Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Oh dear, Pommies gloating:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/aug/04/london-2012-new-zealand-leading-australia
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Maybe Jeff Horn? Horn roars towards history.
Won’t make some PBers happy though, even if (?especially if) he does win gold:
Born in Briz. Still lives in Briz.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:03 pm
shellbell,
1984. Seven on water.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_at_the_1984_Summer_Olympics
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:03 pm
DTT
Agree entirely the people who could really benefit from an OPD and outreach service are the indigenous but in Townsville, at least, they are squeezed out by people who could well afford to pay something for treatment. Remember there is no means test for OPD.
Bemused
The difference happened in the 1920s. The Qld hospitals were nationalised and free care was given to all without a means test. If you wanted private care you were not allowed into a public hospital and went to a private hospital, which were actually well developed and still are throughout Queensland.
In NSW the public hospitals were run as charities with the government giving yearly grants and gradually taking over and building new hospitals from the 40s onwards BUT free treatment in the hospital was limited by a means test – doctors gave their services free to those who were under the means test. Their pay back was that they could charge anyone above the means test. Most of the lower middle class were insured through the lodge system which doctors hated but was cheap and worked well. Private hospitals in NSW did not develop nearly as well as in Qld but the public hospitals were far superior because they had an income stream from private patients.
Qld was the last to join Medibank in 1974 not just because Joh was being bloody minded but because the new system did not seem much different from what already existed. Unfortunately the continued underfunding of OPD and the strict separation of private and public has not led to good outcomes
by Oakeshott Country on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Cando is cost shifting to put the burden on the Feds the only trouble with this is that he has cut hospital funding as well .What an incompetent fool he is.
Cotes is another incompetent who has been in his job way too long and really needs a forced retirement.
by canasta76 on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:05 pm
We need a Coates hanger to put him in a cupboard somewhere.
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:07 pm
TLBD
Thanks
by shellbell on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Had to smile at this ….
Wendy Baker, 51, who normally lives in Leeds but is volunteering in Kiwi House during the Games said she wasn’t a fan of the rivalry between Australia and New Zealand, and didn’t get too upset when people mistook her for an Aussie. But she could see why they were taking being below their neighbours in the medal table rather badly. “In temperament they are a bit more like the Americans, while we’re a bit more like the British,” she said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/aug/04/london-2012-new-zealand-leading-australia
by Rossmore on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm
I would say Coates would be even less popular than Gillard or Abbott. The punters won’t fall for his “More, please” act.
Sending good money after bad so that athletes can increase their braggadocio and thus make more money from endorsements of products from bank home loans to hamburgers ain’t gonna cut it.
I am hoping that these Olympics will be the beginning of the Big Awakening, where Australians realize that spin does not automatically equal success and that “Nothing is written.”
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Good luck to Cando Newman, he can do anything he wants.
If he wants to cut spending on any area including health, he CAN and he’ll DO!
The LNP hold 82 seats to Labor 7 in QLD.
You get what you vote for and what you deserve.
Queensland voters – Grow a brain or ZIP…
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Shellbell
That would be L.A. .Equestrian,sailing,rowing and kayaking. Of special note NZ archer Neroli Fairhall was the first ever paraplegic to compete at the Olympics. She won gold at the Brissie Commonwealth Games.
by poroti on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Well, there was Mene, mene, tekel:
“God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to an end; you have been weighed on the scales and found wanting.”
Quite appropriate, I hope.
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:34 pm
And for the REALLY significant stuff happening tomorrow.
http://timeanddate.com/worldclock/fixedtime.html?msg=NASA+Curiosity+Mars+Rover+Landing&iso=20120805T2230&p1=137
Will be some very tense people at NASA and JPL at the moment. Screaming aero-brake maneuver, followed by parachute to slow it further, followed by rocket powered sky-crane lowering Curiosity to the ground by tethers. All done completely on automatis as there is a 14 minute time lag for signals. The payoff for all this being a BIG nuclear powered rover to do science with.
Much risk, but imagine the party if it all goes according to plan…………..
Bit like election 2013 could be here?
by imacca on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Rossmore
Channel 9 had the best effort. NZ briefly held 10th spot on the medal table and when Ch 9 put up the table that had been showing the top ten plus Australia’s position they only showed the top 9 . Went down well in NZ
by poroti on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Well, Mr Wells and Mr Welles did point out what happened last time we saw big puffs of dust from the red planet.
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Oakeshott Country @ 1103
Again, I thank you for a thoughtful and informative post.
Now we need some policy prescriptions to sort out all these discrepancies between states as far as reasonably can be achieved.
by bemused on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:37 pm
This could mean WOAR:
http://tvnz.co.nz/olympics-2012/aussie-broadcaster-wipes-nz-off-olympic-medal-table-5006115
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:39 pm
sorry already posted !!!
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Poroti only the Kiwis do irony as well as the Poms They’d have lapped up that Ch9 medal table…..
by Rossmore on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Who the F needs Martians. We have
and his Wabble set to lay waste to the country if people are stupid @ election 2013. 
by imacca on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:41 pm
imacca
And Australia .Australian observatories being in the same box seat they were during Neil Armstrong’s effort.Another Oi Oi Oi connection is that the mega sized Gale crater it is landing in is named after an Australian astronomer . The landing sequence sounds like they had a competition to find the craziest landin method.
by poroti on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:43 pm
NZ Reporter:
[“Just went over to Aussie TV pool to ask if they need to borrow a gold. Didn’t get a word out before they all yelled ‘we’re busy, can’t talk,’” ONE News reporter Garth Bray tweeted.}
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Catch you all later, gotta go out with SWMBO and do some shopping.
by bemused on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:44 pm
BK:
Oh yes … I missed that entirely. Nice catch.
Ta
by Fran Barlow on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:45 pm
WAYNEKER SWAN HAS LOST IT!
He says that “polls aren’t worth the paper they are written on”.
What about the polls used to get rid of Rudd as leader? Were they worthless too?
by ShowsOn on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Price rise is on its way. Just to be clear, Nothing to do with the carbon price.
http://instagram.com/p/N7heRrQJM1/
by victoria on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Fran
I’d never catch you on grammar – but maths is another thing.
by BK on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:47 pm
poroti,
I knew there was an Aussie connection to that Mars crater. But, I thought it was named after Megan Gale.
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:49 pm
If you wanted private care you were not allowed into a public hospital is NOT TRUE.
At least since the early 1950s, big Q public hospitals also catered for paying private (select your own doctors; have a private room) & semi-private (own doctors, 4-6 per ward; called “intermediate”) patients – I know, because my parents and I had (& I still have) medical insurance, but still preferred the public hospitals. The hospitals kept semi/private fees; which were ploughed back into research (in conjunction with UQ’s medical school, later also JCU) & equipment – in the postwar decades, esp into heart (from early-mid 50s), thoracic & transplant surgery (a world leader in kidney transplants in the late60s-early 70s), and cancer treatment (RBH, paired with Ann Arbour, was a world-first chemo-treatment centre) at which Briz hospitals excelled on an international scale.
This is still the case. When OH was admitted to TBH in Jan 2010 (for what would prove to be cancer), he was given the hospital’s private option; but he HATED private rooms with no company (to the stage where he drove nurses, drs & me mad pleading to go home early). With company, he was somewhat resigned … sort of.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Who said Canberra was useless:
Don’t answer that.
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:50 pm
It doesn’t surprise me that Coates has his grubby paws out for more money. He’s always whinging, like the sports welfare queen that he is. If we won gold in every event, he’d still be sooking.
by Carey Moore on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Shows
rinse and repeat: the polls weren’t why they got rid of Rudd.
by zoomster on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:51 pm
Fran @ 948 and Victoria @ 963,
Thank you both for your considered responses.
by fiona on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:54 pm
But but but
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Coates_%28sports_administrator%29
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:55 pm
swamprat
An article in the NZ Herald called for sympathy for Australia and Ch 9. The journo explained that the denial was just them going through the first stage of grief
by poroti on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:56 pm
poroti,
We’ll take one gold medal if they’ll take Tone. Hang on, forget about the medal!
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 12:58 pm
l( is doing this because he is in an unsailable position and he can – a lot of politicians will envy him. There will be a lot of pants wetting in places lime PB but in 3 years; 1. the level of breast cancer mortality in Qld will be the same as other states 2. The Qld budget will be better off and 3. No one will remember it at the election.)
but woman will
No wonder a lo t of hae lost faith in tbe medical profession.
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Our Liberal State Government at work in Victoria.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/government-issues-licences-to-kill-wombats-wallabies-kookaburras-swans-emus-and-parrots/comments-e6frf7kx-1226442916707
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Amazing what Mess with me at your peril Greg Combet as Minister and a few high-profile ACCC cases can do for business etc honesty!
I hear Nicola Roxon has a similar Don’t mess with me effect.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:04 pm
I just reckon sport is sending all the wrong messages to the people now when it used to send the right messages.
I mean, you just have to look at the industry that has grown around whitewashing violent thugs in sport, like Grant Hackett recently. Yet, after what he did to his wife, children and home, there he is in prime position poolside at the Olympics.
What sort of message does that send, huh? A totally shameless one which says you just have to brazen your way through it and out the other side, brushing the opprobrium off your Teflon suit.
I mean, women are just manbags and sows for the powerful, aren’t they?
Who should be taken to the abbatoir and put through the mincer once they have reached their use-by date. Or have been unable to produce any piglets for the sexist pigs.
Sigh. Do women really have to mobilise all over again? I guess so. Especially when there are women as well now working against what used to be considered a done and dusted subject of fairness and equality. In America it is being called, ‘The War On Women’. It is, of course, being waged by Conservative men.
‘Such is Life’ for the fairer sex I guess. As it always has been. A constant struggle against the most violent and overbearing of males.
A lot of Professional Sport, and sportsmen, and the camp followers who support and maintain the mythology which surrounds them are merely emblematic of this.
by C@tmomma on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:04 pm
canasta @ 1049
Newman is arrogant and a smart arse! There is no kinder way of describing him. Living with it is difficut.
I just don’t watch him, listen to him, or read about him.
All my info comes from this blog.
It’s my way of coping with this grub.
I feel very sorry for those being sacked, almost at a moment’s notice, with no time for discussions with their unions to negotiate a redundancy package.
Most of these people are being told of their fate late on a Friday without any prior knowledge. In fact, in the case of the Dept of Transport, Newman tried to suppress it, until some thoughtful soul “leaked” it to the media. There are 1700 or more staff involved. That is how they found out – through a leak!
That is why he is beginning to be known as ‘Newliar’.
by feeney on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Would Waynker Swan be saying all polls are meaningless if Labor was leading?
by ShowsOn on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:05 pm
imacca – That NASA has no control, other than what was pre-programmed, in the execution of a very complicated manoeuvre to land the thing makes it a stand out.
Some very nervous people waiting 14 minutes, I’d say.
by CTar1 on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Ted, Barry & Cam’s new image: Liberals are Vandals.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Cando Newman’s Tea Party Govt starting to make Joh’s looks like a Socialist Govt
by The Finnigans on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:07 pm
According to Mr Atkins in Insiders this morning this was Mr Newman’s favourite song during the late election.
http://www.metrolyrics.com/titanium-lyrics-david-guetta.html
by Boerwar on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:09 pm
OPT
I am not sure why people want to shoot Haha Pigeons and Black Swans but the wombats I can understand. They have reached plague proportions in some farming areas and cause serious destruction.
by Boerwar on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Does Waynker Swan get his polling from Gusface and Franker?
by ShowsOn on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:12 pm
OPT
Under the Medibank and Medicare agreements private patients have the right to enter Public Hospitals in all the states but my understanding (talking to some of the older specialists – who couldn’t believe what we did in NSW) is that the interchange was fairly limited in Qld before then. Qld still has the lowest % of private patients in public hospitals at about 6%.
What is different in Qld now is the number specialists who practice purely privately – this is rare in NSW and the large number of staff specialists who are in the public system. Most are on the system of payment you describe where they do not have direct access to patient fees.
by Oakeshott Country on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:13 pm
[According to Mr Atkins in Insiders this morning this was Mr Newman’s favourite song during the late election.
http://www.metrolyrics.com/titanium-lyrics-david-guetta.html
According to Mr Atkins, Can Do won’t suffer any backlash against his sackings and closures, as the people of Queensland realize that spending has to be reined in.
“Just doing what has to be done”, according to Cassidy. Nods all ’round.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 5, 2012 at 1:16 pm