Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-ally-faces-flegg-challenge-20120815-247xr.html
more in the article
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:17 pm
It got to be over for the liberals now
Abbott has nothing left in the tank to attack
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Julian had better make sure he doesn’t set foot on British soil in getting to the Ecuadorian plane.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:19 pm
shellbell
Thanks much appreciated, and of course, take all the time you need.
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Paul Austin
You mean like the terrorist attack on the King David Hotel ?
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:19 pm
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/slipper-moves-to-cut-off-ashby-leak-claim-20120815-2489d.html
more detail in this article
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Puffy
I went to the Belair Hotel last week. Had a very yummy pan-fried gnocchi with mushrooms.
Perhaps coincidentally I saw Iain Evans there.
by Diogenes on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:21 pm
@GrogsGamut: blog post: Once again wages fail to breakout – http://t.co/5U58Zqdv
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:21 pm
it was a pathetic effort from the liberals under abbott today
the attack is old and stale
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Re Israel and Palestine 3153 Paul Austin
___________
Since the illegal occupation of the West bank after 1967 the massive immigration into the territories of Jewish settlers from outside has been an ongoing breach of international law and a constant daily assault on the Palestinian people
Israel is increasingly seen by many as a kind of rogue state ,but with the help of the US it flouts all UN Declarations on Palestine
As for Jerusalem it’s a holy city to Moslems too second only to Mecca.,but many in Israel want the total annexation of the city .
This has also put pressure on Christian groups in the city The Vatican and other Christian churches has been critics of Israeli teatment of Chistian minorities in the West Bank and Jerusalem too
But Isaeli extemists like the Likud Govt are deaf to any critics…assuming they will always have a friend in the White House
In Obama’s case there is much debate in the US which suggests he is the least sympathetic US President since Carter…whose recent book’Palestine-Peace not Apartheid”
is a fair summary of the issue
It hasn’t stopped strident criticism of Carter from zionist groups in the US and here.
In New York a while ago I ws handed a leaflet outside a bookshop where his book was on sale which asked..”.Why Does Jiimmy Carter hate the Jews “…a nasty slander.
It’s effect on me was to make me buy(and read ) his book
Uri Avenery.an elderly Israeli writer and an early zionist now sees what he calls “the whole zionist project ” at long-term risk ,and there are many Jewish critics in the US who share his views,,,the writers on “Mondoweiss” a NY Jewish blog of note
One must assume that there is a lot of history still to come in the Middle East..,.,and who knows how events will play out
Few foresaw the coming of the Arab Spring or the Egyptian Revolution and how they might impact on Israel,,,note this weeks events in Sinai
One thing is sure…no state where the Moslem Brotherhood has a role in political matters…as it does now in Egypt… will ever except the current state of Palestine and the suffering of it’s people
by deblonay on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Guytaur – Lets pretend for a moment that I was PM and I received an invite from the H.R Nicholls Society to speak about my vision of Industrial Relations.
Now I am not a fan of that lobby group but I would see it has a wonderful opportunity to put forward an alternative approach to I.R and workplace management.
Are you telling me that would be a bad thing politically even though I would be very confident that my approach is way better than theirs.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:22 pm
guytaur #3244, yes, thanks, particularly given who mine is …
by Marrickville Mauler on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:22 pm
@ABCNews24: Commonwealth Bank posts a $7.1bn profit, largest non-mining profit in Aust. Economist Tony Farnham discusses now http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:24 pm
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/mixed-messages-on-court-outsourcing-plans-20120815-24869.html
dear oh dear
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm
It looks like the liberals are facing defeat next year and going through the motions til they have a new leader
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm
mexi
Totally different. The like group of comparison is the Jewish Lobby. For similar reasons.
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:25 pm
@AuSenate: Senator Lin Thorp will be giving her first speech in the Senate today at approximately 5pm
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Diogenes,
You’ll probably be very unlikely to see Dr Southcott MP there too often in the near future!
by scorpio on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Or they could go but bring someone from the ACCC with them and insist on 45% off the bill …
by Marrickville Mauler on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:27 pm
http://grogsgamut.blogspot.com.au/2012/08/june-quarter-wpi-shows-once-again-wages.html
by Leroy on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:28 pm
New study in PNAS says humans didn’t interbreed with Neanderthals.
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/sci-tech/humans-didnt-breed-with-neanderthals/story-fn5jhw50-1226450517393
by Diogenes on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:28 pm
I think the ultimate solution to the issues of Israel is for a two state solution with
- The West Bank being declared a new country.
- Gaza given back to the Egyptians.
- Jerusalem being declared a special city of international importance with a government council made up with equal representation of all the faiths that call it a holy city.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Leroy
DIY government. Again. Mr Newman boasted of his disdain for processes when he first came in. He was simply too inexperienced and too arrogant to have any inkling that good process looks after you.
Shambolic processes or a lack of process does the opposite.
BTW, the experiment of having the Opposition leader outside of parliament on a buy-before-you-see basis has exposed Queenslanders to dangerous risks.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:29 pm
@ClayLucas: Education Dept to cut 700 jobs says CPSU, following mass mtg of bureaucrats at Dallas Brooks today – not 400 jobs Baillieu Govt had promised
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:29 pm
I had an uncle who used to say it that way. It’s the only time I have ever heard it.
It’s not unusual though for people to grow up getting certain sayings wrong.
For example “in one foul swoop” instead of “in one fell swoop”.
There are others but I can’t think of them at the moment.
by Darn on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Diogenes
Bugger. Back to the drawing board on my theory about the origins of the LNP.
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm
@smh: Shots, doubles and glassware will be banned in all Kings Cross licensed venues on Friday and Saturday nights under… http://t.co/6bXKdHft
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Out of curiousity, tried to find information about Silver City Cinemas at Broken Hill.
Must be the only cinema in the country which doesn’t have its own website (if it has one, I couldn’t find it). Which suggests it’s lacking some basic business skills, to begin with.
According to Sussan Ley, they’ve cut sessions down from thirty a week to fifteen due to a $4,500 jump in their power bill ‘due to the carbon tax’.
So they were running thirty sessions a week. We’ll assume they weren’t totally stupid, and that these sessions averaged 20 customers. That’s 600 customers a week.
We’ll go with 50 weeks a year (although I think cinemas are year round operations).
That’s 3000 tickets.
So an extra $1.50 per ticket. Scarcely break the bank. And not as if they’d have much competition.
Seems far more likely that 30 sessions a week in Broken Hill just wasn’t a viable business plan.
But, of course, most sessions would see far more than 10 customers.
by zoomster on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:32 pm
poroti
No your drawing board theory is right. It just they are not human.
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Mr Asbhy is stressed – the C’wlth wants to see the Clinical Psychologist’s notes …
Mr Slippers Lawyers – lets get rid of the Constitutional stuff by removing ‘Unlawful’ and expedite the hearing of the case.
Bring it on.
by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:32 pm
@TheKouk: Can Mr Hockey read data? In the 2 mths since carbon tax, consumer sentiment is up: it rose 3.7% in July; fell 2.5% in Aug; net increase 1.0%
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:32 pm
They are probably Katter interjections we are hearing now and then. They’ll continue for the whole MPI I imagine.
by triton on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Guytaur – it may be a difference but earlier you were talking about perception, would the likes of Zoomster and Victoria and Psephos etc be concerned if their leader was attending and speaking at a forum of a lobby group that they disagreed with.
Put it another way, would Mod Lib or Rummel or Glen be concerned if Tone gave a speech to a Trade Union Conference.
by mexicanbeemer on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Now what indeed. The Government don’t seem at all unhappy to talk about Carbon Pricing, what with all the compensation payments that Tony would rip away, and almost total meh it has created in the real world. Very pleased to talk about it all day long.
But then of course they’re happy to talk about boats too now. Seeing as how they are determined to implement ALL 22 recommendations of the Houston report that the Libs have been saying vindicates their own policy.
As well as talking about all of the other achievements of the government, like low unemployment, low inflation, low inflation, NBN, NDIS, and on and on. I’m sure Swan would love to talk about the MRRT if only someone on the other side would ask him about it.
Pyne looks like he’s going to try on the old “private school hit list” meme over Gonski, but I’m not so sure that one’s going to go as well as it has in the past.
Traction might be a little harder to come by from today onwards.
by ratsak on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Re IO,OOO tons Euro Trawler fishing off our coastline
______________________________
Wilkie and The Greens in Tas. have collected 35-000 signatures to their petition condemning the Fed Govt’s decision to allow this to happen
Why is it being allowed ” Does anyone know a good reason ??
by deblonay on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Is it only a matter of time before most of the ME population disappears in a storm of nuclear clouds or by way of an anthropogenic disease?
Is there any sign at all, or any hope at all, of any other apotheosis?
Right now, I have great difficulty seeing an alternative vision.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:35 pm
No dumb Tony would ask that because the answer would include savings in the health budget that would offset revenue loss. Then again, Tone, as with all Tories deals in prices and not values. Simplifying it? Yes. To Tone’s level? No. He just hasn’t thought of a three word slogan to slag off plain packaging yet. But he will…
by Roy Orbison on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:36 pm
mexi
No the perception prism is how the Jewish Lobby would see a PM going to the Local Hamas meeting as a comparison.
Your attempts are different perceptions of symbolism. That being any PM going to HR Nicholls would make it plain why first up. Silence would get a reaction similar to Ms Jackson speaking at the place.
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Darn @ 3274:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/479915
7/Damp-Squid-The-top-10-misquoted-phrases-in-Britain.html
by Jaeger on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Liberals are rooted under Abbott and I don’t care what the polls say.
by Gecko on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:37 pm
deblonay
Fishery quotas are set by fish type. Whether the quotas are collected by one big ship or one thousand rowboats makes very little practical difference, IMHO.
I fail to see what the fuss is about.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:38 pm
The Liberals don’t carry batons in the knapsacks. They carry machetes.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:39 pm
I wonder how Sen SHY sleeps at night
by The Finnigans on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:39 pm
‘New study in PNAS says humans didn’t interbreed with Neanderthals.’
So how do you account for Tony Abbott?
by rosemour on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Assume any moves Slipper’s lawyers make will be to get the case dealt with quicker and any moves Ashby’s lawyers make will be to delay things as long as possible
by spur212 on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:40 pm
I’ve been to the Silver City Cinema as well!! I’m a carbon tax curse!!
by Diogenes on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Re Assenge TLBD 3252
__________
He better make sure he doesn’t set foot on Australian soil.too..Australian though he is…as Gillard would be all to ready to comply with whatever instructions she gets from the White House.,,,you know…when asked to Jump..she replies “How high ..Master “
by deblonay on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:42 pm
My Tory Central’s APN daily “The Chronicle’s” (dead tree version) front page headline reads Job cuts create fear and anger and page 3 headline Public sector morale at an all-time low with a quotation from “Department of Education, Training and Employment boss”
The online version, however, has removed the above from its main leads, & the story is now relegated to a page, to access which one must press the link more News wherein the Front Page leader disappears, and the p3 header is reduced to Public sector morale low
Only a deeply incredulous cynic would suggest that there had been some sort of political intervention by the LNP
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Why is Ashby’s legal team briefing Australia’s leading expert in bi-polar disorder?
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Wouldn’t this let Lewis off the hook?
by Diogenes on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:43 pm