Nielsen: 56-44 to Coalition
GhostWhoVotes reports another 56-44 federal opinion poll, this time from Nielsen, which at least has Labor improving from 58-42 at its poll a month ago. The primary votes are 30% for Labor (up two), 47% for the Coalition (down one) and 12% for the Greens (steady). Tony Abbott has slightly increased his lead over Julia Gillard as preferred prime minister, up from 46-42 to 48-43. A question on carbon price compensation has 5% rating themselves better off and 38% worse off, with 52% opting for no change. Bad as that may seem superficially, it contains the germ of a good headline for the government, as Nielsen’s poll conducted immediately before the introduction of the scheme had 51% expecting to be worse off and 37% expecting no difference. The 5% better off figure is unchanged. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.
UPDATE: Essential Research has Labor recovering a point on two-party preferred for the second week running, now trailing 55-45, although primary votes are unchanged: Labor on 33%, the Coalition on 49% and the Greens on 10%. Also featured are rank ordering of most important election issues (political leadership up seven points since December to 25%, while controlling interest rates has steadily declined from 15% to 9% since the start of 2010), productivity (Australian workers generally seen as “quite productive”), industrial relations (believed on balance to slightly favour workers over employers), the Gonski report recommendations (65% support, 14% oppose), and respondents’ experiences of workplace bullying.
UPDATE 2: Nielsen further finds 52% backing a leadership change from Julia Gillard to Kevin Rudd against 42% opposed, and Kevin Rudd leading Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister 57-36.
House preselection news:
Fisher (Qld, LNP 4.1%): Howard government minister and former Longman MP Mal Brough had a clear win in yesterday’s long-awaited LNP preselection ballot, scoring the support of more than half of the 350 preselectors in the first round. According to Michael McKenna of The Australian, Brough’s much-touted rival James McGrath, who went into the vote with endorsement from Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, came third behind local employment agency director Peta Simpson. The also-rans were Richard Bruinsma, Andrew Wallace, Graeme Mickelberg, Daniel Purdie and Stephen Ainscough.
Lilley (Qld, Labor 3.2%): As anticipated, the LNP has preselected Rod McGarvie to run against Wayne Swan. McGarvie is a former soldier and United Nations peacekeeper, and was also the candidate in 2010. Also in the field were John Cotter, Bill Gollan and Karryn Fletcher
Scullin (Vic, Labor 20.6%): Twenty-six years after he succeeded his father Harry Jenkins Sr as member, Harry Jenkins Jr has announced he will not contest the next election. Andrew Crook of Crikey reports that Andrew Giles, a Slater & Gordon lawyer, former adviser to state MPs Gavin Jennings and Lily D’Ambrosio and factional secretary of the Socialist Left, is his likely successor as Labor candidate.
Denison (Tas, Independent 1.2% versus Labor): The Greens have preselected Anne Reynolds, an adviser to Christine Milne, to run against Andrew Wilkie.
Senate preselection news:
• Labor’s member for the state seat of Bassendean, Martin Whitely, has announced he will seek preselection for the WA Labor Senate ticket in a pre-emptive bid to thwart the presumed designs of Joe Bullock, powerful state secretary of the Right faction Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union. At this stage Bullock will merely say that he is “interested” in running, and that Whitely – whose decision not to re-contest his state seat was seen to reflect the certainty that LHMWU state secretary Dave Kelly would defeat him for preselection – would get “zero” votes if he nominated. The two Labor Senators up for re-election are noted Kevin Rudd backer Mark Bishop, another former SDA secretary who would presumably be making way for Bullock, and Louise Pratt of the Left. Labor is thought to be doing so badly in WA that it is at risk of winning only one Senate seat at the next election.
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Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I remember after the 1996 federal election having the same difficulties finding anyone who would admit to voting for Howard’s coalition.
Newman’s govt is doing what first term governments with huge majorities normally do: the unpopular, ideological, polarising stuff in their first year. BOF is doing the same, although BOF has far greater substance than Newman, and in addition has an extra year of his govt’s term up his sleeve.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:14 pm
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/08/03/allegations-30-courthouses-close/
Does Newman not understand why One Nation really formed and why Keating got the boot so hard?
Its because Queenslanders are the least resilient at dealing with rapid economic change. The whole place is one series of small regional centres, so if he thinks he can rationalise service delivery for everything across the state, the Nats part of the LNP will string him up in weeks.
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:15 pm
I love this line in the above article
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:16 pm
The pie will be hot if I put it in the microwave. Like Julia Gillard.
by zoomster on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Smaug
Thoroughly enjoyed your “rant” as it is very true and just laying down what is happening in this State. Newman is such an arrogant bastard, doesn’t give a stuff about peoples’ feelings – never mind the thousands thrown out of work being home owners with kids etc – and he’ll keep doing it as he knows he has no Opposition (reduced to 7) who can make any headway at the moment.
His day of reckoning will come.
by feeney on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Smaug
Please do something with your rant
Try getting in the public arena somehow some where
Plesse , i must see the light of day, somehow
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:22 pm
It’s the Military Man writ large: if you see a city, raze it.
If you see someone who might be an enemy, shoot first, ask questions later.
Get out the flamethrowers, and burn.
Destroy the state in order to save it.
There’ll always be someone who thinks you’re doing a fine thing.
Until you do it to them.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
It’s a very decentralised system, ironically one of the reasons (I think) Newman gave for opposing an NDIS trial. He said it would substantially add to the costs of the trial, or wtte of.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:23 pm
When i lived in qld u had years of joe lib
We had had years of eric reece lab.
I ve worked out now why it seemed different
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:24 pm
e , i must see/ IT
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Personally, not living in QueensIand, I hope Campbell remains LNP leader at least until the next Federal Election.
And then for two years more to teach the poxy ignoramous voters who infest that state a lesson they won’t forget.
“Queensland, the Mendicant State”.
How long before we see that on their licence plates?
by Fulvio Sammut on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:27 pm
A headline you rarely see in relation to the Coalition at the ABC:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-03/government-ridicules-roads-funding-pledge/4175314
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
For those interested in Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) / Genetically Engineered Foods:
GMO Myths and Truths: An evidence-based examination of the claims made for the safety and efficacy of genetically modified crops. Version 1.3 by
Michael Antoniou, Claire Robinson & John Fagan. June 2012.
http://earthopensource.org/files/pdfs/GMO_Myths_and_Truths/GMO_Myths_and_Truths_1.3.pdf
TrueFood Network: http://www.truefood.org.au/
by Pegasus on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:31 pm
What he doesnt get if u sake people thy dont spend.
The the oned u dont sake are too scared to spend
the ones u sack up in hospital waiting rooms costing gov. Taxes stress,
This what our premier tried explaing when the lubersls here said our budget was not tough.
Ofcourse they dont get the economics. ‘
And we are just number s
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Smaug
5189
Oustanding post. I fully agree. A highly valuable and sustainable indigenous project which was fully approved and funded has been pulled by the runt. It has cost me a few weeks of work for no return but for the indigenous people it would have been a sustainable and perpetual employment and business opportunity. All gone to the sh&thouse
by paddy2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Honestly, Abbott is full of shyte!
by BK on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Snowflake. Hell.
by This little black duck on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Plus it does not mention
Our 4 lane hiway from one end to other also promised
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:35 pm
BG Yes I believe it is
by canasta76 on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Tas boy now on track oly
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Um, er.
The Minerals Resource Rent Tax is not the carbon tax.
by zoomster on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm
Someone was asking about retaining indigenous languages the other day, but can’t remember who it was.
In the local paper today there was an article about the local public schools running a project in concert with elders about teaching indigenous languages to students. I meant to photocopy the article and bring it home, but forgot.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:37 pm
4th excellent
Old school boy of ours
by my say on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Yes, I’ve noticed that the opposition have been coy about attributing stuff to the MRRT, presumably because it means another revenue stream they’ve promised to abolish, yet don’t have the words to fashion a populist, plausible explanation for where alternate funds would be sourced.
It’s easier to just blame the carbon scheme.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Smaug! Super-great rant, mate! Keep it up.
I’m sure this, like Borbidge’s first few months, is Newman’s nice phase; eg in Borbidge’s case, before he and the NFF got into bed together to screw the Wharfies (both the labour laws Howard adopted & Libs alliance with NFF started with Borbidge in Q). I think newman’s already ahead of Brobidge’s timetable on Jobs-for-the-Mates and PS sackings. Next for Workchoices, Qld-style for sure.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rob_Borbidge#Premiership
ABC April 3http://www.takver.com/wharfie/who.htm#nff
As George Santayana famously put it, Those who forget the lessons of history are fated to repeat them.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:42 pm
Smaug @ 5189
Hahahaha… I was smarter than you!
I bristled at the bs and propaganda that was fed to us in the RAAF and responded by joining the ALP.
Also liked to leave a copy of Mao’s ‘Little Red Book’ where it would be noticed during inspections.
Must get my ASIO file one of these days. It should be fun reading it.
by bemused on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Looks like gold, hope a record
by Schnappi on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:48 pm
oops a heat
by Schnappi on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:48 pm
Smaug @ 5189,
Top post! Echidna stamp with bar.
Paddy2 @ 5214,
Well, it is obvious what Mr Newman thinks of the first Australians. Along with all the others whom he holds of no account.
Confessions @ 5200,
I am ashamed to admit that I voted for Howard in 1996, but remorse well and truly set in by late May 1997
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:49 pm
my say
What event ?
by poroti on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:50 pm
Fiona,
It really saddens me about this project as my cost is little but for the indigenous Qu#ndam%$ka people the cost and opportunity is enormous.
Btw i voted for our local ALP member not the ex copper/minister Ruthenbeger
by paddy2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Paddy2
Take it to the local MP.
Make them feel some pain as newby backbenchers.
by bluegreen on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Thnks Bluegeen,
I am not a violent person but as I drove past the clown day after day and my urge was to swerve and hit the the tiresome pr%ck
by paddy2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:00 pm
fiona:
You are the first person I’ve seen openly admit to having voted for Howard!
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:00 pm
>Can we have source with that?
Only if you are in one of them high class Melbairn pie shops.
by Albert Ross on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:01 pm
fess,
I’ve never had any difficulty admitting that I’m wrong … perhaps because I so rarely am
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:02 pm
Paddy2,
Oh dear, so near and yet so honourable!
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Mr Newman
(1) Suck up to the rich.
(2) Screw the ordinary person.
(3) Stick it to the unfortunate.
(4) Root the environment.
(5) Suck up to horses.
(6) Give the arse to the yarts.
by Boerwar on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:05 pm
fiona
I give you free use of my latest favorite saying:
“I admit it – you’re wrong.”
by zoomster on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Personally, had I been Shorten and supposed that the proprietor of a pie shop had said that Julia Gillard was soft like a microwaved pie I’d have thought she was having a go and after saying “excuse me?” and verifying that this was what she’d said either
a) asked what that was based on
OR
b) responded “uh huh …” taken my pie and walked out.
It was pretty naive of him to allow himself to be baited
by Fran Barlow on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Fiona,
Suitable omment in so many ways.
We look forward to using the instruments of native title to progress the program in the future.
by paddy2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:09 pm
Says it all about the media in our country.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Omment = comment
by paddy2 on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:10 pm
fiona:
You and I are very alike on that front.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:11 pm
confessions,
Don’t quote me on this but I think it was bluegreen asking Rod Hagen. bluegreen’s around so can probably confirm.
Back to the Olympic Athletics competition. My favourite!
by C@tmomma on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:13 pm
It’s easier to focus on the trivial than it is the substantive, at least in the case of Australia’s media it would seem.
by confessions on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:13 pm
Could we have a restart and have a change of water ,we would get gold instead of silver , im sure if they changed that water the brits have soiled with their 4 year practice on it,
by Schnappi on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:17 pm
James Brayshaw’s calls of the rowing are simply incompetent. He has no idea of the margins and ability to get up when it comes to Aussie competitors..
by BK on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Schnappi/BK,
Which event are we up to? I don’t have TV or digital radio, and the Melbourne station is broadcasting AFL.
by fiona on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:20 pm
fiona
We just got a silver in the women’s pairs in rowing.
by BK on Aug 3, 2012 at 9:22 pm