Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Mr Joyce is never diplomatic. It goes with the ‘colourful’ territory.
by confessions on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Thanks Dee. I just turned it off as it looks like it will be a bit of a waste of time.
by BK on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Duck and cover
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Fine words. Did you use similar to condemn Pyne and Abbott for their stunts in parliament on this issue?
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:45 pm
Dee
Yes but that is quite well balanced by the presence of Mr Alexander for the Liberals.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:46 pm
So has the ABC come out with the obvious news, being that it is now the official Liberal information source, confirming global warming is a lie etc etc
by WeWantPaul on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Boerwar
by BK on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Girt denies specific knowledge of any medal count.
by This little black duck on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm
really wonder what karen doane can salvage .
by Schnappi on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm
As we have had two years of crap form the LIberals over nothing that has anytihng to do with running the ocuntry it is a little bit late for that line.
It looks very much as if the nasty piece of goods that passes as the leader of the opposition is finished.
by fredn on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:47 pm
I don’t Gary was around but other mindless liberal shrills went on and on and on and on about how important the speaker is, if they were telling the truth then a dishonest conspiracy to destroy the speaker should be treated as treason …
by WeWantPaul on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:48 pm
If you can explain why any of this excuses what Peter Slipper may or may not have done then you may have a point…
Pyne and Abbott are stupid enough in my eyes but they aren’t that stupid.
by Gary Sparrow on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:48 pm
Now have an image of Shane Gould spanking bottoms in my head.
Thanks QandA
by guytaur on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Glen,
They are that stupid.
by This little black duck on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:49 pm
The allegations are nit relevant to the interlocutory application in October because Ashby is not giving evidence.
They are also probably impermissible hearsay.
Slipper and Cth will give it all a wide berth in any event. They want to simplify the issues. To complicate them is to say to Justice Rares that there are issues which need to be considered at trial.
by shellbell on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:50 pm
I’ve been bad, managed to get a comment into moderation.
by fredn on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Victoria
Olympic coverage will probably stifle Ashby revelations.
IMO, Slipper fired off too early!
by Dee on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:50 pm
Good Essential poll adding to the good news for the ALP this week…. happy days guys?
These Australian sportspeople are making a lot of sense on QandA tonight, I am quite impressed.
by Mod Lib on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:51 pm
I don’t think there is any evidence to support your contention and a bucket of it to support the conclusion they are. If indeed they are intelligent well then their credibility and integrity is deeply in negative territory and if the are any liberals with any integrity and credibility they would want to be doing all they can to get rid of them. I concluded years ago the one or two liberals who had integrity back then had joined the wrong party by mistake.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:52 pm
BW
Ah yes!
The pollywaffle in the pool!
by Dee on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:52 pm
CTar 1188. The ‘freedom of political communication’ point seems more like his lawyers flailing about or stirring the pot, rather than a delaying tactic.
The discretion of a judge to strike out an abuse of process isn’t any kind of chilling of political speech.
On the other hand the judge has to balance his discretion with thoughts like, though it aint cricket,’a litigant is entitled to engineer positive publicity to pressure the other side’.
by Graeme on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
The Court case is now largely irrelevant to the political fallout.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Seems like Conroy is on first up with a hatchet in hand.
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
God love O’Loughlin!
Couldn’t agree more with what he said about Facebook and Twitter!!!!
by Mod Lib on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
If this was reported to Slipper, then i can see that he would be very careful to deal with it properly so there would be no blow-back on him.
Probably, the first thing he thought was “SET UP!!” If he goes media, he looks bad if its unsubstantiated, if he goes quiet it gets dropped on him at a time of his enemies choosing that he tried to cover it up.
Nope, putting it in the hands of the properly constituted authorities was i think his safest course and i also think the right thing to do.
by imacca on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Dee
I suspect there is a strategy.
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Abuse of process is a pretty high bar, Courts would almost always like to hear a matter, you’ve got to be way across the line to hit abuse of process.
by WeWantPaul on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:54 pm
Well you know Glen, Turnbull was stupid to get in up to his elbows in the Grech affair, so I don’t know how much faith you can have in the intelligence of Abbott and Pyne.
by Aguirre on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:54 pm
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:55 pm
shellbell
Certainly the C’wlth ‘part’ of the C’wlth will just want to do the employment law part of it – the politicians and the press just want to throw the maximum amount of mud at each other.
I don’t envy Justice Rares being stuck in the middle of this.
by CTar1 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Can anyone explain the QLD police statement which said:
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Zoomster 1186. All right I’ll be upfront. I’m of an age where all my friends have teenage kids. And root-ratting is common.
But even when I went to Nambour High in the 80s, 15 year olds were having sex.
I, like Mr Rudd, was too busy studying…
by Graeme on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:59 pm
shellbell
Because of social media, we ‘know’ stuff, or we think we ‘know’ stuff that we think Mr Rares should know about in making judgements about a sexual harrassment case.
Indeed, it is quite possible that Mr Rares saw the ABC show and ‘knows’ stuff that he will have to set aside when making such judgements.
Social media is not making good law any easier.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Graeme @ 1219
Thanks.
Like I said just above “I don’t envy Justice Rares being stuck in the middle of this.”.
by CTar1 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:59 pm
“He dun it”
by Mod Lib on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:59 pm
I’m not too sure that the 2 things are linked. To me it sounds like there will be talk about the latest developments in the Slipper case, plus an interview with Sen Conroy, maybe about the NBN?
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:00 pm
The age of puberty has not changed but the age of first sex is years earlier now than 50 years ago.
A twenty something having sex with a 15 year old is somewhat different to 15 year olds having sex with each other.
Somewhat different in the sense that the former is common and the latter is statutory rape.
by Mod Lib on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:02 pm
bg
I don’t know for sure but I would guess:
(a) they are checking to see whether someone wants to make a complaint against Mr Ashby
(b) if there is someone who wants to make a complaint, whether there is sufficient evidence to warrant prosecution.
I imagine that if there is a complaint the QLD police will be wanting to interview Mr Ashby.
I would also imagine that there are enough LNP haters of Mr Brough to ensure that a police desire to interview Mr Ashby would be leaked to the MSM.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Graeme,
Bisexuality is the ‘in thing’ among my son’s teenage friends atm.
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:02 pm
HANG ON A Second
Ashby’s allegations are very serious so his credibility should be scrutinised very carefully.
by ShowsOn on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Andrew has been writing again. NDIS
http://andrewelder.blogspot.co.uk/
by fredn on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Graeme
I’ve been a school teacher for thirty years. I’m well aware of the sexual proclivities of teenagers.
I’m a bit bewildered how you could read denial of that into anything I wrote.
by zoomster on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Graeme,
Shouldn’t you be more concerned with how Dave Taylor is going to be replaced?
by Roy Orbison on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Q&A is a farce.
I have sacked it.
To get me to ever watch again, their ABC has two choices;
either get Kerry O’Brien to host it, or
get Tony Jones to sit on a knitting needle vertically and rotate.
Up yours ABC!
by Centre on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:06 pm
My, my, NoCan Do Campbell Newman is getting on the nose at light speed it seems:
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Apparently Newman did not support Brough’s preselection, so I can’t imagine the QLD government/police stifling any bad news for ashby/brough.
by Sohar on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:07 pm
immacca
Yep – Slipper had no choice but to punt this to the cops.
by CTar1 on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:07 pm
C@tmomma – I hear the same but amongst girls! A bit of experimentation was always the norm; but quietly rather than turbo charged via
Personally at that age I found mono exuality complex enough!
Qld mandatory reporting laws only cover a limited number of professionals (eg community service workers). Could be wrong, but in the few states where they cover clergy, I thought it covered their course of duty only. Slipper has chosen this for obvious reasons.
by Graeme on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:08 pm
I saw something today that Mr Newman had killed the music. This is after he symbolically killed literature. Philistine.
OTOH, Mr O’Farrell plays with fire, closing fire stations left, right and centre. Pyromaniac.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:08 pm
addendum!
‘… turbo charged via social media.’
by Graeme on Jul 30, 2012 at 10:09 pm