Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
CC – The White Australia policy was a by-partisen policy minus support from the Free Traders and was removed by the Gorton Government with the full support of Whitlam.
The law was disgraceful but was a creation of the times when this country was less secure.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Only got time for one post today so I will make it count:
Springsteen is king.
by gloryconsequence on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Boerwar – how did you get your hands on the Lib’s policy document? My draft of it also had ‘(5) Declare you had to do all this and break popular spending promises because Labor had left a Great Big Budget Blackhole; (6) screw public health in favour of private health and insurance companies; (7) screw public and TAFE education in favour of private sector; and (8) Immediately grant land and planning deals as well as government contracts with major financial supporters’ (‘though I think that last one may have bi-partisan support from Labor?)
by sustainable future on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:31 pm
CC – but those average WA voters, who will benefit from the super profits tax, were incited by greedy mining billionaires to believe they don’t deserve it.
Gorblimey, the rest of the community agrees more should be paid for stuff which, once gone, can never be replaced.
Forrest thinks it OK that his companies paid no tax for 16 years while he indulged in luxuries for himself. A few decent billionaires, like Warren Buffett in the US, actually believe they should repay their communities for the advantages they had in making their wealth. What’s wrong with the Oz lot.
by BH on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Compact Crank
The major contributors to the mining tax will be BHP 1. Rio Tinto 2. and Xstrata 3.
They will contribute something like 75% to 80% of the total mining tax revenue that is expected to be raised.
Those three companies have all agreed that the Australian people are entitled to a greater share of the resources that they own through ROYALTIES.
Palmer, Rinehart and Forrest are screaming because, as in contrast to shareholders of those big mining coys, they stand to take a hit personally in their pocket through their great wealth.
Palmer, Rinehart and Forrest should be doing something better with their time and great wealth rather than interfering in the political debate in their own greedy FAT selfish interests.
Real FAT by the way
by Centre on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:35 pm
@2792 – Tom – there is so much desperate junk here from the Lefties it is hard to resist correcting the errors. Fortunately most of them are so electorally/psephologically blind in the same manner as the Parliamentary ALP that they take great pride in ignoring anything I say – which is a good thing because you never give a sucker an even break.
Yeah, Howard had to go and should have handed over to Costello a year or so before the election,, and yeah, Work Choices was poorly managed and cost us, but we didn’t deserve these two terms of policy incompetence and ineptitude – fortuantely the voters are smart enough to turn things around when they have the opportunity, and will.
Anyone still beleive Abbott is for the chop before the next election because he is doing such a bad job, ya know.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:36 pm
2804
Compact Crank
Like I said, you sound completely desperate
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:38 pm
I’d like to hear Swannie walk onto stage today with Billy Bragg’s version of Woody Guthrie’s “All you fascists are bound to loose” blaring http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2pDRIJC31tU .
Perhaps he could walk off to Paul Kelly’s ode to Howard “In the land of the little kings”. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OCCdxVQN4e8
(& his nephew has a great song ‘election night’ about the Latham election http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-WGfrEj0pE – I’ve seen him get crowds singing sweetly to the chorus – magic stuff – but hope I’m not singing it in 2013)
by sustainable future on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:42 pm
@2803 – BHP, Rio and Xstrata are seasoned political players – they play the hand they are dealt. Just because they weren’t out there making the same noises as Gina, Clive and Andrew, doesn’t mean they think it is good policy. It is much like most of Corporate Australia’s enthusiasm for things “Green” – it’s marketing and politics not conviction and passion.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:42 pm
@2805 – I’m not the one who’s party has a FPP of only 30% and 2PP of 45%. Why would I be desperate?
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:43 pm
CC – I for one expect Tone to lead the Liberals to the next election and expect that he will win but I give him less a few months to start having to break promises or come up with CanDoSack policy inspired responses.
Tone has talked himself into as nasty little corner, of course he could stock us by just accepting all existing policies and proceeding to not do much.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Poor old CC, like a broken record.
How anyone can say this govt has performed poorly when all the KPI’s are superb compared to any other country is either stupid, partisan or both.
by Henry on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Bush Appointee Strikes down “Defence of Marriage Act” (DOMA) as violating the Fifth Amendment requirement for equal protection under the law.
Well done Judge Vanessa Bryant, on this issue at least.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm
@2807. hooray for corporate hollowness and amorality!
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:44 pm
For Bludgers interested, you might want to check my comments from last night.
Heavyweights in the Liberal Party and on the shadow front bench are SECRETLY concerned, not only with Abbott’s negativity, but his POPULARITY for him to lead the Party to the election.
You wait and see!
Can’t wait for the NARROWING (in the polls) lol
by Centre on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:45 pm
@2802 – Plenty of tax is paid by companies that don’t make a profit – GST, Payroll, Royalties – and the rason they don’t make a profit is because they are taking massive risks, investing massive sums which attract depreciation charges, which is only fair.
If you have a problem with the Tax system, write to the Treasurer.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Centre – Yes that is true, Cameron Cline and Gail Kelly have given indications that the political tone needs to change as have other business leaders and senior policy makers.
This is mostly wrapped up in the argument that the problem with Canberra is the current numbers but also they are not overly happy with Tone and co.
The problem the Liberals have is, in order to change leader they are going to have to let the voters in on the muddle headed policies currently being put forward by them.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Americans are making a lot of progress on this issue.
Meanwhile here we are too worried about what a bunch of bitter 100 year olds and hateful bible thumpers think to actually progress on the issue.
(Funnily enough, if instead of being worried about offending Christians, we were worried about offending homosexuals, everybody would be screeching “political correctness gone mad!”)
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Does anyone know the cause of the indian power outage? I keep catching half the story!
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Cranky
The big three mining coys have negotiated a compromise with Julia and have STATED in their letters to shareholders that they agree in making a greater contribution for the resources that the Australian people actually own.
*must go*
knock yourselves out
by Centre on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Centre at 2813
I’ve been wondering if the libs are nervous about actually winning under Abbott and just where that might lead – just as Labor must wonder where the Latham experiment might have lead had he won, and learned the hard way with Rudd that ‘popular’ and ‘good PM/leader’ are not the same thing at all. Do you have inside info?
by sustainable future on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Absolutely brilliant article about Post truth political mendaciousness:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jun/21/mendacious-mitt-romney-bid-liar-in-chief
Just substitute ‘Abbott’ for ‘Romney’. For example:
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:53 pm
@2810 – and imagine how much better off we’d be without this incompetent ALP government – we wouldn’t be wasting billions on border protection to start with, wouldn’t be cutting Defence Spending to pre-WWII levels.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:53 pm
has abbott blamed carbon pricing yet?
by sustainable future on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:53 pm
sf,
I am sure it is on his agenda!
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:54 pm
“Anyone still beleive Abbott is for the chop before the next election because he is doing such a bad job, ya know.”
Abbott is the Coalition’s main weakness, and it is a massive one, that is being increasingly exposed. And they are keenly aware of that.
I wouldn’t bet the house on him leading the Coalition to the election. Though I would prefer he did.
by Just Me on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Space Kidette,
Hot Summer+ increasing size of middle class who now own air conditioners+ increasing level of industrialisation which requires enormous power inputs+ infrastructure not keeping up with pace of development= Big Blackout!
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Once again, the judiciary offers protection for individual rights and the principles of equality in circumstances where legislatures would abolish them.
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:57 pm
c@tmomma,
They were saying there are 700 million without power. That is HUGE!
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Compact Crank,
Your arguments are at the level of a 5th Grader. How old did you say you were again? Or are you just a typical de-evolved Conservo?
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:58 pm
@2824 – “main weakness” – got rid of Turnbull, saw off the CPRS, changed the MRRT, saw off Rudd, leads Gillard as Prefered PM (not that that means much) has a 55/45 2PP lead and the ALP vote is stuck around 30% FPP.
I’d rather have that “weakness” than any strength the ALP might have.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:59 pm
SK,
Half the country HUGE!
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:59 pm
CC
Not a press conference, it was all over the media two weeks ago. Like here-
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/travel/travel-news/palmer-prepares-titanic-ii-for-sail-but-pensioners-beware-20120717-227j0.html
And here –
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/clive-palmer-reveals-detailed-plans-for-titanic-ii-featuring-added-safety-features-and-bans-on-pensioner-gambling/story-e6freon6-1226427978039
And here –
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/safety-first-for-clive-palmers-titanic-ii-project/story-e6frg6nf-1226427977769
There’s much more, do your own search.
Do try to keep up.
by leone on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Really cranky? How much better off would we be then under a coalition govt?
What would the result be, be specific.
by Henry on Aug 1, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Exactly. You shouldn’t be. Yet you are.
Why so? General insecurity perhaps?
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Can’t be that secret centre!! (Abbott leadership rumblings).
by Henry on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:00 pm
CC@2821,
…if the Coalition would just stop playing politics with the issue of asylum seekers.
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Don’t engage with the Copy+Paste Hack. Never engage with Copy+Paste Hacks.
Their arguing style is the same:
1. Copy, verbatim, a pre-written talking point.
2. Repeat said talking point.
3. Use straw men and consensus fallacies to refute others.
4. Call everyone else “deluded”, “elitist” or a “party operative” and run off crying.
Best not to engage. Let them spew what they want on here, not get a reaction, get bored and go back to their shitty, pathetic lives.
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Under a Federal Coalition govt, we’d all be QLD.
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Now now, nothing short of a few generations of inbreeding could do that…
(JOKING! Put away your guns!)
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Carey Moore:
True — though it does raise an interesting point. If one really does object to “political correctness” ought not the right to offend both majorities and minorities be something everyone so objecting defends? Accordingly, if a judge or a politician says that gay marriage is OK, can anyone logically object on PC grounds?
by Fran Barlow on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Well, in this case, one side has a prohibition against it, whereas the other side doesn’t. So really, only one side can claim legal oppression.
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:08 pm
I should add that I regard “political correctness” as simply a vacuous slogan, typically used by the right as a pretext for the right to vent one’s animus at some marginalised or disempowered section of humanity.
The appeal against the “nanny state” is usally not far from the lips of those objecting to “PC”.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:10 pm
QLD is showing what happens when the latest hip conservative trend of Austerity is applied to economies that don’t actually need it.
The ALP needs to ask the Australia – do you want CanDo’s twin running the country?
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Actually I would rather be in government.
by Henry on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Isn’t that what I said this morning?
by bluegreen on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:12 pm
The resources boom is ending….this will obviously have major implications for the budget, interest rates, economic growth and employment, the exchange rate and inflation…..
The job ahead will be reading and responding to a slowing domestic economy in a weak global environment.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/big-miners-begin-to-cut/
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/08/chinas-pmi-underwhelms/
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Compact Crank will be orgasmic for weeks when he reads this news.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/us-bid-for-multibillion-dollar-nuclear-aircraft-carrier-strike-group-in-perth-20120801-23emq.html#ixzz22GSEOWw2
by poroti on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Sorry bg if you did… didn’t intentionally mean to plagarise.
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:14 pm
This is our media at work:
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:15 pm