Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
The Coalition brainwashing is still working in Queensland. One of the few Independent MPs up there is trying to criticise NoCan Do’s heartless cuts and Caravan Park sell-offs, and all the commenters can do is attack him and mouth the bs Newman has come up with to mask his heartlessness and opportunism:
http://www.sunshinecoastdaily.com.au/story/2012/08/06/mp-blasts-state-spending-cuts-sunshine-coast/
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:40 am
I knew he would give into the miners – to hell with conserving pristine rivers for the future. Though the big pressure will be on Lake Eyre Basin rivers and the LEB’s gas & other minerals’ deposits. Because it’s a crucial artesian basin, mining the LEB will adversely affect NT & SA more that Q. I suppose they’ll be in Q in droves, helping the fight. Not.
BTW, Same disclaimer; but you all know that already!
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:46 am
Jesus,Mary and Joseph!
Mitt Romney is apologising to the Sikh community for the gunman’s ‘mistake’?!?
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:46 am
I think Abbott should check his definition of free speech. Criticising somebody for their actions or opinions is not a violation of their free speech.
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:48 am
BB good to see you support free speech only if it accords with your centre left viewpoints.
Haven’t seen much independent charter signing at Crikey, The Monthly , Global Mail and the many left wing blogs and gabfests.
The good thing about the left wings attack on free speech is that in just over twelve months it will be rewarded in kind by the other side. Don’t expect any support from Finklestein and all then to save Fairfax etc. We can have a nice little enquiry headed by David Flint and say Michael Duffy or Janet Albrechtsen which is would be about as independent as Gillard’s Kangaroo enquiry I.e not.
The media landscape will change in just over 12 months time but this time given the Labor precedent the Libs will not pussyfoot around particularly with the ABC that lacks any conservative elements at all. The ABC will be reconstructed and nobody will even try to be fair this time. It should be broken up and decentralized .Shows like Media Watch can be run by Gerard Henderson who can then just dump shit on progressive journalists like MW presenters have always done from the left like Littlemore, Marr, Attard, Ackland, Holmes etc. Pretty obvious they are all 100% lefties aren’t they wink wink I.e not neutrals.
For 7.30 we can have the partner of. Liberal MP as co host then you can really get the picture.
He’d key Thomas can run Four Corners and then just run exposes of the corruption in our trade unions which should supply about 5 years of viewing.
Given the precedent of our universities we can just ditch all the left wing so called journo schools and fill them with ex News Limited staffers.
It will be a beautiful thing and will last for a good decade I would guess.
It is vital for this to happen that Labor stick with Gillard though to ensure a massive result even in Tasmania and the NT.
Obviously Shorten, Butler or Clare would minimize any swing albeit not stop it.
For all the true believers who don’t see this happening. Yo know who you are. Where do Labor pick up seats in 2013? Can Oakeshott possibly win or Windsor?
Will Queensland really not swing or NSW?
Yes indeed the media in Australia is certainly about to change in just over 12 months just not like you hope True free speech will be brought back because true free speech includes the “right to offend” otherwise you might as well just go back to the Iron Curtain days which many of you would love in any case.
Good on you BB
by stanny on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:50 am
And I’m sure he’ll have some useful prayers for them, too.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:51 am
Oh yes, Abbott is all for free speech. Unless it’s on a poster on a wall in the privacy of Tanya Plibersek’s office.
by Aguirre on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:51 am
Just what the world needs, a right-wing Mormon nutjob who thinks it’s OK to shoot people you don’t like, just as long as you don’t mistakenly shoot the wrong people.
Add that to his comments about Jerusalem being the capital of Israel and you have a very loose cannon indeed.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/29/mitt-romney-jerusalem-israel_n_1716662.html
by leone on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:52 am
I’ve the greatest respect for Peter Wellington, who was first elected in 1998, backed Peter Beattie in a minority government after Borbidge’s excesses & scandals. He’s another of those exemplary Indies; focused on his electorate, decent, fair & courageous:
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:53 am
I wonder what the story behind the Sikh shooting will turn out to be.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:53 am
Now the question remains will Tom Slingsby finish higher than 7th tonight and restore order in the universe or will his boat hit a WW2 mine and sink when 30 seconds in front on the final leg heading for GOLD.
Given the Aussies ability to snatch silver from gold in the last breath anything is possible.
Tom should win and become an overnight hero. Go Tom
by davidwh on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:55 am
There’s been a massive spill on post 1753. Bile everywhere. Anyone got a mop?
by Aguirre on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:56 am
Our Olympians are fed up with media criticism and are fighting back. And about time too.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2012/s3561135.htm
by leone on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:57 am
Peter Wellington sounds like a courageous individual. However, that seems to be secondary these days to being an accomplished liar and polished propagandist.
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:57 am
MammaMia going in to bat for the PM, and not in a fawning way:
http://www.mamamia.com.au/news/the-man-who-called-for-the-slaughter-of-julia-gillard/
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:58 am
stanny
There is a right to free speech but there sure as hell is not a right to publish false and misleading news. There is a big difference so bring on our version of the Canadian media laws. Murdoch Inc’s real worry is losing their right to bullshit.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:02 am
And in front of a hostile audience too!
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:03 am
by leone on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:04 am
There are some lovely religious types in the US. This crowd in particular!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/05/westboro-responds-to-wisc_n_1745173.html?1344206543
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
Re the Canadian media laws. What an admission by Rupe’s Fox News. It is not broadcast in Canada because they cannot meet the simple requirement of not broadcasting false or misleading news.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:10 am
You guys are funny. They only place in OZ the Canadian media laws are discussed is here on PB.
The govt is not even close to considering them or anything like them.
by bluegreen on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:13 am
Here we go.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:14 am
BG if we had Canadian media laws the the Courier Mail would have to correct their misleading report published on the weekend on the breast screening program.
by davidwh on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:16 am
bluegreen
So what ? PB also brought up the conservatives in NZ having a concience vote on gay marriage without the gov or oppo here looking like having one.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:17 am
David WH
Calling, calling
Justify Cando please !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You voted for him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by daretotread on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:19 am
davidwh
Good. Bullshit is bullshit.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:20 am
BK
One report said he had a 9-11 tattoo.
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:21 am
i will do a nude run through PB if this ALP govt announced media laws that looked anything like the Canadian ones. this is something i have completely given up on.
by middle man on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:22 am
For information only.
by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:26 am
middle man
Well I guess we won’t have the “pleasure” of middle man streaking around the PB lounge then
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
stanny
Full marks for posting the funniest diatribe so far this month. I don’t know how you do it with just one hand on the keyboard.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
You know you want to, and it’s the shortest survey in history:
Andrew Leigh @ALeighMP
Do you support increasing our humanitarian migrant intake from 13,750 to 20,000? Have your say: https://www.research.net/s/HumanitarianIntake
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:28 am
stanny is just another internet bully who believes it’s the Coalition way, or no way at all.
Loser.
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:29 am
BK. Diogs.
Did any of the reports mention whether he had a brain?
by middle man on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:30 am
Trying to figure out whether Stanny is joking, or not.
Bolt broke the law of the land for which he was penalized appropriately.
Any pressure put on News Ltd. by Gillard over that “Love Nest” beat-up (which raises its ugly head with monotonous regularity, mentioning she strenuously denies everything so they can then list everything she denies, again) is emphasizing a falsehood. A shock jock and a News Ltd reporter (Milne) got fired over the penultimate attempt to run it. Bolt was censored by his own management and has remained so to this day. If you think Gillard has that kind of clout – with all the garbage they feel free to write about her at any other time – then you’re deluding yourself. It was and remains a lie, yet News continues to run it.
Sounds like “hate” to me.
More honoured in the breach than anything else, at least Fairfax has an independence charter (as does News Ltd.), but Gina refused to sign it. So she gets kept off the board. Fair enough. When in Rome…
Regarding the ABC, it has been certified as having over half its commentary coming from the IPA (where Abbott is speaking today), and most of the other half coming from News Ltd. Yet you think it needs to have the lefties cleaned out?
And as for News Ltd., they have a sorry record of running stories that are not only critical of the government, but egregiously, outrageously wrong as to fact e.g. (Grech, kids water bottles at APH, almost anything about electricity pricing until just today). The Grech story involved the outright counterfeiting of an email, and the Ashby story involves the theft of confidential documents. Just like what News does in the UK. Yet you don’t think there might be a chance they’re a little bit bent, maybe same-like their offspring (yes, News started here) in the UK and the USA?
You’re either a buffoon Stanny or a very, very good comedian.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:30 am
How can he stand there with his face hanging out and say that.
by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:30 am
So blatant! Paul Keating is speaking but almost the whole time half the screen is taken up with the message that “Opposition Leader Tony Abbott” will be giving you a much more important speech soon, so long as you just wait and sit through this guff….
by IMOHO on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:34 am
He’s simply doing some third-class trolling BB.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:34 am
So why does Abbott use his foot so often?
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:34 am
What colour is Tones hair today?
Well on his left side he has a nice dark tone with a solid separation line into an nice greying area.
Watching him on the ABC24 right now
by jeffemu on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:35 am
“Free from a knock on the door in the middle of the night?”
Stanny will be pleased.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:37 am
What a contrast on News 24.
Serious international policy debate as outlined by Paul Keating to Tony Abbott running the News Limited argument against media regulation.
by guytaur on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:39 am
Isn’t there a difference between hurting feelings and libel?
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:40 am
Oh christ…
“Boats, batts, Slipper, the NBN, Thomson…”
They’re all there in Abbott’s speech.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:40 am
Abbott has a new NDIS.
News Defence In Spades.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:41 am
Is it my imagination, or did Abbott just say, “when a well-respected Speaker of the Parliament is forced to resign….”
by IMOHO on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:41 am
What a lying horrible Politician is Abbott.
by Muskiemp on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:41 am
BB,
And the hundreds of houses that caught fire too. Hundreds of houses !!!
by jeffemu on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:42 am
“screaming match”… does that mean Hartigan was screaming too?
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:42 am
How is he allowed to get away with this speech.
by Muskiemp on Aug 6, 2012 at 11:43 am