Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
AJ-E news on SBS is describing the changes to AS law as ‘deterring Indonesian’s from coming to Australia’.
by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Boerwar
I reckon they carry sjambok’s. Nasty pieces of work associated with a nasty regime.
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Boerwar re fish quotas
______
Why would we allow fish to be taken in such large amounts from our own waters
Surely it should be left there for Australian use
There have been such complaints recently from Argentina and Chile…the Euros have fished out much of the North Sea and the Med. now they invade our waters
by deblonay on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:45 pm
The Cwth Bank announces a record profit despite challenging economic times. How do they get awy with this crap?
by Toorak Toff on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:46 pm
I can say that, as a candidate and as a policy writer, I’ve met with gun lobby groups, Alpine cattle grazers, irrigators, battery hen operators, private school lobbyists and so on.
I’d happily meet with anti abortion groups, too.
Just because you know you’re going to disagree with someone doesn’t mean you deny them the opportunity to put their case to you.
by zoomster on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Abbott skipped all the evolutionary steps after arboreal primate in deepest, darkest Africa, perhaps?
by OzPol Tragic on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:47 pm
@HelenRazer: @wendy_harmer I genuinely cannot believe there is a poll on a prominent website asking if clothes for children are “too sexy”. Call a doctor
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Diogenes
Could there be a deal ? “I’ll drop the criminal charge if you give/tell us ……….”
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:48 pm
@AuSenate: The Senate has varied its routine of business for tomorrow to allow for debate on the Migration Legislation (Regional Processing) Bill
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:48 pm
@MikeKellyMP Mike, great piece on #TheDrum http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4199988.html – you should be more forceful in debunking Abbott’s mythical TURN THE BOATs & SHY’s attitude
by The Finnigans on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Correct
today showed it bad for the liberals
Abbott has nothing but the old stale back to the carbon price
and lie and get caught out on them
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:51 pm
This was the final straw which has taken the puff out of the liberals and their chances
if they remain with abbott as leader
by Meguire Bob on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm
ruawake@3298,
In their guts they know he’s nuts?
Sorry, shouldn’t be so cruel but couldn’t resist.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm
@Colvinius: Awful, awful, awful interviewer gets just desserts from interviewee: http://t.co/UsP5j1gD h/t @woblord
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Paul Austin:
I suppose that depends on how one defines “terrorism”. Admittedly the actions of the Mossad/IDF weren’t against western targets. Mind you, Begin started out as a terrorist under the Palestine mandate …
In any event, the fact that some people in the 1970s engaged in criminal attacks on non-combatants that they identified with Israel is not a reason for denying people 40 years later their right to an autonomous state.
Pesphos:
I suspect that if a state based on the 1967 borders and a capital at East Jerusalem were conceded there would be the basis for a settlement in which the Palestinians recognised Israel. Right of return is important though, given that Israel is pretty much holding itself out as a magnet for all Jews everywhere. I’m not sure how many would qualify and want to exercise the right in practice, so it seems odd that Israel would still refuse to make this concession unless the status quo works for them.
It’s hard to escape the impression that they need the conflict to keep the US aid. Maybe that is where policy should start.
by Fran Barlow on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:52 pm
A fine article indeed by Mike Kelly.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:54 pm
@RichardDiNatale: Unlike tobacco executives I’ve had to look into the eyes of patients & tell them that they have lung cancer #plainpacks http://t.co/Wcor5oSG
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:55 pm
God I hate the smug assumption of members of those hominids who arrogantly call themselves Homo Sapiens Sapiens (Homo Abusis Genocidis would be more accurate).
by swamprat on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:58 pm
No
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 3:59 pm
From Mike Kelly’s excellent article, speaking about the multi-party group who tried to find a way around the AS impasse last June -
by leone on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:00 pm
MTBW
Learned counsel to the fore on right to silence.
http://archive.nswbar.asn.au/database/in_brief/inbrief.article.php?i=4418
As long as coppers put the boot into arrested persons and then lie about it, their further entitlements seem moot to me.
by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Welsh Rabbit?
by Roy Orbison on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:01 pm
The Greens are getting really desperate to milk this Asylum Seeker policy deal between the Opposition and the government for all the new members they can. Which, as their own Watermelon blog stated, is how they approach public relations wrt their party.
Today on Twitter, Sarah Hanson-Young was circulating a picture of a child previously detained on Nauru during the Pacific Solution:
http://twitpic.com/ajk0x7
and disingenuously trying to link that picture to the likelihood of an equivalent outcome for children under the new arrangements. Not once mentioning that this new arrangement is to have built into it a suite of protections, one of which is definitely no fences around the Processing Centre, that John Howard never countenanced during the Pacific Solution.
Such a pathetic attempt to revivify old saws and bogeymen by The Greens just proves that they cannot be taken seriously on this issue.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:02 pm
AJ may have shown one of the ‘little’ things that can be a problem with their coverage today but DW on SBS visually pleasing again today.
by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Is that what you get when you cross Julia Gillard with Tony Abbott?
by Danny Lewis on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Is SH-Y shedding a tear for the 1000 or so who have drowned trying to get here?
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:05 pm
No, if that happened, you’d get a bloke with no balls. No, wait a sec. That’s what happens when Tony crosses Julia…
by Roy Orbison on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:06 pm
That’s because all Sarah Hanson-Young is concerned about is running a PR campaign on Twitter. A completely irresponsible and immature approach to a serious issue.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:06 pm
… and when Peter Dutton faces Nicola Roxon.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Darn
This is called “an eggcorn” — supposedly because someone once misheard “acorn” as eggcorn”. The funniest alltime eggcorn I’ve ever heard was someone (presumably a left-of-centre person having a go at Sarah Palin in 2008 who referred to Sarah Palin and her elk {ilk}. For mine, the humour there can never be topped.
Other good ones include:
“duck tape” (probably because there is an actual brand of tape called just that); “chomping at the bit”; “sposmadic” (Dorrie Evans, No96 1973); “a new leash on life”; “buck naked” …
by Fran Barlow on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:07 pm
TLBD: no. Interestingly, this seems to be the one thing the Greens don’t want to talk about.
I heard a vague argument on Twitter that if we open our borders and hasten the speed of processing in other countries then that somehow means the boats will stop.
Made me LOL, but maybe I’m the one missing something about what is happening now.
by Danny Lewis on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Is there any update on Southcott? Moves against him regarding misleading the House?
by Burgey on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:09 pm
TLBD@3325,
Blithely she will mouth the platitudinous and casually dismissive line that they should have been given plane tickets to Australia, then they wouldn’t have drowned. It’s her ‘Get Out of Jail Free’ card.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Isn’t that George Costanza’s porn name?
by Danny Lewis on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:10 pm
That’s what Barak and Clinton offered Arafat in 2000, and he rejected it because he could not bring himself to recognise Israel. As I said before, the ball is in the Palestinian court (or whatever the correct sports metaphor is). When they recognise Israel, as a Jewish state (which must mean no “right of return”), then serious talks can begin. Time is on Israel’s side here, because the longer the Palestinians delay, the harder a two-state solution will become.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Burgey,
The MPI is over in 2 minutes. Might get some Southcott action then.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Fran
Surely young far left-wingers didn’t watch no 96.
by CTar1 on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:11 pm
I keep wondering if The Silver City Cinema in Broken Hill has suddenly decided not to have any screenings at all tonight.
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:11 pm
rosemour,
Maybe he’s just a left-over Neanderthal or a “throw-back” or something!.
I reckon he walks like one anyway if nothing else!
by scorpio on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Mr Cobb is making no sense whatsoever.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:12 pm
is there a link to Mike kelly`s piece
by my say on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Hang on you lot. The one hour is up!
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:13 pm
my say
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/4199988.html
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Victoria
As per the SMH article the withdrawal of the allegation about unlawfulness is designed to cut off the constitutional point.
If the dissemination of the information was permissible constitutionally (a very big if) whether it was unlawful otherwise or not would seem irrelevant to me. I doubt it will change much.
by shellbell on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Ignoramus moment alert!
So, if someone has been found to have Mislead the House, what is the standard operating procedure wrt follow-up and action?
by C@tmomma on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:15 pm
@ABCNews24: Immigration Minister @BowenChris joins @ABCNews24 next to discuss offshore processing amendments passed today http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Thanks shellbell
by victoria on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Mike Kelly sets out the “problem” and the “solution” most admirably. Writes clearly and with sincerity. Bravo.
by lizzie on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Towle from UNHCR is in broad agreement with the Houston plan. Sad day for Bandt and his fellow conservatives.
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:20 pm
@ABCNews24: Live Now: @lyndalcurtis speaks to Immigration Minister @BowenChris on today’s passing of offshore processing laws http://t.co/AhggUgUN
by guytaur on Aug 15, 2012 at 4:20 pm