelong to talk NDIS. TeamJG http://t.co/zeqVLZIb
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Defence Press release – Exercise ‘Pitch Black’. Part thereof:
This will be watched with great interest by all sorts of people.
by CTar1 on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:14 pm
This “If we didn’t spend THIS then we could have THAT…” gambit is exactly what the shock jocks use.
One old crank on 2GB yeaterday rang to say he’d been trying to have the pothole at the end of his street fixed for years, so Gillard should make those repairs before she spent money on bludging cripples, boat people and solar energy wankery.
They don’t see the point: if we all picked our own pet projects for Priority #1, then nothing would get done at all.
The assumption seems to be that governments are only capable of doing one thing at a time. Indeed, 2GB shock jocks don’t even give Gillard that favour. They will not accept that anything she does has any chance of being anything other than a debacle.
This kind of thinking alolows idiots like Hockey to say “Everything will always be better under a Coalition government.”
It’s doing terrible damage to the economy and the nation’s psyche, though. Like waiting to decide whether to turn off life support. The entire nation is on hold, wrongly, but surely.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:15 pm
What a contrast. PM goes to an enterprise employing disabled people in a flourishing business. LOTO goes to engineering firm to say no no no to disabled people.
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Re the article linked at #4311: the blood pressure levels of the fiscally-responsible members of the Liberal Party – Robb, Sinodinos, et al – must be rising exponentially at the moment. Whatever savings measures they have been able to dream up – and all specific savings measures have political costs of one sort or another – Abbott has already committed about 3 times over. No defence cuts, NDIS totally funded out of “general revenue”, no redistribution of education funding under Gonski. Plus abolishing the mining tax and carbon tax but (possibly) not abolishing anything they pay for.
As potential future economic managers of Australia, the Libs under Abbott are a total joke. I’d love to see one of the ratings agencies downgrade our credit rating on the basis of the prospect of Abbott becoming PM and blowing the budget. Notwithstanding the penchant of credit agencies for conservative political parties, this can’t be entirely ruled out.
After all, these New York desk jockeys are not renowned for their insight into the world outside the US, and they might see a guy who heads a “Liberal Party” and who is talking about reversing lots of spending cuts and paying for expensive schemes out of “general revenue” as being some sort of dangerous socialist (and they’d be right: Abbott himself is far more of a socialist than Julia Gillard).
by meher baba on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Facts are only facts if they are reported.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Fiona@4018
I must thank you for the Pasquelli link, great read
http://exkiap.net/articles/miscellaneous/pasquarelli.htm
(yeah yeah, it takes me a while to catch up :p )
(and agree with Debloney, skilled at manipulating crazies and PR )
by David McRae on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:17 pm
What an absolutely brilliant presser by the PM.
Grattan is stating the bleedin obvious. As I said earlier, Ballieu does not have political capital in Vic.
by victoria on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Bushfire Bill: you seem to spend a lot of your time listening to right-wing shock jocks. Have you ever heard the expression “get a life?”
by meher baba on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:18 pm
MacklinJ did her bit too.
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:19 pm
meher,
Your problem is?
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Ballieu and his mob may be the best gift federal Labor gets
by victoria on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:20 pm
meher baba
I don’t feel to sorry for Joe – staring at being Treasurer with Tones just saying ‘Joe will figure it out’.
Will Joe just say ‘Andrew’s got the actual numbers’ as he exits the room as quickly as possible?
by CTar1 on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:22 pm
guytaur
Under your system of international law, persons are entitled to avoid international law orders (extradition), break bail and seek asylum with whoever will take them.
No nation with a proper regard for intenational law would countenance that for a moment.
Your system, if it exists, benefits war criminals etc. Tony Mokbel should have made a run for the local friendly embassy when he was ordered to be extradited from Greece and seek asylum there rathert than face drugs and violence offences in Victoria.
Another legacy of your system is that people with a genuine basis for resisting extradition will never be granted bail pending the applications since Assange has demonstrated that bail conditions are not a deterrent.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:23 pm
@QPublicServant: Elective surgery on hold as Campbell Newman cuts $50m from RBWH & $80m from northside hospitals | Courier Mail #qldpol http://t.co/PQQ1R28o
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:24 pm
shellbell
The system exists. This is why the police in the UK cannot march into the embassy to arrest him. Legal reality.
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:25 pm
4327: If you’re referring to my comment to BB, my problem is that I know other Labor people who for some reason spend lots of time listening to right-wing shock jocks and I’m sorry to say that, after a while, they start to absorb some of their ideas.
The world is full of places to go, people to meet, books to read, movies to see, paths in the bush to walk along. There is even Radio National to listen to. There is no reason in the world to listen to shock jocks unless you are the sort of person who agrees with them.
But to each their own…..
by meher baba on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:26 pm
@QPublicServant: Elective surgery on hold as Campbell Newman cuts $50m from RBWH & $80m from northside hospitals | Courier Mail #qldpol http://t.co/PQQ1R28o
..
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:27 pm
@ABCNews24: Foreign Minister Bob Carr is due to deliver a speech about Australia’s foreign policy. We’ll bring that to you live from 12:45PM AEST
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Shellbell
Here is another case.
@LondonLive: .@ravisomaiya reports that an Olympic runner in his 20s from Sudan is seeking political asylum in London. http://t.co/64Wj3gpH
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Guytaur:
At the risk of sounding as if I’m making a habit of agreeing the BushfireBill, he is right when he says:
Governments have to get a range of things done with the resources that they can bring to hand when they are demanded. While I’m not convinced politicians deserve the pay they are getting, or that the system we use to select them is close to optimal, but that has nothing at all to do with what projects we should fund, or how.
Deciding what is a priority is always to some extent subjective. There are some basic criteria for those of us on the left — will it lead in the long run to a more inclusive society?; does it address a compelling need well attested amongst the disadvantaged?; will it produce meaningful data about its progress towards the desired outcome along timelines salient to those of us interested in the program?; is it maintainable over time or will the program design require redesign in the near future? –but these don’t really help us distinguish between competing programs, especially those that deliver most of the benefits a long way into the future.
Most “opportunity cost” pleading is in my opinion, trolling in defence of the status quo.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:29 pm
And the Ecuadorians can’t get him out of the UK either so it’s all a matter of time.
by CTar1 on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:30 pm
guytaur
It only exists to the extent that Ecquador can contemplate what to do with Assange. Its options are to honour international law or not.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:31 pm
meher baba @4333
Why listen to shock jocks on occassion ? Simple “Know thy enemy”
by poroti on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:31 pm
I’ll do a Fran Barlow: “Each to his own …”
by This little black duck on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:33 pm
CTar1
We will see. Are UK police going to start searching every vehicle leaving and entering the small embassy. Same for any other way people can be smuggled out.
Politics of such moves either successful or not will indeed be interesting,
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:34 pm
gutaur
Now you are comparing apples with something which is not even a fruit.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:34 pm
I never listen to shock jocks but rely on PB to let me know what is happening.
Qualification – I do listen extensively to the ABC so if they are considered shock jockey then ignore the above.
by davidwh on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:36 pm
shellbell
So you say every dissident student that fled China should be returned to face execution or torture in contrast to Bob Hawkes decision do you?
Either you support countries granting asylum or you do not.
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Howes continues his crusade to turn Australia into one great big sheltered workshop.
So Chevron should keep losing money hand over fist on an economically unviable project because they are developing another project.
by Diogenes on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:37 pm
4340: I don’t believe shock jocks really represent “the enemy” (by which you presumably mean the enemy of the Labor Party/progressive thinkers).
I think the overwhelming majority of their audience are the elderly of either political persuasion, who are generally rusted on voters one way or the other. Because we have compulsory voting, they don’t exercise the sort of influence they have in the US (where they persuade many people who otherwise might stay at home to turn out and vote for the Republicans).
Both the hosts and the callers are tedious and repetitive IMO. My old friends the NSW Right have paid them far too much attention to them in recent years: I can remember when Michael Costa just about lived on Alan Jones’s show. I think the best strategy for all intelligent, progressive people is to ignore them altogether.
But, each to his own or to each his own or whatever.
by meher baba on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:39 pm
@abcnews: Clowns Without Borders helps make children smile despite disaster, poverty and war http://t.co/qIS2WqWO @rossmonique reports
by guytaur on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:41 pm
guytaur
You are better than that. Persons subject to judicial review confirming their extradition should not obtain asylum at the embassy of their choice so as to frustrate international law.
Tell me what is wrong with that proposition. For starters its does not offend any of the examples you have given since we started this debate.
by shellbell on Jul 27, 2012 at 12:41 pm