Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Gotta admire Jeffrey Sachs…he is always so clear:
Well worth a quick excursion to PS.
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:50 pm
You mean the one who bitterly resists? Yes.
by Carey Moore on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:50 pm
It may well have been intended that way, but it came across as carping. There doesn’t seem to be any particular crisis at present unless you take this leadership stuff seriously. There is a concerted drip going on with Fitzgibbon, Mark Bishop and the so-called leak about Beazley’s gloom. The common denominator is News Ltd.
Look, it’s clear the NSW Right is restless at present, but its far less clear that anyone’s listening to them, and why should they after their record of the last few years? As for the business of government, well, AS remains a political problem but nothing will be done at least before Houston reports. Other than that, I can’t see anything compelling to keep her around.
Anyway you ought to look at the upside. If she’s as bad as you claim, being invisible for a week or so might improve her ratings. It seems to work for Abbott.
It’s going to be a long, hard 15 months before an election. She might as well take a break now in order to prepare. Even if you want to judge where she is on the basis of the near-weekly opinion polls … nothing much positive in government movement is likely to occur this side of September.
I’ve scanned a lot of the backlog of posts, and I have to say that bluegreen, although just as pessimistic about Gillard as you and bemused, is much more constructive about how she and Labor could improve their position.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:51 pm
How long has Houston been given?
Surely Labor can’t go into the next election without the Houston committee reporting and the government responding to it and at least attempting to get legislation through (assuming that’s what Houston recommends).
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:54 pm
spur212:
You’re still seeing stuff through a tragics viewpoint rather than someone clued into the Olympics.
Think peripherals.
by confessions on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Funny thing: in his book, Bracks describes the problem the federal ALP have at the moment brilliantly (the removal of a democratically elected PM in his first term and what’s been associated with it) and then quickly shifts to the party/factional line about the February challenge and subsequent events.
He sounds like someone who has written a review about the ALP, knows exactly what the problem is right now (very interesting how he singles out Rudd’s removal as being a big issue in Queensland) but doesn’t want to be the one who rocks the boat.
The tone sounded to me like he was trying to avoid creating a conflict. I don’t blame him given he’d want the focus to be on his story and his time as Premier. More so given this book will be apart of history
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:58 pm
GD,
Bluegreen, bemused and Hotspur have added zero positive towards a Labor re-election.
That is their choice and welcome to comment to that effect.
by This little black duck on Aug 1, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Emo doesn’t let up……keeping the pot boiling nicely on No Specific Knowledgegate….
Craig Emerson MP (@CraigEmersonMP)
1/08/12 10:32 PM
.@BridgetOFlynn Fascinated by Abbott’s remark when PSlipper became independent last year: let’s see what the first half of next year brings.
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:01 pm
What about if you could get 500 million people to pay 2.99 for a world premier streamed to their loungerooms and mobiles
by PAAPTSEF on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:02 pm
briefly quoted Sachs:
Very much so. There’s also this on the US heatwave over at SkepticalScience, which is a fabulous site for the low/semi-initiated to climate science:
The whole article is worth reading, although it is also disturbing in its implications.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Thank you for the compliment.
by bluegreen on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:04 pm
That was May. This is August. It hardly represents any inconsistency.
As another poster mentioned, the Olympics are on. It’s a perfect time to have a break when nobody’s interested in public affairs.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:04 pm
I get the feeling the ALP know there is still a whole lot MOAR to come out on Ashby and LNP’s front bench involvement. Being done slowly comes to mind.
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
I haven’t been constructive. You are kidding! I was the one who was repeatedly asking on here what the PM can proactively do to improve things in Queensland.
I said she should go in the media up there directly and take the anger on the chin, listen to some tough stuff, maybe throw it back at them in order to build a bit of “I may not like her, but I respect her” and it was rejected as beneath the office of the PM.
All the other responses were either give it time or Newman. Nothing the PM can do through her actions.
15 months goes a lot quicker than you might think. We are 23 months into the current parliament and it’s gone like a flash. Keep in mind, I’m very aware of Abbott’s senate maths, double disolution timing, economic certainty issues
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Why would the distributors charge $2.99 when they can get you go to give them ~$10 at a cinema, plus another $10 or $15 to the exhibitor? And then charge you $15 – $25 for the DVD, Blu-ray or download? Or $5 – $10 for the pay per view?
They aren’t a charity.
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm
Gorgeous Dunny
What you’re going over has already been resolved
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm
spur212 @ 3355
So you have read Brack’s book already? Quick off the mark.
I will see if I can download a e-book version.
I saw you were getting some stick earlier tonight. Don’t let it get you down, it mainly comes from ignoramuses.
You, ShowsOn, feeney, daretotread, Carey Moore and MTBW are among the few worth reading on PB. A few more, who I apologise for omitting, but the rest can be summarised thus:
● Abbott – BOO!!!
● Rudd – BOO!!!
● Gillard – Infallible and beyond critical analysis
● Media – BOO!!! hopelessly biased 100% of the time
And not much more.
Little intellectual input and no willingness to engage in critical thought.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:09 pm
ShowsOn has a problem,
Houston has none,
report this month ,parliament this month,oaky has no problem,trying to convert empty headedness into what the country needs.
by Schnappi on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:11 pm
bluegreen @ 3560
Apologies for omitting you from my list of worthwhile posters.
I wrote a post praising one of yours earlier today but it just seemed to disappear into a black hole. You had written an analysis of Swans speech. Something I think is beyond most posting hers.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:13 pm
This brought me to tears. Newman will be responsible for the deaths of oldies through things like this. Some of the residents are in their 80s and 90s.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/campbell-newmans-caravan-park-sale-could-leave-300-people-homeless/story-e6freon6-1226440719737
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Because if they don’t do it someone else will.
by PAAPTSEF on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:14 pm
THEY own distribution which means they own the game. You are talking about some of the biggest media companies in the world. Time-Warner, News Corporation, Vivendi-Universal, Viacom, Sony, Disney corp.
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Bemused
Bought it yesterday. Finished it after dinner. Solid book. The anti Rudd stuff in the media is a beat up. He acknowledges the issues without trying to get too involved in it
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Bemused and your mob can be characterized thus
MSM fair and balanced
Abbott LOTO
Gillard an administrator
Rudd “I have little left in myself — I must have you. The world may laugh — may call me absurd, selfish — but it does not signify. My very soul demands you: it will be satisfied, or it will take deadly vengeance on its frame.” Charlotte Bronte
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:17 pm
Rossmore @ 3573
Oh, I forgot you comedy… apologies and thanks for reminding me.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Bemused
I missed your list and I missed your comments on my speech.
What did you think?
by bluegreen on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:19 pm
spur212 @ 3572
Your speed reading greatly exceeds my capabilities.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:19 pm
This is all the more compelling because the maths enables precision, abstraction and proof.
I wish it were possible for voters to bring legal action against recalcitrant politicians….for willful neglect and populist dissembling. Can’t see a cause of action there, only a cause for alarm.
by briefly on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:21 pm
bluegreen @ 3575
As always, I think your comments are most interesting and add much more valye to this site than the routine Rudd bashing and media slagging that passes for worthwhile thought here.
I find your arguments generally persuasive and wish to goodness you were on Gillard’s staff rather than whoever is responsible for the mush she dishes up.
What is your field of academic interest from which you derive your thoughts?
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:22 pm
Bemused 3573 happy to oblige. It makes my day.
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Scientist by training. Bower bird by habit.
Mainly through the social sciences, psychology and linguistics lately.
by bluegreen on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Bemused
He mentions the CPRS decision in relation to Rudd, but he uses the whole situation in regards to how and why to deal with the Greens Party. He even tells Labor supporters to refer to the Greens as the Greens Party and why the ALP should and will remain the mainstream progressive stuff. Powerful stuff
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:26 pm
bluegreen @ 3580
Interesting.
I was always of a scientific inclination and initially studied engineering.
My interest in other things like the so-called “soft skills” has grown, but I certainly lag you in what you have picked up.
They mystery to me is what attracts you to the “dark side”?
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:32 pm
He got this from Bob Carr.
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:32 pm
spur212 @ 3581
You have convinced me, I must read it.
Bracks was on LNL tonight with Philip Adams.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:33 pm
PMD 3569 the heartless bastard. Newman is providing a daily reminder of what we can expect from an Abbott led government. Cold hearted, arrogant and selfish.
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:33 pm
ShowsOn @ 3583
That idea has been kicking around among associates of mine for years.
Glad to see some big wigs have cottoned on.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:35 pm
America pressures the world
_____________
A US writer looks at what he calls “the overweening bullying and conceit”which see the US everywhere expanding it’s military capacity as it’s domestice economy shrivels
He notes the new “cold war ” growing up between Russia-China and the US..with Hilary Clinton as the new and arrogant aggressor
by deblonay on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:35 pm
It would have to be a big movie. Anne Hathaway starring and producing would probably do it. Paypal might like to through in a few bucks to ensure all the payments go via them.
by PAAPTSEF on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Does Bracks actually say this? As far as I am aware, Rudd was democratically elected by his electorate of which he still is the respresentative. He was elected by the Caucus to lead the Party, he was elected by the Caucus to no longer lead the Party.
by Scarpat on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Rossmore
Those parks would provide a supportive community for these elderly people. He is a psychopath, imho.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:36 pm
throw
by PAAPTSEF on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:36 pm
America pressures the world
_____________
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/31/americas-baleful-worldwide-pressure/
by deblonay on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:37 pm
WTF?
It was Clinton / Obama that got rid of the stupid missile defense idea with threatened to start a new arms race between the US and Russia.
Whenever you post about U.S. foreign policy all you do is write things that are completely wrong.
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:37 pm
seems hotmail , will become Outlook.com
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2012/aug/01/microsoft-outlook-hotmail-lost-cool?newsfeed=true
by Schnappi on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:37 pm
by Space Kidette on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Of course, of course, but this doesn’t change the fact that most Australian’s THINK they elect the Prime Minister. And when it is an MP that goes from Opposition leader to PM that just reinforces their feeling that their votes made it so.
Whether that is right or wrong or an accurate reflection of how our system works is besides the point.
It is the same with most Australians wanting a directly elected President because they assume that is how the system in other countries works, when the U.S. still uses an electoral college.
by ShowsOn on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Came across this from Robert Manne in The Monthly, a year into his PMship.
So far, Kevin Rudd’s response to the financial meltdown and the impending global recession has been extremely impressive: decisive, good-humoured and calm. He has been blessed by an entirely disciplined party, something neither Scullin nor Whitlam had, and also, after the brief episode of Nelsonian populist tomfoolery, by the arrival of an Opposition leader at once responsible, intelligent and mature
And then he blew it. Sad really I suppose, but he only had himself to blame. Pretty much managed to offside his entire front bench. No leader of men or women.
by Rossmore on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Scarpat @ 3589
What you say is technically correct but in practical terms is sophistry.
Voters will vote for a party based on the leader and the leadership team.
If the party then goes and makes a radical change, as happened in 2010, then some voters will feel a sense of betrayal that they now do not have what they voted for.
Certain imbeciles in Caucus and trade unionists failed to see this and the long term damage it would do.
Julia Gillard is tainted by association with this bastardry from which she benefited.
Rationalise all you like about policy etc, but it doesn’t seem to have changed public perception. That is why the ALP sits where it does in the polls and why Julia Gillard has distinguished herself by being less popular than Tony Abbott.
by bemused on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:43 pm
Scarpat
He writes about the issue of Australian vs US democracy in regards to all this.
He very much acknowledges that a lot of the issues are due to the events of June 2010 (he would know as he co-wrote the review). This is not the main focus of the book. It’s more of a brief closing chapter about his thoughts on current events and what can be done to improve things. He (like many ALP people) is very pessimistic about the next couple of years
by spur212 on Aug 1, 2012 at 11:44 pm