Seat of the week: Braddon
UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition two-party lead up from 55-45 to 56-44, although nothing has changed on the primary vote: 33% for Labor, 49% for the Coalition and 10% for the Greens. Further questions relate to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, which party has the better policies for various groups of disadvantaged people (Labor comfortably ahead in each case), and the Olympic Games (among other things, 58% think $39 million of government spending per gold medal too much).
To commemorate the occasion of Mark Riley’s report on alleged Labor internal polling, we visit the scene of what would, assuming the poll to be authentic, be its biggest surprise: Tasmania, where Labor is said to be looking at a devastating swing and the loss of all four of its seats.
The hook for Riley’s report on Channel Seven was that Tasmania was among four states and territories where Labor was set to be wiped out, the others being Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory. The first did not come as a surprise, as the picture of a 9% swing taking all in its path is entirely familiar from state-level breakdowns from Newspoll and Nielsen and Queensland-specific polling from Galaxy. However, the implied swing in Western Australia of 6%, as would be required to knock over Stephen Smith in Perth and Melissa Parke in Fremantle, is at odds with Newspoll, which has showed Labor holding its ground: 57-43 in October-December, 54-46 in January-March and 55-45 in April-June, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election. Riley’s numbers do accord with Nielsen, whose last three monthly results for WA average to 62-38. However, even after combining three polls their sample is a very modest 390 (with a margin of error of about 5%), compared with about 900 (margin of error about 3.4%) for Newspoll.
In the case of Tasmania, together with the Northern Territory (where Labor is in danger of losing Warren Snowdon’s seat of Lingiari), no such basis for comparison is available. The state is excluded from Newspoll and Nielsen’s breakdowns for inadequate sample sizes, and the state’s one public pollster, EMRS, usually contents itself with state politics. In relating that Labor faced a two-party deficit of 56-44, the Riley report thus presumed to tell us something we didn’t already know – and quite a remarkable thing at that, given that the last election gave the Liberals their worst result in Tasmania since the modern party was founded in 1944 (33.6% on the primary vote and 39.4% on two-party preferred).
It hadn’t always been thus. At the consecutive elections of 1975, 1977, 1980, 1983 and 1984, it was not Labor but the Liberals who enjoyed clean sweeps of the state’s five seats. Certainly the state has form in turning on Labor over environmental controversies, the Franklin Dam issue of the early 1980s and Mark Latham’s forestry policy at the 2004 election being the cases in point. It could be that the another environmental issue, the carbon tax, has alienated Labor from the blue-collar base that sustains it outside of Hobart. While it seems hard to believe that this alienation could be so fierce as to power a swing of 17%, it should be remembered that the 2010 result forms an artificially high base, owing to a half-hearted campaign waged by a Liberal Party that had its strategic eye elsewhere.
The most marginal of the five seats, Bass, was dealt with in an earlier post, so today naturally enough we move on to the second, its western neighbour Braddon. Confusingly known before 1955 as Darwin, Braddon covers the north-western coastal areas of Tasmania, plus King Island in the Bass Strait. The redistribution before the 2010 election extended the electorate along the full length of the thinly populated west coast, which benefited Labor by adding the mining towns around Queenstown. The dominant population centres are Devonport and Burnie, which respectively supply about 25% and 18% of the voters.
Demographically, Braddon is distinguished by the lowest proportion of residents who completed high school of any electorate in Australia (and, relatedly, the eleventh lowest median family income), and it ranks second only to neighbouring Lyons as the electorate with the smallest proportion of non-English speakers. The timber and mining industries that have traditionally provided a solid base for Labor are balanced by beef and dairy farming, which contribute to a more conservative lean in the western parts around Smithton. Labor’s strongest area is Burnie, although Devonport also traditionally leans its way.
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Categories: Federal Election 2013, Federal Politics 2010-
Take it from me, one of the worst afflictions is having a photographic memory.
You feel as if you’re a cheat.
You spend you’re life defending yourself.
You take to substances that will stop it.
You give up.
Then you hide behind an alias online.
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:40 pm
GG
That is why I am rapt that the West is burning and much of the best US cropland is cooking crops to death.
by Boerwar on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Fran Barlow@485,
http://www.avf.org.au/
by C@tmomma on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:41 pm
kezza
So no becoming a police detective as in “Unforgettable”?
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:42 pm
@ 500
obviously the second you’re = your
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Roy Orbison,
Isn’t 6000 to a game a thing of joy and beauty for the AFL. I remember addng up all the attendances to a League game round once and found it was less than the 80,000 that attended one AFL game. League also has all those suburban grounds that 6000 would be a sell out.
It’s like the two shoe salesmen who go to Fiji to investigate the potential market. One writes back that prospects are grim because no one wears shoes. The other reports back that prospects are great because no one wears shoes.
Geelong winning last night wall allegedly unpredictable as was Carlton last week. I don’t think your argument washes. I reckon betting on things that talk is folly.
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm
fran
If your son ends up as a referee at the World Cup, I expect tickets, in true international sporting kick-back tradition.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:43 pm
Sorry, I don’t understand what you mean.
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:45 pm
kezza
Ah. You have not seen it. It is one of the better of a crop of cop shows of the CSI vein of shows from the States.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:48 pm
kezza
The main character has a photographic memory and is what the whole show revolves around.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Boerwar,
I come to Poll Bludger for the light relief.
by C@tmomma on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Funnily enough, my post listing Gillard-hating comments re. “Cow Gate”, was itself [ut into moderation here!
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:53 pm
First the pigs, and now birds at a Tasmanian zoo.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-04/dozens-of-animals-let-loose-during-zoo-break-in/4176848
WTF is wrong with people!
by confessions on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:54 pm
kezza2,
I have a photographic memory too. I learnt to embrace it and exploited it at Uni by being able to memorise my work, pass my exams AND have a social life.
by C@tmomma on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Lara can leave her hat on.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Shallow comment #514?
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm
The gift that keeps on giving.
Did you really think that 20,000 people would say thank you Mr Premier Sir?
by ruawake on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:57 pm
Boerwar @ 367
That may eventually come to pass if something doesn’t change regarding the cost etc. I understand only 3 cities are bidding for the 2020 games – Madrid (can’t see how they can afford them unless the Spanish economy goes gangbusters before then); Istanbul (don’t know enough about the Turkish economy to comment); and Tokyo (well the Japanese economy seems to have been in the doldrums for as far back as I can remember).
Perhaps cities are waking up to the fact that it has become too much of an extravaganza and an eventual drain on both the city and the country’s economy that it’s not worth while.
Perhaps a return to Athens permanently with countries chipping in to defray the costs?
It’s certainly come a long way from de Coubertin’s concept and the early years when you could just turn up for an event and try your luck. Now we have competitors who include a Qatari (?) billionaire and tennis and basketball players who have earned millions. Not to mention swimmers who seem to have earned a small fortune in advertising endorsements purely on the strength of a win prior to the Games and their “looks”, eg Magnussen.
Haven’t seen many advertising endorsements for Matthew Mitchum, who won his medal based on a world record dive – but then he’s openly gay so he wouldn’t attract the customers.
Mind you even the original games were not without controversy. Didn’t Nero win a few laurel wreaths for his poetry?
by Allan Moyes on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:58 pm
guytar
How very interesting.
I’ll have to watch it.
But if it is not true to life, then maybe thy should have consulted me.
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:59 pm
Wow, that’s impressive C@tmomma. A nice contrast to many here who seem to have very short term memories
by Carey Moore on Aug 4, 2012 at 5:59 pm
i bet it was a green group aka CSIRO style. Disagree with it so they destroy it…….
by rummel on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:00 pm
C@tmomma,
Very encouraging. Thanks.
by This little black duck on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:01 pm
I doubt green groups would pull the heads off parrots, release them in a misguided attempt to improve their lives? Yes. But these birds seem to have been butchered.
by ruawake on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Rua, guytaur and others, I’d love to be proved wrong but i think George Williams is talking crap on this one about State Marriage Acts – by which I mean, I think the Cth legislation is within power and invalidates anything more expansive at state level via s. 109 of the Constitution
The stuff people have raised about inconsistent State regimes refusing to recognise each other is just one reason why I think the HC would stay orthodox on this and endorse Cth supremacy.
Like I say, would like to be proved wrong. The current HC is actually far more well informed on gay rights issues than the average member of the public; but whatever shock jocks might say they dont just get to make the law up as they please as they go …
by Marrickville Mauler on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Never a truer word spoken
@C_L02: The possibility of Barnaby Joyce ever becoming Deputy PM should be enough to discourage anyone voting for the LNP. http://t.co/jgjksZjy
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:04 pm
@ C@t
If only I’d learned, or been taught, to exploit photographic memory when I was young.
Unfortunately I grew up in a family where the boys were paramount and the girls were nothing except for their tantalising sexual gifts.
by kezza2 on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:05 pm
rummel,
CSIRO style?
Please explain.
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm
@denniallen: @watermelon_man …..He wont be able 2/Feds cant override State legis’n/although I’m sure Abbott will do his sneaky best/IF he get 2 B PM
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Or he was taken out of context? Marriage is a Commonwealth Power.
by ruawake on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:06 pm
mauler
My suspicion was that you are right. However I am sure that Premier Giddings and team have consulted more than just Prof George Williams. This is why I think Prof Williams may be right.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:08 pm
george’s latest.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/64041833@N04/7708923144/in/photostream
by BK on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:09 pm
mauler
Of course it could just be one great big bluff to get Mr Abbott to stop blocking SSM legislation federally. All of this is then moot when that happens and Federal Parliament passes Mr Jones legislation.
by guytaur on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:10 pm
The highly credentialed, ubiquitous Eddie Bloody McGuire is now commentating the triathlon.
Give us a break!
by BK on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:13 pm
Bronny Bishop as Speaker is just as spooky.
by dave on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:13 pm
The best thing about Unforgetable is that the lead actress is an Aussie
by davidwh on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:14 pm
A MUST READ.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-04/australia-leads-global-charge-on-mining-returns/4176752
No wonder they want to “Ditch the Witch”.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Well, no major “scandals” unless you count:
* The 20 year old Gillard “Love Nest” rehash by The Australian,
* Bill Shorten’s Pie,
* Swan’s “The Boss” metaphor
* Mark Riley’s “September 8… Day Of Destiny” story about Ruddstoration
* Carney’s theory that nobody’s listeni…. yawn… (sorry fell asleep)..ng to Gillard,
* Julia’s going on holidays when there are catastrophes of her making to be fixed,
* Something to do with being too accommodating to the Chinese, contra Abbott,
* Something else re. Gonski,
* Labor “muck rakers” picking on poor Mal Brough and James “Twinky” Ashby,
* Are we still borrowing $100 million a day?
* Did we fund the Games well enough to win gold medals?
* What was that about the NDIS” (forgotten now… Oh that’s right, they caved)
* Orgill’s got something to do with the NBN,
* And of course the fix was in on IR in the FWA Report.
A pretty ho-hum bunch of debacles for a Newspoll Weekend, don’t youse think?
Maybe they’re testing the system, putting in a “control” poll to see what happens when they don’t tell us the Earth is falling and cities will be wiped off the map?
Always helps to know what happens when you don’t try to rig the game.
Scientific Method, I call it.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:16 pm
MM
I think you’re quite correct re s 109.
The only way a state could legislate SM contrary to the C’w legislation would be to successfully argue in the inevitable HC challenge that they were legislating about something other than marriage ……. pretty fanciful, especially if the state legislation mentioned the words “same sex marriage” or WTTE.
Anyway, the s109 words “to the extent of the inconsistency be invalid” appear to me and seemingly to you too to rule out any state attempt.
by psyclaw on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm
and more…
I bet there is.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Jeebus,
What have we started…
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:21 pm
BK
At the opening ceremony, Maguire was calling the brass band playing with the LSO the “grim”-thorpe colliery band (“grime” is correct)
And wasn’t Ray Warren a laugh in one of the lady swimming fianls in which one contestant was a lady London cop. Ray Warren “and coming last at the turn is the policeMAN”.
by psyclaw on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:21 pm
GG
Two women who broke into CSIRO and destroyed a research crop of genetically-modified wheat with whipper-snippers have cost Greenpeace more than $280,000, a court has heard.
And the ACT Supreme Court heard the women should be given a jail sentence for the publicity stunt in July last year.
NSW women Jessa Latona, 35, and Heather McCabe, 48, pleaded guilty to one charge of damaging or destroying Commonwealth property.
Read more: http://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/greenpeace-activists-in-costly-gm-protest-20120802-23i0t.html#ixzz22Z1XMuk5
by rummel on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:22 pm
I hope the correct quote was “Suck it up, princesses”.
by Diogenes on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:22 pm
BB
Are you reading this? And we wonder why they want PM Gillard GORN!
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:22 pm
I have had the experience of once having had a brilliant memory, then, due to a protracted illness, losing a lot of my cognitive capacities, including having badly impaired memory functions. And then, some years on, having the chance to to rebuild all these things. I can’t tell you how very troubling is to to know you are losing your mind – to feel overwhelmed by even simple problems and to know that estimations of one’s self, of reality and everything one believes are most likely all wrong – and then how very gratifying it is to regain the capacity to read and write, to speak logically, able to order one’s thoughts and to think logically again and have memories of even the trivial.
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:23 pm
BB @ 536
Yep …. and all you have listed is merely the last week’s offerings.
Wish you’d do a list for the period August 2010 till today…… easy if you’ve got a few weeks spare.
Such a list would be the biggest load of word shite ever assembled.
by psyclaw on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:25 pm
He is right. Jurisdiction is shared, having been transferred to the Commonwealth by the States, with the exception of WA, which retained its own Act and, I believe, Family Court.
by briefly on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:26 pm
Dio
We actually sent people to Africa with $$$ and advice on setting up their own MRRTs.
Get that last sentence. And the ‘no media attention’ one.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Postscript to Woodchopping story.
Son #1 is now obsessed with the fact that one shoulder is ‘more developed’ than the other.
Sigh. Explained differential development due to favouring one side over the other as a result of the way you chop the wood. Also, body asymmetry. Answer from bright spark, “I’ll figure out a way to make them equal then.” “Good luck with that”, I said.
by C@tmomma on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Rumme,
So you conflate the notion of breaking in to a glass house and murdering a crop of glorified bread crumbs with vandals breaking in and slaughtering some animals at a zoo.
Only in your mind.
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 4, 2012 at 6:28 pm