Newspoll: 56-44 to Coalition
James J reports Newspoll has the Coalition lead steady at 56-44, from primary votes of 28% for Labor (down three), 46% for the Coalition (down two) and 11% for the Greens (steady), with “others” for some reason hiking five points to 15%, which GhostWhoVotes tells us is the highest since February 2006. Julia Gillard is up two on approval to 29% and one on disapproval to 62%, while Tony Abbott is down two to 30% and up four to 61% – apparently his worst net result ever. Even so, his lead as preferred prime minister has opened from 39-36 to 40-36.
Also out today:
• The weekly Essential Research has Labor recover the point it lost last week to trail 56-44, from primary votes of 33% for Labor (up two), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Further questions find 53% thinking it “likely” an Abbott government would introduce industrial relations laws similar to WorkChoices against 22% unlikely, and 37% thinking “Australian workers” would be worse off under Abbott against 32% better off. There is also a rather complex question on amendments to surveillance and intelligence-gathering laws.
• Morgan face-to-face, conducted over the previous two weekends, has two-party preferred steady at 54-46 on previous-election preferences and down from 57.5-42.5 to 57-43 on respondent-allocated. On the primary vote, Labor is up 2% to 31.5% and the Greens down 2.5% to 12%, with the Coalition steady on 43%.
Preselection news:
Newcastle (NSW, Labor 12.5%): Labor’s member since 2001, Sharon Grierson, has announced she will not contest the next election. The Newcastle Herald reports the front-runner to succeed Grierson as Labor candidate is “her long-serving staffer and Newcastle councillor Sharon Claydon”. The Liberals have preselected Jaimie Abbott, principal of media training company Gold Star Media who has worked in the past as a public affairs officer with the RAAF, media adviser to Paterson PM Bob Baldwin, and television and radio journalist.
Petrie (Qld, Labor 2.5%): Sandgate Pest Control managing director Luke Howarth has won LNP preselection from a field of ten candidates, emerging a surprise winner over the John Howard-endorsed John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin.
Rankin (Qld, Labor 5.4%): Jamie Walker of The Australian reports David Lin, Taiwanese-born founder of the Sushi Station restaurant chain, will take on Craig Emerson after winning LNP preselection from a field of six candidates.
Melbourne Ports (Vic, Labor 7.9%): NineMSN reports that the Liberals have again preselected their candidate from 2010, Kevin Ekendahl, a manager at non-profit social enterprises organisation Try Australia.
Throsby (NSW, Labor 12.1%): Bevan Shields of the Illawarra Mercury reports that Mark Hay, military prosecutor and son of state Wollongong MP Noreen Hay, has announced he will not as rumoured be launching a preselection challenge against Stephen Jones in Throsby, as he is about to take a posting with the Royal Australian Navy.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
A template of considerable merit.
by Gecko on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Robert Manne canvassed Newspoll’s supposedly published fortnightly polls from 1985 to come up with some evidence to support his Statue of David.
He forgot to mention that Newspoll wasn’t published fortnightly – they may have done the polls but they weren’t published.
In fact, it wasn’t till 2007 AFAIK that Newspoll started publishing fortnightly polls.
So Manne’s conclusions were based on a fallacy to start with – but, hey, anything to prove a point (his own pet point).
Suddenly, News Ltd realised that the polling company it owned, Newspoll, could track News Ltd’s influence, and that’s what we’ve seen hence – a poll tracking the influence News Ltd has over the Australian public.
Unfortunately for News, even though they have 70% saturation in the Australian market, they still have only managed 60% for either one party or one leader.
Suck it up, Rupe, I say.
And, Schnappi, lucky we’ve got the internet, to keep making the bastard suck it up.
by kezza2 on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Leone
thanks.
by hugh moran on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Yes, good news.
Sadly newscorp to keep all profits related to running articles on David Hicks.
by deflationite on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Centre@883,
Ew! Did you have to remind us about the Ear Wax episode?
by C@tmomma on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:27 pm
How true!
by lizzie on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:27 pm
The voters are not tuned into politics at the moment.
The polls only reflect the constant and continual negative reporting directed at the government by the mainstream media day in and day out.
That negative reporting represents the 56/44 2PP.
The real critical and important analysis that should set alarm bells ringing in these polls, is that Abbott’s figures are no better than Gillard’s.
They should be, they must be, were the Coalition to be remotely considered as good things to win the election.
Howard’s losing figures in 07 were much stronger than Abbott’s today.
Mark Latham’s personal figures were even much better than Abbott’s today.
The real danger to Labor would be Turnbull in my view, but that is not going to happen. Or even J Bishop
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:30 pm
lizzie 905 if 2008 is anything to go by then the polling is more accurate.
by davidwh on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Kezza
So glad to see you back on PBer!
by Dee on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Catmomma, lucky, he could have been sitting on his hand
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:34 pm
I think Daniel Andrews’ good media campaigning and performance on Insiders went a long way to getting Labor over the line in Melbourne. Deserves a lot of credit
by Rex Douglas on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:35 pm
So you can read instead of watch Capital Hill this evening
@tveedercom: Lib MP Kelly O’Dwyer & Labor’s Graeme Perrett join @latikambourke on #CapitalHill to discuss the #Temby report http://t.co/rf2FHBGJ #auspol
by guytaur on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Boer
I watched a very frustrating current affairs special on Gunns a few years ago.
Basically, it was teh evil to cut down trees in forests. But then it was equally teh evil to grow plantations, because these needed water.
As usual, the Greens solution is to export the problem; that is, we will source the timber from overseas, where we don’t get any say in how the timber is grown or harvested, but being from overseas, of course, it has no adverse effects of The Environment.
The local Greens are against pine plantations, btw, even those grown on land which has been exclusively used for pine plantations for seventy years or so. They don’t look pretty.
And (apparently) it’s teh evil to grow plantation timber of any kind (even olives, or almonds) on Prime Farming Land.
by zoomster on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Feeney
I dont think you understood the nuances of my post. I acknowledged that Newspoll’s methodology appared sound when they wanted to get an accurate result. That is not the issue.
Let me ask you this. What sanctions are there or what audits take place to verify poll numbers are not fiddled or fabricated?
Dont run the commercial credibility line because that is covered in my earler post.
by gough1 on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Disagree – the by election showed that Adam Bandt’s chances to hold Melbourne are not good unless he can get Liberal preferences – unlikely – or he can get the Greens PV on the high side of 45% – also unlikely.
Note the irony in the reference to ‘typically subtle’
…………….
Agree – he would have been in trouble had he lost
It is not as if he knocked off a Lib – he might have more spring in his step but not much more.
Agree
……….
Partly true – but note that Thwaites makes no reference (at least in the quote) of the ALP playing the politics of preferences a helluva lot better than the Greens. The reality of electoral politics got the ALP over the line – not much more seeing as their primary vote actually fell. That is unless some of the indies were ALP dummy candidates – not sure on that one.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:37 pm
zoomster
You missed out the bit where the Greens are opposed to plantations in places where native forests already exist. An important point.
by guytaur on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:37 pm
dave @ 823
With the exception of TP and possibly TLM, the only hate I see on here is directed at Kevin Rudd. And there are lots of them.
Your comments are sheer projection.
by bemused on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:38 pm
I caught a little of Agenda with KerryAnne Walshe (sensible voice) Christian Kerr & Speers.
Agreement was that the Ruddistas in the party are political terrorists who are doing the undermining by the ‘drip’ process – little by little until a final big bang.
I find that disgusting and the ringleaders should lose preselection for creating discord within the Party and the community.
by BH on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:39 pm
As long as ALP policy delivers better broadband, better education, better hospitals, better equity in distribution of wealth, cheaper & proven carbon reduction policy, lower tax … and above all better hope and a brighter future alongside a solid economy and growth. Nobody presents a danger to Labor because they simply have nothing to sell.
by Gecko on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:39 pm
Sorry if this has already been mentioned but our comments about the woeful turnout at the Melbourne by-election were right.
That’s about 15,000 out of 45,000 no shows, or $300,000 in fines.
by Diogenes on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:40 pm
I can confirm the latest was between 10 and 13 of MOE.
Although the magnitude on June 19 was 5.3 the polling now shows a gap of 4.5
Labor’s on the up and up, BW.
As if you didn’t know.
by kezza2 on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:41 pm
William
Knowledge, experience and above average intelligence = successfully predicted outcomes.
You only have to be more accurate than the consensus to finish ahead.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:42 pm
WHich mofos here have seen the dark knight rises!?
mOFOS! How hot is Anne Hathaway as catwoman!
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:43 pm
You are wrong.
Believe what you want, its irrelevant to me.
by dave on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Zoomster @ 912
Since when were olives or almonds a forestry product? Yes they are grown in plantations – some of which exist under dubious taxation arrangements – but they are not grown to be cut down – they are grown for their continuing output.
And timber plantations grown on prime farming land is an issue – the timber plantations are using prime food producing land. They have also had social effects – especially in areas such as Western Victoria and East Gippsland where farmers have sold up to plantation companies – the areas depopulate, services are no longer viable and a vicious social spiral occurs.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Dee
Hey, thanks.
I was laughing to myself last night about you and Danny, both with fabulous JG gravatars (although miss your soothing midnight blue!) and was wondering how to change mine.
How do you do it?
by kezza2 on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:44 pm
guytaur, I know you’re Greens and can get very defensive of them when the Watermelon Wars get going, but I do admire your optimism and support for what is right.
Basically, you’re as positive as Meguire Bob and that’s reassuring.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
usually do judge people on looks, but as I only glance up at O’dwyer, she keeps making me think of K.Jackson just me or do they look alike.
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
usually do judge people on looks, but as I only glance up at O’dwyer, she keeps making me think of K.Jackson just me or do they look alike.
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Perrett doesn’t sound like the same person who was threatening to pull the pin if there was a leadership change …
Probably because he knows what things are like for the ALP in Queensland …
And keep in mind, we’re not just talking about the next federal election here. We are talking about an actual political organisation in the state, the funding, the union movement and all that entails
by spur212 on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
do not
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
do not
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:45 pm
davidwh @ 907
From what I’ve read, I wouldn’t trust Moody’s etc anyway, but I think the point he’s making is that the voters ignore good news…
by lizzie on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Gecko
I just think Turnbull could keep the required amount (of the 56/44 in their favour) to the election to win it.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Mofos
That Bane guy is pretty scary!
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:49 pm
ABETZ, just love to see that name.
IndependentAustralia@independentaus
Jacksonville 16, starring Kathy Jackson and Eric Abetz. http://www.independentaustralia.net/2012/politics/jacksonville-16-call-me-anytime/
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:50 pm
lizzie we are a weird bunch. We arguably have weathered the GFC better than mosy but yet we insist on being unhappy. People are getting off on bad news.
by davidwh on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:50 pm
by Schnappi on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:53 pm
davidwh
It’s the weather factor. Aussies expect sunny days all the time. If it rains too much they get depressed and blame the gubment.
by lizzie on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:53 pm
There seems to be something wrong about major parties not standing a candidate in by elections. I know it costs money etc.
But surely the supporters in the seat deserve to vote for “their” Party. How about if you run at a general election and don’t at a by election, you miss out on the next general election?
by ruawake on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Mofos
Whats better?
The Dark Knight
Or
The Dark Knight Rises
Or
Anne Hathaway
by ShowsOn on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:56 pm
lizzie looks like sport can’t even cheer us up as we are managing to get beaten at everything. I blame Gillard for Cadel losing, Scott losing, the Baggy Greens losing etc. If we elect Abbott we may start winning again.
by davidwh on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:56 pm
rua
The majority would rather not have to vote at all, certainly at byelections.
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Rua @ 939
Fact of life – both sides do it. Get over it.
by blackburnpseph on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:58 pm
lizzie – I just read the transcript and saw how Latika reduces the tweets so that the content is not really what the i/vwee said. She has done it a couple of times today.
by BH on Jul 24, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Question if there was the same voter turnout as the last state election would the Greens have won?
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 24, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Centre
I get where you’re coming from but based on selling the same shit Abbott wants us to believe I would say no hope. He was crap first time round as well and there appears insufficient more small l Liberals remaining to offer him any support. You also assume that 56/44 is an accurate depiction of voter intention which I doubt is true.
by Gecko on Jul 24, 2012 at 6:00 pm
OK confession time.
I ran in to the polling booth, got my name ticked off and got out of there asap back in 1996.
I was late for the good thing in the first at Warwick Farm
by Centre on Jul 24, 2012 at 6:02 pm
z
I assume that the Greens policy is balancing evils. The costs of getting wrong, naturally, run to billions.
by Boerwar on Jul 24, 2012 at 6:03 pm
gough1 @ 913
Well, I have no direct knowledge (to use an Abbottism) of what audits or checks and balances there are in any polling organisations.
Surely the polling organisations, and here we are talking about Newspoll, are not wanting their credibility or integrity to be compromised by engaging in dodgy polling.
After all, they all do polling for a large number of organisations.
I withdraw the words “smart alec” and apologise for any misunderstanding.
by feeney on Jul 24, 2012 at 6:05 pm