Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
You know what? You Ruddists who get so uppity about any criticism of Rudd, why don’t you take a cue from Frank Calabrese: If you don’t like other people having opinions you don’t agree with and can’t help but get indignant and nasty, go start your own blog. Then you can ban everybody who dares question His mightiness until the cows come home.
Because, quite frankly, it is extremely exasperating to read you lot hijack this board with fanatical rubbish. I don’t care if you prefer Rudd. Feel free to talk about the prospect of his return, it’s topical (and probably inevitable) but stop carrying on like a bunch of spoiled little shits because somebody dares question your dogmatic view of the situation.
It’s always the same routine: One of you implies something foul of Gillard and/or a very whitewashing appraisal of Rudd.
Then somebody disagrees and says their reasons why that is not true. Inevitably, somebody says something negative about Rudd, so you lot then go into a frenzy, attack anybody who isn’t polishing Kevin’s pole and pepper it with ridiculous fallacies. After one goes on their fanatical tirade, the other pats that person on the arse and says something painfully tedious like “At least somebody here is talking sense, unlike the unhinged Rudd haters.” Oh and the other insufferable thing you lot do is, while you are hassling people for their opposing opinions, you are also whinging and moaning about the majority of PBers trying to silent dissenting views.
Don’t get me wrong, the Gillard camp can be annoying too but really, Kevin is not the progressive martyr you make him out to be. There is plenty to be argued that he is the only person who may win the next election for Labor (and I suggest you focus on that argument) but if you start playing up Rudd as some true blue progressive who spat in the face of political convention and has been nothing but an innocent victim of political circumstances and has not, himself, done anything slightly sly or sneaky, in order to manoeuvre himself politically, then don’t be shocked or outraged when somebody calls bullshit,
by Carey Moore on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:22 pm
confessions
Cannot say the 90′s because Tassie got its act together that decade eventually.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:23 pm
You were obviously on a hot date, it was all on TV.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:24 pm
guytaur:
Ah yes, of course.
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:26 pm
WeWantPaul
It was?
They had TVs in Rudd’s office?
Good. Link us to the footage. It will solve quite a few disputes here about what happened.
by zoomster on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Will be great to see the sour disposition of the like of the Rev Fred Nile and Senator Heffernan.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Experience for New York shows Same Sex Marriage is a good tourism initiative. So not only good for Tasmanian’s and Australia’s equality, but also good for Tasmania’s economy.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:30 pm
guytaur:
From memory WA equalised the age of consent for same sex couples to that of hetero couples in 2001 or 2002 – someone pls correct me if I’ve got that wrong.
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:30 pm
confessions
NSW still has not done that. I think Tasmania leads in all areas there now. NSW has had the roadblock of the religious stopping a lot of equality measures.
Do not expect any movement under the LNP of course.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Yeah I think the levels of denial and stupidity would easily overcome even actual in the room footage. What was on TV was very clear, very explicit and very credible.
by WeWantPaul on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:33 pm
And Erica Betz. This is happening in his home state after all.
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:33 pm
kezza2 368
Agree with your comments about the NBN. I think hostility to the NBN plays a big part in the media’s hostility toward Labor. Because it threatens pretty much everyone’s bottom line or established way of doing things. Far, far better to kill it off or have it sold to the present players in manageable chunks.
by BSA Bob on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:33 pm
confessions
True true. I tend not to think of him. Makes me shudder. At least Nile is honest in his hate. Less like the snake oil salesman.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Diogenes – You make an interesting point about the sports that Australia plays.
Believe I touch on the sport side of things, the media coverage as also shown just as simple our media is for they clearly just presumed because Australians play and like sport that we would win heaps of medals.
As much as Bruce Special McAvaney can be painful during the footy but at least when it comes to athletics he knows his stuff and therefore is across all the major competitors.
Therefore he never allows his focus to be just on the Aussies, yet someone like James Brawshaw covering the rowing, now he may be a rowing fan but he is usually a footy commentator and it seems that he doesn’t have a great depth of knowledge of all the competitors.
Same applies to Ray Hadley, he doesn’t seem to have much clue about the world of swimming and at times it appears that he isn’t even watching the race.
The result of this and we see it in the media coverage of politics and business, a lack of knowledge and experience therefore they need to focus on the non sport side of things and need to create mountains out of mollhills.
Regarding the team performance, this country had a very strong swimming team and as with any successful sport team or any other organization, when key people retire there is a time of rebuilding.
In truth we have not performed as poorly as it looks but if we don’t do better in Rio then that is a real concern.
You mention sports Australia and yes Australian do focus on sports that not in the games like footy, cricket and netball and in the team sports that we are doing well in like Hockey and Basketball do have solid local comps.
I think we should be encouraging more sport as part of a healthy education.
Side story, I was talking to a chinese person that said that he was happy his children were here rather than in China for they are expected from a young age to take up a sport and it becomes like a full time occupation.
Now I don’t think we need to go to that extent but it is interesting that some countries put such a strong focus on winning yet we are considered a sporting nation.
The other thing that is overlooked, traditionally the host country tend to outperform their usual medal telly and we are seeing that in London.
Overall we have been competitive without winning, that sometimes happens.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:34 pm
guytaur:
I had no idea the laws hadn’t been changed in NSW!
ANd am I correct in assuming that unlike when the ACT and NT parliaments pass laws, the federal parliament cannot overturn legislation enacted by states?
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:36 pm
This little black duck
Samaranch cannot be beat.You might like these fetching photos of Samaranch and Franco. The first being signing his alleigance to the old bastard when he was made minister in the government.
http://www.transparencyinsport.org/The_IOCs_Favourite_Fascist/Images-the_IOCs_favourite_fascist(page1)/(5)samaranch-kneeling-franco1967(full).jpg
http://www.transparencyinsport.org/The_IOCs_Favourite_Fascist/Images-the_IOCs_favourite_fascist(page1)/(4)samaranch-franco-handshake-1(full).jpg
by poroti on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:37 pm
by lizzie on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Whoever contends that is either delusional, an outright liar or lived with their head in the sand. The slagging of Rudd got under fairly quickly, and of course we had our own little hack slagging Rudd to death hear immediately.
Yes the plan was to legitimise Gillard’s knifing Rudd by character assassinating Rudd. That is ALL the reason they could work up, since Rudd WAS doing fairly OK as PM and especially so as a first term PM producing one of the best GFC responses about.
Didn’t take long for PBs to pick up the change in tune – one day supporters of Rudd and all his doings to suddenly saying he was …well bad at everything…and as time went on so to was he elevated to even more evilness. And the more Gillard failed the more did the hatred of Rudd grown.
It was very very clear here that hatred of Rudd was and is directly proportional to how Gillard is doing. The worse she does the more unprovoked attacks their are on Rudd.
Pretty sad when the only way you can support and add any legitimacy to Gillard is by character assassinating another person. The young Libs have nothing on some here.
by Thomas. Paine. on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:40 pm
confessions
This Press release deals with that.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:40 pm
But does it? Will it mean that a couple who marry in Tasmania will have their marriage legally recognised if they move to Victoria or Qld?
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:43 pm
TP – I understand where you are coming from but if we look back to 2010 there were many stories in the press about issues surrounding Rudd office.
Many of those stories were dismissed, Rudd himself as never come out and attacks the claims made about how his office performed unless it hasn’t been reported.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:43 pm
One of the holes in participation in community sport seems to be with people from 17-25 who are not “jocks”. Up until then you can generally find a spot for your kids in a local team in at least the major sports (though cricket gets a little tricky post-15 years of age).
After that your 17-18 year old either has to be a pretty seriously skilled player (in which case he or she goes into a graded team) or join a team of under 21s or more because too few people of that age who are not really competitive will play. Most of them have found other stuff to do. That can be fairly challenging in contact sports because there is quite a difference between a typical 21-year-old and a typical 17- year-old.
I’m not entirely sure what the answer is here. Maybe we need funding for scaled down six-a-side type teams for late adolescents who would like a regular pick up game once or twice each week. Maybe the answer is to go to more individual things like gym or tai chi or something similar.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Schnappi @3 & @4 re Mars/JPL etc (just started browsing posts)
Just so you don’t feel left out – The Grim Family is also struck by Curiosity, especially the novel way of landing (the videos on the topic are great to watch). A few years back, we all donated to the Planetary Society & got our names on a plate for one of the Martian landers (Phoenix I think).
This topics not strictly political, so I’ll try a little segue…. I find these types of missions very inspirational, in fact I once wanted to be a xeno-biologist when I grew up (still hoping). I wonder whether conservatives aspire to such things, or is just not in their DNA to imagine a way of life better than their own blinkered existence?
by GrimTidings on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Wouldn’t it be more effective for Tassie to just pass a bill that could be repealed if Canberra passes a similar bill in future. I cannot see Canberra enacting SSM anytime soon.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:45 pm
confessions
We need legal eagle advice. Going from the press release and Prof George Williams comments I guess at yes. However could be horribly wrong.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:47 pm
confessions
I think Lara Giddings as Premier and other smart people like Senator Wong would not be behind this if it was doomed to fail. So I think it is going to open up an interesting legal debate that might end up in the High Court.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Fran
The answer is a difficult one for there are already many demands on education and the balance between the demands is diverse, another factor making this harder is the increasing obsession with performance grading of teachers for I think a true test of a good education isn’t what the kid can necessary do at 15 but what he/she is doing at 30.
I know in Melbourne most junior clubs pick up their players from the local primary schools that then feed into the local footy side but as you say only those that are highly skilled or committed are able to carry on with a full footy career, even at local level.
I think even as a nation more can be done to encourage a healthy lifestyle though exercise but this does seem to get lost as the focus does turn more toward having to follow the going to Uni or Tafe pathway.
But most sports do welcome new players but the person still needs to have the motivation to turn up and do what ever training is done and most sports clubs are volunteer run which is why more funding is needed at the grass roots level rather than just the eltle level.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 4, 2012 at 3:58 pm
@RupertMurdochPR: Interviewing potential body doubles to serve time for me in prison, should it come to that. Some passable, they’re just all so old.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:02 pm
MexicanBeemer:
That has not been my experience. No2 sone was very keen to play cricket in the summer but from the time he was 15 he was unable to join a team either because he wasn’t skilled enough or because the established teams were already full. Soccer was OK until about 16 years of age but after that there simply wasn’t an available spot (even in under 21s — he’s currently 19) anywhere within about 10kms of home or on the main train line. We take him along with us to the gym to keep fit but I know he’d like a more social experience in physical recreation.
If this is the case in a relatively well-resourced precinct of a major city, I daresay things would be tougher yet on the urban fringes or in regional and remote areas.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:09 pm
@AdamBoland7: Tasmania’s Premier Lara Giddings will explain her historic move on Weekend Sunrise tomorrow at 8:10am. #marriageequality
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Franb
anywhere within 10 kms of home! And I think our club – 15 k away – is so close!
by zoomster on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:10 pm
guytaur:
Will be interested to see how the federal govt responds.
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:11 pm
I politely request that those posting about Mr Rudd v Ms Gillard put ‘Mr Rudd v Ms Gillard’ in a headline – or perhaps variations of same, allowing for creativity, values and principles of the poster.
Anything that gives an inkling would do.
That way, those who enjoy those kinds of posts can scroll past all the other irrelevant posts. OTOH, those wishing to engage on topics relating to the rest of the known universe can scroll efficiently past ‘Mr Rudd v Ms Gillard.’
Think of it as Bludgers’ contribution to improving Australia’s productivity.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Some thoughtful, balanced comments at the Daily Telegraph, on the “Old Cow” story:
I especially like the comment (#10 of 12) that says she’s always calling people names, so deserves all the names she is called in return.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:15 pm
http://www.foodplantsinternational.com/FoodPlantsInternational/Home.html
Welcome to the Food Plants International web site.
Here you will find the world’s largest database of edible food plants, containing useful information on over 18,000 food plants. Food Plants International (FPI) is a not-for-profit organization that aims to provide information about edible plants with the objective of ‘Helping the Hungry Feed Themselves’.
Some 3 billion people in the world live outside th
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:23 pm
@DarcyCouncillor: Viva la revolution “@ChallengeMagAUS: Tas Labor conf passes rule change to allow the direct election of the State Leader by party members
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Just got a call from Newspoll!
by MTBW on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:30 pm
@mishaschubert: Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings: ‘‘the time has come to act decisively on this issue.” #gaymarriage
@mishaschubert: Giddings: 11 countries now recognise same sex marriage, plus states in Mexico and the US, so there is precedent for Tas state law.
@mishaschubert: Giddings: “There will always be excuses, arguments and questions of timing when moving on difficult and controversial issues.” #gaymarriage
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:33 pm
So Mr Newman wants the Feds to cough up $40 million for flood protection works and Ms Giddings wants the Feds to cough up $50 million to stop work in native forests.
Same same.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Crowd? About non-existent. The AFL is looking for gold in places there isn’t any (a bit like our Olympic team). Western Sydney, whatever it is, is not the future for the AFL. Some time down the track and uncountable millions of dollars later, they are going to have to swallow their pride and move this team to Canberra, or Newcastle, or Darwin. or anywhere that has a pulse in terms of interest. Because there isn’t in Parramatta or Blacktown or Liverpool and there sure as hell isn’t any at Homebush.
The Swans are really only a niche market in Sydney. They have a core following of around thirty thousand and can parlay that into some decent sponsorship etc but GWS is a pipedream. So is Gold Coast, really, but they are in a better situation.
The AFL does get big crowds but the NRL has just about reached that aim where just about every game is unpredictable and “on any given Sunday” is very much a fact. Actually, with four rounds to go, while there are teams in better shape than others, it would not be a major surprise to see any of eleven or twelve teams win it all. The AFL has way too many one sided thrashings that can be seen coming months in advance.
by Roy Orbison on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Fran
For you son,I suggest expanding the thinking from sport to recreation. What your son is doing, imo, is getting into the recreation pursuits he, and by influence maybe his kids, will be in for most of his life. There is a lot more out there than competitive sports or competitive activities.
Things he can consider. Does he want competition, if so as a team or individual? Does he want to do a non-competitive group activity (outdoor recreation bushwalking, canoeing) or a solo activity in a group (rock-climbing, golf, archery.) Or a different hobby, photography, chess, fishing etc.
Another way is to look at niche sports which are losing players to the big ones, and need recruits.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:36 pm
BB,
I’m quite sure that “DT’ does not take “moderation” to mean what sane people do.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Gillard Vs JWH……
Howard would still be PM. Labor has a lot to thank Keven for and should reframe from the character assassination undertaken by all those in Team Gillard.
Its rather boring this constant pro Gillard bluster.
by rummel on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:37 pm
@mishaschubert: Lara Giddings: “But … there comes a time when no amount of excuses should stand in the way of doing what is right.” #gaymarriage
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Pretty sure Port Power will have a new coach next week.
by Diogenes on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Good on Lara Giddings a gutsy move!
Rummel @ 442
I am with you!
by MTBW on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:47 pm
n Australia aren’t in the Olympics except soccer and who gives a $hit about an under 23 soccer team.
The money should be going to grass roots sports that people esp kids actually play.
DIO POSTED.
Well really , soccer here is bigger in school s hrrr than football.
So whats wronng with aiyring to’an under 23 soccer team, what sport do your boys play. Our played hockey, and we know about 5 who went to the olympics.
From here,
The other thing did u re inform your friend that the labor gov actually increased spending on sport,
This seems to be rumour and gossip that is out there
The other day it was posted her e,
Frankly i do t care what sport the childrrn play,’it keps them healthy gives them more friends keeps them off the street.
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Does anyone know if Labor have preselected a candidate for Hasluck?
William? Confessions? Poroti?
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:48 pm
@AlexGreenwich: #marriageequality could hit Australian soil as soon as this year http://t.co/r7EQW2ux
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:49 pm
with aiyring to’an, aspiring
by my say on Aug 4, 2012 at 4:49 pm