Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
i linked this tweet last night. Pyne and Abbott are mentioned.
and there was this too
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by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:06 am
Transcript of Bracks’ interview:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2012/s3556929.htm
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:07 am
zoomster
I mentioned it last night. Can you see Bracks putting his hat in the ring federally?
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:09 am
As I said yesterday, sensible people do not want Labor to change leaders for the simple reason that a leadership change makes an early election an almost certainty.
At the very least I would expect those hyperventilating about the polls to appreciate this; if you’re worried about the polls, then the last thing you’d want is an early election.
by confessions on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:13 am
victoria
I’m not sure he’d want to. On the other hand, his family are older now, which removes that impediment, and he’s obviously still passionate about politics.
My gut says no.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:13 am
And – to put a bit more emphasis on Bracks’ comments – people never had any trouble talking to him on the street! If they had a message they wanted him to deliver to federal Labor, they’d have no hesitation in doing so.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:15 am
I would suggest that if Brough had his way he wouldn’t talk about the Ashby matter at all. Seems a little bizarre of Grattan to suggest that if Brough doesn’t want to talk about it nobody will ask him.
Though I guess that’s the way things work for Abbott.
by Aguirre on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:16 am
Steve Brack on #Lateline said KRudd shld accept his demise with “maturity & character”. it’s hard for someone with ego bigger than Ben Hur
by The Finnigans on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:16 am
zoomster
Fair enough. Bracks would ge a great asset though!
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:22 am
Heard at the Doctor’s reception today morning.
The reason why we did not win medals in Olympics is Rudd’s (labour’s) fault. He cut the funding for the athletes and diverted the money as aid to Afghanistan. The Afghans are using the aid money to kill our soldiers.
No wonder that the Labour primary is so low
by smssiva on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:23 am
Aguirre
Brough really thinks he is above it all. What gives him this great confidence?
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:23 am
From the Lateline transcript on Ashby:
Oh. So Slipper shouldn’t have taken the allegations to the police because doing so does nothing to raise the tone of the debate.
Seriously.
He obviously shouldn’t make any attempt to defend himself — because it lowers the tone?
He obviously shouldn’t have taken the alleged victim’s complaints to the police – because it lowers the tone?
I’m sure the journalist, if faced with the same situation, would nobly see his career and reputation trashed, rather than lowering the tone of the discourse.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:24 am
zoomster
The journalistic standards in this country have gone to the dogs. You only have to listen to the manner in which the Olympics are being reported. Pathetic comes to mind
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:25 am
Good Morning Early Bludgers!
I am taking to heart the orders of ‘The Management’ not to make any more innuendos about James Ashby today.
by C@tmomma on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:25 am
smithe
At a polling booth in 2010, a woman next to me was jabbing her finger at a Liberal pamphlet, saying to her teenage daughter, “We’ve got to Stop the Boats, that’s why I can’t get work.”
(Looking at her, it was obvious that it wasn’t the vast influx of asylum seekers flooding our shores might not have been to blame…..but it’s always nicer to find reasons beyond yourself for your failures….)
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:27 am
smssiva,
Sigh. With the aging of the population there are too many people now with too much time on their hands and not enough wit to use it sensibly.
by C@tmomma on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:28 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18906357
How can that be a political statement? He’s just telling the world:
by The Finnigans on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:29 am
c@tmomma
What do you make of Ms Grattan’s advice to Mr Brough?
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:29 am
smssiva Posted Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 8:23 am | Permalink
Heard at the Doctor’s reception today morning..
Strange isnt how some think money maketh an athlete.
Think of , the countries in africa who have the fastest runners over times,
These are amoung tne poorest nations.
When we are caught of guard.
We never think quick enough
No ill be ready with
Money does not maketh the athlete
by my say on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:33 am
Interesting implication from the Lateline report. It suggests that Slipper shouldn’t give information to police which suggests criminal activity may have taken place.
Bizarro.
by confessions on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:33 am
Emmo is socking it to them on #Slynews NOW!!!!! @CraigEmersonMP
by The Finnigans on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:34 am
Standard tactic. “They’re all as bad as each other.” It’s what usually happens when there’s a bit of clear air. Nothing to directly claim agains the ALP or their ‘friends’? That’s ok, just lump them in with the Coalition for the moment.
by Aguirre on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:34 am
U could throw a million dollars at me and i stil only jump 50 cm in the long jump
Also i think ones genes may have a bit to do with it.
Of course lounge chair sport watches who dont even take a daily walk would
Know better:-)
by my say on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:36 am
Oh, look, guys, but tone is so important.
One wouldn’t want to let the chaps down by lowering it. Just not done.
(Not Tone, though).
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:37 am
The Finns
What is Enmo saying. Do tell?????
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:37 am
C@tmomma Posted Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 8:28 am | Permalink
smssiva, Sigh. With the aging of the population there are too many people no
No not so. Its the mentality of any age group.
Its not going well so its some ones fault ,
Somewhere.
Iam actually not up set we are having a bad mert
About time we looked at ourselves as a nation
And stopped believe ing hype
by my say on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:40 am
The Daily Telegraph reveals what the NSW state government’s opposition to carbon pricing is really all about:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw-power-sale-may-rest-on-abbotts-carbon-axe/story-e6freuy9-1226438949599
OF course they’re dreaming, because it would take years to unravel carbon pricing, financially and legislatively, if it could be done at all.
I’m not sure whether it’s best to taunt Abbott with “He’ll never repeal the CT” or with “You bet he’s going to”.
So many seem to have their hopes set on some kind of magical unfurling of complex legislation that could take several years and several elections… the “creative chaos” that Abbott seems so fond of.
Many of these also believe that a government-busting scandal is just around the corner, some kind of miracle that will see Gillard meekly hand over the keys of the Lodge to Abbott.
She’s survived so many of these “scandals” that you’d think her detractors would have gotten the message by now.
The latest Ashby allegations are just the tip of this blundering iceberg of Coalition ineptitude. I mean: fancy trusting Mal Brough not to f**k it up! . He doesn’t do “Barefaced Lying” at all well, does he?
Back in NSW, maybe the NSW government thinks the punters are happy to have their electricity generators sold off so that a few thousand commuters in South-Eastern Sydney can get to and from their destinations 5 minutes earlier.
They may be happy to pay higher privatized rates for their electricity for the duration, as the hedge fund purchasers try to make their money back pronto before even they have to admit that Climate Change is coming to a continent near them.
Or maybe not.
With carbon pricing seemingly gaining in acceptance (if grudgingly) by those same punters, articles like this might not be the heralds of happiness and light that the DT believes.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:42 am
Vic, the usual questions from Foll Gilbert:
1. Ashbygate
2. Abbott’s insult to China
3. Alleged Kimbo’s studpidity
4. Carbon Price and #Newspoll
by The Finnigans on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:44 am
zoomster@1364,
One wonders how long it will take to dawn on that woman, when she is still unable to get a job under an Abbott government(heaven forbid), due to the massive influx of cheap 457 Visa labour from overseas that will undoubtedly occur under the Tories, that Boat People ‘”Taking our jerbs!” was just a convenient subterfuge that served multiple purposes for the Conservatives. Such as:
* Enabling the encouragement of bigotry and xenophobia in the populace as a convenient distraction from the actual policy lightness of weight of the Coalition, and cause to get the adrenaline flowing, thus sidelining cool reason.
* Allowing another cause to be generated for ‘failure’ of the Labor government.
* Making it possible for the Coalition to keep blaming ‘Teh Boats’ for all the evils under the sun.
* Distracting the populace as the Conservatives bring in great swathes of their own preferred racial minorities, such as they did under Howard via his sham Educational Colleges which were just a backdoor vehicle to get these people Australian Citizenship on the sly. For which they were eternally grateful to the Howard government.
* Finally, to encourage the reduction in wages and conditions as people like that woman competed with all the 457 Visa holders and backdoor immigrants for jobs. Which she could never hope to get, because obviously she was going to be age-discriminated against as well, under Howard’s Brave New World of hard scrabble for jobs of the sort she was probably qualified to do.
Otherwise, with the low unemployment we have now, she would have had a job probably, all other things being equal.
by C@tmomma on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:44 am
The Finns
I guess Emmo gave him the what for?!
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:46 am
Victoria:
You could have picked it months ago. Once the PR flacks, spivs, chancers, urgers and lurk merchants take over whatever it is they’re going for, the standards sink to the level of sludge.
Anthony “Reputation Protection” McClennan is a case in point. I wonder how he’s going to get James Ashby out of the current mess? McClennan might be needing to protect his own reputation in the near future.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:46 am
victoria@1367,
He won’t take a blind bit of notice of Ms Grattan because he thinks he’s the smartest political operator in the room. Thereafter, Ms Grattan will fall into line and let him be.
by C@tmomma on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:48 am
Stupidity.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:48 am
victoria @ 1360
Perhaps like us he has noted the free ride the MSM gives Abbott no matter how great the lie, how big the budget black hole or how big the inconsistency with something he has said before.
by CO on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:50 am
BB
Rebecca Wilson and Ray Hadley did not think it was important to display some diplomacy last night re their commentary about the young Chinese swimmer. Basically intimated that her amazing performance was due to drugs!
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:51 am
The Canberra Press Gallery, stay after class and write this 100 times on the blackboard. Then see me tomorrow.
by Son of foro on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:51 am
I am really hoping the karma bus comes around for Brough, Abbott, Pyne and the rest of this motley crew.
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:53 am
CO@1383,
Too true. Sadly, too true.
by C@tmomma on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:55 am
Victoria:
They have to explain to their listeners why their jingoistic bragging about “our” Games prospects have all turned to shit.
Hadley is Australia’s No. 1 loudmouth.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:56 am
Did I hear Chris Uhlmann on ABC News Radio, just before 8, say:
1. Some Labor MPs are despairing,
2. there won’t be a challenge to the PM, and
3. if there is, it won’t be from Kevin Rudd?
by This little black duck on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:57 am
Phil Coorey to a “T”.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:57 am
BB
Shockjock radio comes to the Olympics
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:58 am
nailed…a big drip is Mal.
by joe2 on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:59 am
Ducky
I reported here last week, that the word was if a change was to occur, it would be someone new.
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 8:59 am
We’ll know that for certain when they start blaming Gillard for the poor showing.
Indeed, it looks like Gillard has shown some prescience in not attending the Olympic Dinner.
by Bushfire Bill on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:00 am
Micallef’s show did a great little skit on the leadershit, which sent something like this:
SM: Can you tell me about the leadership tensions within the Labor party?
ALP spokesperson: There aren’t any. It’s a media beat up.
SM: But there must be, because everyone’s talking about them.
ALP: That’s because the media keep reporting that there are. There aren’t.
SM: So why all the speculation?
ALP: Because you guys keep asking questions about it.
SM: But we’re only doing that because everyone’s talking about it.
ALP: But everyone’s talking about it because you guys keep telling them it’s going to happen.
SM: But there’s no smoke without fire.
…..and so on.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:01 am
The Great Queensland Blame Games have begun.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/job-cuts-leave-brisbanes-cbd-like-a-ghost-town-and-carparks-empty/story-e6freoof-1226438915435
Carpark owners and retailers are blaming Can’tDo’s sackings for empty carparks and poor retail figures. Naturally no-one wants to talk about what Abbott’s proposed PS sackings will do to Canberra and Queanbeyan.
by leone on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:05 am
Good to see Sergeant Major Newman doing his bit for the federal Labor party. Pity about Queensland.
by This little black duck on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:10 am
TLBD. QLD are happy to take one for the team if that’s what it takes
by middle man on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:12 am
What Bracks said has been commented upon many times here.
I am just waiting, as our Olympic performances are not quite living up to expectations at the moment, (could change of course as some Gold medals come out of the woodwork) for Labor – in general – and JG in particular – to be blamed for the “disaster”. We will increasingly hear questions about “What went wrong?” if there is not a better return of gold soon.
The PM already has had the sour pusses whingeing that she did not “go” to the Olympics.
If she had gone I am sure she would have been hammered as being on a junket by the tories.
by Tricot on Jul 31, 2012 at 9:13 am