Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
i got a feeling we will not see brough running in the election for the seat, got a feeling when the liberals have a new leader in 2013, brough wont be the lnp candidate
by Meguire Bob on Jul 30, 2012 at 8:59 am
BW
I did suggest to you the other day about tweaking the MRRT to fund the NDIS.
But you didn’t reply.
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:00 am
No sensible person wants a leadership change because it will almost certainly mean an early election.
by confessions on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:01 am
Briefly
The ADF has around 30,000 stress cases on its books. I don’t know the details. There is no doubt that the IEDs have ‘distorted’ war trauma: all those soft brains being violently slopped around the brain boxes. Much-improved battlefield medicine means that people who normally would have died now survive: in many cases to live a lifetime of hell.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:01 am
k2
The era of mining super profits is over.
by Boerwar on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:01 am
BW
Not at the moment, it’s not.
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:02 am
That’s OK because the ALP faithful are not sensible people
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:03 am
fess
without mentioning anything much at all, I see you had a gold medal win yourself last night. Congratulations
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:05 am
kezza:
I’m not sure I follow…
by confessions on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:06 am
Help me with my maths. 61% of nothing is…
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:06 am
Fran Kelly actually had the lying Brough somewhat on the run just then. She interrupted the flow of his lies by insisting on questioning him on the need/ethics of him getting access to Slipper’s diary.
She could have gone in a harder but still had him grasping for words in a feeble attempt to justify his actions.
by CO on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:07 am
OPT
Pleased you are on the improve!
It will be very interesting to see how Slipper responds to the Brough selection
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:07 am
During the Queensland flood and cyclone disasters, Leak did a disgraceful cartoon dishonestly implying that Gillard was scene-stealing Bligh on handling the crisis.
Not consistent with his erstwhile high reputation.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:07 am
BW
Ditto post natal medicine.
And, while not all babies survive to live a ‘lifetime of hell,’ their parents sure do.
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:09 am
bg
Rest assured. Abbott and his mob are in like flynn. No need for the hand wringing
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:09 am
That stuff BB posted yesterday about the AFP – and ABC – running scared of what the Coalition might do to them if they got into power struck a chord with me. It sounds about right. Though with the ABC I’d say they’re already infested with management types sympathetic to the Coalition so it’s more motivated than reactive.
What it means is that the media will have to follow the polls. If they tighten to the point where the ALP some momentum, you’d imagine all of Abbott’s chickens will come home to roost. The flood gates will open and he’ll be torn apart by the media pack. They’re not going to do it now because it means going out on a limb and risking all sorts of repercussions. I can’t think all these journalists like having to toe the line.
I trust the Ashby case will proceed on its course despite the reportage (or lack of) on it, and the outcomes will be as we predicted. That’s still going to taint Brough, whether he thinks he can control the reportage or not.
by Aguirre on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:12 am
Michael Gorden is the national editor of the Age
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/poll-shows-gillard-on-slow-road-back-20120729-236k1.html#ixzz223Xrxdye
by lizzie on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:12 am
fess
The “sensible posts award” by the moderator.
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:13 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-30/nielsen-poll-on-carbon-tax/4162894
Fear of Carbon tax plummets.
by lefty e on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
This is like Fran.
Now Labor only want the ‘faithful’ voters
They forget that to win (or at least to lose less badly) they need the unfaithful voters back!
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:14 am
confessions
+1
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:15 am
A salutary lesson on paywalling – or perhaps on the Murdochs falling reputation (Financial Times excepted, for much the same reasons as the afr is here) As the money from Mail Online rolls in, what about those behind the paywall? with an interesting contrast between the free-online “papers” like Mail Online & Guardian, and The Times.
whereas
and
So the Rivers of Gold – and the influence readership numbers bring – are going to the Free Online papers, not Rupert’s paywalled ones!
Feel very free to laugh out loud and long!
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:18 am
bluegreen
The point about the “61% Labor voters oppose changing leader” is that the media only report the whole, 100% of popn. figure, and the Coalition supporters naturally want anything that will destabilise Labor.
Reminds me of when Rudd was going for leader again earlier this year and he had the “popular vote”. Caucus didn’t agree. But the media continue to push this popular theme because they want to prove we have a “dysfunctional govt”.
by lizzie on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:19 am
kezza:
Thanks!
by confessions on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:20 am
bg
Are you content with your party having Abbott as their leader? If not, you can comment all you like about an alternative. Stop focussing on Labor
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:21 am
OPT
Good to see you back on deck.
I was reading yesterday about another of CanDon’ts brainwaves to attack the $10 million spent by the Bligh govt on the Mamu Rainforest Canopy Walkway in Wooroonooran National Park.
Of course, it was the “waste, waste, waste” mantra all the way.
I watched a youtube video from July 2011 – and part of the walkway was still closed due to damage by Yasi.
Has the damage caused by Cyclone Yasi completely bypassed Qlders? Did the floods stop tourism in its tracks?
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/mamu-rainforest-canopy-walkway-in-wooroonooran-national-park-a-10-million-fiasco-and-big-tourism-loser-for-labor/story-fndo2iwh-1226437537277
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:23 am
You can’t get unfaithful voters back by changing leaders if the reason they left was cause you dumped your leader. It’s the dumping not the leader that’s the problem. When you dump your leader, specially one that was popular only a little while ago, it sounds like the whole deal is just a popularity contest like Big Brother instead of about the good stuff your doing.
The only way to get unfaithful voters back is to do stuff that they think is good and prove that the other guys would screw up if they got the chance. If you can prove that the stuff that is happening is good and the other side might mess it up cause they are clueless then nobody who might change their vote and who likes the policy is going to vote Liberal.
If there aren’t enough people who reckon its good or are going to change their vote then your toast whoever is the leader, only your like that burnt toast that you put back in cause it wasn’t brown enough and forgot about if you change leaders again because your saying that the policies you’ve brought in don’t really matter, just the salesman.
by Brown Hartley on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:27 am
Victoria
To quoque
I know all the logical fallacies. Are there any more you want to test me on?
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:28 am
“The French don’t just talk politics. They do it. Regularly. Which is why they have the best healthcare system in the world, it’s why university education is still free, and why they have excellent public transport. In a context where the rest of the Western world is privatising itself into a Hobbesian hellhole, the French take to the streets en masse to defend their right to a high quality of life.”
http://www.dailylife.com.au/news-and-views/dl-opinion/what-we-really-should-learn-from-the-french-20120727-22xwv.html
by lefty e on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:28 am
That’s the way you would like it to be. Not the way it is.
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:29 am
Has anyone noticed the parallels between matters olympic and the JG v Abbott-the-tool contest? The pathological infection of the MSM political branch has spread to the sports branch.
1. It has involved a competitive man and a competitive woman
2. The MSM have been concentrating on two athletes in the lead-up …. Leisel Jones and James Magnussen.
3. JM has shown himself to be a pugnacious character and has spent weeks talking himself up ….. “I only need to swim at 80% of my capacity to win” ….. whereas Ms Jones has been quietly going about her business, training.
4. JM, the pugnacious one, has been lauded for weeks all over the media ….60 minutes, women’s magazines, the tabloids …… all unquestioning, adoring, free adverts. …..last week a two page centre spread about JM’s invincibility. Nothing of the sort for the lady.
5. The only pre-olympic press about the lady has been criticism of her body ….. claiming that as a 28 year old her body is not like it was when she was a 15 year old Olympian, and worse. Really? She graciously and resiliently just got on with the job.
6. Today the men’s 400 metres relay came fourth, not first as the MSM and the team have been telling us. The key strategy failure was that JM, the first swimmer did not build up the lead in the first leg as planned. In fact his time was more than a second slower than expected.
7. After the event JM refused to talk to the media.
8. Meanwhile the lady has been quietly succeeding in heats and semis and tonight will swim in the final of her chosen event. No fanfare. Win or lose, she is already in the top eight.
9. These unfolding events has brought to mind the maxim “pride cometh before the fall”.
10. I wish JM well in his coming events and hope that the maxim has now been fulfilled and will go away. And good luck to LJ tonight.
Let this be a warning to Abbott, the Colonition, and Abbotteers here.
by psyclaw on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:29 am
Good Morning Early Bludgers!
I see that Liberal voters still want Kevin Rudd to lead Labor.
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:30 am
Lefty e
The French protest becuase they have a unitary system of government. One national government, no state governments.
Its winner take all. No one to balance it. No one to moderate it. No one to push back.
Its protests driven by the structure of the political system, not by some cultural aspect.
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:31 am
psyclaw
Great post!
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:32 am
That is a very significant change. If it continues, Labor support growth will follow. The dismay has largely been about uncertainty, which all voters fear.
While bluegreen takes issue with support for Gillard solidifying among Labor supporters with some justice (Labor has to win back the others), its importance is that it kills speculation about leadership.
Gillard has had a big win over Credlin on a values with NDIS, humbling the coalition premiers before they caved. That, along with the various reforms coming in will destroy the myth that Labor doesn’t stand for anything.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:33 am
Wrong spelling.
Tu quoque.
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
bg
We know your stance on the Labor leadership. Change the tune. Let us hear about changes you want in the Liberal leadership. Would make for a refreshing change.
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:34 am
Victoria
It gives me optimism ….. hopefully others too.
by psyclaw on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:35 am
What evidence is there for Gillard solidifying support with Labor voters?
by bluegreen on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:36 am
bg
You sure do. Like 60% of nothing.
by kezza2 on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
James Magnussen: My Part In His Downfall.
Guess who thought up the nickname ‘The Missile’ ?
Yes it was moi.
I remember the day on Twitter, I was just scrolling through the early morning Tweets when I saw Eddie McGuire on MMM Breakfast had a Twitter comp to thibnk of a nickname for the new boy sensation in the pool. So I put my thinking cap on quickly, and, as he was the successor to ‘The Thorpedo’ and his surname started with ‘M’ it led me to thinking maybe as Thorpe=Thorpedo then Magnussen=The Missile.
So I Tweeted it to Eddie, thinking maybe it was too close to Thorpie’s nick, but back came a Tweet from Eddie & Mick Molloy that they thought it was great!
And the rest is history.
Though I sincerely hope he lives up to a reputation as an ICBM and not a dud Scud in the 100M Free.
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:38 am
Guys, nothing will convince bluegreen to change his mind about Julia Gillard. Why bother trying?
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:41 am
I have no interest in the Olympics. I believe it’s a repulsive spectacle celebrating human inequality. That said, it would be nice for Ms Jones to confound her critics and turn in a PB, if not a medal.
by Fran Barlow on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:41 am
I think I’ll have to stop reading PB and rearrange my sock drawer today. This miserable harping on nothing is getting me down.
by lizzie on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:43 am
c@tmomma
I too hope he does not turn out to be a dud Scud.
My point with bg, is that we are fully aware of his stance on the PM. Would be a pleasant change to hear his position on the Liberal leadership.
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:44 am
Fear of Carbon tax plummets.
Wow, that was quick, wasn’t it?
And it should keep on going too, especially as opportunistic companies, such as the Refrigerant Industry, and opportunistic Coalition State governments, keep getting exposed in public for trying it on and raising prices and electricity charges, in order to fatten their profits, and attempt to blame it on the Carbon Pricing scheme.
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:45 am
victoria,
Don’t hold your breath.
Maybe we should ask him what he thinks about the fact that the moderate wing of the Liberal Party, or what passes for one these days(Turnbull, Bishop,J & Hockey) spectacularly failed yesterday to get their man, James McGrath, up against the serial plotter, Mal Brough?
by C@tmomma on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
c@tmomma
I am still laughing about Brough getting up!!
Anyhow off to run some errands!!
by victoria on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:49 am
Helped by the rapid outing of Brumby’s attempted deceit & the ACCC’s reaction, and by ACCCs reaction to the power company which also tried it on. Abbott’s strategy was only going to work if Combet didn’t create processes to include ordinary poeple’s complaints on CP gouging, and screw anyone who did try the price hike, then blame it on Carbon Pricing.
I’d have though Libs & business would have learnt, during the Waterfront War, a salutary lesson on the dangers of messing with Greg Combet. Like the Bourbons, some arrogant politicians & business people learn nothing.
by OzPol Tragic on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:50 am
lizzie
Something from the weekend NY Times I hope will cheer you up. There more hope that the tide will turn in the debate over climate change. Some climate change heavyweights set up a project ( Berkley Earth Surface Temperature ) which was expected to blow AGW out of the water. At the end of last year they concluded that climate change is real. The team leader Prof Muller has just come out and said the data shows not only is it real “Humans are almost entirely the cause. “.
Hopefully the electorate will see fit to punish the donothingist Coalition.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html?_r=3&pagewanted=all
by poroti on Jul 30, 2012 at 9:52 am