Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
shellbell
I gather the Affidavit would have been provided to the Commonwealth and Slipper by now?
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:46 am
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-08-15/ecuador-denies-assange-asylum-report/4199100
Hopefully Assange will be granted asylum, and then we won’t have to hear from him anymore. His attention-seeking behaviour will be Ecuador’s problem.
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:48 am
Thanks Shellbell – old news then, looks like we have to wait until October
Victoria – I doubt there are many multi-billion dollar industries where things are always above board – just look at the banks and the Libor rigging – racing is the same, fine most of the time but a few bad eggs. Bring on the Spring Carnival
Have a great day all, off to work
by womble on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:52 am
one hopes Albanese has something better in mind following that pissweak presser he just did.
by rosemour on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:53 am
From all reports, the current batch of refugees are FIBO – Fly Indonesia – Boat Out. you hear first here
by The Finnigans on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:55 am
The finns
What do you mean?
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:57 am
Victoria
For sure. It may have even been the subject of comment by them at the hearing on 23 July 2012.
by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:57 am
shellbell
Thanks
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:57 am
Mr and Mrs BK will be heading off to Canberra today. I’ll have my laptop with me so I won’t be going PB cold turkey.
by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:58 am
You are perfect compared to me, i do typos nearly every time
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 8:59 am
About those tents on Nauru.
Howard’s detention centre saccommodation was mainly tents and lean-to shelters with a few demountable shacks. If the Gillard government is going to spend a billion or two on the place then obviously something more substantial will be erected this time.
Some old shots of the accomodation Tony Abbott used to think was very acceptable when he was a minister -
http://ashghebranious.wordpress.com/2010/11/15/the-rocky-road-to-stop-the-boat/
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/tony-abbott-pushes-for-nauru-asylum-seeker-option-on-visit-to-island/story-e6frg12c-1226073894156
Abbott’s claim last year that the centre could be re-opened within weeks and just needed a lawn mow and a bit of paint was and still is absolute rubbish. This is the sort of thing that’s left.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1621013/Nauru-solution-cost-blowout-Bowen
by leone on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:00 am
Good news – I have a mate sitting front and centre before the High Court when it announces the outcome in tobacco (he is in the following case).
Bad news – he would be struck off if he pulled out his phone and communicated with me. Even if he did by the time his clunky fingers press buttons and mine do the same, twitterverse will be alight
by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:00 am
BK
Have a good trip!
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:01 am
This could be right
by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:02 am
Has Malcolm Turnbull simply had more than enough of Abbott?
by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:03 am
BK:
Enjoy your trip. Will you be catching any of parliament while you’re there?
by confessions on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:04 am
lizzie
The twitterverse has been full of rumours during past few weeks that Turnbull is ready to challenge Abbott
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:05 am
QLD number 20 on most livable city what did Queenslanders expect after their IDIOTIC premier decided to talk it’s potentials down to the point of comparing it to spain.Nice Newman how to kick your own arse without really trying lololol,suffer in your jocks Cando.
by canasta76 on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:05 am
confessions
I hope to get to QT tomorrow.
by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:06 am
The longer Gillard and Abbott remain leader, the more uncertain and disilusioned people will feel about politics as a while and the more popular Rudd and Turnbull will get
by spur212 on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:06 am
Heh, maybe he has a job when he gets backhome…
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:10 am
Meher baba 2689; DTT 2612. You both seem to think JG has won the day already because she is reopening Nauru and Manus?
Gentlemen or femmes, whichever: the challenge is the enforcement. Just ask Rodent about that.
btw Meherbaba – Julia Gillard herself drew up the policy that threw out Pacific Solution when she was shadow immigration minister under Simon Crean! The policy Rudd implemented in 2008 which turned out to be the greatest own goal kicked by govt in O political history, was entirely the prime minister’s own handiwork.
by Bar Bar on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:10 am
Good morning, Bludgers.
Here I am (as a lefty humanitarian multiculturalist) agreeing with Mal Fraser – I’m appalled! Given 11/11/1975, that’s an indication of just how far right the Coalition and Oz political dialogue moved during the Howard years.
OTOH (Ta BB),
the political tragic is fascinated by a Angus H & Co’s magnificent double-wedge. Make that triple-wedge for Gillard’s coup in appointing not only a panel but one with excellent standing among Australians. Make that quadruple-wedge (inc MSM print & TV) if she manages to kill-off AS as a 2013 election issue.
Either the amended legislation is passed in full by both houses, or Liberals, Nationals & Greens wear the odium of every new boat arrival, every life lost at sea.
If it’s defeated, boats will keep coming and some will sink, esp during the southern Monsoon season. Stop children, women and men drowning at sea. Vote ALP emerges as a key topic in Labor’s pre-election advertising, probably with graphic images.
Believe me, AS policy during the Gillard government is a future OzPol postgrad history/ politics/ policy student’s dream dissertation topic to rival Labor’s Hobart Conference split; a topic over which experts & aspiring ones argue for decades.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:11 am
victoria @ 2716
All you members of the cult had better hope Turnbull doesn’t succeed. Because if he does, I think it is the end for Julia.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:12 am
Good Morning Early Bludgers!
Having a look at the caravan as it has moved on from the release of the Expert Panel’s Report on Boat-borne Asylum Seekers on Monday, it seems to me the biggest hurdle that the scheme’s implementation will have to get over, and which will cause the most public angst, plus Opposition opportunism, will be around the amount of time that asylum seekers will be detained on Nauru and Manus Island, initially.
On the one hand we have Patrick McGorry saying that he would prefer it if the detention only lasted 2 years maximum.
On the other hand we had Scott Morrison saying that he would prefer a ‘Disadvantage Policy’, such that boat-borne asylum seekers languish longer than those refugees taken from camps around the world.
In the middle trying to hold the line is the government with their ‘No Advantage Policy’, which is trying to find a formula which can be implemented to calculate the approximate time they should be made to wait at the Processing Centres on Nauru and Manus. And keep people like McGorry but also panel expert, Paris Aristotle, on side. Both of whom want to minimise the negative mental health outcomes of this new policy.
Not to mention David Manne waiting in the wings probably with some legal wrinkle about the cruel and unusual punishment of indefinite detention.
Watch that space!
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:12 am
Bollocks. The extreme right who worship Abbott will abandon Turnbull very rapidly.
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:14 am
http://mrtiedt.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/the-silent-menace.html
On the potentially dangerous changes to Right-to-Silence in NSW O’Farrell is putting up, recommended reading. The blogger is a NSW Criminal Defence lawyer.
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:15 am
bemused
I an inclined to agree. Having said that. I do believe a week in politics is a very long time
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:16 am
bemused
I’d be grateful if you’d stop using the word “cult” and pasting me into someone else’s post.
As it happens, I also believe that a Turnbull LOTO would spell more danger for the PM.
by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:17 am
http://www.marketeconomics.com.au/2211-since-the-carbon-tax-started-edition-7
see link for the data
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:18 am
C@tmomma @ 2724
You have some good points there.
It seems to me that it is widely overlooked that the AS on Nauru and Manus are in Australia custody and Australia is responsible for their welfare. It means that their treatment can be challenged in Australian courts.
That is a key difference with Malaysia.
I just hope the Govt does not spend too much before this all unravels in the courts.
Yes, a small problem then for the Govt. But a much larger one for the Opposition.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:19 am
Dan I. Have thought. For a longtime abbott. Has. Sort groupy following
Ofwhich couldne never see themselves followi g m.t.
And would the??shock jocks warm. To mt
by my say on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:20 am
Rosemour Albanese lacked his usual passion in that press conference this morning. Like most Australians he is probably sick of the politics of it and so didn’t have his heart in it today.
Speaking of passion I think Abbott came across well this morning at the welcome home ceremony. Said enough and with some feeling. Best not to comment on the PM’s effort.
by davidwh on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:21 am
Dan Gulberry @ 2725
What is the meaning of that if he is the leader of the Opposition? In what sense can they abandon their leader? What of the business community who pull strings in the opposition?
Try thinking a little Dan.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:21 am
A Turnbull coup would be brilliant for the govt.
It would be like Rudd v Gillard. Abbott would go down swinging and there would be a lot of nastiness.
Turnbull is nearly hated as much by his own party as Rudd is!
Bring it on!
by Henry on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:22 am
When newman is firing so many PSs (inc hospital non-medical staff) and his backbenchers (esp former Nats in regional and country areas) are said to be rebelling over the impact on their communities, “maybe” is probably overly optimistic, given the likely reaction of the public & print media to newman’s hiring an arrogant, compulsive show-off, ex-con, spoilt-brat, failed olympian, bankrupt. The CM will go ballistic.
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:23 am
lizzie @ 2728
How did I paste you into someone else’s post?
I don’t understand.
I don’t count you as a cultist. You are one of the sensible Gillard backers and there are some here. The cultists know who they are… just wait for the squeals.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:24 am
I’d be happy to take the chance with Turnbull. Best to go down fighting with a leader you respect.
by davidwh on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:24 am
bemused
Henry sums it up:
You might try thinking a little rather than just your regular Gillard bashing.
by Dan Gulberry on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:25 am
lizzie
Thanks. I had not read the post by bemused properly. He cant help himself. He projects his own cultist behaviour on everyone else. We know who the cultist is around here, and it is not you or me
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:26 am
Henry @ 2734
You know that is absolute rubbish.
How would the opposition getting rid of their greatest negative (Abbott as leader) assist the Government?
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:26 am
bemused
Again I repeat you project your own cultist behaviour on everyone else. It stands out like d balls!
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:27 am
bemused@2723,
I see the resident Anti Julia Faction convenor and comedian has decided to scurrilously push Talcum’s barrow in order to continue his quest to destabilise the leadership of the federal parliamentary Labor Party and the government. To nil effect, as per usual, but nevertheless.
Let me just state a few facts about Turnbull as any putative Coalition leader:
* Labor have already seen him off once.
* He hasn’t been able to fulfill his brief from Tony Abbott to demolish the NBN. Labor have his measure here too.
* Godwin Grech/Utegate
* Nick Minchin and the Hard Right of the Coalition have seen him off once and would not be inclined to have him back again. Especially considering the way that the Liberal Party and National Party have been stacked with Conservatives as opposed to the old small ‘l’ Liberals.
* Andrew Peacock, though eminently and seemingly more qualified than John Howard, never succeeded in besting him as leader, especially after he had a go and the party had the lived experience of it to go on.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:27 am
can you imagine Credlin going meekly?
Abbott is her one chance, her only chance of being the Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff.
she’s gagging for it and wouldn’t let go without destroying everything in her path on the way out.
by Henry on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:28 am
bemused
Look at 2723. Putting two names gets confusing. There’s a lot of it about!
by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:28 am
OPT @ 2735
I don’t understand your post at all.
The qualities you describe Darcy possessing make him a perfect fit for the Newman regime.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:28 am
Shellbell, how is Dominic?
by Burgey on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:30 am
You really don’t have a clue do you bemused.
Disunity in politics is death, even an old fogey like yourself should understand that.
Turnbull, who i don’t mind, would not be much better politically than Abbott and the infighting that would precede him getting the top job would kill the coalition.
by Henry on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:30 am
I wish someone would sit Abbott down and give him a few lessons in how our parliamentary system works because he obviously has no idea whatsoever.
First there was his crap about being the next ‘elected’ prime minister. The msm let him get away with that one. Now he would have us believe that an election must be held exactly three years after the last one, it’s some sort of deceptive skullduggery by Julia Gillard if she goes one day past that date. Absolute rubbish, and, naturally, the msm have gone along with it.
Let’s get the facts out there. Maybe eventually someone will notice.
Assuming that the Gillard government runs it full term the current House of Representatives will expire exactly three years after it’s first meeting, NOT three years after the day of the last election. So that would be around 29 September 2013.
There are other things that come into play as well when stting an election date.
*Writs for the election must be issued within 10 days of the dissolution of Parliament.
(Constitution s.12, 32, CEA s.151).
*Nominations close at 12 noon on a selected day between 10 and 27 days after the issue of writ.
*Nominations are declared 24 hours after the closing time.
*Polling day is fixed between 23 and 31 days after the date of nominations.
*After polling day writs must be returned within 100 days of their issue. This is to allow time for postal votes to be received and counted and for any recounts that might be needed.
*The new parliament must meet within 30 days of the day appointed for the return of the writs.
The last possible day for the 2013 election is Saturday 30 November.
by leone on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:30 am
Henry
Bemused is miffed because as a cultist for Rudd, things are not going his way
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 9:31 am