Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
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Time will tell if there are implications for the party more broadly
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:14 am
In about 1890, many prominent and intelligent people believed in fairies at the bottom of the garden.
by bluegreen on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:14 am
Hooper is apparently expected to apologise to the head of the AOC and promise not to wear the T-shirt again. For mine, this is appalling. Hooper is being asked to apologise for being a proud aborigine.
The effect of this is equate identifying oneself as aboriginal with the making of a political statement. I really don’t know why athletes should be banned from making political statements, but it is extraordinary that being publicly aboriginal should attract an official rebuke at all. Rather than being something that officials might wish to conceal, the fact the Australian team includes great Aboriginal athletes should be something to be celebrated by everyone.
by briefly on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:16 am
Hypocrisy from the liberals
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/sex-claims-against-ashby-have-no-bearing-on-slipper-case-opposition-20120731-23bk0.html#ixzz229dsFwRj
The shadow attorney-general George Brandis cautioned that the reports about Mr Ashby’s previous relationships were allegations from an anonymous source.
“Let’s not get ahead of ourselves,” he told Sky News this morning.
by Meguire Bob on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:19 am
We agree.
Aristole said that political rhetoric (as opposed to eg legal rhetoric) was the hardest form of rhetoric because you are arguing about what will or should happen in the future, whereas in a court of law, you are arguing about what happened in the past.
by bluegreen on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:20 am
I couldn’t have said it better myself. Once again, politicians prove they don’t know what’s going on. No wonder they are unpopular…..
by briefly on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:22 am
bluegreen
I think it was one….and how did that work out for him?
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:23 am
Conan Doyle was a good writer who created a wonderful character in Holmes but he was a twit to think that fairies were real.
by Tom Hawkins on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:31 am
so how can the coalition win the election wiht abbott
when no one is believing him
‘
they dont beleive him about re-appealing the carbon price
now they dont beleive him in workchoices
Abbott not believed on Work Choices: poll
A new survey shows most voters believe Opposition Leader Tony Abbott will bring back Work Choices-style industrial laws if the coalition wins the next federal election.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8503740/abbott-not-believed-on-work-choices-poll
by Meguire Bob on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:40 am
People have stopped listening to Abbott,
The coalition loses by default
by Meguire Bob on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:41 am
MB
The coalition will also increase the GST. I cant see them raising revenue required any other way
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:42 am
Just watched the Presser with Tone NoNo on ABC24.
I’ve watched and noticed over the last half a dozen or so pressers of this grub, of course he slides around questions with his answers. But what I have noticed, and i suggest others might like to watch it next time.
During each presser as NoNo is attempting to sidestep questions the minder calls out “last question”. No matter what the subject of the last question is Tone swings it into this is a bad guvment, PM lied, must change, and then cuts and runs.
I would just love a reporter to ask at the start of the Presser “Before you run could you please answer questions re …….”
I don’t know how he expects to get away with this rubbish for the next twelve – sixteen months. Deadset it is beyond me.
I look forward to seeing how this is going to pan out.
by jeffemu on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:45 am
Victoria
Yep, the more and more Abbott looks to be giving Labor the gifts
by Meguire Bob on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:46 am
I wonder if Newman will outsource the auditing to Howarth’s? They could have him back in surplus at the stroke of a pen.
by Burgey on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:47 am
amazing how he did not have the same attitude re Thomson and Slipper
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:48 am
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:49 am
Windhover:
The question is whether the ALP/its supporters withdraw from their silliness about the centrality of pandering to the momentary whims of tranches of voters on the urban fringes in framing policy. I do recall Ms Gillard doing quite a bit of that during her touting of the “East Timor Solution” period in the run up to 2010′s election.
I do, though it was always clear at the time that the ALP wanted us to vote against it. That was an important design consideration in the package brought forward. The ALp wanted to
a) brand differentiate from us
b) cause us to hand them all of the credit for carbon pricing
c) split the Liberals and subvert Turnbull
Things didn’t entirely work out that way and now their camp followers are whining that we did what they asked but they failed to profit politically. Well boo hoo …
Had you played it straight and simply implemented Garnaut, you’d have had our support and probably that of the Libs too since at the time, they were running from the contest. Your party rearmed them.
So did I — but unfortunately, Rudd all but said that Garrett was an incompetent and ran a mile from defending the policy, decalred the party would get “a whacking in the polls” as a result of BER/HIP. As with Gillard in February 2011, Rudd in 12 months earlier simply went to water.
Oh it is a problem — but like the GFC or climate change it’s just not one that the government can substantially fix on its own. Rudd, in effect, asked people to judge him by his success in “stopping the boats” — a standard that no PM can possibly deliver on this side of abandoning all pretence at humanity. In effect, he appointed the opposition and the Daily Telegraph as his political referees, and unsurprisingly, they were not inclined to mark generously. Every boat was a policy failure, as Gillard herself had intoned all those years ago. The ALP would be judged by the traditional cultural paradigm that has marked this country as long as there has been a European Australia — fear of the great unknown outside swamping us. The Bulletin no longer exists and the octopus is now Muslim rather than “Mongolian” but it was summoned unwuittingly by Rudd in his high dudgeon at “people smugglers”.
He was dumped so that the RSPT could be renegotiated and the campaign of Big Dirt put on hold and thus permit an election. This prefigured the decline of the ALP — the idea that for about $20million spent in the largely Murdoch media, you could remove a PM. From then on, it was open season. For me the election could have been a referendum on who should run the country, but the ALP, in their wisdom decided that it should be Murdoch and his mates amongst the miners and bigots on the urban fringes.
Not in the way it usually iterates. As I’ve repeatedly made clear, Gillard never abandoned the policy of carbon pricing, but she did want to muddy the waters by speaking of a “citizen’s assembly” to establish “a deep consensus” rather than “a politicians’ consensus”. In that context her “there will be no carbon tax” was meant to be a wink at those who did oppose the policy of expressly pricing carbon. There was no call for her to make this remark at all, of suggest want of consensus, unless she was trying to work both sides of the street. That is why she messed up so badly 6 months later. She was trying to paper over this ambivalence.
It wasn’t simply ‘a semantic argument’. It went to the integrity of her mandate. She could have made this an earnest of her reliability — I promised and I am now delivering. Instead, she was apologising for being shifty.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:54 am
As I grow older and wiser (by attending “school” at PB) I become more convinced that all people fall into one of two basic categories of people with regard to their core values, motivations, attitudes, and approach to life and its issue .
The first category includes those who are forward thinking, confident to “have a go”, adventurous, keen to improve themselves and society, and welcoming of change for the better, and progress. In Australia, they identify with Labor.
The second category includes those who are unadventurous, insecure, fearful of change, anxious about what the future might bring, comitted to the status quo at any cost, and with a preference for the golden oldies days. In Australia we call them the Coalition ie the scaredy cat conservos.
In pre-digital and pre-literacy times, society made great use of oral tools, ie proverbs and maxims to describe the two categories.
For the first category, proverbs such as “the early bird catches the worm”, “he who hesitates is lost”, “time and tide waits for no-one”, “walnuts and pears you plant for heirs”, “a stitch in time etc”, and “strike while the iron is hot” are apt.
Proverbs such as “necessity is the mother of invention”, “fools rush in etc”, “don’t upset the apple cart”, “a bird in the hand etc”, “if anything can go wrong, it will”, “better late than never”, and “eat, drink and be merry for tomorrow we die” were words of caution created for the second category.
In recent weeks I have attributed the rise of Abbott via Minchin to the Greens’ rejection of the CPRS. I have also argued that they are at this very time repeating their poor form and promoting Abbott to be PM by their “principled” inaction regarding the Migration Act amendments.
Like others I have struggled to put into words, proverbs, or maxims just what their problem is. Today, Listening to the Medical Report on Radio National I got the answer courtesy of a Stanford medical professor. It is amazing how a few pithy words can convey so much.
The Greens just don’t understand that “perfection is the enemy of good”.
by psyclaw on Jul 31, 2012 at 10:58 am
Good Morning
@latikambourke: DPM Wayne Swan says QLD Premier Campbell Newman is ‘cold and heartless’ for refusing to pay funds to participate in a trial of the #NDIS.
This is an understatement. All the cuts Newman has done shows the same thing starting with the cutting of the Premiers Literay Prize.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:00 am
psyclaw
Some in Labor do not understand that their party has compromised principles to the point that people ask, What does the party actually believe in and stand for.
All because some in Labor believe that a policy difference on one issue should rule the relationship. This is because the Right Wing of that party wants to blame the Greens for policy failure instead of looking at itself. That policy failure is not the fault of the Greens no matter how much thrashing about and blame the right tries to throw.
That policy failure is due to those that support off shore policy failing to work together. That failure is nothing to do with the Greens.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:03 am
Poroti @1426
You beat me to the punch. I only heard the Health Report repeat at 5.30am tody.
Here’s a proverb for you: “great minds think alike”
Cheers.
by psyclaw on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:05 am
Psyclaw
I just read Ong’s Orality and Literacy (which I imagine is what you are drawing the above comments from.
If you look at the polling about where people get their primary source of news from. Ony 50% is newspapers or internet. The other 50% is from tv news, radio or friends.
So you could say that half of Australia is oral and half is literate.
Whoever works this out first will win the next election. Perhaps I should send a copy or two of the odysey or beowulf to the government
by bluegreen on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:05 am
Cafe Whispers has summed up the contradicitions and confusions in the opposition very nicely.
http://cafewhispers.wordpress.com/2012/07/29/dazed-and-confused/
Maybe some of those journalists who attend Abbott’s daily spruik and run sessions would like to ask him about some of this confusion. Or would that be expecting too much?
by leone on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:07 am
Rudd was dumped for his political, personal and policy failings; for his political cowardice, recurring incompetence, inexcusable disloyalty and abject failings of leadership. Added to this were his isolation, duplicity, arrogance and sheer nastiness, making it impossible for him to defend himself when he produced one of the worst “policies” ever put forward by a Prime Minister – the RSPT.
Self-evidently, Labor have made many errors over the years. The worst error of all was falling for Rudd in the first place.
by briefly on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:10 am
psyclaw
Good to see that I was not the only one who had a “green” lightbulb light up when hearing it
by poroti on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:12 am
Newman may be ‘cold and heartless’ but I bet his funding cuts are popular in the Deep North.
As for changing the leader, it certainly didn’t work in NSW. But in SA, Labor was on the skids under Rann and is now back in the game under Weatherill. So take your pick.
by Toorak Toff on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:13 am
At least Emmo got a message out
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-31/swan-says-report-on-beazley-comments-inaccurate/
OH & I have a few miserable days lately. Lost an absolutely treasured pal a couple of weeks ago when he fell down a cliff while holidaying in Qld and then another one yesterday with a brain tumour. Life’s a bit of a downer sometimes.
by BH on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:14 am
guytaur
Event 1: Greens vote down CPRS
Event 2: AGW kept alive as issue forcing the in-good-faith negotiations
Event 3: Minchin has time to plan his anti AGW assault
Event 4: Assault launched, Abbott elected and bombs the in-good-faith agreement
Event 5: Thanks to Greens, we’ve all got Abbott and dealing with AGW is still a hi-profile issue per medium of carbon pricing controversy
Ie Event 1 had not occurred, neither would the following four Events have happened.
The same reprehensible paradigm is currently being exercised by the Greens. They keep ASs as a very live issue, Abbott silently thanks them, and Abbott banks on ASs being a VIP election issue to help him become PM.
by psyclaw on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:14 am
So the whole revival of “Fairies at the Bottom of the Garden” meme is on to attack the Greens. It will not work. Greens have been advocating policies called Fairy at the Bottom of the Garden before. e.g. Carbon Pricing.
So no the public is not going to buy that one when so called airy fairy policies have proven to be on the money.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:17 am
Bluegreen
I just read Ong’s Orality and Literacy (which I imagine is what you are drawing the above comments from.
Having never heard of Ong or his book (?) your surmise is incorrect.
The argument and proverbs came only from my old (wise???) head.
by psyclaw on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:17 am
Conan Doyle wasn’t the only famous person who believed in the fairies at the bottom of the garden. It was quite a large movement.
Quiz: Which famous person was Doyle’s main antagonist on his dippy mystical beliefs and made Doyle look like an idiot?
by Diogenes on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:18 am
BH
Very sad for you and your OH. My very best wishes to you both.
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:19 am
psyclaw
Greens vote in their best policy interest. They are not a branch of the Labor Party.
You cannot blame the Greens for standing up for their belief’s. Instead you attack them for doing so claiming purity at the expense of practicality.
Well millions of voters disagree with that analysis.
I disagree with that analysis. I think the CPRS problems were of Labor’s making and failure to negotiate not the Greens.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:20 am
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:20 am
Psyclaw
You v clever then.
A summary of Ong ‘ere
http://newlearningonline.com/literacies/chapter-1-literacies-on-a-human-scale/ong-on-the-differences-between-orality-and-literacy/
by bluegreen on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:21 am
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:21 am
I am sorry to hear this, BH. Old friends are irreplaceable – I will be thinking of you.
by briefly on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:21 am
Toorak
‘J’ has surprised me a bit – Initially on seeing him on the media I thought he was almost insipid but on seeing a bit more of him he actually seems thoughtful and quitely determined.
by CTar1 on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:22 am
psyclaw
In all these instances you cite you do not see the problem. The right attacking the Greens for Labor failure. Mr Rudd did not negotiate with the Greens. He tried and failed with Mr Turnbull instead.
Plus the Greens position was clear from statements at the time. This is when the softer more gentle Senator Brown was leader too. That is of course according to the revision going on in the Labor party on AS negotiation.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:24 am
What would happen if that Aboriginal athlete had the Aboriginal flag as a tattoo?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:24 am
BH
Commiserations on you + your OH’s double loss.
by poroti on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:25 am
guytaur
Simply put, as quoted by the very articulate Poroti and my good self:
“perfection is the enemy of good”
I think that means that the Greens’ handsit on these issues prevents merely good things happening.
By implication, “perfection permits and supports the bad” ie PM Abbott.
by psyclaw on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:25 am
Diog
think it was Wells, H.G.
While you’re there — one doctor says I should take oxycontine, the other says no, it’s too addictive.
Thoughts??
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:25 am
guytaur
Ah.
So where does the future of the planet and the good of the country come in?
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:27 am
psyclaw
See you are letting your literary efforts run away with you. Pretending the Greens never compromise despite the evidence as shown by supporting Labor to be Government instead of forcing an election.
That would be purity at the expense of the good.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:28 am
…and if the Greens hadn’t filibustered in the Senate, the CPRS would have got up before Malcolm Turnbull was rolled.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:28 am
Puffy
If it were a permanent tattoo, nothing.
by victoria on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:29 am
zoomster
That is what Greens policy is supposed to be about. Just as Labor claims the same.
Look to your own party problems and let the Greens sort out theirs.
Julia Gillard takes this approach and this is why Labor and the Greens work together well much to the gnashing of teeth of one Mr Abbott.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:30 am
zoomster
That was not a Greens failure. That was a Labor failure. Labor chose to go a certain route. That is a Labor failure.
by guytaur on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:31 am
guytaur
Exactly. And when they had an opportunity to make something happen, they squibbed it – because they put Greens policy purity ahead of doing something for the planet.
Explain to me again how the present carbon pricing scheme is far superior to Rudd’s ETS? In your own words, please, without linking me to a Green media release.
by zoomster on Jul 31, 2012 at 11:32 am