Seat of the week: Petrie
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Petrie covers a narrow strip of Brisbane’s northern suburbs from Carseldine north to Burpengary. This includes three distinct areas: at the centre, the Redcliffe Peninsula; further north along the coast, Deception Bay and the developing suburb of North Lakes; and, on the southern side of Pine River which separates the Moreton Bay local government area from Brisbane, the suburbs of Bracken Ridge, Fitzgibbon and Carseldine. The redistribution before the 2010 election added the Deception Bay area (previously in Longman) and transferred coastal suburbs at the southern end to Lilley, which boosted the Labor margin by 2.1%.
The electorate was created with the enlargement of parliament in 1949 and held consistently by the Liberals until 1983, barring a surprise defeat in 1961. It again changed hands from Labor to Liberal in 1984 and back again in 1987. Gary Johns held the seat for Labor for the next three terms, until the Queensland Labor wipeout of 1996 powered a 9.8% swing to Liberal candidate Teresa Gambaro. Gambaro’s margin was reduced to 0.8% when the elastic snapped back to Labor by 7.5% in 1998, but she was strengthened by successive swings of 2.7% in 2001 and 4.4% in 2004. Gambaro had a 7.9% buffer going into the 2007 election, but it was not enough to save her from a 9.5% swing to Labor’s Yvette D’Ath, who had previously been an official with the Right faction Australian Workers Union. Gambaro was back at the 2010 election, when she unseated Labor’s Arch Bevis in Brisbane.
A Liberal National Party preselection last weekend was won by Luke Howarth, managing director of Sandgate Pest Control and a past candidate for the state seat of Sandgate (which is actually located over the boundary in Lilley). Howarth prevailed out of a preselection field of 10, of whom the presumed front-runner had been John Connolly, former Wallabies coach and unsuccessful state candidate for Nicklin, who had the endorsement of John Howard.
TheFinnigans天地有道人无道 @Thefinnigans
@CraigEmersonMP @juliagillard No way Jose, the magnificent BISONs will always serve the Nation as they have survived for million of years
D’Ath – AWU and all that seems to have something going for her.
Yvette, the sometime occupier of a noddy position at question time.
TLBD – Rishworth had to be sent off from that.
Still wondering if her necks recovered
Laura Smyth and Deb O’Neill were selected for their strong necks.
Medicare is bracing for upcoming claims.
k2
Everyone pays the GST.
To make the prospect of the NDIS real in the next term of government, we have to find an extra $6 billion a year by way of revenue, or find programs to cut to offset the $6 billion.
I think we can safely say that the state and territory budgetary situations fall somewhere between parlous and passable. With increasing social costs as the boomers age, the states and territories will be less, and not more, able to pay for the NDIS. So, assume they are not going to be able to come up with the $6 billion.
Mr Abbott is being cagey about the NDIS. He has already said that the Coalition will only pay for the NDIS if they can afford it. They have some sort of monster budget black hole, so they will not be able to afford it. There is no way the Coalition would support an increase in either the company tax or income tax to cover the NDIS. They will already have cut programs massively, so it is unlikely they would find the extra program cuts to fund the $6 billion per annum.
So, forget the states, forget the Coalition.
Labor has already said that it wants to cut company tax, not increase it. Labor is not going to go to an election promising an increase in income tax. Labor has been cutting personal income tax. It is impossible to think it would go to an election promising an increase in income taxes.
In sum, there is no prospect of company tax increases, personal income tax increases or program cuts to an equivalent of $6 billion a year by either of the federal parties. Of course a Greens government would support full funding of the NDIS. The only way they would be able to fund it would be to give their magic pudding another flogging.
That leaves a de facto referendum on increasing the GST by 1% to cover the NDIS. I consider this to be unlikely as well, so I doubt whether we will get an NDIS in the next term of government, regardless of which party runs it.
Severe vertical nodding at the Opposition’s advisers’ box.
William
That is an odd-shaped electorate which triggered vague memories of Mr Gerry’s original salamander.
This raises a question: Which Australian electorate has the smallest area:boundary ratio?
Ooh The Dambusters March – a special tribute for our German visitors.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/wayne-swan-calls-campbell-newman-callous-20120728-232bj.html#ixzz21tHBxCy1
I certainly hope Qlders are experiencing a massive case of buyers remorse.
Boerwar,
150 of them if the area is contiguous?
kojak on again, 24 , is flogging the lib NDIS rubbish
BW- Wentworth.
… and even if not contiguous.
TLBD _ I’m tempted to hit causaulty for a brace now before the real rush starts – Andrew may claim available stocks although he’s slowed down.
So, does Wentworth have an artistic set of winding boundaries?
@17
They say it’s where the affluent meet the effluent.
I just did the US election survey thing.
http://www.isidewith.com/results/38430487
I am:
91% Green
78% Democrat
29% Libertarian
24% Republican
My results
96%. Greens!
86%. Democrats
66%. libertarian
7%. Republican
Just noticed that Ashby’s Pr flack Anthony McClennan’s firm, AMC Media, calls itself
Mitt gets 3% from me. How did he manage that much?!
victoria:
That must be as a result of all the IPA flacks we see on the ABC!
BW from the earlier topic:
Karen Doane wrote to Anthony McClennan saying she can’t see anything wrong with Slipper’s “travel FOI” documents, that “stands out” to her.
What is Anthony McClennan doing asking about Slipper’s travel records? What business of his are they?
confessions
Must be!!
One thing came out of that survey. Who knew that Ron Paul rejects the Theory of Evolution?
Wow …
It’s tempting to cite him as an example of someone who hasn’t evolved since 1850 but that’s just too darn easy.
27
Ron Paul is Southern and supports states rights. It is not a surprise that he is not big on evolution..
Hahahaha… did the quiz and here are the results.
Obama 89%
Stein 81%
Alexander 74%
Paul 18%
Romney 1%
No joy for Republicans there!
Do you know the answer to that, BW, or are you hoping I might? Because I don’t. Area of electorate info is easy to come by – length of boundary, not so much.
from previous thread:
BW
Can’t make ends meet at the moment without another 1% added to my cost of living.
Newstart was increased by $11 a fortnight. And that would have given me a buffer, the tiniest of buffers.
However, the rent was increased by $14 a fortnight from July 1.
Percentage-wise of my income, I pay a helluva lot more GST than probably you do.
What about tweaking the MRRT?
Karen Doane emails her colleagues saying she is confident the “FOI story” on Slipper will blow over, after conniving with McClennan to release them, and having at least foreknowledge from Lewis about them.
Nice lady. Comes complete with two faces.
kezza2:
I heard the Treasurer interviewed a couple of weeks ago and he ruled out raising the GST (as per calls at the time from some business sectors and economists), because he said the GST disproportionately hits the lower income households. He said for that reason Labor would not countenance increasing it.
Victoria 96%
Confessions 91%
I am sane, I knew it
BB
I found it endearing that Ashby suggested to Slipper that it would be great for him to become the speaker of the house. What a pal
centre
The survey is definitely rigged
Olympic event Shedule, if anyone wants
http://www.abc.net.au/news/sport/olympics/schedule/
TLBD:
What did you say about Sudan? The UN?
There was a joke going around about Mitt’s position on marriage: It’s between a man and several women, none of whom are black.
Fun Romney fact: His father gave him the name Willard, after the hotel magnate Willard Marriott, who was a family friend and that of his father’s cousin, Milton (Mitt) Romney. As a child, “Mitt” was called “Billy” but apparently preferred “Mitt”. Trivia night gold …
I read that. I took it to mean she saw nothing wrong with Slipper’s travel entitlements.
I suppose McClennan thought it was in his ‘client’s’ best interests to have something on her boss.
Doane fields emails from Ashby telling him she can’t even drive a car she is so sick, much less come to work.
On the same day (April 10, 2012), indeed within minutes she sends her resume off to Mal Brough, saing she can’t send a cover letter with the resume as she has an appointment in Brisbane to go to.
She also mentions Steve Lewis is waiting for the all-clear from Ashby’s lawyers before running the story.
All on the same day, in the same hour.
Centre:
Either the survey is dodgy, or the Greens in the US are immeasurably more sensible than their Australian counterparts.
Timings for some aussie events
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-28/london-2012-olympics-day-one-preview/4161008
fess
yep, even the disabled pay GST.
Nothing like upping their contribution to pay for some of their support themselves!
Good old Swannie.
BB @ 39
For a Yank, Doane certainly got the Aussie sickie down pat!
Do you really want to know how to raise taxation revenue?
Cashless society
Um girls, no matter how much you spin it, I’m saner than you two
He seems such an endearing and loyal kind of guy. He told Slipper that himself.
Slipper to Ashby (March 31):
BB
Slipper has no doubt been very appreciative of Ashby’s loyalty
Doane and Ashby have pretty much sealed their fate, stacking safeway shelves.
fredn
Or picking strawberries