Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
@Clarke_Melissa: But Wayne Swan supports looking at establishing a land-ownership register to track foreign investment. @ABCNews24
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:57 am
I can’t remember who it was that asked about Matt Adamson. I spoke to my Dad. Said he was an ok worker, nothing flash and a pretty good bloke but was stunned he was even remotely interested in politics.
by Space Kidette on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:58 am
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 10:58 am
“@mariekehardy: Kerry O’Brien in conversation with Bob Brown at Byron Bay Writers’ Fest. A Bieber-esque fervour permeates the crowd.”
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:00 am
@guytaur: @abcmarkscott Your Journos tweet Abbott press conferences like a media release. Swan presser just on only responses to journo questions.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:02 am
poroti @ 4843,
Thank you for the reminder: that is what sporting spirit (indeed, any spirit) is all about.
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:03 am
Fitzsimmons is always a fountain of great sporting stories, and that one is fantastic.
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:04 am
This is pretty much my area of expertise.
You can’t go for WH listing without the support of the state these days.
Also, as nice as the Alps are they wouldn’t cut muster on a World Heritage List. Wouldn’t get close.
The Alps have some nice things. Some recently evolved flora (~5Mya), no really old lineages. It is one of about 20 centres of plant endemism in Oz. A small amount of unique fauna, mountain pygmy possum and the two corroborree frogs and one of a handful of populations of the broad-toothed rat (but that doesnt make it stand out even in Oz).
Perhaps you could add a bit for the aboriginal heritage and the bogong moth.
But overall it aint WH and the fed officials know it.
The only way it could happen could be if the WH conference was held in Oz and the politics went Oz’s way like it did with the Blue Mountains nomination that was also pretty borderline.
(PS The broad-toothed rat is pretty cute, it is sort of Oz’s version of a guinea pig).
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:04 am
victoria @ 1848
And who might they be?
by bemused on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:05 am
OPT. can i restrict calls to my mob to only those in my contacts list????
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:05 am
Picture of a broad toothed rat
http://adoreanimals.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Broad-toothed-Rat.jpg
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:06 am
Dumbo media asks Swan about New Jersey Governor’s criticism of Springsteen usage. Swanny says wtte “the guys’ a Republican Tea Party stooge”
Check out what he is doing to teachers in NJ:
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/08/njea_says_gov_christie_is_misl.html
A taste of what the Tea Party agenda will mean when Abbott follow Cam Newman in implementing here
by sprocket_ on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:07 am
guytaur
It mightn’t be quite so permeating if the crowd actually understood that Mr Brown is trying to close Olympic Dam Mine, stop any new coal mines, destroy $300 billion worth of value in the uranium industry, introduce hundreds of areas of new regulation, leave Australia defenceless, kill off all intensive live production industries with big increases in COL, kill off the live animal trade industry… and all without any compensation
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:08 am
Re Gov Chris Christie (R) NJ. Someone right up there with our own
and much more at the article. Another RW nasty piece of sh..
http://www.nj.com/times-opinion/index.ssf/2012/07/opinion_nj_gov_chris_christies_2.html
by hugh moran on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:10 am
bg
Snap!
I was just looking at that Broad-toothed Rat image and thinking, ‘Looks good to eat.’
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:10 am
victoria,
You mean ‘Australia’s best retail politician’?
I’m just hoping that voters decide to leave him and his deranged populist blather on the shelf come the next election.
Actually, I was just watching a clip on HuffPo on Gov Jennifer Granholm speaking about the Tea Party victory in Texas, and she made a perfectly valid point which resonates here in Oz, and as the Coalition goes down the same Hickery Holler path here, that the Democratic/ Progressive/Labor Party must seize the opportunity to sweep up the support of sensible middle ground voters who are quietly horrified at the sight of the party of the Right going so far Right now they are in danger of falling off the edge of the flat earth their beliefs parallel. These people used to support, in Australia at least, the small ‘l’ Liberals. Who, from the other side of the coin, are also being forced out of their own party.
They could go to The Greens, they could go to a ‘sensible’ political party like Labor, or they could stay where they are and betray their beliefs.
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:10 am
fiona
Three cheers also for Tahmina Kohistani, Afghanistan’s first female sprinter who is running today. Olympic ideals ? Baser Wasiqi had the reight idea……
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
SK
That was me asking about Adamson. I don’t think he’s the same Adamson the Libs were thinking of putting up, it just seems so unlikely. They usually go for local business types when they bother to run at all. The poll interviewer said the Libs had not yet decided if they would run, I think they are just tossing names around.
by leone on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:11 am
Did the Afghan marathon man get $600 million worth of support for his effort?
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:13 am
The Coalition will always have tensions between rural socialists and city Dries. Mr Joyce’s task is to stitch up the National vote. Which he does wonderfully well.
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:14 am
regarding the ‘leaked’ polling… which i put in the same class as ‘trickle down economics’… at least it would put to rest the conundrum of what to do with Kevin. lol. but the thought of a Lib local member is not nice…
by middle man on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:14 am
this was apparently snapped in the Shire
https://twitter.com/OzFacts/status/231195750330167296/photo/1
by sprocket_ on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:14 am
leone,
Dad said he couldn’t imagine him as a pollie. Maybe that’s why!
by Space Kidette on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:16 am
Space Kiddette@4851,
The string pullers in the LNP and Coalition want ‘salt-of-the-earth’, airhead footy types that will titillate the electorate into voting for the bastards. I’d call it ‘The Ray Hadley Paradigm’.
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:16 am
Adding to his CV in preparation for Abbott’s 2013 win and his own reappointment?
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:16 am
What is Mr Morrison going to say to the press about this?
@AnyoneButAbbott: Why is Australian productivity so low? We’re propping up the table #auspol http://t.co/k1Zr2ByY
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
sprocket
Nice……
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:17 am
This from New Matilda’s Ben Eltham yesterday (sorry if already posted)
FEDERAL POLITICS 2 Aug 2012
Swan Is On The Money
By Ben Eltham
by kezza2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:18 am
bluegreen
Oh, so that was ANOTHER promise from the Howard government that they had no intention on delivering?
by zoomster on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:18 am
guytaur
Latika is currently tweeting to her heart’s content, comments by Truss and Abbott
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:20 am
That shuffling sound you hear is the sound of the Qld White Shoe Brigade taking up their position at the starting line.
Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/payperview-politics-may-expand-20120802-23hw7.html#ixzz22RQsbXme
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:22 am
Zoomster
All the WH boffins who work for the Fed govt know that an alpine WH nomination wouldn’t get up.
It would take some Rudd-esque global environmental political wheeling and dealing.
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:24 am
sprocket,
Re that Twitpic. So Tony Abbott lies, which he openly admits he tells every day, are fine, but a misrepresentation of the whole situation surrounding the PM’s deal with The Greens over putting a price on carbon pollution via a fixed price leading to a floating price, is not?
That stuff is just propaganda, pure and simple.
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:24 am
And Latika was simply retweeting the comments of others on Swan’s presser. So it seems that Their ABC thinks it it more important to parrot the brainfarts that are Coalition pressers than to report on what ministers of the government have to say.
by leone on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
More from the Ben Eltham article – and, oops, here’s the link:
http://newmatilda.com/2012/08/02/swan-money
by kezza2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
@TheKouk: ASX down 0.9%; AUD still firm at 1.0460; bond yields 10 bps lower… Big night – US jobs; next week RBA, inflation, our jobs data +++
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:25 am
Boerwar
I think you’d really like this piece given your interest in kangaroo harvesting
Its the mose commented and viewed piece in the history of “the conversation”
http://theconversation.edu.au/ordering-the-vegetarian-meal-theres-more-animal-blood-on-your-hands-4659/
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:26 am
bg
I have that conversation with every vegetarian I meet. They are usually non-plussed. It is yet another symptom of the great inner city-environment divide. They just don’t get it.
It is like the cruel bastards who think the best thing for Grey Kangaroos is to allow them to starve to death.
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:34 am
thanks for that article, bluegreen.
I have similar arguments with people who are vegetarians (for animal suffering reasons) yet continue to consume dairy products.
To my mind, a beef cow leads a much better and happier life than a dairy cow…and there’s not much difference in the way that life ends, either.
by zoomster on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:36 am
c@atmomma,
I know that local boys made good are pretty popular and easy to sell to the electorate. Could be just a way to bleed votes from incumbent.
by Space Kidette on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:38 am
And every other animal and plant that suffers as a consequence of the overgrazing.
This is the one copyblot on Ken Henry’s record IMHO.
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:43 am
Cheers Zoomster
I have found that one of the biggest enemies of the conservationist is the animal welfare advocate.
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:44 am
For the food debate if not shown already
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2182897/The-day-I-killed-supper-Its-new-ethical-food-fad-But-Tom-Mitchelson-Bambis-crosshairs-appetite-suddenly-disappear.html
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:45 am
@watermelon_man: Hard to think of the ABC these days as anything but the television arm of News Ltd, IPA, and Menzies House. Well, not hard, impossible.
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:46 am
I agree with whoeverr recently argued the ALP should go in hard and nagative on Abbott and the LNP. Now he’s openly signalling job losses in health and education: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/abbott-plans-cuts-in-health-defence-and-education-jobs-20120309-1upqn.html
Do people want this? No they dont. Show a bit of grunt, ALP. get out there and terrify the punters – frankly, they should be scared.
by lefty e on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:48 am
SK
Thats the aim – anything that will get rid of Oakeshott.
Splitting the Nats vote doesn’t seem good strategy to me, but then I’m not blessed with the lofty intellect and superior tactical skills required to be a Fiberal candidate selector, so what would I know.
The Nats will throw a few squillion dollars into their anti-Oakeshott campaign. It will all be filth, lies and photos of Rob sneezing, as usual, and as usual the barely literate mobs who make up the majority of their voters will fall for it.
by leone on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:48 am
MM @ 4856
And here’s one featuring my good self playing “fellow with a guitar”:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2003/02/14/1044927805183.html
(Yes, yes, technically speaking, this is not a fantastic nor even a great story)
by Narns on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:49 am
by victoria on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:53 am
@endacurran: Surprised this isn’t trending in Australia. BHP’s CEO Kloppers declines annual bonus as resources boom loses momentum. #bears
by guytaur on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:56 am
Gawd, that will be like Barry Jones taking on Stan Laurel (with apologies to Stan Laurel).
by Lynchpin on Aug 3, 2012 at 11:57 am