Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition
This week’s Essential Research shows no real change on voting intention, with the Coalition still leading 56-44 from primary votes of 32% for Labor (down one), 49% for the Coalition (steady) and 10% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which likewise show little shift. Julia Gillard is down a point on both approval and disapproval, to 31% and 57%. Tony Abbott is respectively up one to 36% and down two to 51%, and his lead as preferred prime minister is up from 38-37 to 38-36 (I guess not too many people heard this then). A question on same-sex marriage finds 54% supportive and 33% opposed, respectively steady and down two on a year ago.
Preselection snippets:
• Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports Gary “Angry” Anderson will seek Nationals preselection in Gilmore, the southern New South Wales seat which will be vacated at the election by the retirement of Liberal member Joanna Gash.
• In the neighbouring seat of Hume, where Liberal member Alby Schultz is retiring, Coorey further reports that state upper house MP Niall Blair is a further possibility as Nationals candidate, together with presumed front-runners Senator Fiona Nash and state government minister Katrina Hodgkinson. Leslie White of the Weekly Times recently reported both Nationals and Liberal internal polling had the Liberals ahead in the seat, but the Nationals remained confident they could win with Nash or Hodgkinson running.
• The Australian reports Matt Adamson, former Canberra, Penrith and national rugby league player, has been sounded out by the Liberals to run against Rob Oakeshott in Lyne. The Nationals have already endorsed David Gillespie, a local doctor who was best man at Tony Abbott’s wedding.
• The Victorian ALP has taken care of a whole bunch of preselection business, re-endorsing all sitting members and confirming Slater & Gordon lawyer Andrew Giles to succeed Harry Jenkins in Scullin, and United Voice official Lisa Chesters to succeed Steve Gibbons in Bendigo. The preselection for Melbourne will be held on August 26, with 2010 candidate Cath Bowtell considered the front-runner but Harvey Stern, president of Labor for Refugees Victoria, is also in the field.
• John Hogg, Queensland Labor Senator since 1996 and the chamber’s current President, has announced he will not re-contest the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports Shop, Distributive and Allied Employees Union state secretary Chris Ketter is “among the frontrunners” to replace him as a Labor Senate candidate – remembering that Labor won three Senate seats in Queensland in 2007, and the party fears it may only win one next year.
Categories: Federal Politics 2010-
I wouldn’t expect any immediate movement. It will take a fairly long run of good news for Gillard even to begin to recover from the horror year she had last year. And of course Rudd will go on leaking and destabilising. But the next poll in Qld might be interesting.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Yes it is, because the stimulus was worked out by Treasury modelling and it was spot on. There is no tad in it. Less stimulus, more unemployment, less tax receipts, higher dole, less money. Recession.
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Asylum Seekrs 3rd on ABC TV News headlines after Plain Packaging (1) and “Kings Cross Crackdown” (2).
So much for Tony Abbott’s day of fulfillment.
by Bushfire Bill on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Pity the Treasuries of Europe didn’t learn from ours.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Deblonay
Once caught, however and by whomever, our fish commodities are not subject to international trade barriers. The vessal is not ‘invading’ Australia. It will operate using a licence owned by an Australian fishing company. The quantity itself is irrelevant. Allowable catch limits vary both by species and over time. Usually and in the broad, it is the proportion of the population caught which is the key issue. AFMA will have a full-time fishing inspector on board the vessal.
The protests about this vessal are little more than a disgraceful mixture of scientific ignorance, xenophobia, nationalism, and populism. You should be deeply suspicious about the motives and integrity of any politician who willingly associates themselves with this vicious melange.
http://www.afma.gov.au/2012/07/fishing-regulator-re-affirms-management-is-watertight/
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:03 pm
ruawake:
The federal government was still spending on the stimulus when the Reserve Bank was putting up interest rates to slow things down!
by Mod Lib on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Hear hear.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Aguirre
Corporate ethics will always be lower under a Liberal government. See also banknote scandal.
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:06 pm
CTar1
And it was only the other day that I was able to disabuse HH of some significant anglophone misconceptions he was under in relation to the Malaya Peninsula/NEI campaigns.
Such gratitude.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Katy Gallagher is starting needle exchange in our (ACT) prison. The guards are objecting. Presumably they prefer to be stuck with a dirty needle rather than a clean one.
Katy is doing well.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:09 pm
The RBA did not put up rates to slow things down, it returned them to stimulatory from emergency levels. If it had not done we would have Howard level inflation.
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:09 pm
There will be fewer recalls under a Coalition government.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Can someone please confirm whether the Member for Dobell voted on the Migration Bill today?
TGE TAINT!!!! IT BURNS!!!!
by Burgey on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:10 pm
Some people don’t understand how monetary and fiscal policies should interact. It’s not Curiosity science.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:12 pm
TLBD
The key issue here is whether the middlemen (the screws) will be cut out of the trade. The logical policy consequence of making needles available is making drugs available.
The ACT Government will not be doing that, as I undestand it. Silly.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Burgery
Craig Thomson voted with Abbott to support the bill.
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Bushfire Bill
The timing of the AS report + legislation and the HC decision seems fiendishly cunning or fortuitous. The Coals natural efforts to make a noise over the gov’s “backflip” on AS drowned out by the ciggie news.
by poroti on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Only two “voted” against the bill: Bandt and Wilkie. Didn’t go to a vote because of lack of interest: you need more than five (?) for heads to be counted.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Mod Lib @ 3529
And I strongly support naming that recently discovered piece of rock out there “Goofey”, in honour of you.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Boerwar’s WW2 commentary is much appreciated by fellow history pedants. If you don’t like history pedants you should stay off the internet. We rule.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Boerwar,
Supervision by doctors, as I heard it.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:15 pm
poroti
I imagine that more people have had rellies killed by tobacco than have met asylum seekers in any context.
I thought Ms Plibersek’s line that, for anyone who had lost someone to tobacco, ‘…this one’s for you…’ was the best line from the Gubbies for many a long month.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:15 pm
The PM doesn’t have enough time or political capital for a long run of good news. I suspect Shorten, Smith or someone else who has the numbers will have made a move by then (I’m leaving out Rudd because you all think it’s impossible that he’ll be drafted and I’ve been over it enough)
by spur212 on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:15 pm
But it’s not a planet.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:16 pm
TLBD
That is excellent news. Good on Ms Gallagher. No wonder the screws don’t like it. There goes half their income.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:16 pm
If you don’t like WW2 commentary there is always cooking, or sport, or polls …
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:16 pm
I saw Rudd on SBS news. He said wtte that he had promised to STFU and he was doing so
BUT
he did say that the minister had handled the AS issue very well and he supported the outcome.
Can’t ask for more than that.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Boerwar,
Tanya was also careful to point out that a glass of wine is not fatal.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:18 pm
They could have had the news all to themselves yesterday, but as Matt Franklin said the Lib backbench insisted on rubbing Gillard’s nose in it.
By doing so they lost the news cycle. Dumbos.
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Shorten will wait till after the election. Smith would be willing to be drafted but he won’t move otherwise.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:18 pm
… bless ‘er!
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:18 pm
TH
In the language of Ms Hanson-Young, he suckered you there and then.
He should have said, ‘Prime Minister Gillard has done an excellent job is sorting out yet another of my legacy messes.’
What he did instead was praise the work of one of his supporters and to keep silent on Ms Gillard.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:19 pm
TLBD
She would be right, of course, in relation to the first glass of wine.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Small mercies, Boerwar, small mercies.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Psephos
Thank you for your kind comment.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:21 pm
I think she said “one”. About as definitive as “a”. Clever lady.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:22 pm
TLBD
Ahem. I was projecting.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:23 pm
Mod Lib @ 3545
A blatant lie!
I admit Howard et al did very well for their constituency, the top few percent of income earners.
Like a faithful dog, they served their masters well.
by bemused on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:24 pm
BW:
When Richard Glover on Drive, playing Devils’ Advocate asked her about the violation of the property pof tobacco companies, Plibersek noted that the tobacco companies made a living out of people dying.
I thought that was pretty snappy …
by Fran Barlow on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Boerwar,
Sybil.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:24 pm
I notice that last night my local member and former employer, Michael Danby, got up in the House and said plainly that he’d been wrong to oppose offshore processing. Not many politicians are willing to admit error.
by Psephos on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:25 pm
Diogenes
There are 9 Muslims out of 120 members of the Knesset plus 7 Druze and Christian, who while Arab are not Muslim.
It is a little more representative than I had thought but if 20% of the population are Arab then one might expect perhaps 20 or more.
However I somehow think 4 Arabs are banned from the Knessett because they do not accept a Jewish state. Not sure
It is also not clear how many of the Knessett are Shefardic Jews (ie locals) as opposed to European Jews. Think there is a bit of discrimination against the Jewish Arabs as well as the Muslim Arabs
by daretotread on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:25 pm
poroti,
League sheepens coming to play Oz at Bruce Stadium next year.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:26 pm
fb
True.
by Boerwar on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:31 pm
As if.
He did as much as any reasonable person could have expected from him considering all that has transpired. He could have said
“No comment”
which would have raised a few eyebrows. All up he did OK and certainly didn’t feed the leadership fire which going by the look on his face is now no more than a small candle of energy.
by Tom Hawkins on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:32 pm
IPA weeping about tobacco decision “evil”
by Schnappi on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:35 pm
Seeing that the IPA is backing Big Bac (thank you, Tim Wilson), will the ABC continue to give them air space?
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:35 pm
by Schnappi on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:36 pm
I wonder how much “sponsorship” the IPA will lose?
by ruawake on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:37 pm
HoR is going home for the day. They’ve had enough.
by This little black duck on Aug 15, 2012 at 7:37 pm