Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Good Morning
Mr Swan continues to do well. His linking of Springsteen has got an attack article out of the Daily Telegraph today. Of course most Australians will back Mr Swan and not politicians of New Jersey. So a win for Mr Swan and a fail for the Daily Telegaph there.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:47 am
I see the Coalition has nabbed a Greens policy on ownership down at the farm.
The Nationals must be feeling a little heat at least from the Greens.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:51 am
So the FWA review was set up to determine whether the legislation was operating as intended.
Surely much better if it had been set up to determine if it was working how employers would want it to work!? Or even how unions want it to work!
Or perhaps some mealy mouthed formula that predetermined an outcome one way or the other?
Why do journalists swallow such s**t without even pressing the point!
by ajm on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:52 am
MM I wasn’t suggesting you were just most of the rest of the country. We seem to have gotten ourselves into a permanent whingeing mind-set about everything and anything. We should all just take in the smile on that youngster’s face and get over it all. Australia remains a pretty great place to live.
by davidwh on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:55 am
David 4797
I still have in my mind the picture of Sally Pearson doing cartwheels and handstands after she won silver in 2008.
Not for her this sense of utter failure because she didn’t win. She was over the moon because she came second. What a wonderful inspiration and role model for young Australians.
by Darn on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:55 am
@smh: World News: Rebekah Brooks charged over phone hacking http://t.co/ngBI7ufU
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:55 am
@marygarden: @Colvinius @SpencerHowson No change yet: Australia still in central Europe on NBC website via @theJeremyVine: http://t.co/GJGmDBR1
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:56 am
too true david.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:57 am
Darn so very true
by davidwh on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:57 am
darn. i recall the interview after as well. wonderful viewing. she was ecstatic.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:59 am
Hey based on the current medal table at least Australia is fourth best in the world at coming second. That should cheer people up
by davidwh on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:01 am
for a ‘middle power’ that sounds about the right place to be david.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:04 am
davidwh
Just what I thought when listening to Fran on the radio this morning. We didn’t spend enough,we spent too much,we spent it on the wrong sports,disappointing. No nook or cranny in the search for a cloud on a sunny day was missed. However if you avoid the swimming you can still see people happy just to be there and ecstatic if they win a medal of any sort.
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:06 am
And if my understanding of Hockeynomics is correct, that also makes us second best in the world at coming eigth. Imagine how much better we’d be at coming eigth under a Coalition government. We’d be at least first, if not better.
Election now!
by Son of foro on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:09 am
It’s perfect politics to play this farmgate stuff. There won’t be any change at all if they implement their “policy”, yet the rhetoric appeals to the xenophobes and lets them go cheer chasing with the red necks.
Of which there are many.
by Burgey on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:13 am
Burgey, spot on.
by Lynchpin on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:16 am
And, given the stats, just another dishonest Newspoll-week beat up from desperate Liberals & their MSM supporters.
Stalled in OpPolls; Carbon price scare campaign shredding around them; premiers Cam, Barry & Ted turning voters into the unemployed, never mind their NIDS performances; Abbott’s making a fool of himself overseas, endangering Oz’s relationships with Indonesia & China, as well as out economy with his Anglosphere Parallel Universe Reality – of course they need a few more scare campaigns! Does any Coalition supporter care if there’s not even a shred of truth in any of them?
In addition, many Aussies who still have landline phones & answer OpPollsters’ phone calls (decreasing as mobiles, email & social networking sites like Facebook & Twitter take their places) probably don’t know much about scandalous revelations re Murdoch’s NewsIntel in the UK: phone hacking, chip-hacking, police & political corruption, blackmail and the prevalence of totally fake stories about celebrities & politicians published by the Murdoch press.
BTW 1, this week’s Essential’s responses are beginning to reflect the political shift in the 55 & Older demographic as BabyBoomers take the places (though in much greater numbers) of dying Menzies’ era voters.
BTW 2, USA analysis of voters who do not have landline phones, mainly younger (posted & debated on PB) indicate a distortion towards older, poorer and more conservative voters. None of GenX Offspring’s mates use landlines for anything but Internet connectivity. Their phones are mobiles – usually more than one – inc in their Internet access “package”.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:23 am
by Space Kidette on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:24 am
Hidee hodie everybodee!
My 2c-worth on the topics du jour this morning:
Actually, and surprisingly, no. And no one is more surprised to be saying that than me.
However, I happened to be listening to Marius on NewsRadio about 8.15am this morning and he had actually dug someone out from the Agricultural sector in Victoria for an in-depth, serious interview on the Abbott/Joyce Foreign Farm Investment policy, or ‘claptrap’ as he called it. It was a truly amazing interview because Marius let this guy(Chris ?) absolutely slice and dice the ‘policy’ for breakfast. Most satisfying to hear this latest piece of Agrarian Socialism and populist claptrap shot down before it has even had a chance to fly.
I have had a look on the NewsRadio website for a link to the interview but they only appear to be up to the politics discussion at 7.50 am so far. I’ll keep my eyes out for it though because it redeems Benson in my eyes somewhat. If only temporarily probably.
Secondly, wrt Rupert Murdoch. I always thought he had his Tweets composed for him by News Corp PR. However, it seems as though it is actually him, himself doing the Tweeting, also he actually reads the Replies to his Tweets, and then, even more amazingly, he responds to some of those replies, because he responded to one of my Tweets to him in the last 7 days!!!
I only just got over the shock yesterday when I saw the reply in my Inbox and opened it to read what he said. It wasn’t a troll, it was actually a refutation of sorts to what I had Tweeted(which was a bit cheeky
) :
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:24 am
Appears that the coalition are doing a look over there re foreign investment to avoid questions re IR policy. Abbott obviously does not want to talk about IR at all.
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:26 am
Personally, I see the idea of trying to crack down on those nasty furriners buying up our land as a potentially massive own goal for the right. Unless itturns out to be purely cosmetic and doesn’t in practice throttle back those bidding for land, it’s likely to prejudice the value of rural land in the longer run, and on that basis I’m happy for Abbott to hang his Akubra on this one.
Yet another reason to see Abbott as a complete fool …
by Fran Barlow on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:27 am
C@tmomma
I hope that the reply from the “global media tyrant” will be printed and suitably framed. Well done.
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:28 am
OPT. whilst i’m not completely sold on the phone type making polls distorted… i do know that alot of people won’t answer calls to mobiles that are from unknown numbers. i don’t.
and in the last week i’ve had three missed calls from a number that when i googled it said its the number for the mob who do outbound calls for Neilsen and Galaxy and other marketing research.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:28 am
For US politics
@GrogsGamut: Twitter Launches Political Index: The Twitter Pulse Of The Election http://t.co/NIp4I4qE via @buzzfeed
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:28 am
@AP: CBS going forward with lawsuit against ABC over ‘The Glass House’ reality TV show: http://t.co/kfYLlo6m -RAS
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:31 am
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/01/us-usa-syria-obama-order-idUSBRE8701OK20120801
Clearly, we have not been told the whole story about Syria. I think it is well worth asking who started the war? Is the US among Assad’s antagonists? How does the war in Syria relate to US policy towards Iran and Lebanon? Toward Russia? Considering the roles Turkey and Russia are playing, is this war a proxy for US/NATO/Russian competition? What are the strategic objectives of the US in the Middle-east?
Considering US activism in the Middle-East, and the increase in military, political and diplomatic pressure by the US in our own region – pressure that is aimed at China and is directly contrary to Australia’s economic and security interests – where is US policy heading? What are its purposes? How will they affect Australia?
The Howard doctrine – essentially unchanged by the Rudd/Gillard governments – positions Australia as an obligingly active financial, defense, security and diplomatic contributor to US policy. The working assumption seems to be that Australian interests are almost synonymous with US interests.
Considering the relationship with the US has resulted in Australian participation in more than 10 years of constant war in the Middle East and central Asia, it is in our national interest that this relationship be re-examined.
by briefly on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:31 am
c@tmomma
Well, that’s good to hear re Marius Benson. Maybe he realised how stupid he was regarding the “bogged down in numbers” comment. And maybe Emmo got through to him.
Of maybe as CO suggested, some peeps were outraged and rang the ABC and he quickly changed his toon.
Thanks for the update.
by kezza2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:32 am
kezza2 @ 4778,
Thousands might not, but I disbelieve you implicitly…
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:34 am
Fight against sexism is on.
@GrogsGamut: What if every Olympic sport was photographed like beach volleyball? http://t.co/1C7ThVSW (HT @heathergracious)
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:34 am
Poroti:
Even that Schlanger girl who came fourth seemed pretty happy, and from her POV, why not. That was despite the fact that the team honcho mentioned that someone calling out had cost her (and a couple of others) the start and thus a medal and another saying that she’d have got silver if she’d managed her semi-final time.
I always tell the kids that if you want to enjoy sport then you need to find a way to enjoy not winning, because in practice, that is likely to be your dominant experience. Mathematically, it must be so. Winning is a zero sum game, and most participants are by definition going to lose, more often than not.
On a totally separate matter, those who say that there isn’t enough diversity in morning radio just aren’t channel surfing hard enough. Admittedly, my quest to avoid hearing the same Olympic “news” more than once ientailed going to Alan Jones, but if that’s the price …
by Fran Barlow on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:35 am
Not the most intelligent way to win over more Gens Boomer & X (prob also quite a swag of Y) to NewsLtd & Abbott’s point of view.
But I guess “intelligent” hardly describes the readers at which the DT’s aims its more rabid tabloid rubbish & political crap.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:36 am
Re Marius Benson.
It seems to me that on some programs on the ABC the presenters are pretty much at the mercy of their executive producer – they’re told what line to follow, what questions to ask, etc. This is presumably how the editorial line is enforced.
It seems he may have got a chance to do a bit of his own work for the NewsRadio segment mentioned, unhindered by direction from above.
Reall make you wonder what Mark Scott might be up to.
by ajm on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:38 am
guytaur. when i read the article davidwh posted about Jessica Fox I immediately notice that not only was she beautiful but she can also handle a canoe!
much of the women’s sport is talked about in tones reminiscent of Zoo mag. its only the last bastions of decency that allowed the gymnasts to get away unscathed.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:38 am
OPT
It is worse than a lot of people realise. When people google the Mayor of New Jersey they will find out he failed to get into Federal GOP politics as he was too deemed too “out there”.
Anderson Cooper and Rachel Maddow actually had comedy segments on him. So you can imagine Jon Stewart and the Colbert Report takes
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:40 am
Fb. and here we were thinking you had principles….
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:40 am
OPT
Sorry that should be the Governor of New Jersey. My bad, but in my defence I submit it is hard to keep track of whom is the loon.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:42 am
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:44 am
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:46 am
@latikambourke: Treasurer Wayne Swan says the Opposition’s tougher Foreign Investment rules is a ‘dog’s breakfast’ which sends very ‘confusing messages.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:46 am
by Space Kidette on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:46 am
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:48 am
I read yesterday that the said Gov of NJ has been to 130 Springsteen concerts; but despite repeated requests, Springsteen refuses to meet with him.
by Lynchpin on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:49 am
Hmmm no stream of tweets from Latika of Swan Press conference.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:51 am
Peter Fizsimons has a couple of Olympic stories every Australian athlete should read. They would not dare whinge about anything ever again. Difficult training conditions,bad preparation ? This guy is what a sports hero really look like.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/olympics/athletics-london-2012/afghan-runner-carries-true-spirit-of-the-games-with-her-20120802-23i6d.html#ixzz22RJp0sSt
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:52 am
guytaur
Let’s see how long it takes Latika to tweet Swan’s presser
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:53 am
I heard today that the National Party put a motion to the joint party room on Foreign Investment, thankfully defeated, which would have mandated all foreign parties wishing to invest in Australia had to join the ASX!!!
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:53 am
Middle man, my mobile, like my email, is Address book/ contact list only. I don’t know anyone who doesn’t have that type of restriction, esp since replying costs them money & invites more unwanted intrusion.
I still have a Do-not-call registered landline for elderly family & friends, though it’s going when I have that landline switched off when the NBN is turned on (most now have iPads, thanks to kids & grandkids etc). Howard caved in & exempted polling companies etc. If they call, they get an earful before NO (though they usually don’t last that long)!
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:55 am
OPT
Re Statute of Limitations
I think there is no Statute of Limitations if the “crime” in an indictable offence.
Wouldn’t misappropriation of funds (especially the amount alleged to be involved) be considered such?
by kezza2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:55 am
c@tmomma
I am amazed that the sensible Liberals are not fed up with the likes of Barnaby and the Nationals
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:55 am
@Clarke_Melissa: Wayne Swan says Coalition’s foreign investment discussion paper is “a dog’s breakfast” & “dangerous stuff” @ABCNews24
This seems to be takeout from Swan Presser by ABC no comments so far on NDIS comments just responses to Journo questions.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:57 am