Seat of the week: Braddon

Saturday, August 4, 2012

by William Bowe

Federal Election 2013

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).

To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.

The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.

In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).

It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.

The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.

Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.

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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-

2520 Responses

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Let’s try a new page!

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:13 am
And see if that works.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:13 am
The Northwest Passage is closed again this morning.

by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:14 am
Boerwar@1694,

Mr Leak’s cartoon attacks Mr Abbott’s hypocrisy on Chinese investment today. It is not funny but it does show Mr Abbott talking out of both sides of his mouth.

And there I was preparing to collar Bill Leak down at the local coffee shop where he has his morning caffeinated heart-starter and put it to him that he was in the running for Gold as Australia’s most conservative cartoonist. There being only a cigarette paper’s worth of difference between himself and Larry Pickering. Bugger!

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:14 am
canasta76 @ 1695

Cando the Candy Man does it again And it is against a couple of 85 year olds amongst other residents of The Lazy Acres Caravan Park

This couple and a lot in similar circumstances clearly voted for the LNP. They would have thought the LNP would look after them and only go after the many Labor parasites (eg dole bludgers, refugees) they regularly hear about from the tabloids and shock jocks.

If people actually voted on the issues rather than in response to the emotional buttons the MSM push the LNP would be lucky to be on 30%.

by CO on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:16 am
This couple and a lot in similar circumstances clearly voted for the LNP. They would have thought the LNP would look after them and only go after the many Labor parasites (eg dole bludgers, refugees) they regularly hear about from the tabloids and shock jocks.

If people actually voted on the issues rather than in response to the emotional buttons the MSM push the LNP would be lucky to be on 30%.

I am hoping that Gillard and the rest of Labor start telling people the danger of using baseball bats to fill out their voting forms, instead of stubby pencils.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:37 am
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/its-too-easy-being-green-20120805-23nqe.html

Amanda Vanstone asks a few good questions in this piece, including:

Hanson-Young should be asked what she thinks is the limit of what Australia can afford in unlawful boat arrivals. She should not be allowed to evade giving an answer, a number. Then it can be costed and the public can really judge whether her ideas are feasible.

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:37 am
CanDo the chicken man . A community cabinet meeting was held in Prosperine and the coward did not allow any questions from the floor. But but but Campbell you told us just days ago how happy people were with your cuts.

QUEENSLAND Premier Campbell Newman arrived at his second community cabinet forum to the chant of "Shame Campbell Shame" but he made sure there was little room for dissent during official proceedings.
.....Axed again was the public Q&A session, which was a mainstay under the previous government,

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/protesters-meet-newman-at-cabinet-forum/story-e6freon6-1226443340403

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:39 am
The Salvos in NSW are heading into a minefield with this one:

THE Salvation Army claims a new agreement for its chaplains to work in clubs will ''make a difference'' to problem gamblers, but campaigners for poker machine reform have condemned it as a ''whitewash''.

Clubs NSW and the Salvation Army's eastern branch have signed a memorandum of understanding that could have Salvation Army staff stationed in clubs across the state if a 12-month trial at the Mingara club on the central coast succeeds.

The anti-gambling campaigner Reverend Tim Costello said the Salvation Army had allowed itself to be used by the clubs to improve their image when the agreement would have no impact on problem gambling. ''I think the clubs have done a nice little whitewash,'' he said.

Announcement of the agreement indicated a split in the Salvation Army with Major Brad Halse, the Army spokesman on gambling for all states other than NSW and Queensland, revealing he had only just learnt it was being negotiated and said its timing would undermine attempts at poker-machine reform. ''It's hard to imagine this type of alignment between one part of the church sector and one part of the gambling sector is going to help things,'' he said.

Reverend Costello also criticised a clause in the agreement which says the Salvation Army and Clubs NSW must jointly agree before making any comment to the media about the chaplaincy program. ''I would never sign that, I don't know any church leader who would,'' he said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/costello-slams-salvosclubs-deal-as-whitewash-20120805-23o0j.html#ixzz22iaZYHvb

by citizen on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:41 am
Surely Can-do isn’t refusing to acknowledge the power of the sun?
http://www.solarserver.com/solar-magazine/solar-news/current/2012/kw27/queensland-terminates-usd-75-million-funding-for-solar-dawn-project.html

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:43 am
Further to 1709

The project is also tied to a USD 68 million research and development (R&D) program at the University of Queensland, which the Australian federal government has expressed concern over in light of the Queensland Government's withdrawal of funding.

Minister Ferguson also expressed concern over a potential for USD 1.5 billion in investment in Queensland and 300 construction and manufacturing jobs connected to the project.

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:45 am
Reverend Costello also criticised a clause in the agreement which says the Salvation Army and Clubs NSW must jointly agree before making any comment to the media about the chaplaincy program. ''I would never sign that, I don't know any church leader who would,'' he said.

The Salvos are perhaps more reminiscent of the Jüdischer Ordnungsdienst.

The last trainload leaving will include themselves.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:50 am
Accomplished Coalition/LNP liar and Premier of Queensland, Campbell Newman, has this as today’s effort in going for Gold in the Olympic-scale Lying competition:

Julie Bignell ‏@JBPooket

Newman and mates rewriting history on wage negotiations. Wage freeze has never been put to union, only media. Just like jobs cuts #qldpol

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:51 am
citizen

I now tell any Salvos who turn up at my door to fark off until their group stops promoting gambling for the Clubs.

by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:52 am
The Salvation Army will be treated like a used tissue by the Clubs Industry if Abbott gets into power.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:52 am
lizzie

Surely Can-do isn’t refusing to acknowledge the power of the sun?

I guess the LNP mullahs issued a fatwa declaring that, like climate change, solar energy is also “post-normal science”. The sun is after all involved in the climate so you can’t be too careful

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 am
BB

Such energy….you are on fire this morning!

by psyclaw on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 am
Diogenes@1713,

now tell any Salvos who turn up at my door to fark off until their group stops promoting gambling for the Clubs.

I do the same at the local Shopping Mall. I just walk on by.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:54 am
This article…

Business building bridges to China to repair ties

by: MICHAEL SAINSBURY, CHINA CORRESPONDENT
From: The Australian
August 06, 2012 12:00AM

AUSTRALIAN business leaders have seized the initiative on ties with China, starting a "desperately overdue" dialogue after becoming exasperated with what they view as Labor's mishandling of the country's most critical bilateral relationship.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/foreign-affairs/business-building-bridges-to-china-to-repair-ties/story-fn59nm2j-1226443474575

… actually quotes no business leader as criticising Labor in any way.

Only the journo does that.

Most of the “business” commentary is relatively upbeat.

I am thankful to know that, according to The Australian and Tony Abbott, the media, however, runs no anti-Labor agenda.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:55 am
C@tmomma

I remember them running social policy for Howie as well to give him false cred. The Salvos are the modern equivalent of collaborators as BB has said.

by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 am
I wonder if this guy had a drug habit or a gambling habit? He seemed to know where the Pokies’ takings were and when they were collected from the machines:

http://www.vicpolicenews.com.au/more-news/10103-armed-robbery-at-keilor.html

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 am
C@tmomma

Newman has form on that issue. Late last year he criticised Anna Bligh as being unfair by capping pay increases at 2.5 %. Then a couple of weeks back he said the job losses were the workers own fault as a pay freeze would have saved the jobs.

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:59 am
The last trainload leaving will include themselves.

Perhaps that should have been…

The last "courtesy bus" leaving the premises will include themselves.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:00 am
Diogenes

I remember them running social policy for Howie as well to give him false cred.

Didn’t Howie appoint some Salvo to head the government drug policy unit or some such ?

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:01 am
I remember them running social policy for Howie as well to give him false cred. The Salvos are the modern equivalent of collaborators as BB has said.

The original Jüdischer Ordnungsdienst received privileges and preferential treatment, rations etc., in exchange for telling their fellow Jews that they were doing them a favour, getting them places on the next train to the glorious East.

Apparently, many believed they were doing a good and essential job.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:03 am
Anyone know the veracity of the internal polling used by Mark Riley and wish to hazard an opinion as to why it was leaked?

by Lynchpin on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 am
Diogenes@1719,

I remember them running social policy for Howie as well to give him false cred. The Salvos are the modern equivalent of collaborators as BB has said.

Yes, all for a few dollars more out of the club goers as the Salvos hang around like simpering sycophants on the backs of the Clubs’ Colossus.

Talk about selling your soul to the Devil.

I wonder if any of them ever reflect on that?

However, here in NSW they have form. Their chief PR spokeswoman on the Central Coast is the very same woman who got into a slanging match with Craig Thomson at a Rally to oppose any government action being taken on Problem Gambling when the Anti ALP Marginal Seat MP campaign was in full swing.

Though I will add that there are a few good souls in the Salvos. Misguided souls if you ask me. None of them in a position of power though.

Finally, I will just bring up again the story from Howard’s time of the Salvation Army High Office holders who were sprung making a fortune ripping off Deceased Estates which had been left to the Salvos so that they could sell the stuff on to Antique Dealers before it had a chance to go anywhere near a Salvos Store.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:06 am
Another spree gun killing in the US, this time in a Sikh temple. Seven dead.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/05/wisconsin-shooting-sikh-temple_n_1744256.html

by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:09 am
I’m trying to work out the connection between plastic bags and productivity.

The Canberra Liberals have confirmed they will overturn the territory’s ban on free plastic bags if they win October’s ACT election.
The policy announcement is in contrast to the 2004 election campaign, when the Liberals promised to ban free plastic bags in the ACT.

Opposition Leader Zed Seselja said last night ''a lot had changed since then'', with information from independent bodies such as the Productivity Commission questioning the value of a ban.

Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/libs-push-for-bag-ban-results-promising-to-overturn-ban-if-elected-20120805-23oa4.html#ixzz22ihPVdGr

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:09 am
poroti@1723,

Didn’t Howie appoint some Salvo to head the government drug policy unit or some such

That would be Major Brian Watters. (Photographic memory )

Here’s his mug shot:

http://www.drugfree.org.au/about/managementcommittee/

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:10 am
Diogenes@1727,

Another spree gun killing in the US, this time in a Sikh temple. Seven dead.

As I understand it, it is being treated as a case of Domestic Terrorism & the FBI are involved, as apparently the gunman mistakenly thought the Sikhs were Muslims.

I truly believe the IQ of Americans has gone down since Fox Propaganda Network came on air.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:14 am
c@tmomma

Bingo ! That’s the one, thanks.

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:14 am
I read it so youse don’t have to..

The job of government is to foster free speech, not to suppress it

by: Tony Abbott
From: The Australian
August 06, 2012 12:00AM

THIS is not a government that argues its case. Mostly, it howls down its critics using the megaphone of incumbency. There's the jihad against mining magnates for daring to question the government's investment-sapping mining tax.

There's the claim that Gina Rinehart is a "danger to democracy" because she dared to buy an interest in a newspaper group and refused to endorse the Fairfax group's existing editorial culture.

Wrong. She refused to endorse an independent editorial policy.

Late last year, Communications Minister Stephen Conroy accused the Sydney Daily Telegraph of a deliberate campaign to "bring the government down".

Too stupid to waste time rebutting.

Julia Gillard had a screaming match with former News Limited boss John Hartigan over an article about her dealings prior to entering parliament with a union official.

Says who?

The Greens have been consistently critical of those former senator Bob Brown tagged the "hate media".

Ask a dole bludger or a Muslim.

The Prime Minister personally insisted that News Limited in Australia had "questions to answer" in the wake of the British phone hacking scandal. It seems obvious that her real concern was not Fleet Street-style illegality but News Limited's coverage of her government.

Of course, it couldn’t possibly happen here. Just ask James Ashby, or Godwin Grech, or Steve Lewis.

The article for which Bolt was prosecuted under this legislation was almost certainly not his finest. Still, if free speech is to mean anything, it's the freedom to write badly and rudely. Speech that has to be inoffensive is not free, just unerringly politically correct.

If it's all right for David Marr to upset conservative Christians, why is it not all right for Bolt to upset activist Aborigines?

“Badly and crudely” just about sums up today’s effort, Tony.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/the-job-of-government-is-to-foster-free-speech-not-to-suppress-it/story-e6frgd0x-1226443377179

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:18 am
As I understand it, it is being treated as a case of Domestic Terrorism & the FBI are involved, as apparently the gunman mistakenly thought the Sikhs were Muslims.

Well, they are different. You’d have to concede that.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:19 am
If it's all right for David Marr to upset conservative Christians, why is it not all right for Bolt to upset activist Aborigines?

Because activist aborigines are defibnitely suspect people. Aborigines should be placid, and well-bahaved. Most of all they should be tribal black to prove their bona fides, before they start getting all “activisty”.

by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:21 am
c@tmomma

Speaking of falling US IQ’s. Whilst today we see the 21st century in the Mars rover landing ( fingers crossed ) in Texas they have yet to make it to the 19th century. They are about to execute a guy with an I.Q. of 61 and…..

He could not, for instance, cut the grass or use a ladder on his own, or dress himself properly with matching socks and buttoned up shirt.He was deemed unable to manage his own money and was incapable of self-direction.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/05/texas-death-row-mentally-retarded

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:21 am
Heard told this morning that CanBull is about to toast the Wild Rivers Legislation as Gina needs access to a port from her mine …..

Disclaimer: I voted Labor.

by muttleymcgee on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:22 am
apparently the gunman mistakenly thought the Sikhs were Muslims.

Oh well, that’s alright, then. It was just an error of judgement.
And bloody uneducated ignorance.

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:23 am
poroti,
And then you look at who Texans keep voting for as Governor.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:25 am
as apparently the gunman mistakenly thought the Sikhs were Muslims.

Again ? Soon after 9/11 a dumbarsked American shot and killed an Indian because he thought he was a “Mooslim Ayrab”. I think there was a couple of other shootings a well. Apparently turban = Crazy Al Qaeda suicide bomber.

by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:26 am
Bushfire Bill,
A cute follow on from your 1732;

ManO’Steel(town) ‏@berkeleyboy

Tony Abbott to introduce the Andrew Bolt Act, enshrining media’s right to tell lies and racially vilify.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:29 am
Spike Milligan to the poet Robert Graves, 1971.

"...it would appear that Western civilization is failing due to its preoccupation with money - we have made this the fulcrum of our society and it's become an uncontrollable monster..."

by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:30 am
the sleeper issue is Climate Change. not whether it is nickel and dimeing our electricty bills, but what it is doing to our planet. Time for the govt to go on the front foot

This from NASA reported in the Washington Post:

James E. Hansen directs the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

When I testified before the Senate in the hot summer of 1988 , I warned of the kind of future that climate change would bring to us and our planet. I painted a grim picture of the consequences of steadily increasing temperatures, driven by mankind’s use of fossil fuels.

But I have a confession to make: I was too optimistic
My projections about increasing global temperature have been proved true. But I failed to fully explore how quickly that average rise would drive an increase in extreme weather.

In a new analysis of the past six decades of global temperatures, which will be published Monday, my colleagues and I have revealed a stunning increase in the frequency of extremely hot summers, with deeply troubling ramifications for not only our future but also for our present.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/climate-change-is-here–and-worse-than-we-thought/2012/08/03/6ae604c2-dd90-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html?hpid=z3

by sprocket_ on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:30 am
Hmmm. Major Brian Watters. Now retired I believe.

There was a lot of dissention in the ranks of the Salvos over his apointment to Howard’s ANCD – Australian National Council on Drugs. Watters took a very hard line on drug use and thought of it as a sin. More reasonable Salvos, especially in Victoria, had a different view. Watters sounded like a first grade nutter at the time. There are some not very flattering comments here -
http://epubs.scu.edu.au/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1026&context=jesp
at about page 11. and a lot of very unflattering remarks about Howard as well.

Now we have more rumbling in the ranks about the pokies/clubs thing. A lot of Salvos it seems, are not in favour.

Why do the Salvos and other religious types seem to think it necessary to hang off Coalition governments? You’d think they’d be all for the other side of politics, seeing as how the founder of their faith was a bit of a pinko, commie, socialist rebel himself. I don’t seem to remember any mention in Christ’s teachings about maximising profits for shareholders or supporting temples dedicated to ripping off the poor via gambling.

by leone on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:30 am
As I understand it, it is being treated as a case of Domestic Terrorism & the FBI are involved, as apparently the gunman mistakenly thought the Sikhs were Muslims.

The US media quote the police that it this a case of “domestic terrorism”. However the mass shootings at the Batman movie in Colorado were not regarded as “terrorism”. How on earth do the US authorities define “terrorism”? Were the innocent victims in Colorado not terrorised by the gunman?

by citizen on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:31 am
Hahaha.

At Bolt’s, remember this quote from the Galileo Movement project leader.

I see Malcolm Roberts has reportedly said climate science is controlled by “some of the major banking families in the world” who form “a tight-knit cabal”.

Bolt has demanded the Galileo Movement remove his name from their site in response.

And Bolt’s commentators are going in to bat for the Galileo Movement. Climate science really is controlled by “major banking families” who tend to be from one ethnic group which is often scapegoated by the far Right.

by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:32 am
poroti@1739,

Apparently turban = Crazy Al Qaeda suicide bomber.

Which is why they were all just minding their own business and observing their religion in their temple on a Sunday in Milwaukee.

Fair dinkum, this is one hell of a crazy jihad the Christian Soldiers and their brainwashed footsoldiers are waging.

Religion. Who needs it?

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:33 am
didn’t tony abbott tell us taht prices would go up and aup and up under the Carbon Tax?

maybe they will in the second month of operation…….

1m Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk
A staggeringly low (0.2%) rise in monthly inflation given it includes first take of price effects of carbon price

1m Peter Martin ‏@1petermartin
TD-MI Inflation Gauge - prices rise a mere 0.2% in July and 1.5%/yr despite carbon tax

by sprocket_ on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:35 am
sprocket,
Apparently Abbott’s next scare campaign about the Price on Carbon is going to revolve around scaring everyone witless when their Winter Power Bills come in, and blame it on the ‘Carbon Tax’. Not on the Rolled Gold rip-off currently underway via the gold-plating of the poles and wires by the Electricity suppliers.

by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:37 am
Stephen Koukolous opining that without the Carbon Tax, inflation would be negative.

by sprocket_ on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:39 am

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