Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Guytuar it may make it harder to win braddon
There is a bible belt around the devonport area if u look at the map u see the blue boths i presum that means liberal
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:25 pm
PTMD
I don’t comment on secret men’s business (inlcuding the finer details of testigrams) in mixed company.
by Boerwar on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:29 pm
Boerwar talks of testigrams.
That reminds me of a joke. Anatomy- phobics should scroll on now.
A former classical pianist, now a homeless tramp, eked out an existence in bars. He’d offer to play background music and requests from patrons, in exchange for a meal or a night’s stay.
He was very good and rarely failed to honour a request.
The poor man wore tattered clothing and one day a patron noticed that his “subject matter for testigrams” were hanging out through a rip in his daks. The patron kindly warned the piano man “do you know your testicles are hanging out?”
The piano man replied “no, but if you whistle a few bars of it I’m sure I’ll be able to play it!” (boom boom)
by psyclaw on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:30 pm
I have had this hysterical email from my cousin
Something like, he said breast screen wouod not be effected
Then it was leaked,
Now says he going back ,
But feels its going
There ffrom bisbane
This friend is a very rational educated person
Ive never re eived an email like that before
Rather mixxed up i think she was crying
Said its a dreadful dreadful ‘place nowd
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:32 pm
by Leroy on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:32 pm
My cousin is in her late 60 s , so worried of course
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Talk of Creationism being taught inschools reminds me that last week I went to the National Botanical Garden in Canberra a week or so ago. I was astounded and peeved to see that someone/s had gone around scratching off the mentions of any date prior to about 2000BC from the metal information tags. What small minds!
by Michael on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:35 pm
My Say
I checked out the statewide NSW papers today.
As you suspected, no coverage of Can’t Do’s treatment of the Northern community.
Nevertheless I think that by the end of 2013 the actions of Newman, O’Farrell, and Bailleau will ensure that the Colonition will lose votes in all eastern states ….. hopefully lots of votes.
Cheers
by psyclaw on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:36 pm
The two blue (yes, that means Liberal) booths you see near Devonport are Forth (51) and Gawler (55).
by William Bowe on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:40 pm
media should ask newman and abbott same questions,as would appear newman would be in conflict with abbott and vice versa.
http://bigpondnews.com/articles/National/2012/08/05/Qld_cant_afford_more_for_NDIS_780124.html
by Schnappi on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:46 pm
I think Newman is a blessing for Gillard/Federal Labor.
Go ahead Cando cut everything. Queensland can’t afford it. If women want to get their breasts examined, they should fork out the money themselves
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:48 pm
If Abbott is to be the wedding, Cando is the honeymoon. Try before you buy, Australia.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:51 pm
C’mon bludgers, any good news in politics over the weekend.
Sitting on 1 win (Raiders) and 3 losses (Newcastle/Cows/Titans) heading into a game where I need Parramatta to get out, I could do with some.
How about Tony Abbott has been runover by a truck!
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:54 pm
I wrote to my member, toda day ask her to let the pm know
We are hearing nothng of qld , in other states
i ask her to make sure the pm mentions him often
Coukd others do the same wkith their members.
I cannot beleive all this
She says she feels they not in aus, but in another world
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Yes, Labor could point to Newman to warn voters what the LNP really stand for, but at the end of the day, people are going to have to wake up for themselves.
I’m glad, Cando holds 82 to 7 seats, Queenslanders get what they deserve.
Couldn’t happen to nicer State
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:01 pm
One thing i doubt they will vote lnp again in our life time
But who knows, they didnt learn from the 60s
Promlem is new generations , who dont believe what u tell them
Like rummel u will never get through to them
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Centre,
Part of me feels that way, but then i think of the Labor faithful in Qld.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:06 pm
Yeah well they better start leaking more internal party pretend polling, they’ve got to Sept 30 before either one female RESIGNS:-
a) Julia Gillard or b) Jennifer Hewitt.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:07 pm
1. Will Can-do reverse the trend for Qld to gain population from other eastern states (esp NSW)? Will be interesting to see 2012 stats.
2. Can the Qld sunshine compensate for Can-do?
by lizzie on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:10 pm
psyclaw
Boom Boom. I like it.
by Boerwar on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Puff
There isn’t too much faithful around (7 to 82)
Actually if Abbott does win the election, I know many here will disagree, but I hope he does gain control the Senate (possible if Labor place Greens last).
That consists of two positives:
1. Labor stand a better chance to win back government sooner.
2. No Greens nuisance in future.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:14 pm
The LNP has 78 seats in Queensland – not 82.
by William Bowe on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Being that it is the Terrorgraph the backflip on the breast screening could be total bullshit as they have form and a lot of it.
by canasta76 on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Who believes anything Wayne Swan says?
I don’t.
by ShowsOn on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:21 pm
OK William
That makes a big difference to their majority.
Thanks.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Why not?
by WeWantPaul on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:27 pm
The only thing QLD has going for it at the moment is the sunshine.
It’s absolutely magnificent up here lately – blue sky, 23 degrees +
by feeney on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Thanks William
Of course they weren’t, as well you know! Even if you didn’t, you should have done the ethical thing and checked your prejudices before putting them into print.
BTW, that would be a NATIONAL press release. ALL war news had to be cleared with the relevant war censorship office; so most probably by ACT or NSW residents.
Most Qld reporters were in the Middle East (esp in Palestine & Syria, where Qld troops were engaged – inc Kevin Rudd’s father in the engineers) or the Pacific Theatre. Several with the 8th Division AIF (Singapore) and Borneo had been captured.
BTW: 4 August 1942 Lt-Col AG Cameron arrived to take command at Deniki (Kokoda Trail) with a plan to retake Kokoda – where it was thought there were 300-500 Japanese – were then well advanced (Dudley McCarthy (1959): South-West Pacific Area Firt Year: Kokoda to Wau; p132ff. At Milne Bay, where Brig J Field’s American & Australians were making defence preparations, Japanese had attacked for the 1st time on 4 August, and continued strafing between then & the second air raid on 11 August. (ibid p158). In the Solomon Is, US troops were preparing to invade Guadalcanal.
(It take a bit of effort to straighten out McCarthy’s timelines, esp his comparative time lines. Great detail; but when I was studying Oz in WW II, I had to translate his narrative into vertical timelines on butchers’ paper. Oh to have had a good computer then!)
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Because Wayne Swan is not Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Andrew Robb or Barnaby Joyce.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:31 pm
agree, its hard enough to look passed our dislike of Gillard.
by rummel on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Centre,
So, what’s it like living under a sheet of tin? I assume that you followed your own advice after exhorting everyone to put there house, their car, their first-born and their dog on the Gold Coast Titans. Maybe you’re lucky and have two houses after all that successful punting on football. Still cherishing that comment earlier in the season where you said it’s easy to get rich betting against the Bunnies. After 13 from the last 16, not so much?
by Roy Orbison on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:36 pm
Yeah don’t worry Roy.
I am well ahead with the Bunnies over the last few seasons believe me.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Its funny dont you think peeps that stupid people wouod vote against their childrens best
Interest becauce they dislike a person they havent met.’
Makes u wonder about people ho do t love their family enough, to vote to keep medicare
Nbn hecs pbs
Just becauce they dont like the sound of a voice or colour of hair ,
You woukd have to ask why
But of course there kids cannot get a goid education go to uni
They will be screaming , like qlders,
All becauce they dont like some one
Makes u laugh, but then its not funny its sad, for their family
Dont u think
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:47 pm
, Part of me feels that way, but then i think of the Labor faithful in Qld.
Puff posted,
Yes like my cousin
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:50 pm
Actually Roy, if interested, for me Manly just happen to be my worst team betting for the year. Tigers and Dragons have not been that good either.
On the credit side, Sharks, Broncos and Bulldogs have delivered.
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:55 pm
by victoria on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:55 pm
I know this is entirely “disloyal” but i am a little bit happy that both NZ and UK are beating us!! Australian sports people but particularly the sport establishment and media really shit me off for their childish unwarranted arrogance and POOR sportsmanship.
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Delighted the Enzedders are doing well. The Brits, not so much.
The Brits have put enormous effort into their cycling and rowing. Bit like us twenty years ago.
by This little black duck on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:01 pm
Swamprat,
I don’t think it is in the least disloyal. You are so right: the sports
establishentitlementistas and the meeja are outrageous – just like 2-year-old children – and deserve no encouragement at all.Seriously, if right-wingers want to whinge about “élites”, why don’t they take on the élitest of them all (and I bet the so-and-so’s don’t sip chardonnay or lattés).
But of course they won’t – it’s a bit like expecting them to apply their anti-union rhetoric to the unions of the élite professions – the doctors, the lawyers, etc etc etc.
by fiona on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:04 pm
This was on TVNZ news
Interviewing Aussies….
http://tvnz.co.nz/olympics-2012/aussie-broadcaster-wipes-nz-off-olympic-medal-table-5006115/video?vid=5006464
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:12 pm
“What would you like to say to NZ fans?” ….”I’m David and I’m single.”
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:13 pm
I do like enzedders
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:14 pm
When is the next Newspoll due?
by feeney on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:17 pm
feeney
55:45
by swamprat on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:18 pm
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics 28m
Why did the Newman government force a public servant to address the media over a Ministerial stuff up today? Poor form #BreastScreen
View details
by victoria on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:20 pm
feeney
60:40
by rummel on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Puff
Found in WA news, Might be intrest to you and other SA
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/14466366/aged-care-experts-gather-for-conference/
by Schnappi on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:21 pm
feeney
90/10
by Centre on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Swamprat makes my happy commentators have nothing to
about
I think its their attitude to politics in this country,
It makes me smile , they are getting not much glory.
I think all these silver medals are gold for the learnng lessons in life
Bit like the cricket team
The commentary is dreadful i bet at the track there is throws jumps ect
by my say on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:22 pm
54:46
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 5, 2012 at 8:22 pm