Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
I used to spend school football games running away from the ball. This took concentration, determination and an utter disregard for the disapprobium of fellow team members.
My favourite stats were: kicks, 0; hand balls, 0; Marks, 0. Naturally, I used to be picked last. The good best thing about it all was that I never, ever, failed to meet expectations.
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:35 pm
How right you are, leone. The kids with sporting ability are nurtured outside School sport and it’s the parent who do the hard yakka. We had 3 kids playing in State teams in 3 different sports (plus playing for school teams). It was a nightmare getting them all to training and matches plus Sports camps and our life was a constant coming and going.
I was glad when they got driving licences but it wasn’t the school that fostered the interest. I’ve seen many parents completely worn down so I don’t envy any family which has a kid wanting to make the Olympics. I certainly don’t decry any kid who doesn’t get a medal – most are trying their hearts out and more money is not the answer.
I’d get rid of Coates and Gosper for good – they’ve got me fired up.
And Abbott is making me burn as well – just a big pity that Bob Ellis wrote his book a few years too soon otherwise Abbott and Costello would be suffering if Abbott ideas on freedom were in vogue.
The Schools were only
by BH on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Boewar
Think those are worn on opposite side of chest
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:36 pm
r
Why would even the Coalition want to dig up all the pollution they have buried around Australia?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Reminder for those interested. Qanda tonight includes
Craig Emerson
George Brandis
Bob Katter
by victoria on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:36 pm
c@tmomma
I have not felt such a space based buzz since the last moon landing.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Schappi
I am ignorant of these matters. I thought the non-heart side medals are those earned by a relation rather than the wearer. Happy to learn on the matter. So, what was the answer to which medal cannot be worn?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:37 pm
poroti
No , an Australian Medal
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:37 pm
So remember to turn that TV volume down a bit before watching, especially if played through big speakers.
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Depends if you are in uniform on not. If in mufti you may wear whatever you wish.
by ruawake on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Schnappi
Bugger. Last guess how about one awarded for doing something not able to be acknowledged publicly by the government ?
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:40 pm
The medal I have is for service to Australia,lousy guvmint does not allow to be worn
Perhaps helps.
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:40 pm
BK – we can but dream. Betcha none of them pick it up. It will be alternative media that will dissect it but that won’t be reported.
by BH on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:41 pm
poroti
Although I was in SAS,now SASR not one of those
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:42 pm
poroti
meant your post
Bugger. Last guess how about one awarded for doing something not able to be acknowledged publicly by the government ?
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Schappi
Is it true that there is no law preventing you from wearing whatever medal you have purchased whenever you feel like it?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Schnappi
DSIS?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Boerwar
Medals from the likes of the Royal Humane Society are also worn on the ‘tother side.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:47 pm
Gosper has out-Coatesed Coates.
Well done!
Tosser!
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:47 pm
poroti
I plead Sergeant Schulz.
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:48 pm
As someone who got to the State level in Athletics in my chosen athletic discipline, Walking, and the Zone in a few others, plus was School Open Athletics Champion one year. Not only that but was in an Australian Champion team one year and chosen for the Rep Team in the team sport which I participated in outside of school, I think I can safely say that there are 2 essential ingredients if you want to go so far as the Olympics.
1. Motivation. Enough to get up from a warm bed in the middle of Winter, or in the baking sun in Summer, to go and compete, every weekend for most of the year. Topped up with motivation enough to back up a few times a week to train. Plus the motivation and desire to be the best at what it is you are doing.
2. A physiology appropriate to the discipline. However, I would also add that there are Olympic sports which don’t really need a particular physical type, eg Archery, just that motivation thing again.
And no one made me do it. I wanted it so badly that I pushed myself mainly.
by C@tmomma on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Boewar,ru,poroti,
Just thought that people who have died for service in Australia,are not very well acknowledge by our pollies,some never served overseas even,some were civilians,3 british services ,3 of ours and civiiians, served at Maralinga,to get the Medal one had to serve there during the atomic tests period.
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:48 pm
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/06/get-fact-is-the-labor-caucus-full-of-working-class-heroes/
worth a read, turns out many are
by Leroy on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Schnappi
Strewth!
You aren’t known as Sparky in another life are you?
by Dee on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:50 pm
I think that sailing chappie might ruin the $600 million a gold medal line that I have cherished for the Games so far.
It looks like we will be degraded to $300 per million per gold. The per capita GDP of the world’s poorest country is less than $400.
Olympic class losers? Them or us?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:50 pm
by lizzie on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Full table of ALP MPs is linked in the above article, but here it is for easy access.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2012/08/06/get-fact-which-labor-mps-are-working-class/
by Leroy on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Schnappi
Geez don’t tell me you were used as human guinea pigs by the Brit and Aus govmints ?
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Boerwar
All is revealed here http://www.itsanhonour.gov.au/honours/awards/wearing.cfm
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:52 pm
C@tmomma
What year were you competing at the state level?
by Dee on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:52 pm
Dee
Posts were mixed there ,anyway answer is at 2121
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Schnappi
Is this what you refer to?
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2007/s2071938.htm
by ruawake on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:54 pm
bemused
I’m all for encouraging school sports but they shouldn’t be compulsory.
And we should encourage them so our kids are healthier, not to make dickheads like Coates and Gosper feel better.
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:56 pm
bemused
I’m all for encouraging school sports but they shouldn’t be compulsory.
And we should encourage them so our kids are healthier, not to make d!ckheads like Coates and Gosper feel better.
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:57 pm
If only there was a reasonable rational reason like them being high. It is much much worse than that.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:57 pm
poroti
Many civilians ,besides service personal died from cancers at a disaportunate rate ,perhaps their families also got the medal sent to me as well.
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:58 pm
http://www.skynews.com.au/topstories/article.aspx?id=780478&vId=
More in the article. It’s Moylan. I wish her all the best, but I’m sure Abbott will find a way to say no to whatever is proposed regardless of what it is.
by Leroy on Aug 6, 2012 at 5:59 pm
ruawake
Spot on
Cannot wear it ,it is a medal(Medallion) in a little box
When some people die,one could assume just chucked in a box and disposed of like the glassware
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:02 pm
I drove past an office in Adelaide this afternoon and it had a big “Senator Mary-Jo Fisher” sign on it.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:04 pm
BK @ 2137,
Did you genuflect?
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Schnappi
I’m assuming you are not able to engage in discussions about your role at Maralinga??
by Dee on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:06 pm
ruawake.beorwar,poroti
The other thing about the medal ,it has no number ,no name on it,if stolen could be valuable some day as not many issued,my service medals all have name and number on them.
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:07 pm
I am thinking of ordering a chest full of medals from a supplier. If Idi could do it, why not moi?
How about a Bludger Medal of Honour, Second Class?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:07 pm
briefly @ 2082
I am not sure if you are being serious or not with that contribution as there is a tendency to try to push more and more onto schools and a reaction to resist.
I think kids should get educated in core subjects and I would include Mathematics, English, Science and Physical Education in that core.
There is opportunity within this core to include some of what you list e.g. English could include communication and presentation skills with the use of audio-visual aids just like I learnt English with textbooks, exercise book and pen.
Outside the core subjects kids should get to follow their particular interests, be it arts or sciences.
Good schools provide extra-curricular activities such as debating, chess, drama etc and all schools should aspire to become good schools and offer such activities.
I wish I had learnt music at school including learning an instrument. I am not sure where I would fit it in.
by bemused on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Schnappi
Stuff ‘em. Wear it anyway and wear it with pride.From the government’s “It’s an Honour” website you may be O.K. to wear it as they say about “Unofficial medals” the following. They say “ideally” well the world is not an ideal one.
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:08 pm
fiona
No – genufluct
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Dee
Not a problem as well documentated know,will say signed the crimes act 3 times in my career, but seems people like ashby /brough can do what I cannot do, and maybe he will get away with it
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:09 pm
bemused
There are some who would say you are a dab hand at beating a drum
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:10 pm
It seems like the Medallion was given to commemorate 50 years since the end of tests at Maralinga.
http://multimedia.aapnewswire.com.au/App_Themes/AapOneTheme/Images/Common/Spacer.gif
Howard was sacred shitless of admitting Australia did anything wrong – ever.
by ruawake on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Looks like the CLP will try to bring in the Fed in NT and Labor will stick to state stuff.
Abbott will campaign there but Gillard will not.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/breaking-news/writ-issued-for-aug-25-nt-election/story-e6frea7l-1226443750327
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 6:16 pm