Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
The fact that Abbott is ahead of Gillard as PPM means she is not up to it.
How could anymore be less popular than the likes of one T Abbott?
I predict November/December the long knives will come out…that’s if she’s lucky.
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Well if that’s right, that Gillard leads Abbott 46/40 as PPM, Abbott is headed for defeat.
The bad net approval figures for both leaders REFLECTS the constant negative media reporting for Gillard, hence the 44/56 2PP;
and the severe UNPOPULARITY of Abbott.
Abbott can’t win on those figures.
by Centre on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:42 pm
BK,
Straight sets: 6 – 0; 6 – 0; 6 – 0. Thank you Umpire, thank you ball boys!
by scorpio on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:43 pm
If what Danny says is about to happen does happen, these polls will mean jackshitzen.
by Space Kidette on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Centre
I said Abbott is ahead on PPM
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:43 pm
But as Rummel pointed out, Abbott’s support always goes up when he is out of the country and more or less invisible.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Sem sem I C
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:44 pm
As has been said repeatedly: the problem isn’t the policies. People are confused about the policies.
The problem is the PM and everything voters associate with her and it’s relationship to how people view politics.
Possum picked it last September and he is right
by spur212 on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Yep, the ALP should base all its strategies on conspiracy theories.
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:45 pm
What is Stephen Spencer talking about?
by davidwh on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:45 pm
C@tmomma
We were in Paris during the height of the GFC and for a year. It seemed to me then that we were not nearly out of the woods. I still think we are in the woods, only deeper because, globally, the QE bolts have been shot and only marginal returns remain for any future QE.
Now there are about 20 big banks that are going to have what is left of their arses sued off by fundies, nations and corporates who have been ripped off by Libor-fiddling.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:46 pm
spur212
Have to agree there..
by rosemour on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:46 pm
bg,
Did you see the first two-letter word I opened the sentence with?
by Space Kidette on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:46 pm
Obama is such a dignified, good man.
Looks very thin though.
by Henry on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Just imagine how good the vote would be if he left it to Turnbull?!!!!!
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
This has had zero to do with the PM, simple administrative duties any in the job would do. The economy, yes thanks to Hawke/Keating, boom times before, China stimulus, our Stimulus package…. again nothing to do with the current PM and not dependent on the current PM.
PM job is a leadership role, leading the country, not leading or representing the wishes of unelected back room persons, or party brokers. PM’s job is all about leadership, any seat warmer can get bills through parliament and the Senate if it is friendly, and they necessarily are.
The funniest line of the night award has to go to one of these statements..
Yes, don’t panic, the bow of the ship is still above water, pretty soon it will all come up again.
haha… just too funny.
Lost of humorous comments tonight. Thanks.
by Thomas Paine. on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:47 pm
Lets wait and see what the ALP geniuses can say tomorrow to distract from their “July 1 will be a game changer” lines.
I am sure they have something super clever in preparation.
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:48 pm
maybe #newscorpse is feeding dodgy figures to JamesJ?
nothing this criminal organisation would suprise me – bugging phones of greiving people, bribing policemen, publishing blatnat lies on their front pages, bullying governments – where does rigging polls sit within this?
MurdochPoll is a joke
by sprocket_ on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Abbott netsat -30 and dissatisfaction 61. Both his worst ever.
Minimum proportion of voters supporting Opposition but not its leader 17%. Equal highest for a single Newspoll.
Rolling average for above stat 14%. Highest in last 25 years.
Combined PM/Opp Leader netsat -63. Second worst for Abbott/Gillard. In worst 10 for last 25 years.
Tempting to think that something must break, perhaps two somethings …
by Kevin Bonham on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Only other possible issue that I can think of that may have adversely impacted the ALP primary recently was the outbreak of strong statements/threats in support of JG by a number of union officials.
This was not a good look and as expected was easily whipped up by the LNP scum using faceless men and unelected union bosses rhetoric.
by CO on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:48 pm
Well it’s been corrected.
Still not good enough for Abbott to justify the confidence of his prospects in the media.
Abbott would need to go for the Liberals to win.
by Centre on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:49 pm
C@tmomma:
I will go searching. Thank you, and glad you got there in the end!
by confessions on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:49 pm
My reading of the polls has basically been unchanged all year.
Economy is not performing as well as some here like to think it is, sure I have read the bisons and on paper they are truly impressive and while we can marvel at low inflation and low unemployment but out there in the business world, that low inflation is a sign of sluggish activity.
The business community outside of the mining sector does not see a boom.
The Government is seen as divided with too much talk about leadership and most of it is coming from within the Government.
The Government is also struggling for the fact that it doesn’t have control of either house and it wouldn’t matter who was the actual PM or what party they were in for this problem is a result of the numbers not the people involved.
I agree with Mark Latham, Rudd honeymoon would last for maybe five minutes, I don’t see him turning this around.
What the Government needs to do is focus in the economy and its stronger policies such as the NBN and NDIS.
Maybe a reshuffle could breathe new life into the Government.
And no one believes the next budget will be in surplus.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:49 pm
C@tmomma
Ah, I just checked. Spanish bond rates as high as 7.45%. Without a lifebelt, they are effed. With a lifebelt they are probably effed as well. Only more slowly.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:50 pm
OMG, did that guy say JUDO Christian?
Is that a type of martial arts?
by ShowsOn on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Hmmmm
28% ALP
46% Coalition
Grab the popcorn…
Not even Howie at his most unpopular in 2007 brought the tories to the depths now Ms Gillard is taking Labor…
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
That’s as may be, spur, but there’s still more to do in government and the PM has proven the most effective in leading and getting the best out of her team.
Gonski is still to come. They’ll at best probably only make a small start on it, but it is big and it affects a lot of people. Pyne’s committed the coalition to opposing it.
Plus she’s by far the best equipped to handle the sh-t being dished up daily by the vested interests. Long way to go yet.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
It is so simple it is hardly worth discussing any more. The destabilisation is in full swing.
Mr Fitzgibbon, Ms Rein, Mr Rudd, sundry union people, every shockjock in the land, named pro-Rudd Labor politicians talking to journalists about it, time tables, poll targets, every commentator in the land all chatting about it in one way or another.
DISUNITY IS DEATH. Mr Rudd is disunity. Death to the centre left. The Greeens are disunity. Death to the centre left.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Mexico,
You are trolling. as always.
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
The Liberals still need to explain how it will balance the books although the voters are so over this Government then it is possible that even that will be over looked.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Ducky if I am trolling then please explain why the polls are as they are.
A reshuffle may enable the Government to being new faces and ideas to the table like Amanda Risworth and Deb O’Neill or Ed Husic
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:55 pm
And Andrew Frazier
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:55 pm
You’re welcome, TP. No imagery of knifing and assassination tonight. You’re softening!
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
mexico,
You are the worst kind of troll: I pose an argument and therefore I am right.
by This little black duck on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Gary I believe the waiter has your bill, it is a biggy
$70billion, not sure if you care to ad a tip to that
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Boerwar,
I have had an uneasy feeling that the first dip GFC was like a Roller Coaster that gets you used to going up and down, before it scares the pants off you by going way down!
I also believe that even China will not be able to drag the world along and out of the mire again this time.
What you say about the LIBOR malfeasance is apt, BW. I am wondering who will sue the banks, outfits like Munich Re? Surely governments can’t do it because they are propping the banks up?
What I would like to see is if the crap really hits the fan that the G20 Finance Ministers grow a pair each and hit the tax havens where they hurt, finally, and resolve to put some teeth into regulation of the out-of-control financial cowboys.
Global Finance may now have no borders, so it’s time for global action. Hands across the oceans. Or else there will be global destitution, starvation and calamity, which will put the Great depression to shame. There’s a heckuva lot more people to look after this time.
by C@tmomma on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
And as has been repeatedly, there is no election imminent.
Of course people are confused about the politics. We have a hung Federal parliament!
Polls, schmolls. Unite behind the current leadership, argue Labor’s achievements in office, even excise that cancer on Labor unity Kevin Rudd, and then we’ll talk.
by confessions on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:56 pm
wondering what % of MurdochPoll can be put down to the confected, on cue, #leadershit speculation?
by sprocket_ on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
While the sad sacks and trolls, both concern and rightwing, are polluting PB, I will take my leave.
by Space Kidette on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
There’s no way Ed Husic is going to get a promotion any time soon as he voted for Rudd.
by ShowsOn on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:57 pm
m
The one sure thing we can say is that the Coalition’s budget black hole is smaller than the Greens’ black hole.
The difference is that when push comes to shove the Coalition will sharpen the knives and cut social spending like buggery. No brainer. They will screw the workers. No brainer. They will do rural socialism. No brainer. They will root the environment. No brainer. They will transfer more wealth to the rich. No brainer.
On the other hand, the Greens will spend like buggery, will regulate like buggery, will stop things from happening like buggery, and will wonder, after a couple of years, where the economy went.
by Boerwar on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Duchy, I have never said I am right, I just express an opinion and you are welcome to put forward an alternative.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Glen, Howard was down 58/42 two weeks before the start of the election campaign.
He commissioned Downer on whether he should hand over to Cossie, remember?
The Liberals gained a 6% swing by the time of the election.
A 6% swing here = 50/50.
Abbott’s popularity figures are the worst I have ever seen.
In my view the Liberals can’t go with Abbott if they’re to win!
by Centre on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
The narrative that the PM is a gritty warrior falls flat when you hear how people view her. I think that line would be sellable if people had a positive opinion about the hung parliament.
by spur212 on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Hmmm
That’s not entirely fair.
Of the over 606 Newspoll’s ever taken since 1985, only 7 (including this one) have been 28 or under.
And its not like ALL these sub-28 figures have occurred under Gillard or anything.
Oh.
Yep. They ALL have occurred under Gillard.
by bluegreen on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Hi Gary!
Funny you should point that out, as I was thinking exactly the same thing:
The ALP just above a quarter of the primary vote
The LNP just below a half of the primary vote
Long may she live eh? LOL
by Mod Lib on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
by Space Kidette on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Boerwar,
A Bond Rate > 7% and Spain cannot make enough money to repay the Debt.
by C@tmomma on Jul 23, 2012 at 10:59 pm
FWIW Gillard’s approval was 27% in the last Newspoll (equalling Keating’s lowest record) so that approval rating is wrong (is either up to 29 or something else)
by Bob Katter’s Hat on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm
ShowsOn that may be true but I have been impressed by Ed and his various interviews on T.V. He comes across as a likable person with interesting ideas.
by mexicanbeemer on Jul 23, 2012 at 11:00 pm