Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
different bucket; same shit?
by sustainable future on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Victoria
$2 Billion or so from memory. I’m more interested in finding a way out of the politics of the issue.
“Abbott was stubborn and too interest in playing politics with people’s lives but thanks to the good sense and deceny of Turnbull, we were able to find a way to overcome the bitter partisanship of the issue and focus on saving lives” etc etc etc
by spur212 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Mr Abbott said that the problem with the FWA Review was that it did not recommend the reintroduction of Work Choices.
Further, Mr Abbott said that the FWA Review Report confused Queensland with Spain, and Australia with Hong Kong.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:04 pm
If that was a genuine question from Latika then the answer is “Because we are the government and we set the policies.”
by This little black duck on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:04 pm
spur212
That is assuming Nauru works. Why would it work now? In any case, I will await the Houston report.
by victoria on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:04 pm
@4089 – no, he didn’t say that – he just made the very supportable claim that the ALP would bugger up the implimentation – situation normal for the ALP.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:05 pm
So which is it on the NDIS?
Mr Hockey we can’t afford it.
Mr Abbott we might be able to afford it.
Mr Abbott we can afford it because we are going to sell the NBN.
Mr Robb we can afford it but we are going to have to cut $6.5 billion worth of progams to do it.
Team Coalition: many voices talking out of one arse.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Clearly cc they quite rightly identify you as a threat to their livelihood and take quite sensible steps to cause you a little of the pain you obviously deserve in much greater measure for actively trying to undermine their security and conditions.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Three things drive the poor productivity results during the Howard years: high uncertainty over the industrial relations system, a tax system that set out to steer “investment” into property rather than new business fixed capital, and many years of under-investment in infrastructure.
The slackest and most ideologically-obsessed Government in memory wasted more than a decade. We are seeing the consequences now – an economy that is overly reliant on the resources sector and burdened by colossal property-related debts.
by briefly on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:06 pm
CC
Just a friendly reminder
by victoria on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Don’t drive Tanks onto construction sites – problem solved.
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Latika is such a shallow player. Imagine sitting in front of a tv all day and tweeting the pressers!!
by Henry on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Let’s face facts, the Nauru boatpeople policy of Tony Abbott is a con simply to prevent the government from finding a solution to the problem.
People smugglers can always sell their services by explaining to people, who can find the $5k to $10k to make the dangerous trip, that once they are sent to Nauru for processing they will find their way to Australia, if not worst case scenario New Zealand.
However, if they are to be sent to Malaysia, it’s no way hose!
Abbott is an @rsehole. I hope that committee gives the Malaysian solution the all clear with its full support.
The Greens will (if not are put last on ALP voting cards) support it and the issue can finally be dead, buried and cremated.
Outcome:
Winner – Labor Party, Greens, Refugees (by no longer being a political issue).
Loser – The Monkey himself
Tony Abbott.
by Centre on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:11 pm
@4105. “ALP would bugger up the implimentation (sic)” is a motherhood statement. its up there with interest rates will always be lower under the Coalition etc. you speak dross.
by middle man on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:11 pm
@4107 – I’m not on site – our guys are who are paid above award with flexible (for them) working conditions and they don’t want to be in the Unions but are bullied into it.
@4110 – heh.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Boerwar – Robb is correct but I think when the NDIS is set up and if ti is set up in the way that I hope it will then it will by default free up funds that can be spent on it.
The current disability sector is ineffective therefore potentially wasteful.
The Productivity Commission outlined this and many of the problems have been known for many years but both sides of politics have not been willing or able to clean it up, partly out of fear of the disability lobby.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:12 pm
@4109 – so allthose QLD Publi Servants should have no trouble getting a new job – well done Swannee looking after your Queenslanders.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:13 pm
@4094 To quote the Productivity Commission who know a bit more about than me:
“Garnaut (2005), for example, bemoaned the ‘reform complacency’ that had set in and the lack of genuine reforms since the introduction of the GST in 2000.”
“the effect of a dramatic increase in commodity prices on mining (by, for example, making it worthwhile to expend more extraction effort on lower quality deposits, which means using more inputs per tonne of output) Productivity Commission (PC 2009; PC 2010)” (NB from Roaldan: this section also makes reference to drought)
“Dolman (2009) looked for a comprehensive set of explanations in a comparison of the 1990s and the 2000s productivity performances. He noted some slowdown in the pace of productivity-enhancing reforms in the 2000s, but also judged that most of the gains from trimming workforces and improving utilisation of existing capacity had run their course.”
by roaldan1000 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Davidwh -
Fair enough, except I fail to see how the Queensland PS example relates to FWA and flexibility/inflexibility, which I thought was the topic at hand.
I agree, but that doesn’t seem to stop Tony Abbott and the business lobby from providing a one size fits all “solution”.
The thing about the IR environment is that any “problems” appear to be very marginal to most employers or employees.
For any highly paid profession in Australia there is infinite flexibility.
The restrictions in the system relate primarily to how the lower paid are dealt with in their employment, and that is perfectly reasonable because it is the lower paid who are the first to be exploited, and the least able to negotiate effectively on their own behalf (and hence where awards – ie inflexibility – and/or union involvement are critical).
As far as “management prerogative” – it’s true that unions do push the boundaries of what is reasonable to fight for, and it has in the past crossed over into interfering too much with the ability of management to shape their business as appropriate.
I’m not sure how far I would trust BHP management at something they have a lot of self interest in …
The Qantas dispute was interesting because, thankfully, we have Virgin operating in direct competition with Qantas, and Virgin and Qantas share the same IR landscape.
The difference comes down largely to how bloody minded Qantas management have been, and how little they are willing to talk to their employees about what the business conditions for the company are and what changes are needed. That’s largely because Qantas management is craptacularly bad; their main strength seems to be how adeptly they can blame everyone else for their own failings.
Qantas have made a series of strategic blunders, particularly related to purchasing replacement aircraft – they had some bad “luck” with respect to the Boeing delivery of the 787 etc, but even so they completely screwed up the important decisions there and failed to respond to the developing issues from Boeing.
Qantas decisions with regards to routes, pricing, strategic alliances, their low cost offshoots that fail to get off the ground in Asia, etc … all management screwups that have hit their profitability badly. In an industry that is notorious for being cutthroat and unforgiving of bad decisions and mishaps … and after all of that, it’s the employees who wear the consequences and, apparently, the blame.
But yes, Qantas and Virgin Oz operate in the same IR landscape, with the same unions etc. There are different legacy issues, of course, but ultimately it comes down to the relationship between management and the employees. Qantas have royally screwed up that relationship, Virgin have worked hard at maintaining a good relationship.
Flexibility, in that sense, is more about management having an honest, ongoing, trusting dialogue with their employees. If the employees and unions are on board, then businesses can make pretty much whatever changes they like with the support of the workers.
The IR system is for when that relationship breaks down and you fall back on what is written down in black and white. That’s where inflexibility kicks in, but it’s like most of the law – it’s a clunky bedrock that you hopefully normally don’t encounter when things are running smoothly, as they do for most employers and employees.
by Jackol on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:14 pm
briefly – Another potential reason was the lack of investment in skill training.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Board admits productivity shortcomings in the company’s annual report. We trashed the company, the workforce and the shareholders from woe to go. But we ate well.
The CEO is a sociopath, they admit. He is their third sociopath in a row. They are so damned charming, admitted the Chair.
The CEO confuses sacking people with improving productivity. We admit that our best people skedaddled as soon as they heard we had hired him. They simply checked with their contacts in his last company – now in administration – and they were told he was a turkey. Our best people are now working productively with the opposition, alas.
The Directors are on sinecures. None of them has ever had competitive job interviews for their directorships. None of them has ever been sacked as director. The bonuses flow like rivers of gold. Their jobs are never, ever advertised in the open market. It is all hey mate, want a job?
Fortunately, the directors have been able to limit female directors to the token single chickabiddy. She keeps making noises about flexible employment arrangements for our female workforce. Bitch.
One of the Directors thought that newspapers meant that the news would always be on paper. He rigidly apposed the introduction of any new technology at all. And he was the brightest of the directors because he was actually awake when some junior nobody suggested going online with the news.
The shareholders are in revolt. Too late, alas. ROI over ten years has been negative 50 per cent.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Another factor on productivity is government regulation.
Many of the regulations are worthwhile and have a sound purpose but in many cases slow potential productivity down.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Mitt the Twit.
____________
A witty article from “Counterpunch ” re the many funny and silly gaffes commited by Romney in his flying visit to the UK…amusing too that he really pissed off his Tory hosts
so much
He also had trouble with the LOTO Milliband …he must have forgotten his name at the Presser and called him”Mr Leader” which sounded quite silly too
The famous black athlete Karl Lewis said of the matter”some Americans shouldn’t be allowed to leave home ”
Romney said…if there is no America there is no free world ”
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/07/31/mitt-the-twit/
such patronising drivel !
by deblonay on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Your guys should be happy to join the union given your claim they are enjoying all the things unions have fought for and won and even more. They just want a free ride off the unions work and that is wrong.
If they were working without the benefits unions fought so long and hard to win for them I’d support without question their right to chose. But they just want to ear their cake and eat the honorable union members cake as well. Very unprincipled indeed.
Show me a worker working 7 days a week in very unsafe conditions for 1/4 of the pay the union members get and I’ll support their choice to join a union or not. But these bludger, scab, thieves desvere all they get and more and their employers get off lightly.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:19 pm
m
You want regulation? We do not have enough.
Hundreds of Greens policy measures call for specific areas of additional regulation. Not a single measure identifies reduction of regulation.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:19 pm
We could accept your bizarre assertion. Or we could just look at some, you know, facts.
From an Age article in 2006 (http://www.theage.com.au/news/in-depth/are-our-politicians-for-sale/2006/05/23/1148150251862.html)
From a Brisbane Times article this year (also include advertising) (http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/rocksolid-support-for-coalition-as-miners-donate-their-millions-20120201-1qtiq.html#ixzz22MX3l7R5)
From a Crikey article this year (http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/02/01/australian-electoral-funding-figures-liberal-and-labor/)
You could take Gillard’s advice and stop writing crap. Or you could take Shorten’s advice and use evidence when you write. Up to you.
by Son of foro on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:20 pm
As i thought you have no evidence, just an anecdote. Fail.
by Henry on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:20 pm
All or any of the above although #2 is doubtful.
At around $8 billion per annum no one has said how it will be funded once fully implemented.
by davidwh on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Boerwar – I wasn’t arguing for or against regulation, and having worked closely with people that create regulation I understand the processes that they follow.
Good regulation is needed but it does slow potential productivity not necessarily in a bad way.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:24 pm
You obviously have poor comprehension – watch the interview Morrison did on the 7.30 report recently. It’s pretty clear what he said.
by Henry on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Victoria
The panel is merely to show that Abbott will say no to even a panel of highly respected experts on the issue. He wants a deadlock, but if he does have a change of heart and comes to the table he wins by default anyway as he gets to say he’s controlling policy from opposition.
The least damaging political way out of this that I can see is the Turnbull solution unless the Greens Party decide to come to the table (but they won’t as they share the same position as Abbott)
by spur212 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:25 pm
All the public servants might get jobs but even if they do it wont make up for the problems caused by underfunding all of queenslands public services and infrastructure. The costs of that stupidity will be borne by Queenslanders hundreds of times over not just for the next 4 years but for decades.
Take one simple example with roads. For a small investment in maintenance you can extend the useful life of a road surface by a long long time. Without I you will have to replace the road surface much more often. Cando is a serious threat to Queenslanders for decades.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:25 pm
dwh
There is only one honest person in the Coalition when it comes to the NDIS – Mr Newman and he has said the NDIS can go and get farked as far as he is concerned.
All the other Coalition players are speaking with forked tongues, walking both sides of the street, and lying through their teeth.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:26 pm
I have a tender spot for Shane Gould, who seems so unworldly it is almost hard to believe. I used to see her running swimming classes for the non-elite at our local public pool. She appears to have managed to separate her native talent from the quest for a normal life.
Elite sport in general objectifies those who get into it. Doubtless this is part of the appeal for some, and the source of a lot of dislocation as well. I feel for them, on the whole…..they not only need to excel at their sports, but master social media and publicity management in their spare time.
by briefly on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:29 pm
How in the hell could the government, any government in the short to medium term, sell the NBN?
NBN coy is in its preliminary stages and has yet to start let alone anywhere near reach its full earning potential.
It would be the greatest welfare assistance package EVER given to anybody in the Nations history.
Rupert Murdoch – the greatest beneficiary of government handout of all time.
What a disgrace!
We should all cause a riot if Phone Hacker acquires it
by Centre on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Jackol I do agree QANTAS went about the process in a poor way however they did have to deal with a number of issues including implementation of new technology (should be a plus for productivity) which requires a lower maintenance requirement and deteriorating market conditions impacting on profitability. There is no way the union was ever going to be able to get QANTAS to agree on minimum job positions.
by davidwh on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:31 pm
I hope Qld labor is saying loudly and often the obvious truth that qlders will unnecessarily suffer because of these foolish unnecessary and politically motivated decisions. If they do they may even be able to turn cando from the biggest winner ever to the biggest loser ever in one term.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Spur212
Bullshit!
There is no way Abbott will be seen as winning on boatpeople if he is forced to compromise.
Stick to spinning in your dreams.
by Centre on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Boerwar you are probably correct as most politicians have perfected the art of speaking out of both sides of their mouth simultaneously. Regardless no one has yet said how a full implementation of NDIS will be funded.
by davidwh on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Boerwar
Perhaps the disabled should practise making like a hay burner ? Mr Newman could not find a couple of million for the disabled in Queensland but he did manage to stump up $110,000,000 for upgrading the Gold Coast Turf Club.
by poroti on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Boerwar
Don’t forget Abbott described the NDIS as “aspirational” a few months back.
by psyclaw on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:37 pm
http://newmatilda.com/2012/08/02/our-refugee-policy-no-longer-humane
by victoria on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Centre
“When a conservative force is met by a more conservative force, the more conservative force always wins” Kim Beazley Senior
Abbott is the more conservative force
by spur212 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:37 pm
It’s a great time for JG to take some time off and the government not to be talking much about NDIS.
Their seem to be some ‘nerves’ aggravated by this.
by CTar1 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:37 pm
ABC 7.30 Qld video here:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-02/newman-says-voters-grateful-for-job-cuts/4171762
Makes an interesting point, that the job cuts may in fact cost the State revenue. Newman says we have 20,000 more public servants than we can afford, not more than we need. Cutting services usually costs money in the long term.
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:38 pm
JG on hols and the government is not missing a step. Smith, Swannie and Shorten all doing stuff.
by This little black duck on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Do you support it or not?
I take it you do. Well you have to walkbefore you can run!
I’m getting frustrated here with Liberal Party talking points and stupidity
by Centre on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Spur212
Grow a brain, it’s 2012, not the 60′s.
by Centre on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:42 pm
And JG is supporting the local economy by taking a holiday in QLD.
by CTar1 on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Rubbish, The PM has said it will be funded out of General Revenue, that is how it will be funded. The issue is what gets cut or not funded in the future, not where the funds for the NDIS come from.
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 3:43 pm