Northern Territory election: August 25
With polling day three-and-a-half weeks away, my seat-by-seat guide to the Northern Territory election is almost ready for action, and will be posted after a bit more proof reading leading today (UPDATE: Make that tomorrow) (UPDATE 2: No, make it Monday). Local legal academic and former Labor MP Ken Parish relates the campaign has been off to a somnolent start, with both sides keeping their powder dry until the final fortnight after the Olympics are finished.
The only published polling one ever sees for the Northern Territory comes from Newspoll on the eve of the election, so for outside observers particularly the situation is not easy to read. But with a Labor government seeking a fourth term in a traditionally conservative polity after 11 years in office, and the examples of New South Wales and Queensland etched firmly in mind, the auguries seem to indicate that Labor is headed for an almightly shellacking. So it comes as a surprise to see Sportingbet taking bets on all 25 seats individually, and offering the CLP as clear favourites in only 12 of them.
Echoes of uncertainty have also been heard from the CLP camp itself. Last week the Northern Territory News reported on a confidential party document which warned its lack of policy development might cause voters to “stick with the devil they know”. Last year the paper reported that internal polling showed the party going backwards, putting it at risk of losing Port Darwin without making compensating gains. While the provenance of internal polling is always open to dispute, it is easy enough to believe the report’s claim that Paul Henderson was shown to be “comfortably the preferred Chief Minister” in comparison with the CLP’s uninspiring Terry Mills. One wonders how Mills’s leadership might have played out if he were subjected to the steady drumbeat of polling that federal and state leaders have to endure.
As it stands, Mills had little trouble seeing off a challenge in August 2010 from David Tollner, who held the federal seat of Solomon from 2001 to 2007 before entering Territory politics in 2008. Tollner only secured two votes in the party room against eight for Mills, but he is believed to have won over another two supporters since. He also returned to the front bench after a year of penance in the wake of the leadership challenge, with yet more alleged internal polling suggesting he was the most popular member on either side of parliament.
On the other side of the coin, Paul Henderson appears to have kept internal predators at bay through a difficult period of minority government, and things seem to have been eerily quiet on the scandal front. Ken Parish also makes the interesting observation that the government has been able to “keep politics off the front page” by fiendishly exploiting the Northern Territory News’s notorious obsession with crocodiles. He also suggests Labor may be coming off an artificially low base from the 2008 election result, which had a lot to do with Henderson’s poorly received decision to call the election a year ahead of time.
For all that though, my money is firmly on the CLP. Labor has been handicapped by the effective loss of the remote seat of Namatjira (formerly Macdonnell) with Alison Anderson’s defection to the CLP, so the starting point is 12-12-1 rather than the 13-11-1 recorded at the 2008 election. Independent Gerry Wood presumably had stability in mind when he announced mid-term that he would back Labor to remain in government, and if re-elected would be open to negotiation (though he would have to look past the fact that he accuses CLP members of being behind blackmail and physical threats against him).
It would only take one extra seat for the CLP to go one better, and a number of Labor’s look hard to defend. Fannie Bay (0.9%) and Daly (5.8%) are challenging by dint of margin alone, and the latter has shown a tendency to be volatile. Candidate factors are of paramount importance in the Northern Territory’s bite-sized electorates, so the retirements of Chris Burns in Johnston (margin 6.9%) and Jane Aagaard in Nightcliff (10.7%) make life a lot tougher there than the margins indicate. Conversely, the CLP should enjoy considerable sophomore surges in seats where Labor could realistically hope to make countervailing gains (although the same can be said for Labor first-termer Michael Gunner in Fannie Bay).
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Categories: NT Politics
Thanks for this thread, William. As a non-NTian, I get virtually zero exposure to NT politics, even when digging for it and, indeed, even this close to their election.
While this is a federal political question and probably more appropriate in the other thread (not inviting a federal political debate), do you think it will be likely that commentators will use this election as a “test” for Gillard’s leadership, or have they learned their lesson from the Melbourne state by-election, not to treat a result as inevitable and base their rhetorical narrative around it?
Nevertheless, I look forward to any information and discussion on this very small and quiet election.
by Carey Moore on Aug 2, 2012 at 9:03 am
Here’s a policy the NT govt is launching, not sure what impact this would have in the election…
http://www.ntnews.com.au/article/2012/08/01/312461_ntnews.html
There are two more Ken Parrish Club Troppo articles (apart from the one already linked above) worth reviewing on NT politics
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/07/25/stopping-debt-and-deficit-in-the-territory/
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/07/22/nt-political-campaigning-under-the-radar/
The July 22 one on campaigning is especially worth reviewing, great background.
by Leroy on Aug 2, 2012 at 9:28 am
BB
Spot on about the role of the media and PR spinning up the inevitability of the Olymians success.
I have some advice for Magnussen, some of which I have stated before.
1) The media is not your friend. They are wolves in sheep’s clothing
2) Try using the personal pronoun “I” a little less frequently
3) Swim to 81% of your capacity (the 80% you said would suffice was not quite enough)
4) At least once in follow up interviews, mention the victor
5) Recognise that in all competitions there are winners and losers. Accept this or take up knitting.
My last bit of advice is probly unfair. Kids’ pathologically extreme competitive sprit doesn’t develop through osmosis. In his background are 2 people of great influence to him who have nurtured his development for 20 years. What role have they played?
We have all seen the extremes of you-must-win-at-all-costs weirdo parents over the years in those Yank interviews of beauty pageant child abusers …… the ones who dress their 3 year olds in sexy gear and make up, and train them to pose provocatively, so they will win.
They are the blatant examples.
But there are more subtle forms of this. Parents who fail to whisper in their competing, hard training kid’s ear day after day “but in the end you can only do your best and that’s the important thing; doing your best is what makes us proud of you” are no different to the beauty pageant mums. Sadly, those who don’t whisper such caveat words invariably shout “win, win, win” at every opportunity, both in words and body language.
In the lead up to the final the commentators spoke of Magnussen’s relatively recent take up of swimming as his sport. He had been devasted !!!!!! by losing a football grand final when he was 17, and he (the parents????) decided that an individual (rather than team) sport would be in his best interests. By implication, it was evidently the other members of the team who caused the grand final loss.
To conclude, it was nauseating to hear Sutcliffe and Warren spruiking up Magnussen’s certain win right up till the “go” buzzer.
James Magnussen, if you tried your best and I think you did, very well done. But do not forget the media is not your friend!
by psyclaw on Aug 2, 2012 at 9:55 am
Speaking for myself and what my feeling is; it will be close, very very close, I think the CLP will most likely win, albeit with a small majority and possibly will need to deal for a minority government position. Independents is the big uncertainty, your story has little to say about this, otherwise good story.
The general feeling on the committment to funding of outstations, is positive, but the context is bigger than what you have written. Consider the amount of Federal funding that is now tied to measurable outcomes, the recent changes to Shire councils and the move to ‘growth towns’.
BTW I live here in Darwin, I have been here in the NT for going on 18 years, another year or 3 and I could almost be considered a local.
by Xevram2 on Aug 2, 2012 at 10:39 am
Couple of things to keep in mind in NT elections. It is usually won in the northern suburbs. Aboriginal voters vote overwhelmingly ALP but that is shakier this time around following high profile defections like Mario and Anderson. Defence and its families play a big role and are scattered across several electorates. The more military, the more CLP votes. And turnover is enormous. In no other place in Australia are so many of the voters first time voters in that electorate. It makes looking at past results less useful than you’d think.
by SBH on Aug 2, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Who is standing against Anderson? Don’t underestimate the political sophistication of voters in such seats. I’ve seen the ALP beat popular CLP Indigenous candidates in both Stuart & McDonnell in the past, simply on the basis of superior policy on Aboriginal matters.
Mmm. The real trouble is that since “Stronger Futures” passage and earlier decisions wrt to education language policies, etc etc etc by the NT Labor government, “superior policy on Aboriginal matters” is no longer something Labor can really shout about. Still, the hatred of Brough’s even cruder Intervention, and long standing, very well justified, suspicion about the CLP in such areas, might still count in these electorates.
by Rod Hagen on Aug 2, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Territory politics can be very weird, and often has little relationship to national or even other “northern Australian” politics. When I first lived there the entire “opposition” to the then rampant CLP was a single independent, Dawn Laurie. Not a single Labor member in sight.
Improved for Labor in 1977. When missionaries stopped filling out the votes for Aboriginal people on one mission I worked on as a scrutineer in the 1975 Fed election, Labor recorded a swing of over 90% at that booth! Funny that! Amazing what knowing who your vote is actually being cast for can do in an election!
The change stuck in the 77 Territory election and Labor actually won a handful of seats.
Labor only finally won govt there when Howard was at his peak federally though, in 2001. ALP repeated the dose in 2005, not long after Howard’s huge 2004 victory!
Lord knows what they will make of the current situation. No guarantee at all that they’ll “go with the flow” in other parts of Aus, though!
by Rod Hagen on Aug 2, 2012 at 6:14 pm
I agree that NT politics and elections don’t tend to follow normal patterns, but I think this election will be a little different. We’ll have the same forces of hatred of Ju lia and ignorance fed by the media that will probably play a much stronger role than previously. The NT News hasn’t been as rabidly pro CLP so far, in my opinion, but the Fed politics are subject to the usual Murdoch lies and misinformation.
The Northern suburbs have increased their population of military families too, which could take votes away from Labour.
Gerry Woods is pretty safe. He’s made a few enemies, but he still seems to have good support from the rural population.
I think Labor will hold on, but it will be close. The ALP has achieved so much but they get very little acknowledgment for it. But Terry Mills, the opp. leader, doesn’t seem to have a really strong following.
Another important factor that makes out difficult to pacify along party lines its the small electorates, where the personal vote is very strong.
by IMOHO on Aug 3, 2012 at 12:02 am
“Another important factor that makes it difficult to pacify along party lines its the small electorates, where the personal vote is very strong.”
Absolutley agree with that.
ABC news last night (02/08), we hear for the first time Dave Tollner’s plan (CLP), for the re-development of Bagot community; why, well obviously because the lease on Bagot is a ‘special circumstances’ one; the govt has the ability to change that, so the current inhabitants will be forced to buy and or rent their own homes. Does this prospect appeal to the Bagot community leaders and residents, of course not, but hey Dave don’t worry about consulting with them, dont worry about informing them first, lets just ‘impose’ this on them. Got to admire the consistency with that. What makes it even more crazy is the fact that almost across the road is a large area of RAAF housing, a lot of it empty. I seem to remember previous committments to making this housing available to community for rent or buy, is that area also not under a ‘special circumstances’ lease arrangement. Housing availability, purchase costs, rent costs, these are all major issues up here.
by Xevram on Aug 3, 2012 at 8:44 am
Here is a bit of number crunching for the NT election.
http://poliquant.com/northern-territory-election-incumbency-effects-and-pent-up-swings/
by Poliquant on Aug 3, 2012 at 3:40 pm
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/nt-poll-a-judgment-on-intervention-from-the-people-most-affected-20120804-23mf0.html
more in the article
by Leroy on Aug 5, 2012 at 9:39 am
Tonight the LNP outdid their Southern cousins! The Academy Award goes to Opposition Leader Mills and his “ex-policeman” offsider, Elferink. They were outside with the tv cameras all running, to tell us how bad our crime rate is and how they’re gonna fix it (In fact I think I saw where they’ve guaranteed to reduce it by 10%), when some nasty little blighter happened to come up behind Elferink and “kick” him in the back of his knee!
Well, Elferink, being an ex-cop, immediately tried to make a ‘citizen’s arrest’, holding the guy’s hand up behind his back. But wait there’s more! Another one or two nasties come along and have a go at Elferink.
And what did those useless Police do? Well they just drove on past, even when Mills and Elferink tried to hail them! And the bad guys ran away!
But the LNP will fix the Police too, and increase their numbers by…..lots!
I think they should probably reassess their security staff too, and maybe all those hangers on and camera men and interviewers might have to search their consciences about why they didn’t step in to help.
by IMOHO on Aug 5, 2012 at 10:26 pm
IMOHO 12
That kinda just helped their message.
“See, not even we’re safe with these cameras around. And you saw how weak the police were. It will be a priority of a Mills Government to immediately fix this problem by… etc.”
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 8:50 am
Sorry if this sound cynical, but after watching the CLP’s tactics for more than 30 years I wouldn’t put it past them to have staged that encounter.
If they didn’t, then I genuinely apologise to Mills and Elferink, and the CLP.
But I remain very sceptical at this point. It is just too convenient.
I mean, really, how likely is it that complete strangers will attack you, while you are being interviewed in public, in front of cameras, in broad daylight, and the policy you just happen to be promoting is all about Laura Norder, with an emphasis on drunken violence?
Hmm.
Never forget the CLP are the loins from whence that ruthless gutter-level propagandist Mark Textor was spawned and nurtured.
Incidentally, his Wikipedia page reads like a nauseatingly hagiographic job application, with not a critical word in sight. For example:
As a pioneer of values-based communication in Australasia , Mark’s insight into behavioural change has been sought by business and community leaders around the world. Mark has earned the recognition of some of Australia ‘s most respected commentators and academics for his work, which has also included counsel for some of the most significant investor and consumer communications campaigns in Australia.
Perhaps the best example of his ‘craft’ at work?
by Just Me on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:21 am
Carey and Just Me,
That’s precisely what I was trying to convey! An a very amateurish attempt it was, too!
They are obviously taking advice from Qld and others in the deep South – nothing new about that, except that this time it’s even more pronounced. I remember pre the Rudd election, every State’s newspapers and propaganda machines pushed the same issues as if it was unique to that state – ALP soft on crime, hospitals failing, schools bad. But since the advent of the “obnoxious” and lying Abbott free-speechers, the LNP have stooped to accusing the ALP Govt. of lying, corruption, manipulating figures, bullying public servants into reports that reflect well on Govt., etc. And yesterday’s farce was just a part of it.
I didn’t know Mark Textor was a Territorian – how upsetting!
by IMOHO on Aug 6, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Interesting how CM Henderson has been at pains to stress again and again the the NT election issues are separate to the Federal govt and that Territory elections will be decided on Territory issues. “No we dont want their help or support” Henderson says in a million different ways. Well wake up bloke, we are tied to the Fed by unbreakable strings of financial dependence. He is not fooling anyone.
The dissapointing thing is that neither major party is focussing on the ’causes’, of crime, of alcoholism, of lack of housing etc. etc.; honestly it is just more bandaids.
by Xevram on Aug 7, 2012 at 2:36 pm
William. After reading through what you have written. I seen nothing which informs me what the CLP acronym means! Edward James
by Edward James on Aug 7, 2012 at 3:03 pm
IMOHO
Fair enough.
I agree that Mills is showing signs of playing a dirty, a lá Abbott, in the campaign.
–––––
Xevram
“Well wake up bloke, we are tied to the Fed by unbreakable strings of financial dependence. He is not fooling anyone.”
Pretty sure Henderson is talking about political help or support from federal Labor during the NT campaign, not about the primary ongoing source of funds for the NT budget.
Pretty sure you know that.
–––––
EJ
CLP = Country Liberal Party. The NT’s home grown conservative amalgam.
by Just Me on Aug 7, 2012 at 7:31 pm
by Leroy on Aug 10, 2012 at 4:26 pm
http://tinyurl.com/9qjpgll (click google link)
by Leroy on Aug 11, 2012 at 11:19 am
Thanks for the Mackerras link, Leroy.
I am not seeing electoral baseball bats being dusted off for NT Labor. The main meat-and-potato issue is housing, and there are no easy answers for that one, regardless of who is in government.
The timing of the election is looking quite fortuitous for Labor, given the heat the conservatives, and Abbott himself, are increasingly feeling across the country right now.
So it probably wasn’t a good idea for Mills to have used personal appearances by Abbott in the NT campaign. I would have kept it strictly local.
by Just Me on Aug 11, 2012 at 1:31 pm
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2012/08/09/tracking-the-intersecting-nt-fear-campaigns/
by Leroy on Aug 12, 2012 at 12:40 pm
by Leroy on Aug 13, 2012 at 11:07 am