Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Darn
The battle Abbott and his cronies have won so far is the Short term crowing that the Houston report has recommended Nauru as part of its deterrence policy
by victoria on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:35 pm
victoria @ 1555
The French ‘helped out’ – they sent Police to man Garavan railway station to man the frontier and repel the invaders coming from Venti (nothing new about that).
Don’t think they actually did anything other than look like French Police do when they’re in groups – something to avoid!
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:35 pm
]‘Keating is becoming more and more inclined to want to lecture the modern Labor party about what they ought to be doing’]
Maybe because it is becoming difficult to tell the difference between Abbott Gillard and Howard.
You know how morally corrupted a party has become when one its former leading lights and heroes suddenly is denigrated and considered irrelevant. Whitlam better shut his mouth otherwise he will cop the same.
by Thomas. Paine. on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:36 pm
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/12/1119510/-PANIC-MSM-Romney-is-in-Big-Big-Trouble
by Leroy on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Ms Hanson-Young being interviewed on Sky.
She is now in Greens’ policy nirvana – all talk and no possible action for which she will be held accountable.
by Boerwar on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:38 pm
CTar1
Yes the French did not want them either!
by victoria on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:39 pm
‘Pulling the plug on grandma’ has a certain sort of core message about it;
like ‘Stop the Boats’.
by Boerwar on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:39 pm
by Leroy on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Psephos
what makes you think doing a PhD doesn’t make you a redneck? Keith Windshuttle, Samuel Huntington and you sound like you’d get on like a house on fire given your attitudes on race and raving xenophobia exhibited in your letter to Manne. IMPO your attitude is everything that is wrong with the Labor right’s position on AS – i.e. ‘we must follow the redneck vote’. What’s the point of winning power if you are going to behave like the libs anyhow? point to one instance where labor has tried to articulate the case for a humane AS policy. this latest ‘concern’ over people drowning is bullshit from abbott, and it is BS from labor too.
by sustainable future on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:40 pm
sf
We had one Greens poster here suggest that Australia should take 200,000 refugees a year.
Any advance on that?
by Boerwar on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:42 pm
1480 Ian
You still have a magic way with words, Ian. My appreciation probably flows from fully agreeing with you.
Perhaps a side-benefit, which may not occur in the short term, is the differentiation this gives the government from the Greens. This is important in winning back those centrist voters who believe half the media crap that Labor is captive to the Greens.
I still believe the coalition primary of around 49% is somewhere about 5-7 points above where is should normally sit. That is partly a consequence of the coalition scare campaign and partly media misconceptions, some of which include that Greens notion.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Tony Abbott, if he thinks he has a win on the asylum seeker issue, should be reminded of the old saying:
Mind you, he also lies out of bed.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:43 pm
No he didn’t reply.
I specifically said in the letter that I favour a multicultural and multiracial Australia, so kindly don’t misrepresent my position.
by Psephos on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Diogenes
Assuming as I do that the proposal passes, he has an enormous professional investment in making it work. I find it hard to see how it can seriously abate IMPs and by extension, deaths at sea, but the increase in the numbers and I assume, the extra focus on rapid processing may change the numbers — he cited 20% — choosing that option.
I’m also unclear how in practice they can meet the “no advantage” standard of the report. Presumably, they are against prolonged administrative detention — which would be expensive, likely to produce serious and widespread harm including on children who realistically are simply following their parents — and he wouldn’t want his name on that. If they can process those in the camps within 90 days, using some sort of triage method and give others the idea that within 120-150 days they’d be processed too, then perhaps 180 on Nauru or Manus might meet the test and not run serious risks of psychological harm. AIUI, it’s not the time one spends in detention per se that is harmful but the sense that there is no definite timeline for release that does the harm.
Much is going to depend on how well provisioned Nauru and Manus are. If they are relatively comfortable and the resuidents see it as a short stay then it’s conceivable that it might put a dent in IMPs of the 20% claimed.
I still really hate the idea of forcibly detaining people who have committed no crime, merely so as to punish their desire to escape unhealthy life circumstances. Paris Aristotle is probably well-intentioned. He probably thinks this is about as good as it can get in the current political context. He may well be right. 2001 changed everything for the worse. Regrettably, if this fails the standard of “stopping the boats” (and 20% won’t be close to enough) he will inevitably be tainted and his ability to do good work diminished — yet that is not really what he ought to be primarily concerned about.
If it “succeeds” (i.e. it cuts them by about 80%) then the precedent is set. Punitive measures, administrative detention for its own sake will be set in stone, possibly for a generation. Eventually people will be shunted off to Malaysia to who knows what fate. Mr Aristotle will bear some responsibility for that and for all of the negative consequences. I daresay that in his private moments, he won’t be too happy about that either.
Apart from the politics of the matter, I can’t see what the problem is with simply bringing them here at an accelerated rate, processing them quickly in the major cities and qualifying them for resettlement here or some place else.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:45 pm
@CliveFPalmer: Cruel policy from @juliaGillard to shunt poor souls who arrive on our shores off to Nauru and Manos Island? Should process here #auspol
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:50 pm
But you and your ilk will bear a greater responsibility, firstly for encouraging these people to attempt to come to Australia, and secondly for impeding sensible policy responses.
by Psephos on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:50 pm
The AS debate will be playing second fiddle to this news. Ridge Forrester is to be seen no more on the Bold and the Beautiful.
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/bold-move-as-ridge-storms-out-for-final-time-20120814-245co.html
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:51 pm
It is not the length of time a person spends in detention that causes mental health issues, it is the uncertainty of not knowing how long the detention will be.
It is mentally easier to know you will spend 5 years in detention than it is to spend 5 years thinking you may be released next week.
by ruawake on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:51 pm
@Colvinius: Horrible rise of disappearances in post-war Sri Lanka continues: http://t.co/XtlBw44s via @ASRC1
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Actually I think the PM made his bed and now both of them have to lie in it.
by davidwh on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:52 pm
I am really over it all. Federal politics is one disgusting, disappointing saga after another.
Wake me up when I should care again. Until then, I will focus on state politics, where our decision makers actually have visions for the future and our Labor premier is actually a leftist.
by Carey Moore on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:52 pm
FB
‘some place else’ – You’re “dreamin’”.
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Bye, Carey.
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Ahh, the character limitations of tweeting. He intended to continue with
‘… so that I can get them to work for next to nothing in jobs that I can’t because Aussies are too smart and know their rights at work. Damn you Gillard!’
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:55 pm
@lyndalcurtis: The bells are ringing. #breakisover
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:56 pm
QT in four minutes. Should be interesting
by Psephos on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Psephos, Speaking as a member of the Labor Left, I agree with everything in your letter.
Except the bit about denouncing the Refugee Convention since I can’t see how that is necessary? when, as you note, we don’t have people coming in any numbers at all directly from where they face persecution. Which is not at all likely to change, unless, perhaps, the entire female population of PNG decided to make the trip.
by Marrickville Mauler on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Carey Moore
I sympathise with those sentiments
by spur212 on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:57 pm
@AlexGreenwich: Media Release: GILLARD CONDEMNED FOR SPEAKING AT ANTI-GAY CONFERENCE / CHRISTIANS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM ACL http://t.co/UBx5S4K4
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Shock news: Clive Palmer to run as Greens candidate for Senate.
by Psephos on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Running Total back of the envelope costing of Greens policies (updated to include uranium policies:
Uranium policy: $1.26 billion.#
Hecs and Fee Help Foregone: $23 billion
Uni Fees discarded: $20 billion
Cover extra weeks leave for Commonwealth employees: $912,000,000.
Drop TAFE fees and charges: $2.040 billion.
Means tested adequate living allowance: $1.5 billion.
Arts programs: $230 million***
Government job creation scheme for the unemployed: $38.4 billion**
Additional revenue: company tax from 30% to 33%: $8.4 billion*.
Cumulative $78.942 billion shortfall over forward estimates.
#Assumes that the government will pay no compensation to owners of uranium deposits, estimated at around $1.3 trillion, including Olympic Dam Mine. The calculations do not include revenue foregone. Nor does not take into account $2 billion plus loss of exports over forward estimates.
*assumes (a) that private investment would continue at current rates and (b) that the various additional costs, regulatory, monitoring and reporting requirements are cost-free.
**assumes 6% unemployment rate.
***various assumptions made about program size and about direct cost to government of regulatory measures
by Boerwar on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:58 pm
ruawake @ 1667
True, but an unfortunate analogy with a prisoner and parole immediately comes to mind………
But these are not prisoners, right?
DR
by DRinMelb on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Probably longer because of condolences, etc after a long break.
by BK on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Psephos how do you know that homosexuals are not seeking asylum from the countries you list, which have a clearly documented policy of persecution, torture and state sanctioned murder? They would be well within their rights. Also you seem like you need to be reminded that gay men and lesbians were persecuted by the Nazis to the same degree as the Jews.
by shiftaling on Aug 14, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Tom Hawkins
Sorry Clive,Gina has first dibbs. W.A. reckons it’s finders keepers. Gina wants passenger ships moored of the northern coast to house cheap asian labour so the fit for her is perfect
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Does anyone know if Slipper is resuming the chair? Or is it still Anna Burke?
I’d love to see the look on Pyne’s face if it was Slipper.
by Von Kirsdarke on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Slipper still not in the big chair.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Thanks for your comment, Marrickville Mauler. I agree, in my calmer moments, that it would probably only be necessary to denounce the Convention if the High Court used it as a basis for a ruling that either mandatory detention or offshore processing was illegal.
by Psephos on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Thanks, TLBD.
by Von Kirsdarke on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:01 pm
psephos@1635: your letter is good and I agree with almost all of it (not quite sure I agree with what you seemed to be saying about the TPVs). And just a slight quibble, the Jews are not all gone from Iran: there is still a significant Jewish community there and I believe it is treated ok.
I really, really like the following sentence from your letter.
“The majority of Australians can see that the intellectuals and their media outlets are not only fundamentally wrong on this issue, but are pursuing their wrongness with an arrogance and a manifest contempt for everyone else’s opinions that will discredit everything they have to say on every other subject for years to come.”
This has always been the case with many left wing so-called intellectuals over the age of about 35 and any issue to do with the immigration system. They all grew up incessantly chanting the mantra “Australia was so dull and boring until the ethnics came here, so dull and boring (and the food was no good either)”. I note you asked Manne whether he would like to have an open door migration system. They will never admit it, but many of the left wing so-called intellectuals are strongly attracted to this idea at an emotional level. They have never really liked the Australian people all that much: too white, too narrow-minded, too anti-intellectual, too politically conservative, too obsessed with money, etc, etc. They like the idea of lots and lots of migrants because they will eventually replace the boring, conservative, objectionable bulk of the Australian people.
In short: most members of our self-appointed intelligentsia consider themselves to be vastly superior to the rest of us. Typically without any good cause. This superior attitude is always going to be highly offensive to most Australians, and is easily exploited by the Pauline Hansons of this world.
Among these narcissistic would-be intellectual wankers, you were right to single out Phillip Adams for abuse: ten years on he remains the best reason for choosing not to listen to Radio National. To think that my one time associate, the sadly deceased Alan Saunders, thought he was a certainty to take over as host of Late Night Live after Virginia (now Justice) Bell quite the job, only to have Adams shoe-horned in over the top of him. We all hoped that Adams would retire after a few years and Alan could take over, but – alas – we have proof once again only the good die young. Adams is a slimy, smarmy, conceited, numbskulled twerp: no wonder he loves the Ruddster so much.
by meher baba on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Psephos
I’m reposting this from this morning.
I didn’t see a reply from you so I was concerned you’d missed it. Maybe I just missed seeing your reply?
Psephos
Glad you are around.
At 658 last night you said WTTE “Malaysia won’t sign the convention so it (Houston’s reference to Malayisa)is a meaningless fig leaf”.
You and others might be surprised to learn that signing the Convention is neither a sufficient or necessary condition to the HC’s acceptance of it as a safe, protective and suitable place to which ASs can be sent.
The HC neither said nor implied that signing the Convention was necessary, despite the extremely widespread misunderstanding and misquoting of this here and throughout the MSM.
Visit The Political Sword site for fuller evidence of this in my last poat there at 10.16am this morning.
by psyclaw on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Running Total back of the envelope costing of Greens policies (amended to include science and technology costings):
Uranium policy: $1.26 billion.#
Science and Technology: $1.024 billion.
Hecs and Fee Help Foregone: $23 billion
Uni Fees discarded: $20 billion
Cover extra weeks leave for Commonwealth employees: $912,000,000.
Drop TAFE fees and charges: $2.040 billion.
Means tested adequate living allowance: $1.5 billion.
Arts programs: $230 million***
Government job creation scheme for the unemployed: $38.4 billion**
Additional revenue: company tax from 30% to 33%: $8.4 billion*.
Cumulative shortfall: $79.966 billion over forward estimates.
#Assumes that the government will pay no compensation to owners of uranium deposits, estimated at over $1 trillion. Does not include revenue foregone. Does not take into account $2 billion plus loss of exports over forward estimates.
*assumes (a) that private investment would continue at current rates and (b) that the various additional costs, regulatory, monitoring and reporting requirements are cost-free.
**assumes 6% unemployment rate.
***various assumptions made about program size and about direct cost to government of regulatory measures
by Boerwar on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:05 pm
@BBCBreaking: #Ecuador president says he hopes to make ruling on Julian #Assange’s asylum bid after consulting advisers on Wednesday http://t.co/k1OJUqqb
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:06 pm
It’s Showtime!
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:06 pm
How is Labor going to spin this?
@AlexGreenwich: Media Release: GILLARD CONDEMNED FOR SPEAKING AT ANTI-GAY CONFERENCE / CHRISTIANS DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM ACL http://t.co/UBx5S4K4
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Always thought your view is a press/media one.
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Boerwar
Impressive.
But they ain’t got nothing on Sloppy’s black hole!
by BK on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:07 pm
And now for something completely different. A 360 degree panorama, constantly moving, of the surface of Mars from the Curiosity Rover:
http://www.photojpl.com/curiosity-landing-site-on-mars-first-hd-panorama-of-gale-crater/-/s4fkBPaSqJ/
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:07 pm
some of you might need to turn away…
de briefing notes from Abbott’s party room.
This is brutal stuff.
Tony Abbott is said to have told colleagues that whatever happened, the next federal election was no more than 12 months away. If the Prime Minister went beyond August, then people will think she is cheating.
Liberal Deputy leader Julie Bishop backed Mr Abbott’s point about the election should not be later than August 2013. Labor ministers were talking about the end of 2013, but they couldn’t get away with scrounging an extra few months.
Ms Bishop argued the Prime Minister’s press conference yesterday (after the Houston panel had made public its findings) showed not one note of grace. Ms Gillard was arrogant and nasty; she must be regarded as culpable for the deaths at sea.
Mr Abbott said on the boat issue, events will feed into the perception that the Prime Minister’s word is worthless. Six weeks ago she was demonising the Nauru solution. This was an humiliating backdown.
Mr Abbott said the fact the government would rather talk about boats than the carbon tax showed how toxic the tax had become.
Shadow immigration minister Scott Morrison said Ms Gillard should apologise to Philip Ruddock and John Howard. He added voters could not expect Howard Goverment outcomes without the full suite of Howard government policies.
Earlier Mr Abbott said Ms Gillard had adopted only one leg of the three necessary policies: they were re-opening Nauru; temporary protection visas and turning back the boats.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/blogs/the-pulse/politics-live-august-14-2012-20120814-245iq.html#ixzz23URaeEkH
by rosemour on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Anna Burke in the Speaker’s Chair again.
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 2:08 pm