Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
don,
TLBD,
Be very careful, sir – I’m in no mood for trifling tonight.
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:51 pm
I thought the past tenses of “to be” was:
I was
you were
he/she/it was
we were
they were
I used to be
you used to be
he/she/it used to be
we used to be
they used to be
and, in the perfect:
I have been
you have been
he/she/it has been
we have been
they have been
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:52 pm
2422
I am sure that Howard spells it incentivisation!
by Tom the first and best on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Is this Labor QandA ?
by rummel on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Q: Is Newman a template for Abbott?
The crowd going berserk at Brandis’ reply.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Brandis answers yes to Abbott is CanDo federally
by guytaur on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 pm
fiona,
I quite like trifle.
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Can’t see a problem with “elevator” for “lift”. Grain elevator? Common in Oz.
Same applies to trash, garbage and rubbish. Okay we might like to call it a “rubbish bin” but “trash can” or “garbage truck” (lorry) is okay with me.
We do not have a mortgage on “correct” English any more than the English themselves or the Americans.
That does not mean that we all find some usages are like the fingernails on the blackboard to cope with.
My personal bete noir is “buoy” which the Americans insist on calling “boo-ey”. This drives me to distraction. However, if I were in the States I would grit my teeth and say “boo-ey” just as I do with “zee” for “zed”.
by Tricot on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:54 pm
TLBD, Carey M,
WHY isn’t there a “blush” icon?
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:54 pm
What was the party distribution of the audience?
by Mod Lib on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:54 pm
So much for Qld being a LNP stronghold. Poll this crowd and you get a different result.
by guytaur on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:54 pm
r
I think people are waking up to the Coalition Autopilot:
(1) Suck up to the rich
(2) Screw the ordinary person
(3) Stick it to the unfortunate
(4) Root the environment
(5) Mobilize the xenophobes.
Plus Mr Brandis needs some more charismatic glasses.
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:55 pm
BK,
What did the SC have to say?
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:55 pm
If CanDo has a debt how come he can give $100 million to horse palaces?
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:56 pm
This little black duck
Especially when there is a bit of sherry soaked into the sponge cake at the bottom. Mmm
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Coates needs to tell the hockey teams, Diamond and Pearson to tank.
Clearly we need the draft picks.
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 pm
ducky
I forget what he said but it was very, very hollow.
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Make that:
(1) Dog whistle the xenophobes, the homophobes and the misogynists.
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Tricot,
I agree completely, but your argument supports – in my view – the importance of maintaining some degree of cultural diversity.
Just as, if in America, one refers to “sidewalk”, “faucet”, etc., and is very careful not to ask for a “rubber” unless one is quite sure what one expects.
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:57 pm
Modlib
I think there is just a lot of angry labor supporters looking down at 15 years of Abbott government.
by rummel on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:58 pm
He just can.
(Thanks, Tone).
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Think emmo likes katter
by Schnappi on Aug 6, 2012 at 9:59 pm
Exactly don.
The Correct English Police usually get up my nose as they more often than not display their general ignorance rather than knowledge.
I have no problems with following style manuals or an agreed approach to spelling or grammar but nobody has a mortgage on “correct” English these days. The language is just changing too quickly.
Think of the logic of PIN number – the acronym has become the noun but the noun contains the redundancy of “number” in it. Is this going to stop people asking for a “PIN number”? I think not.
by Tricot on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:00 pm
Not sure about 15 years, but a very long time anyway….Qlders like to change their minds, so who knows what will happen in a couple of elections’ time?
by Mod Lib on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:01 pm
Meanwhile in Oz, it does not play well to indicate that “you are rooting for someone”.
by bluegreen on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:01 pm
C’mon James, where are you mate?????
by Mod Lib on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:01 pm
CanDo abolished Boys Town?
Spencer Tracey would roll in his grave….
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:02 pm
BG,
It might depend on how that someone feels about you!
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:02 pm
Newspoll
54-46 2PP
Primaries: Coalition 45, ALP 33, Greens 10
Abbott: satisfied 32, dissatisfied 56
Gillard: satisfied 29, dissatisfied 59
Better PM: Abbott 38, Gillard 36
by James J on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Emo’s going to punch Brandis’ lights out!
by BK on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Bushfire Bill @ 2418:
“txtd” e.g. http://www.amazon.com/Txtd-FairyTails-Texted-Fairy-Tales/dp/1475184662
by Jaeger on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm
bg
There is the story, perhaps apocryphal, of the Aussie traveller who had a rather awkward moment when he ordered a tall black from a very large, tall black waitperson in an American cafe.
‘Say whut?’
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Is that the closest in a long time?
by bluegreen on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Thank you very much James!
by victoria on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm
bluegreen
asking for a fag may also cause concern
by poroti on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:04 pm
New thread
by Diogenes on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
fiona
I agree 100%. I am also for diversity and I respect American English in the US and certainly don’t try to lecture them on how they should use the language in their country.
As someone mentioned earlier Bill Bryson wrote a whole book on this topic and entertaining it was.
My OH and I – she off to the UK soon – were talking about whether the word Bogun would be recognised in the UK. I said I thought Chav was the equivalent.
Wiser ones than me may know but I certainly would not seek to correct an English person using Chav!
by Tricot on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
33 PV- The Newman effect?
by bluegreen on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
BK,
Good.
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Monday night BISONS
by rummel on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Awww status quo on Newspoll.
by confessions on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Onya James!
You deliver yet again!
by Mod Lib on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:06 pm
bg
The Greens have started polling around 10% from the 12% they got in the last election. The mass drownings effect. Plus the Newman effect. Plus the shooters in the NPs effect. Plus cattle in NPs effect. It is cumulative, IMHO.
by Boerwar on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:07 pm
2468
“Sidewalk” shows a an attitude prevalent in America (and some other places (particularly road authorities)) that they are just some afterthought on the side of the road. Footpath is descriptive as to function (and there are many in England, in particular, that are not on the side of the road) and pavement describes its method of construction.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:07 pm
I don’t really find people here using “faucet” or “sidewalk”. Rubber is 50-50 (I’ve found people nowadays prefer to use “eraser” but, as far as condoms are concerned, the term “rubber” isn’t really embraced.
The “rooting for someone” term is still obscure. I must confess I use the term, probably because I am not a fan of the other definition of root (I am not big on sexual euphemisms, especially weird ones. Just say “having sex”)
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:07 pm
BW,
On my first visit to America, I was in a cafe at Union Station in Washington DC. A lovely middle-aged African-American lady came to take my order. I stupidly asked for a flat white.
She said, “What, honey?”
I explained – apologising profusely – and was served an excellent milk coffee.
by fiona on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:08 pm
BobKat to ref Emmo v SC.
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:08 pm
confessions
Last Newspoll was 28% pv for Labor. This one is 33%. Not status quo at all
by victoria on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Grazie mille, James J!
by Carey Moore on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:09 pm
SC riding shotgun for Tone.
Go him, Emmo!
by This little black duck on Aug 6, 2012 at 10:10 pm