Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
*their own way.
Typing when talking to children AND watching The Princess Bride is not really working for me. You should see the mistakes I’m making on twitter
by Danny Lewis on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:06 pm
poroti,
I find that a most satisfactory explanation. Thank you!
Dave,
Some time ago I had a rare moment of agreement with Peter Hartcher. While I agree that Mr Bernanke deserves some blame for the GFC and its aftermath, I must say that I simply adore Hartcher’s persuasive portrayal of Bernanke’s predecessor, Greenspan, as an Ayn Rand warrior – and hence as the more reprehensible guilty party:
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/uncle-sam-heading-closer-to-a-fresh-financial-meltdown-20110404-1cyil.html
Firmin DeBrabander’s take (late last year) on the delectable Ms Rand is also well worth a read:
https://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/11/11-3
by fiona on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:07 pm
No, but they are being invoked at present as a scape-goat opportunity in the event boats keep coming.
Abbott will just say that the whole coalition policy should’ve been adopted holus-bolus and it’s yet more evidence of incompetence etc etc.
Amazingly I heard on the ABC news that Abbott has called on the govt to resign. And in breaking news ABC news writers, the pope is catholic, didn’t ya know!
by confessions on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Meanwhile, I reckon the ALP would win the next election if they simply moved on gay marriage.
Fact: The public supports it overwhelmingly. Gen Y voters find it close to self-evident.
Or, you can lose, I suppose. Your call.
by lefty e on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:09 pm
SK – I seem to remember that when Manus came up during the Howard era that there were PNG MPs who said the same thing. The centre still went ahead tho.
by BH on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:10 pm
BH,
If the Aussies go up there with bags of cash no one will be saying no – except to up the ante.
by Space Kidette on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:12 pm
aguirre! “salvage their purity” give me a break. politics is the art of mixing idealism and pragmatism. the blind idealism of greens in 2009 led us into the impasse of today, and since they see themselves as purte (as you seem to) by definition they are above criticism. i repeat, they can feel as pure as they want but how does that help the refugees and their own constituents? or this there some perverse satisfaction is losing with purity.
by geoffrey on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:13 pm
From what I gather PNG MPs are rather less predictable than Schrödinger’s cat.
Spacey will know better.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:14 pm
geoffrey,
We’re at another Greens ideaological impasse!
by Space Kidette on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Amending the Marriage Act to enable same sex marriage is ALP policy.
by confessions on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Wyatt blew it. Only spoke for eight minutes. Go to the principal’s office.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Apart from legislation to enable Nauru amd PNG ( leaving Malaysia alone at this point ) is there anything else in the Houston findings that needs to go through Parliament ?
by Doyley on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Mum phoned me this afternoon to tell me that Turnbull gave a wonderful eulogy in the HOR this afternoon, and wondered why in dog’s name he was not LOTO
by victoria on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:15 pm
victoria,
I am glad he is not!
by Space Kidette on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:16 pm
victoria,
I hope you told her.
by This little black duck on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm
left-e
sorry i actually think katter is right on gay marriage (if nothing else) – it is a very funny idea. he says no heterosexuals want to get married, then someone rang him up and asked what he thought of gay marriage, and he just laughed and laughed. nothing anti gay there. more anti marriage. just potentially funny idea. also wish greens would stop assuming this is natural or core issue for them. no doubt it will happen but i agree also with katter, then are a dozen more pressing issues around.
by geoffrey on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Yes, but they put in a stupid conscience vote, to give all the SDA Catholics an “out”.
Either it is Labor policy or it isn’t. If it is Labor policy then EVERY LABOR MP should vote for it.
They need to shit or get off the pot.
by Danny Lewis on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Geoffrey:
We knew that we wouldn’t win on either. The ALP doesn’t need the votes of people who are our supporters since mostly, they get them anyway. That’s why they are pitching at the right. That’s also why no “compromise” we could have put would have been acceptable to the ALP. It would not have sent the right message to Lindsay.
Our best hope of a humane policy was to put our position, block their poor ones and let the ALP work out what to do without our help.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:18 pm
SK
Turnbull would calm the nervous nellies who are wanting to vote coalition, but are not convinced with The Rabbott
by victoria on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:18 pm
BH,
Indeed they were/are.
I shall never forget the edition of This Day Tonight when the host (know it wasn’t Bill Peach, can’t remember who it was) and the Canberra Presser journo were sniggering because Fraser had reneged on an interview – only to have Tamie (sorry about my earlier misspelling) storming onto the set, informing the boys that the PM had a bad case of the flu and was suffering in bed in the Lodge, and wtte telling them to pull their heads in / demanding an apology.
Which they sort of gave, looking completely shell-shocked.
As an aside, my mother taught Phoebe when Phoebe was in Year 2 or thereabouts, and apparently even back then she was a determined mite.
by fiona on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:18 pm
victoria,
Agreed, precisely why I don’t want him as the LOTO!
by Space Kidette on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:19 pm
I’m getting the feeling my ironic tone was a shade too subtle.
by Aguirre on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:20 pm
Geoffrey:
Nothing we do can help the refugees for as long as the majors ignore our proposals. Therefore, it is for the majors to decide amongst themselves what they would have happen.
It’s not about us being “pure”. It’s about us recognising that we don’t have the numbers to make policy.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:21 pm
To any Greens supporters, and given that this is still a hypothetical, if Libs support legislation proposed, in your opinion is it better or worse than the “Malaysian ” solution?
Of course you can say both as bad as one another but eventually something will be legislated or if not continue as is.
Are you comfortable with these options?
by RNM1953 on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Danny:
Yes I know. I’m just correcting those who think the party isn’t moving on same sex marriage. It is. The pace might be a bit slow than what people want, but it isn’t as if the party is standing still on the issue, which is the impression a lot of disengaged voters seem to have.
by confessions on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:23 pm
ruawake
He wins either way. If they keep coming, he wins. If they stop, he wins.
by gloryconsequence on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Danny Lewis
SDA ? Grrrrrrrr.
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:24 pm
2267
The Government should have done 2 things from the start.
Let them on the planes to put the boats out of business.
Run a public information campaign to inform more Australians that refugees are fleeing real danger and that the risk of terrorists, who might do harm to Australia, being allowed to do that harm getting in are very low.
by Tom the first and best on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Danny:
If the Migration Act is amended then no HCA challenge will float. This is not a constitutional issue but one of the discretion of the Minister. Malaysia was struck out because the minister’s discretion was regarded as biund by some objective test — based on the wording of the act passed by Howard all those years ago.
If Houston is carried out, Nauru might pass even without amendments.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm
So why did the Greens vote with the Opposition rather than abstaining? By the Greens saying that they voted for the status quo they were implying that the number of deaths among asylum seekers had not yet reached an unacceptable level.
by Scarpat on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Inconceivable!!
by hugh moran on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm
Danny Lewis,
SDA Boo!
I’m pretty sure Federal Labor MHR’s have the right to exercise a conscience vote.
by Greensborough Growler on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm
There’s bugger all votes in gay marriage as an issue.
How can you think someone who votes liberal will vote labor because the latter says yes to gay marriage is beyond me.
by Burgey on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:28 pm
The Malaysian solution is warped. It relies on people risking their lives in a boat in coming to Australia, order to discourage other people from getting on a boat.
Its the moral equivalent of inviting 800 people to go out an try heroin, just so the government can then appear tough on addicts by sending the new 800 herion addicts to a cold turkey de-tox facility.
I detest the Malaysian solution.
by Mr Squiggle on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:29 pm
RNM1953:
Both are wrong in principle. How wrong is moot.
Of course not. We aren’t comfortable with a lot of things. We aren’t the majority though, and that is the fate of minorities, noisy as we are.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:29 pm
gloryconsequence
Why. So. Negative,
by my say on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:29 pm
gloryconsequence
U are green. I take it
by my say on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:30 pm
If the boats stop coming there is no longer a stick to beat the govt with.
Abbott loses.
by confessions on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Scarpat:
We voted to block legislation that directly offended ethical principles which we have persistently asserted. That our reasons were diametrically opposed to those of the LNP were beside the point, as was the case in 2009 over the CPRS.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:32 pm
Greens logic.
And Boerwar is right. Why is it that Greens and their shills always go on about boats and gay marriage? Why don’t they make a song and dance about their other policy platforms?
I suspect we know the reason, which Boerwar has been superbly amplifying the past few weeks.
by confessions on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:32 pm
I’m tempted to agree with you confessions. It a little bit like saying:
If they keep coming, Abbot’s win is still ahead of him. IF they stop coming, Abbot’s win is behind him.
He wins under both scenarios, the difference is in the timing of the win in relation to the next election date.
by Mr Squiggle on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:33 pm
Danny Lewis@2213,
Textured Vegetable Proteins?
Trying to ‘Break the People Smugglers’ Business Model’ by waving TVP at them? Now that’s a novel suggestion. Though I think Angus Houston is right to have poo-pooed it.
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Burgey:
It seems improbable that most Liberals who were sympathetic would switch on this basis and shift even one seat.
OTOH … it might make those on the left keener to defend the regime and that might win over more uncommitteds.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:34 pm
If it works we will end up with a regional solution no matter which way it goes. If you had got the Malaysian solution with the greens politically it would not have solved Labors problem. If you get this up with Liberal support, both major parties hold the can.
It would have been better if we didn’t get here, but we have, so I think this is a better solution.
You still have to get liberal support though, and I don’t think you will get it. In that case the Liberals are left holding the can.
If it fails there is only one option left, stop being nasty. The greens solution.
by fredn on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Glory:
I don’t know how true that is. Since the Carbon Tax! has been such a big squib for him, Stop The Boats! is the only line of attack he has left. If the issue is neutralised – no matter who ‘wins’ – he has nothing left to attack the ALP with. So if the boats stop coming, he has nothing left to talk about. He won’t have a “Vote for me because I will…” line to run with. You can throw it in the things-he-can’t-do-anything-about pile with NBN, Carbon Pricing, Mining Tax and all the rest of it.
His entire campaign was supposed to be about things he was gunna do. Mostly repealing and rolling back things; at least AS gave him a chance to talk about an action he was going to take. He’s lost that line either way you cut it.
If the boats still come, then he’s stuck with having crowed about ALP capitulation and his program being the one that got voted in. That his party supported (as it seems likely they’ll vote for it).
Nobody in politics ever gets anywhere claiming victory on an issue people have stopped caring about. It’s all about the now and the immediate future.
by Aguirre on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:36 pm
Fran,
which had the unfortunate consequence of diminishing the issue of global warming in the public’s eyes – if the Green’s voted against the CPRS (whether it was going to improve the situation sufficiently is not the point) then there is no urgency.
by Scarpat on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:39 pm
Aguirre
And without that the only TWS (Three Word Slogan) he will be left with is ” I Ah Um” followed by nodding donkey action.
by poroti on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
‘Business confidence surged in July’:
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Business-confidence-surges-in-July-NAB-pd20120814-X63Q2?OpenDocument&src=pm&utm_source=exact&utm_medium=email&utm_content=90005&utm_campaign=pm&modapt=news
Maybe this had something to do with it?
“Sentiment is also likely to have picked up given (the) carbon tax hurdle has been passed.”
As most businesses realised they didn’t have to pay it.
by C@tmomma on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Gloryconsequence
Completely agree. The politics is lose/win in the extreme for the ALP and especially Gillard personally
by spur212 on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:41 pm
2279
The Greens voted no to Malaysia because they, correctly, oppose it (as they were elected to do). It would not necessarily have stopped the boats and was just plain wrong.
The Greens did not however present a coherent alternative policy that would stop the boats. About the only policy that would is let them on the planes. This is what the Greens should have a policy and argument. It is Australia`s policy of keeping potential refuge applicants off the planes that keeps the people smugglers in business. Smuggling industries do not survive when there are cheaper and safer legal alternatives.
http://www.theglobalmail.org/feature/you-heard-were-stopping-the-boats-you-heard-wrong/335/
by Tom the first and best on Aug 14, 2012 at 8:41 pm