Crikey

Monday, August 13, 2012

Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

by William Bowe
Federal Politics 2010-

This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.

Preselection snippets:

• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.

• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.

• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.

• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.

• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.

Categories: Federal Politics 2010-

7198 Responses

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  1. zoomster

    Where did I claim it was?

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:57 pm

  2. The high court victory seems to have overshadowed the conservatives agenda of smear re the AS issue

    by Rex Douglas on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:57 pm

  3. Gillard is never going to have a problem with the Jewish lobby because she’s one of Israeli’s most dependable right wing allies in the world.

    She’s actually one of Israel’s most dependable social-democrat friends in the world, which is a lot more important, because so much of the left has been seduced by the fake victim-narrative of the Palestinians.

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:57 pm

  4. Just passing thru during lunch break. But fully endorse Puff! A great day for Labor!

    Take a bow Nicola, Julia and Tania: you have showed the world!

    Mod Lib, I dare you to try to turn that into a fail!

    by Gorgeous Dunny on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:57 pm

  5. Wait on! Wait on!

    Big Tobacco up in smoke and Boat legislation about to get up!

    I thought this was a “dysfunctional” government?

    by Tricot on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:58 pm

  6. @lyndalcurtis: There seems to be quite a bit of voting ahead. May take some time yet. #asylumbill

    @sarahinthesen8: Urgent letter from NGOs & experts horrified Gillard & Abbott are voting to strip protections & dump refugees offshore http://t.co/4tuMB31a

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 12:59 pm

  7. Guytaur my point is that you have on several occasions called for a greater levels of freedom of speech then when the PM meets with someone you don’t like, you complain.

    Should the PM meet with them, it depends on the point of the meeting, I am sure the PM will be provided with a full briefing on the groups views and it is highly possible that the PM will play nice but give nothing.

    In any day the PM and her office has dozens of meetings and members of the Gay community will judge the PM on her overall performance.

    by mexicanbeemer on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:00 pm

  8. Quirky fact:

    As a sort of peace dividend, at war’s end the U.S. military left the Australian government with not only many forklifts and cranes, but about 60,000 pallets. To handle these resources, the Australian government created the Commonwealth Handling Equipment Pool, and the company eventually spawned a modern pallet powerhouse, CHEP USA, which now controls about 90 percent of the “pooled” pallet market in the United States. Pooled pallets are rented from one company that takes care of delivering and retrieving them; the alternative is a “one-way” pallet, essentially a disposable item that is scrapped, recycled or reused when its initial journey is done. You can identify pooled pallet brands by their color: If you see a blue pallet at a store like Home Depot, that’s a CHEP pallet; a red pallet comes from competitor PECO.

    http://www.slate.com/articles/business/transport/2012/08/pallets_the_single_most_important_object_in_the_global_economy_.single.html

    by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:01 pm

  9. Morrison and Keenan look like they are about to cry. :)

    by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:01 pm

  10. Mod Lib

    I still don’t know whether the “Mod” stands “modern”, “moderate”, “model” or “modest” (I suspect not the last).

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:01 pm

  11. Take a bow Nicola, Julia and Tania: you have showed the world!

    Abbott has great discomfort and fear in dealing with a confident, competent and impressive woman.
    But THREE of them!!!
    Have a good day, Tone!

    by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:02 pm

  12. Tony Abbott, Julie Bishop, SHY – I can’t decide who of those 3 is more off-putting

    by Rex Douglas on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:03 pm

  13. [@sarahinthesen8: Urgent letter from NGOs & experts horrified Gillard & Abbott are voting to strip protections & dump refugees offshore http://t.co/4tuMB31a

    You’re a bit late, guys. This horse bolted years ago.

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:03 pm

  14. I still don’t know whether the “Mod” stands “modern”, “moderate”, “model” or “modest” (I suspect not the last).

    modified?

    by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:04 pm

  15. Nicola, Julia and Tania

    Between them, they have given Big Tobacco and its political hirelings just about the biggest kick in the balls they’ve ever had. Big Tobacco fought this so fiercely because it sets a really deadly precedent for them.

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:06 pm

  16. I still don’t know whether the “Mod” stands “modern”, “moderate”, “model” or “modest” (I suspect not the last).

    Before becoming a Mod Lib he was a Rocker Lib.

    by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:08 pm

  17. Meguire Bob
    Posted Wednesday, August 15, 2012 at 11:33 am | Permalink

    Problem wiht labor might get is

    Liquor firms donated $300,000 to Labor

    abbott will try to play on that as hypocrisy

    alcohol causes similar cancer to tobacco

    Just one link covering the libs taking money from these merchants of death.

    20,000 smoking related deaths per year in Australia alone – more than a jumbo jet crashing each week, year in year out killing all on board.

    It just wouldn’t be tolerated. And the libs are still taking huge donations of the blood money.

    Over a million smoking related deaths in India each year. No wonder they are looking to follow the ALP‘s initiative.

    Pressure is mounting on Tony Abbott to listen to the chorus of voices, including from his own MPs, and end the Liberal Party’s dangerous practice of accepting big donations from big tobacco.

    Yesterday, Tony Abbott, after much kicking and screaming, fell into line with the Government and will no longer stand in the way of our world first plain packaging legislation. I welcome this change of heart.

    But Mr Abbott has failed to completely kick his habit and is still accepting big donations from big tobacco.

    By British American Tobacco’s own admission, they only donate to the Liberal party to influence Liberal Party policy.

    “We have a clear policy and compliance procedures on political donations…

    “Such payments can only be made for the purpose of influencing…”
    British American Tobacco website

    http://www.alp.org.au/blogs/alp-blog/june-2011/big-donations-from-big-tobacco-continues-as-tony-a/

    There are heaps more links on donations by Big Tobbac to the libs if you want to go further.

    Nick Greiner a doyen of the libs, for many many years was on the board of BigTobac here in Australia.

    by dave on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:08 pm

  18. This division gives Tone the chance to sit on the speaker’s right.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:08 pm

  19. mexi

    You cannot get around reality. I have only stated what I think would be a better political choice. Note the word choice there. That means freedom.

    I am pointing out why it might be wiser to avoid a meeting due to political consequence.
    You are posting like I am personally demanding the PM not meet someone or some violent action will happen.

    You know this is not true.

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:08 pm

  20. alcohol causes similar cancer to tobacco

    No it doesn’t.

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:09 pm

  21. “Moderate Libation” ?

    by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:10 pm

  22. Organised crime indeed you hypocritic pack of bastards,you people are no better than James Hardy and gutless to boot.you hide behind the courts so no one can sue you lot of scum even though you knew you were selling a product that was killing people.Lucky for me even though back when I started smoking at 14 your packets didn’t have warnings on them but fortunately for me when the shit hit the fan I was able to have a double lung transplant to save my life but even so it has taken away 11 years of working life for me as it has disabled me and you get away with having to pay for it.Just in working time it has cost me around 11*$50,000,around $500,000.Thankyou all I don’t think.

    by canasta76 on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:10 pm

  23. Tanya made the point very clearly: One glass of wine won’t kill you but a cigarette is pure poison.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:11 pm

  24. guytaur

    so now it seems you’re saying that, because two people might be offended, the PM shouldn’t meet with the ACL.

    by zoomster on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:11 pm

  25. Today’s MPI:
    Mr Katter (Kennedy)
    “The need for urgent federal government intervention to divest the two supermarket giants and give owner operated business, Australian farmers and customers increased competition, greater choice and a fairer deal.”

    I can’t think who else would speak on it.

    by triton on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:12 pm

  26. Looks like Big Bac will be paying the government’s court costs, according to Nicola. Big seven figure sum.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:12 pm

  27. triton,

    It needs to have eight supporters to get to the starting gate.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:13 pm

  28. Why did Bandt call for a division? Wally.

    by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:14 pm

  29. @sarahinthesen8: Photo of one of the children detained on Nauru under Howard’s Pacific Solution. How many will there be under Gillard? http://t.co/XxAo8e2z

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:14 pm

  30. The media exist in their own very small world, don’t they.

    Jessica Wright ‏@jesswrightstuff
    I ride therefore i am? MT @AnnaMeares: Strangest media question today. U were unknown before these games, how's it feel to to be known now?

    by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:14 pm

  31. Morrison down in a screaming heap 68 – 72. Now, Bandt’s amendment.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:15 pm

  32. I hope the Cth did not have all its barristers on their special (read low) rates

    by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:15 pm

  33. Looks like Big Bac will be paying the government’s court costs, according to Nicola. Big seven figure sum.

    The word “karma” springs to mind.

    by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:15 pm

  34. SH-Y,

    Inspected any corpses out of the sea yet?

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:15 pm

  35. Zoomster – Yes that is how Guytaur is sounding and too a point I can understand that for we all cringes at the sight of the footage of Rumsfeld meeting with Saddam.

    by mexicanbeemer on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:16 pm

  36. I wonder if SH-Y will be organising weekend outings with her mates to build libraries at Nauru and Manus

    by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:16 pm

  37. Go away, Sarah in the Senate. Just let this work out for a bit.

    by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:16 pm

  38. zoomster

    Why are you defending the ACL? So strongly. I know that these feelings are out there in the gay community. I gave you two examples. Why should the PM support the antigay ACL when she is an atheist and there are many christian groups she can meet and not offend people in the gay community?

    Political consequence is what I am speaking about. Not my personal view or yours.

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:17 pm

  39. 3033

    Let them on the cheaper and safer planes and the boat safety issue goes away.

    by Tom the first and best on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:17 pm

  40. Rumsfeld didn’t tell Saddam to get stuffed.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:17 pm

  41. Spoilt brat Morriscum still implying that the legislation is basically restoring Howard’s “solution”.

    by BK on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:17 pm

  42. @sarahinthesen8: Photo of one of the children detained on Nauru under Howard’s Pacific Solution. How many will there be under Gillard? http://t.co/XxAo8e2z

    Not many. And they’ll be better off on Nauru than drowned. These people should accept that they’ve lost this argument, and devote their efforts to persuading their pals in Indonesia not to get on the boats.

    by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:18 pm

  43. Looks like NZ will be the next cab off the rank.

    Associate Minister of Health Tariana Turia says a decision by Australia's High Court to allow plain packaging of tobacco has given her extra confidence that any challenges to it in New Zealand will not succeed.......the Australian Court had sent a strong message that governments did have the right to develop legislation in their own territories.

    "This isn't only a win for the Australian Government."

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10827125

    by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:18 pm

  44. tobacco’s legal costs and those they pay of the Cth are tax deductible

    by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:18 pm

  45. I hope the Cth did not have all its barristers on their special (read low) rates

    The C’wlth takes a very ‘free-market’ view on its payments of fees to barristers.

    by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:19 pm

  46. Bandt and Wilkie versus the rest. Negatived.

    Now, consideration in detail.

    Scoot lying his face off.

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:19 pm

  47. [@sarahinthesen8: Photo of one of the children detained on Nauru under Howard’s Pacific Solution. How many will there be under Gillard? http://t.co/XxAo8e2z

    How about a photo of the children drowned at sea as a result of the green’s quest for moral superiority?

    by Tom Hawkins on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:19 pm

  48. @MayneReport: Now that Federal Labor has cleaned up Big Tobacco, it should take on the pokies giants who also pedal hugely dangerous & damaging products”

    by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:19 pm

  49. Is Bandt waving or drowning?

    by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:20 pm

  50. [@sarahinthesen8: Photo of one of the children detained on Nauru under Howard’s Pacific Solution. How many will there be under Gillard? http://t.co/XxAo8e2z

    How about a photo of the children drowned at sea as a result of the green’s quest for moral superiority?

    by Tom Hawkins on Aug 15, 2012 at 1:21 pm

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