Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@4232 – you would be aware that Pokies are only at Burswood – not in our Pubs?
It seems like a reasonable trade off to increase the diversification of the WA economy (moving away from those terrible mines), relieve some of the hotel room shortage adn the Greenies would love getting rid of the wasteful golf course.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 4:57 pm
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/national/8509673/fisher-costs-decision-reserved
Magistrate David Whittle ordered Fisher to appear in court again on September 13.
The hearing lasted less than five minutes but was the senator’s second court appearance of the day.
She earlier appeared in the Adelaide Magistrates Court as her lawyers continued their efforts to get back some of the costs of an assault and shoplifting trial last year
by lizzie on Aug 2, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Especially if you were a Public Servant and just got sacked.
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 4:59 pm
A public servant on $150,000 will most likely go to the private sector and earn double, yes double but yeah lets pretend that the public sector has an out of control wage bill
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:01 pm
CC
Pokies are a curse. Everyone knows it. How stupid is Mr Barnett suckering the western australian people like this?
He is flogging off public land so that that Mr Packer can build a pokie palace: what an utter disgrace.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:02 pm
CC:
Rich is a highly subjective and relative term and isn’t very useful in these arguments. The better question surely is — how should the burden of funding the services the public needs be defined and settled? It’s not only the anomalously wealthy who should bear a burden but the comparatively privileged and those who can otherwise afford to contribute in one way or another.
Whether one has a mortgage is no more germane to one’s social status than whether one has a savings plan or several cars or two children in private schools or likes annual holidays in Aspen. These are lifestyle choices. There is a difference between cost of living and cost of lifestyle. It seems to me that households on $150k are not in need of substantial direct state support save perhaps in cases where there are very unusual circumstances.
Disclosure: Our household income exceeds $150k. We have rented since October 1991.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:04 pm
MB
Code for – ” I have no idea what I am talking about but I’ll keep going nonetheless”
by gough1 on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Really?!
Just where are these $K300 jobs? Any links to job agency ads? I suppose there are hundreds of them to choose from?
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:07 pm
fb
While you are here, could you confirm whether or not it is the intention of Greens policy measures to stop the kangaroo harvest?
At $400 million over forward estimates, the lack of clarity about the size of the potential hole in rural and regional economies matters.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Gough1 – Okay what do you think statutory formula means. If no will is issues then the state can step in, this falls under the powers of the office of public trustees.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:08 pm
Estate and Gift Taxes in Australia never collected much revenue. They actually acted as an enforcement measure for Income Tax.
Gift taxes act as a disincentive to people giving away a portion of their wealth during their lives to relatives to lower the overall income tax burden of the family. There is still an echo of this in the rules that prevent Centrelink partial benefit recipients from giving away more than a certain amount of assets per year.
Estate Taxes, which are generally limited to very large estates, tend to collect some money that has “missed” the income tax system during the deceased person’s life.
From an economic point of view, the good thing about them is that they do not have any effect on distorting resources allocation in the economy.
It was a great pity that Qld under Joe B-P led a race to the bottom on these taxes. However, the increasing evidence about the increasing divide between rich and poor and the destabilising effect this has on society may present a political opportunity to reintroduce them.
by ajm on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:08 pm
$150K per year is rich. With mortgage and kids, my wife and I, with joint income in the order of $120-160k depending on business have found the mortgage killed and our savings just go up and up.
by sustainable future on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Tom- my point is a public servant on $150,000 will be seen by the private sector as a potentially very good candidate and will be able to earn more money in the private sector.
The private sector does not share the dim view of public servants that some Liberal Party people do
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:10 pm
sf
All very well, but it is not sustainable for the planet.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:10 pm
By choice? Sorry if I am being too nosy.
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:10 pm
While we are asking these questions, are there any moves by Labor or Liberals to make it legal in Victoria.
by fredn on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:11 pm
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/staggers/2012/08/morning-call-pick-papers-0
Some articles, as you’d expect, use the Olympics to discuss other issues.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/aug/01/sport-britain-elite-privilege-schools
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/anthony-seldon-let-the-games-inspire-us-to-a-new-vision-for-all-schools-7999203.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/9444502/No-one-would-be-cheering-for-Team-Europe.html
by Leroy on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:11 pm
It takes very little maths to realise the inner city suckers are the one’s that have brought.
by fredn on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:12 pm
fredn
I sincerely hope so. We have managed to keep them off the flats but they are killing pastoral productivity on the hill country down round our farming way.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:13 pm
And another way to save money – private sector this time – disband the AFL……..
Whoops! Forgot, paying a 20 year-old squillions to kick a bit of leather is an important job.
However, to be democratic, might be time to have a hard look at all other over-paid “sports”. Maybe, professional golf could be a good start?
Maybe just disbanding the AIS could be the way to go? What did somebody say that each swimmer cost the taxpayer $600K while the hockey players come in at $700K?
And did somebody just a few posts back say our one gold so far has actually cost some millions of $$$?
by Tricot on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Wow Another BISON. Trade balance surplus of $9m in June Vs a deficit of $313m in May Vs Economists’ forecasts of $400m
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/business/a/-/national/14437550/trade-balance-moves-back-to-surplus/
by The Finnigans on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Yep, no doubt about it “rich” is a relative term.
When many on the planet are surviving on less that a $1 a day, yep, “rich” is a relative term.
by Tricot on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:15 pm
BW:
AIUI we haven’t developed an express policy on that. We are against live export and do favour protection of biodiversity and habitat, oppose cruel treatment of animals, but beyond that I’m unaware of any direct policy on the matter.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Tricot if we fail to win another GOLD then that one cost $588 million assuming winning gold is the only goal of the “investment”.
by davidwh on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Tricot
The figures are rubbery. The most common set of figures is $40-50 million per gold medal. That was before everyone started blubbing, freezing and skyping instead of applying themselves with sang froid, like the french.
Since the medals only contain a few hundred bucks worth of the real thing, we are being dudded big time on our Olympic investment.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Gough 1 and MB
Intestacy does not automatically mean the “state” has won the lottery.
The Succession Legislation in the various states provide formulae and priorities for distributing the estate to dependants ….. spouses and kids mainly, but other dependants too.
by psyclaw on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:16 pm
I doubt packer is put up the money to make a loss.
by fredn on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:17 pm
fb
(a) Don’t lots of Geens consider kangaroo harvesting to be cruel?
(b) Consider that there will be a major impact on some regions, wouldn’t it be fair and reasonable of the Greens to be a little more upfront on this policy issue?
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:18 pm
This is a doozy: (“it’s not nepotism because families work together in lots of businesses”)
http://newmannnn.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/lnp-leading-nepotism-party/
by swamprat on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:18 pm
The real point of Quiggan’s article is that he took 1,500 words to refute:
THAT is the point, and the tragedy of what happens when liars like Campbell spout their nonsense.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:18 pm
I always feel an uncomfortable twinge in the groin area when the word ‘intestate’ comes up.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Well I hope you come out in favour of it and developing ownership policies that support it, they are a lot better for the environment than cows and sheep.
by fredn on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:20 pm
by lizzie on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:20 pm
Tricot
*fingers in ears, not listening*
Not this year! No way! The Hawks are going to be premiers!
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:20 pm
CC appears to have departed. His shift must’ve ended at 5.00pm.
Come on down the Menzies House worker doing the evening shift here.
I wonder how many blog sites each of the Menzies House trolls must manage each shift?
Is the pay good?
by psyclaw on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Hang about Mr Kennedy, what happened to Coal? ” the fall in coal and iron ore exports volumes” or “Coal exports were slightly more encouraging, with volumes for hard coking and thermal both increasing”.
How do I get an economist gig, say the exact opposite and people pay me,
by ruawake on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Must pop over and ask him if he has any voters regrets for exhausting his preferences at the last state election.
by fredn on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Don’t think this was mentioned yet: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-02/education-bridges/4172684
by rishane on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:25 pm
I though 5pm might have been their bedtime. maybe they will be allowed to sit up and watch some sport, not that they want any inspiration from it for they are very serious
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:26 pm
@4276 – there aren’t pokies in the pubs – you have to go to the Casino to play them – when I say no one – that is relative to the rest of Australia.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm
A lot of legal costs can be spent on determining how much by way of legal costs should be paid.
by shellbell on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:27 pm
@4278 – and newman could have just said “check out the ALP/Union nexus.
by Compact Crank on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Aha! BW – self-interest triumphs.
Okay, let’s do away with the cross subsidies – no more Collingwood money supporting all the loser clubs and, do away with anything less that mega dollars for the public owned stadiums.
What am I saying! Sacrilege – to actually question how much is spent on our de facto religion – St Sport.
There is never enough money to pay of the bread and circuses to keep the peasants happy. The Romans knew a thing or two about this.
by Tricot on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:31 pm
fredn
This is a common misperception on the part of very ecologically ignorant and cruel animal rights persons in particular.
Grey kangaroos are just likely every other herbivore on earth – freed of predators they will eat themselves out of house and home. Their populations will boom in good years and crash in bad years. However, Grey Kangaroo population booms are no longer moderated by predation (dingoes and Indigenous hunters). The booms therefore have a higher amplitude. This is made worse because Grey Kangaroos have access to plenty of nutritious imported grasses coupled with an extensive system of artificial watering points with lovely shelter belts where they can enjoy their day-time rests.
The result is that Grey Kangaroo overpopulation and over-grazing become a key threatening process for some endangered species. Not only that, but they suffer the misery of vast loads of endo- and ecto-parasites arising from over-crowding and eating their own faeces. Naturally this is most evident on national parks. This is because rangers and park authorities are targetted by ignorant, grand-stranding do-gooders, while farmers quietly keep the roo numbers down to reasonable limits.
It is quite a simple routine scientific matter to calculate a harvest that will (a) stop this terrible suffering on the part of the Grey Kangaroos themselves (b) allow us meateaters to allow some grazing of sheep and cattle and (c) generate some economy in rural areas as an alternative to the Greens’ propensity to shut all economic activity down other than organic peasanthood and inner-city wealth consumption.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Tricot
My favourite circus would be Hawthorn thrashing the Pies by 200 goals in the grand final. I would just about vote for Mr Newman if he could give me that outcome. As long as the grand final isn’t in Spain or Hong Kong.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:32 pm
Boerwarr
Ah, a sister track for Hong Kong’s Sha-Tin racetrack The Qld Shat-On racetrack
by poroti on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:33 pm
Jackol @ 4118
Great post, in particular I liked this bit.
The Aussie, Borghetti who missed the top job in Qantas when they imported that stupid Irish git is running rings around the Qantas management cabal.
Borghetti fosters staff loyalty and is it ever paying off!
Your statement: “Flexibility, in that sense, is more about management having an honest, ongoing, trusting dialogue with their employees. If the employees and unions are on board, then businesses can make pretty much whatever changes they like with the support of the workers.” is absolutely right.
What is it with so many managers in so many companies that they fail to see that engaging the workforce in a collaborative manner will lead to productivity improvement, a much happier and committed workforce and few, if any, IR issues?
On a micro scale, where I have managed people, this is how I have operated and once freed up people become self motivated to perform and can be managed with a very light touch. My teams have been very harmonious, high performing and self motivated.
I have been thinking for a while that the ALP needs to come out with a ‘brand’ for it’s IR policies and philosophy and I offer “Collaborative IR” where the management are encouraged to engage with their workers and their unions to jointly work in the common benefit. It requires a bit of effort in trust building but openness and honesty to staff is a good starting point as is management doing real radical stuff like seeking to engage with the unions to see what their views are.
I don’t know what it is with small business that they see unions as the enemy. If they engage with the unions when appropriate they will generally get a reasonable response. Dismissals is an issue constantly raised with idiot comments about “go away” money. I have never found workers who like working with a bludger, or someone who is incompetent or dangerous so, if proper process is followed, such as documented warnings, and the union talked to in advance of a dismissal and convinced it is reasonable, there will be no problem.
by bemused on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:34 pm
CC @ 4291
You don’t get it at all, do you?
1. You use the childish statement “they started it”, therefore it’s OK for me to do.
2. Newman sacking 1,00s of ordinary people so the LNP can get onto the public teat.
Even your in-house journals don’t agree
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/arts-minister-ros-bates-son-gets-contract-while-thousands-of-public-servants-lose-jobs/story-e6freon6-1226430381222
by swamprat on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:34 pm
compact crank
Please stop yammering in favour of pokies and in favour of a very, very stupid Barnett state government that has just agreed to hundreds more being installed in a grubby deal with a gambling tycoon.
Some of your posts have merit. On this particular theme you are flogging a very, very dead horse. Pokies are destructive. Period.
by Boerwar on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Boerwar Labor has more chance of winning the next QLD election than the Hawks have of scoring 200 goals in 120 minutes.
by davidwh on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:35 pm