Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
More importantly, what if we keep trading with them and interacting with them and aiding them to improve their internal domestic structures, instead of just flexing our muscles? That way the extremists don’t get the support to be able to take power in Jakarta and launch their holy war.
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm
huevos son cojones, sí.
by This little black duck on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm
@2883 – spoken like a fully indoctrinated useful idiot of the NDP.
A Governemnt doesn’t need to raise taxes if one reallocates spending priorities.
And if a governemnt generates improved conditions for businesses to invest, employ workers and make profits – then there is more tax revenue to allocate.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:50 pm
@rhysam: @bobjcarr Sad to hear about Gore Vidal. I know you two were mates. Thinking of you. R
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:51 pm
@Pollytics: As one of the dozen people actually *in* the QIRC yesterday listening to Dr McTaggart’s comments, no wonder Newman is nervous #qldpol #qqt
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Can Do keeps on doing.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/absolute-disaster-tb-centre-faces-closure-20120801-23eja.html
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:54 pm
@strom_m: “Media has become more opinionated nastier shallower … because the technological changes have privileged those kinds of voices.” @ALeighMP
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm
“– and imagine how much better off we’d be without this incompetent ALP government –”
Where have I heard that sort of guff before? Ah, yes,…
“Interest rates will always be lower under Liberals.”
JWH
by Just Me on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm
@2895 – I didn’t say that it was a certainty and I am well aware of the strategic situation of Indonesia – I put out there a highly unlikely scenario – just as the Militarisation of Japan and the rise of Fascism in Europe and the rise of Communism all were not forecast or prepare for.
We do not know the future and therefore we need to tak steps to prepare for it – you plonkers all love the precautionary principle and bang on about it with respect to climate change – but come Defence Strategy you completely ignore it.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Gore Vidal, known for the length of his novels, also was capable of giving succinct advice:
“Write something, even if it’s just a suicide note.”
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:55 pm
middle man
Little big man plumbs new depths every day!
by BK on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:56 pm
India’s power supply – So many tap into it for free by just hot plugging themselves in, they wouldn’t have a clue how much they are supposed to be producing.
Here is the man who broke the camel’s back?
http://www.bz-berlin.de/multimedia/archive/00082/dbimgCA7PA0UO_82033a.jpg
by PAAPTSEF on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:56 pm
ex Prime Minister Johwn W Howard does an opinion piece I agree with. I suspect many at PB will do as well.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/brothers-in-arms-yes-but-the-us-needs-to-get-rid-of-its-guns-20120731-23ct7.html
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Populare Vidal quote on twitter
@AlanKohler: Vidal: “Every time a friend succeeds, I die a little.” “I never miss a chance to have sex or go on TV”. “A good deed never goes unpunished
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Crank – Sure there is some truth in your 2901 but if you only rely on that approach, there may come a time when you find yourself very short.
The Greeks have a problem with a lack of revenue, the Americans have a problem with a lack of revenue, Australia does not have a problem with a lack of revenue and why.
Because Australia is willing and able to raise the required level of taxes and for the most part is frugal with spending.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 1, 2012 at 2:58 pm
BH
I think the government has quite a difficult problem in introducing a policy to regulate the media without creating an absolute firestorm from which they (the government) would not recover before the election. I’m also sure they will have some very smart people working on it at the moment. The PM‘s media supremo is. I think, engineering some major changes that we are starting to see in the government’s presentation of itself and I wouldn’t be surprised if he is also providing advice on how to get the media to improve. I doubt it will be a copy of the Canadian model, as that might be too obvious. In fact, it might be largely invisible to the public.
by ajm on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:00 pm
This is one of the worst ideas I’ve heard. The Americans have a saying about wars, which is that if you have to fight them, it is better to wage them somewhere other than on your own territory – that is, fight them in another country. I do not like the idea at all that we should be part of a possible US-planned battleground. We have had a marvelous run in the Indian Ocean with relatively little strategic competition. We should make sure this continues.
As well, for what it is worth, I am also very unhappy with the increased strategic pressure being placed on China by the US and with our part in what is an overt policy of enhanced strategic containment. This is directly contrary to our economic and security interests and will inevitably have the result of increasing military tensions in our region.
Indeed, we can already see Chinese resistance to US pressure in the current territorial dispute in the South China Sea. This is wholly to the region’s and Australia’s detriment but is without any cost at all to the US, who have been instrumental in raising pressure on China. For mine, one of the most disturbing things I have seen in recent years was President Obama using the Commonwealth Parliament as a podium from which to declare that the US intended to more actively muscle up to China. This may be in the interests of the US. It is avowedly not in ours.
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:00 pm
C@tmomma: I would have thought the fact that it is struggling to feed it’s people and improve their lot in life would make them more likely to invade.
Obviously i don’t think it’s going to happen but that’s a weird argument to make
by McFly Marty on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:00 pm
and yet another nice bit of work by CanDo. they certainly are busy.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/loss-of-working-conditions-worse-than-workchoices-union-20120801-23elo.html
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:02 pm
@abcnews: A boat carrying 69 #asylumseekers is believed to have arrived undetected at the #Cocos Islands http://t.co/iTL3fHTA
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm
GORE VIDAL IS DEAD!
BOB CARR IS GOING TO CRY FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS!
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Another popular Vidal quote.
“Look, am I going to sit and weep every time a young hooker feels as though she’s been taken advantage of”
About the rape of a 13yo by Roman Polanski
From this interview
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/10/a-conversation-with-gore-vidal/7767/
by bluegreen on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Re Germany pre WWI-et al
________________
Compact Crank shows his real historical ignorance when he speaks of Germany pre-WW1
If he would read Edmond Taylor classic work”Europe;The Collapse of the Old Order 1905-1922″ he would see the way many in Europe feared not only Prussian militarism and it rise after 1870 in the united Imperial Germany but the way various military alliances locked Europe into a state where a disaster was inevitable
Bismarck many years before the war…on his deathbed…..warned a friend that it would all end in catastrope as he said..”probably due to so fool thing in the Balkans ”
The great military leaders were too stupid to see that a great War would set loose the forces of revolution..of which the Russian was the major one…but they occured everywhere from Ireland to the Balkans as the old order collapsed..all as the result of a military csate which dominated Europe,,,as it now does the USA
As for Japan it’s rise began in the late 19th century when the Japs fought a war with China and took Formose(Taiwan) then attacked Russia in 1905..
The power of the militarist in Japan was know to Deakin and Fisher…no suprises there when WW2 came..
by deblonay on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Nah…just paid a lot of attention to texts on the cold war. Why do you think Ronald Reagan was so keen on reducing both US and Soviet weapons? Because the existence and deployment of these weapons made the US less safe rather than more safe. More recently, GW Bush also sought and obtained reciprocal reductions in nuclear weapons, and for exactly the same reasons.
There is one fully indoctrinated idiot here, and most assuredly it is not me. CC, you are falling for fantasies of your own invention….please seek help before the delusions become neurologically engraved.
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:08 pm
As busy as the bantam rooster has been he has only exterminated about 20% of the Queensland public service jobs he plans to. I imagine by the time he gets to 80% the natives will be somewhat restless.
by poroti on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:10 pm
i said when he was elected that he is the ALPs best asset in QLD.
by middle man on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:12 pm
@MartinGHodgson: Dear President Bush by Gore Vidal: http://t.co/L5VQyAnU #RIP
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:14 pm
@2913 – the Greeks don’t have revenue because it is a national pasttime not to pay tax and that’s just one of their problems.
The US are buggered because Bush stuffed up by bailing put the failing banks – death by a thousand cuts for the US and EU and the rest of us.
by Compact Crank on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:15 pm
I am with you all the way momma….go tell em!
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Heart of a Raisin@2901,
Or, in other words, a heartless government upon coming to power, can slash the social services of those who would never vote for them so as to keep the taxes low of those who would, and their financial benefactors. Using as their justification a niggardly Randian thesis that ‘Small Government’= Good government. When, in fact, it is code for slash and burn government and government that advantages the powerful in society, via Social Darwinism, and rewards them, at the expense of the powerless, who they penalise.
Only problem with that thesis is, that businesses who make ever fatter profits, if allowed to via government policy, do not tend to invest but sock away the fat from their businesses in their offshore bank accounts. Or bleat to their conservative representatives in government(heaven forbid), to lower their taxes even more, so they can ‘create’ more jobs(and generally pay people peanuts if they do).
If they employ workers in this country, it is only those that they can find no other way of outsourcing that particular job to another country, cheaper.
Then, if a Conservative government is in power, if a job must be done in this country, they either seek to import cheap labour to this country to do it, at less than Australian Minimum Wage, on things such as 457 Visas, or seek to slash pay and conditions for Australian workers who vie for the jobs in an open market, with an emasculated Union presence.
Sorry, Compact Crank, but none of your glib reactionary conservative sloganeering is going to pass muster here. We are not easily bamboozled by political bragadoccio devoid of substance.
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Compact Crank
Nice attempt at rewrite. US failure is because of Right Wing policies of no taxes and deregulate everything in sight. As a result of this Bush had to act as a Socialist President in his last few months.
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Can somebody please tell deblonay to underline his headings properly!!!!!!!!
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:18 pm
briefly,
You mean M.A.D.? I think CC might have a passing acquaintance with it.
by C@tmomma on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Just love this
timwattsau@timwattsau
Vidal on Whitlam: ‘It was an unusual experiment, for Oz to choose as its PM its most intelligent man. It will not, I fear, be repeated.’
by Schnappi on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Shows On, are you for real?
by Lynchpin on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:22 pm
New Car Sticker for Queensland
“F#@K! I WISH I’D VOTED LABOR INSTEAD!
by IMOHO on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Of American Authors, Read every book of , Gore Vidal and James Michener
by Schnappi on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:28 pm
i thought unemployment rate is 5.2%
by victoria on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Schnappi, I’d add the greatest of all, IMO – John Steinbeck.
by Lynchpin on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:35 pm
My first ‘encounter’ with Gore Vidal was as one of two naive young 17 yr olds driving across the Nullabor. We came across a very tiny, old-fashioned, round caravan turned on its side, and, as we perceived it, abandoned.
Inside were what were probably the possessions of an intrepid and erudite loner, who must have had to drive off to get assistance. We took a couple of books – I chose ‘Julian’. Our innocence led to my own burgeoning interest in historical and philosophical concepts of society, and the never-ending battle to fight for social equality. As well as a passion for his books! In later years I consoled myself that even though I stole what was probably a valued possession, it may have enlightened at least one person.
by IMOHO on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Williamson resigns via text messagel his family cancel their “Thank You” party scheduled for next week and his daughter Alexander has resigned her position in Julia Gillard’s office.
Good riddance to the lot of them!!
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/williamson-quits-as-head-of-hsu-and-cancels-thank-you-drinks-20120801-23etv.html
by MTBW on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Alexander should be Alexandra.
by MTBW on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Do not know if this has been mentioned.
My apologies if it has.
Big announcement on NDIS coming up.
by Doyley on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Doyley
Thanks!
by victoria on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:44 pm
@abissicus: @Colvinius NewsCorp directors could face charges for neglect of duties. Via @GaeMar01 http://t.co/3AtM2f5Z
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:44 pm
LBD
Now I get it!
Comprendo!
by Tricot on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:45 pm
More in regards my post at 2943
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:45 pm
@TheKouk: @markatextor @GrogsGamut Fine… very happy with the best economic results in 50 years… yes indeed.
by guytaur on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:48 pm
gutaur @2493
This was the bit that amazed me “Lawyers for Rupert Murdoch’s company have protested against criminal charges ” as if they have a say in who is or isn’t charged with criminal offences.
by poroti on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:50 pm
IMOHO
I have read Julian and enjoyed it. Could you recommend another Vidal book to me?
by Lynchpin on Aug 1, 2012 at 3:51 pm