Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Google ‘olympics’ and ‘corruption’ and you get 92,000,000 hits.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Just in case you think it was fictional that there was leaking/venting against Rudd
No 1 Grattin July 2010
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/back-to-the-future-with-blame-game-20100715-10clh.html#ixzz22XqqX95a
by daretotread on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:54 pm
I have eyes with which to see, ears with which to listen and a mind that is open, momma…you have great zeal. I luv it.
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:55 pm
One wonders how long it will be until the on-line betting odds for lay-down-misere wins are matched against actual results.
Bookies hate it when favourites win. And many favourites did not win.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:55 pm
BW – Could I have an analysis of the 92,000,000 hits.
Seeing as you’re looking at them.
by CTar1 on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:55 pm
For those commenting on the AACo website, another good category to place your comment is under “Investor Relations”.
My contribution under that category is as follows:
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Self-evident. Why elsewould you get rid of a leader?
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm
I like this story as an example of why we should not piss half a billion dollars up the wall in the olympics, every again:
http://www.boxinginsider.com/more-headlines/raw-corruption-shows-self-at-olympics-after-10-million-bribe/
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:56 pm
CTar1
I like this one as well, as an another example of why we should never again piss away half a billion dollars on the Olympics. We obviously don’t dope enough:
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/08/01/sport/olympics-drugs-pound-shiwen/index.html
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Please tell me that this parasite (and dozens like him) don’t have their snouts so deep in the trough that non-achievers like his son can get a seat behind the Queen at the opening ceremony. But there he was.
This Olympic team would be THE worst prepared team ever to leave our shores. The swimmers, if they were even the right ones picked, were clearly months past their peaks. They were subjected to a media orgasm while the trials were on due to the intrusion of has-beens like Thorpe, Huegill, Trickett and Klim. They had so little focus that one stayed up most of the night tweeting before a final, another refused to shave (a distinct lack of attention to detail) before not one, but two, finals. Another was seen jumping around at the football while any dedicated swimmer would be 100% focussed on the upcoming event.
The rowers and cyclists were pimped as gold medal favorites in certain events but have been left in the dust and wakes of others. They are clearly talented so why are they so off their games? Preparation, anyone?
All this while we have convicted criminals picked and then being stupid enough to be photographed waving guns around. A rower being arrested in the act of doing something we can be guaranteed gold from, ie getting pissed and wrecking something. We had a boxer more concerned about his aboriginal flag than worrying about his next fight, a lesbian athlete demanding, not requesting, that a woman carry the flag. Then there was the shooter too lazy and stupid to get out of bed on time. And we aren’t even half way through this farce.
Before the government, Liberal or Labor, commits one more cent, they need to run a wire brush through these bludging blazer wearers and fuck them, and their sponging relatives, off. And then get some decent administrators who will bring some focus, discipline and a commitment to delivering performance and value for tax-papyter funding. Finally, they can get rid of these “former greats” who seem to infest every Olympics with their unwanted advice. Looking you, Fraser. You too, Lawrence.Your days in the sun are over. Either pay for the privelege and sit in the stands with everyone else or piss off.
by Roy Orbison on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:59 pm
C@catomma
Mequire was joking
I think if it had been so
The press would be all over it
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Raelene Boyle:
http://www.news.com.au/sport/london-olympics/olympic-drug-cheats-one-step-ahead-of-testers-says-raelene-boyle/story-fndpu6dv-1226428494533
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Roy
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:02 pm
The officials judges and like get dormatary accomadtion
And are not paid
Just thought i clear thatn one up.
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:03 pm
BB
The trick to find out how many pages on the internet are devoted to a particular keyword or phrase is to place the word/phrase in quotation marks. Without the quotation marks, you’re getting results for olympics corruption, olympics and corruption, which is why there are so many results.
With quotation marks, the phrase “olympics corruption” has 8,420 pages listed. Of course, they are the only ones Google has indexed, there could be a lot more that are not found in Google’s search results.
If they aren’t listed in Google though, no-one is ever going to see them.
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:04 pm
those speculating on who will be ALP leader at the next election can have a punt on SportsBet. Might be some value away from the favourites
13:30 | Australian Federal Election 2013/14
Kevin Rudd 1.90
Julia Gillard 2.10
Simon Crean 6.00
Stephen Smith 9.00
Bill Shorten 13.00
Wayne Swan 17.00
Bob Carr 21.00
Greg Combet 34.00
Anthony Albanese 126.00
Chris Bowen 151.00
Nicola Roxon 201.00
Peter Garrett 251.00
Kate Ellis 251.00
by sprocket_ on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Dan
Gosh its great to read all the contributions
Les hope there are thousands
Like this
If only
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:06 pm
RO
Just don’t give them a brass razoo of taxpayer’s money would do the trick nicely. It is not as if a hundredth of a second here or there has an iota of intrinsic value.
Some things I would prefer the half a billion dollars saved on the Olympics to be spent on:
(1) shortening operation queues
(2) getting rid of national weed problem
(3) completing a national housing program for Indigenous Australians
(4) bumping up the AUSAID budget, targetting assistance in particular to the poorest women in the 10 most poorest countries.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:07 pm
I am just shocked by the use of this term as a means of abuse or criticism of anyone, including the PM, Farley and anyone else. It belongs with all the other terms that substitute the feminine for the derogatory.
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Gee i said that today 500 billion my daughter said no ‘mum u must mean million.
Is there a link pls.
And in the mantime we dont have enough cardiac childrens specialist,
Here in aus,
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:11 pm
So if your not married or canmot have children
Thats what u are, to some
do u know there are males who cannot father children
And its a taboo subject stil’
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:13 pm
It is actually just short of $600 million
http://afr.com/p/lifestyle/sport/olympics/olympic_spend_vital_for_australian_JLXq7YGgFls1exHR89qgKO
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Mr Riley’s man at 250/1.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:13 pm
2
Posted by Patrick Bateman Jun2 23 2010
“This cryptofascist never bothered to build a base in the party, and now that his only faction – Newspoll – is gone, he’s buggered” – unnamed Labor insider quoted on ABC
No crrypto fscist is just a tad negative don’t you think
by daretotread on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Aussies were expected to spend around $2.5 billion celebrating medal wins in the London Olympics:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnclarke/2012/07/30/australians-to-spend-2-6-billion-celebrating-the-london-olympics/
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Ms Gillard appears to be shortening. Someone must have put a fiver on her. Not Mr Farley, would be my guess.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Boerwar,
Well, if they won’t give us medals then we won’t give them money.
The Brits and the Kiwis will more than make up for that. And Azerbaijan.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:18 pm
dtt
so, so far, you’ve not been able to come up with one direct quote from any Labor MP running Rudd down? You’d better keep googling.
by zoomster on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:19 pm
3. briefly,
June 24
Now why would Briefly quote that if there were not anti Rudd leaks
by daretotread on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:19 pm
And if you find nothing on Google you could try Bing, Yahoo, Copernic …
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Ddt
If u had other worries i doubt u bee thinking kr
Try this one
We need to see the baby catdiac specialist
He cancelled trip’here this month,’ dont know why,
So now we are desperately trying to get an appointment,
On the mainland, so fsr our emails and phone calls have not been returned.
Should we hop on plane and just turn up
No i dont tjink that would work
So we judt have to wait, my daighter is not happy with the baby at the moment
Is not sucking well
She is beside herself she just needs reassurance
There are cardiac dr. But not in enough in the area of children
Years ago a certain health minister cut places at uni,
I dont know if thats caused the problem
So we wait,
And all u can do is talk about 2010
Off now to just chat to daughter
i think he will be ok for now
But she needs reassurancd
Of course if u live in petth northern territoryits the same
And we spend 500 billion on sport.
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:22 pm
My way to use the spare $500 million?
Feral cat and cane toad erradication.
by Ian on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Roy, you write so well:
May I add…
You could tell this was going to be the Lurk-O-Lympics.
The amount of pure spin before the team even left was nauseating.
Urgers like Anthony McClennan (Ashby’s friend for hire: “We’re the reputation protection company”) and the rest of the useless endorsement-flogging spivs in the “PR” industry made it look like a misanthropic sexathon with a nepotism garnish.
AVOs were taken out, dummies spat, money changed hands before atheletes would commit to attending, TV commercials were made and broadcast pushing everything from bottled water to bank loans, parents in positions of power made sure their sweetlings were selected over better qualified (but sadly unconnected) competitors in areas of sport from archery to dressage, over-hyped swimmers declared their victories before they climbed into their Speedos and the now traditional leap-year self-congratulating rabble of television and radio “personalities” assuring us they were experts in sports they’d never bothered to attend before in their lives (Ray Hadley and Eddie Everywhere come to mind) turned up like the useless, over-paid, bloviating baggage they always have been, and remain.
Jingoism was laid on like fries with a McDonalds burger, sponsors declined to turn up to the best seats, forcing others to miss out altogether, and everywhere the sound of cash registers drowned out the efforts of the honest toilers who just wanted to celebrate their sport, whether they won, got a medal or even finished the race.
It was a classic case of shutting the gate before the horse had a chance to bolt, with the actual horse itself an optional extra. The Games, as far as the ponces who “sold” them to bored corporate sponsors and a gullible public, were over months ago. The races, jumps, dives and other sporting efforts of the competitors were irrelevant to the occasion. The money had already been paid, and spent.
When these same plonkers tell us that the next election is a virtual certainty, believe them about as much as you believe their Olympics spin and bullshit. Opinion polls don’t win elections, and neither do lies and deceit. Policy work, good outcomes, absence of laziness and proper costings win elections, not sleaze, scandal, phoney court cases and hype-driven media frenzies run out of malignant, jealous minds in New York.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:26 pm
My way is to have more trained baby specialits
Who are prepared to work only in the hospital situation
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:27 pm
DTt
Of your 3 pieces of evidence, two of them are PBer comments round June 2010?????
As for your No.1. Grattan’s article – there is a mention from Swan apparently that the “tone” had changed, that Evans was actually outlining his own failure as Immigration Minister. and a backbencher who threatened not to run again but did so.
And all Grattan keeps saying, without evidence, much like yourself, is that “Labor is raging against Rudd because it needs to and because it can.”
You’re going to have to do a lot better than that.
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:27 pm
http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/ftp/workpapr/g-168.pdf
Plenty of different opinions and studies but here is one which comes to the conclusion that the Sydney Olympics generated a net consumption loss of $2.1 billion.
In other words, if we paid the Olympic ‘movement’ $2 billion dollars every four years to stay away from Australia, we would still be well ahead.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:27 pm
by CTar1 on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Wel the state the uk is in financial ly will more poor buggers
Lose pension now
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Then, of course, we have the poor bastard who had to change his cafe’s name to lympics. Wonder how much the branding police were paid.
Well, in four years time the circus flies to Rio for a same old same old.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:32 pm
DTT
We still have not got one quote from a Labor MP being negative about Rudd. The rticle by Grattan is a classic 1500 words about “the rage” within the party but not one word of evidence. Her argument is that there is disunity in the party because I say there is.
by Oakeshott Country on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Kev-07 could take over from Coates and reform the Olympics.
by CTar1 on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:34 pm
I recall watching on TV many years ago I think it was Carl Lewis saying,
“I always train as a contender never as a champion, champions are conceited”
by Seasprite on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Mysay
I am truly sorry about your Grandson and hope you can see a specialist. Quite seriously you are excellent at contacting MPs etc – why not contact yours to see if you can get help.
May I suggest (and this is NOT about Ruddstoration) but he has a SPECIAL interest in children’s heart disease. Possibly he could take it up as a sort of constituent issue. Contact him and ask for help in getting a cardiac specialist to go to Tassie
by daretotread on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:36 pm
If you google economic value of the athens olympics then it appears to be at least reasonable to suppose that the Athens Olympics helped to topple an already-crippled Greek economy into full-scale crisis. A nation that was already broke spent somewhere between $15-32 billion on the Olympics.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/07/18/f-olympic-host-city-economy.html
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:37 pm
tlbd
If it ain’t on Google, it’s not likely to be on any of the others either.
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:38 pm
No-one leaked to me, dtt. I formed my conclusions about Rudd on the basis of what was plainly there for all to see.
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Furthermore,
Google can have something indexed within minutes of it being published. The others can take up to six months, and in some cases never. There is a reason why Google is the #1 search engine.
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Dan,
Don’t tell dtt! We have to keep it occupied.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:41 pm
BW@317
Any of those things you list would produce more benefit that what is spent on the Olympics. Doubtless, once could imagine others since the expenditure as it stands produces zero.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Naturally, there is plenty of corruption in trying to win the rights to stage the Olympic Games:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Olympic_Committee#Bidding_to_host_the_games
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 2:42 pm