Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
Some calls on the local radio were
they will not vote for teir local coalition member libs or nats
felt physically ill when I heard Abbott going on about how the Labour party were responsible for the lives of the people drowned
by Meguire Bob on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:43 pm
How long to we have to listen to this creep?
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:43 pm
@lyndalcurtis: Amendment to migration legislation will allow Parlt to veto the designation of an offshore processing country b4 it comes into effect.
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:44 pm
The liberals will have to get rid of abbott if they want any chance, Gilllard and the government would be laughing wiht this rant
it is turning people off
by Meguire Bob on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:44 pm
@latikambourke: Tony Abbott even parodies his own catch cry ‘pick up the phone.’ #asylum
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Re: disallowance
I can almost guarantee that either house can disallow regulations independently.
It does not require legislation to pass both, and it does not require a vote to pass in both.
Others can confirm.
This used to happen a lot to Hawke/Keating as I recall where they would enact a regulation and it would be pinged in the Senate.
I believe it also happened to the Rudd government over the changes to student allowances where the regulation covering the new payment regime was disallowed in the Senate causing the whole payment system to be put in jeopardy.
As I understand it the rationale is that where regulations can be created by the executive, doing so is the equivalent of the executive putting legislation through parliament without the overhead of actually doing so – ie both houses have the opportunity to vote legislation down, and either one doing so causes the legislation to fail. Equivalently, either house voting to disallow a regulation causes it to not exist.
by Jackol on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm
k2@1869: I fear you’re probably right that the Taliban will take over again when the West pulls out, but your view still seems a bit defeatist to me. The world has to do something to try to help the women of Afghanistan. We can take some of them as refugees, but the bulk are still going to have to live there and surely the large amount of women’s education that is taking place now is going to help change things in the long term.
I can’t believe that the women of Afghanistan are simply helpless victims. Surely, as they become more educated, they might become empowered to help themselves to some extent.
by meher baba on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm
It’s a shocker, isn’t it? He doesn’t know that he’s digging his own ultimate grave. It’s just a giant gloat. Nobody likes these types of things. He’s dragging it on and on.
Thankfully it’ll the close to the last time.
Abbott forgets that the punters forget quicker than he does.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Abbott forgets he would not allow Nauru to be opened over 8 months ago.
by ruawake on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Abbott just said would not say what Mitchell on radio said this morning that Julia Gillard was personally responsible for the deaths of 1000 people.
How very unclever.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:46 pm
@sportsbetmedia: More bets for Julia Gillard to win the next election but all the big bets are for the Coalition. ALP $6, Liberals into $1.10
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Doesn’t matter.Lethim get it out of his system. He’ll realise soon enough that a win in the parliament 12 months before an election is soon blown to the wind.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Abbott just stated he should resign.
by ruawake on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:47 pm
@lenoretaylor: that’s a whole lot of “we told you so” @latikambourke 41 Oppn MPs listed to speak on Offshore processing #asylum bill. 4 Govt MPs.
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:47 pm
20 minutes, I believe.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:47 pm
As a matter of honour, I am resigning from listening to any more of this
by shellbell on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Now he’s on to Pink Batts. Yada-yada…
It’s a giant dummy spit.
I sincerely hope that Labor does not reply in kind.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Rant over and the Oops leave.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:48 pm
what has pink batts got to do wiht this
by Meguire Bob on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:48 pm
ROFLMAO
Abbott mentions ‘honour’ and wants the government to resign, and chucks in ‘BATTS’! so I get a laugh at last.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:48 pm
@GrogsGamut: So QLD State Govt is cutting public service front line jobs and celebrating Tatts Group shifting to Brisbane. Russ Hinze would be proud.
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Speers: “Abbott is rubbing her nose in it.”
Not a good look if even Speers is saying this.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Meguire Bob
The colour of bats used by GLBTI people waiting at voting booths?
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:50 pm
‘mute’ on the TV is very handy.
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:50 pm
guytaur
yeah on the local radio at the moment people are goign off at abbott
by Meguire Bob on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Indispensable.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:51 pm
What is this racism against pink batts? That is very pinkist of Abbott.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Torbay is probably squirming now
by Meguire Bob on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Tony Abbott spoke about ‘decency’. He doesn’t know the meaning of the word.
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Call me naive, but surely three Opposition members asking exactly the same Q of the PM could be ruled out of order.
OTOH it gave the PM more opportunity to say wtte fools, go and read the report.
by lizzie on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:53 pm
C@tmomma
Which is precisely why he speaks about it
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:54 pm
meher baba @ 1906
Defeatist?
got nothing to do with me, pal.
The world doesn’t have to do a thing about helping the women of Afghanistan.
But I resent the implication that the reason the West in is Afghanistan is to help women. Absolute BS.
So, what planet do you inhabit. The one where women are physically superior to men?
Think about it.
by kezza2 on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Well, that’s a manufacturing breakthrough of which Newman can be proud
He’s obviously into making people poor and then giving them bread and circuses.
by lizzie on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Whenever there are bad days politically for the government, solace can always be taken from Abbott over-reaching with his blow hard rhetoric.
by Burgey on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:57 pm
It’s funny that supporters of the occupation in Afghanistan are talking about the Great Mission to liberate Afghan women while also denouncing the terrible Communists.
What do you think THEIR justification was? Learn some history, christ.
by McFly Marty on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:57 pm
1934
It does seem that it was a mistake to undermine the Communists in Afghanistan.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 14, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Coming to Queensland soon Job Lotteries.
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Helping the women of Afghanistan was the sugar to help make bitter medicine palatable. Whether we did and if it will last I suppose only time will tell.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:01 pm
So the outcome is the AS Bill will be passed by both major parties… is this correct?
by Gecko on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:01 pm
If I get a chance much later tonight I’ll ask you about laptops – I saw you and schnappi briefly discussing last night but you ‘crashed’ before I was able to.
Slow night!
by CTar1 on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:02 pm
One thing is obvious. Abbott really deeply hates ‘that woman’.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Newman starting to think he can outdo Palmers Titanic II project.
@danielhurstbne: Brisbane should bid for the #Olympics in the 2020s, @TheQldPremier says http://t.co/MbjzwIbL #qldpol
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:03 pm
@PeterPhelpsMLC: Speaking on Coal Seam Gas some time between 5.00 and 6.30 tonight. May be rather controversial. You can watch online.
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Yep it will pass the Reps tonight, the Senate by the end of the week.
by ruawake on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Excellent. Thanks Ru.
by Gecko on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:07 pm
1838 fredn
Actually, I think that might play to Labor’s advantage in seeking to differentiate themselves from the Greens.
by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:07 pm
@Pollytics: FFS ALP! Your line is Nauru is short term, Malaysia medium term, leading to the only long term solution – a regional one.
by guytaur on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Indonesia’s FM Natalegawa has said 3x already that Indonesia will never agree or allow this because it’s crazy and dangerous. So why the #MSMhacks let Abbott & Morriscum get away with the rubbish of “We will turn the Boats when it’s safe to do so”.
Not to mention, the refugees will sabotage the boat themselves if any turn the boat is attempted.
Abbott never had the gut to raise it with SBY when they met face to face.
by The Finnigans on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:08 pm
So now what the ALP can do is take on board anything the opposition proposes to ‘stop the boats’ and what will Abbott be left with? Zilch.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:09 pm
guytaur
Let them go, it is no point trying to answer or qualify this ranting.
by Puff, the Magic Dragon. on Aug 14, 2012 at 4:11 pm